Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2023-24 season part III

[devilsblood]

A major flaw of bringing Shesterkin and Vas into this discussion, and putting them on the Vitek side of the debate is, those guys are excellent goalies who have played very well in the playoffs.

Vitek is a meh goalie who has gawd awful playoff numbers.

If I'm a Rag's fan I have some confidence Shesterkin turns it around in the playoffs. Same with TB and Vassy, but Dev's, I feel we can not go into the playoffs with Vitek as our #1. Not after last years playoffs, and especially not after backing up last years playoffs with this years regular season.

 

[Guttersniped]

That depends on who you're trading him for. He's a good player but he's not an untouchable piece and this is his last year on his ELC, so he's not going to be cheap moving forward. If you can get a legit top 5 goaltender in the league in Saros for him I don't see how that's a terrible trade.

Not to mention that focusing on most points in a draft class when you're not that far removed from it is not really a big indicator of future success. Are you really going to take Mercer over Sanderson, Byfield or Faber just because he has more points in the NHL at this time? Not to mention all the other players from that draft that are at least on a similar level to Mercer as a young talent.

He’s not “untouchable” but I don’t want to trade Mercer for Saros either. If I wanted to give 30 year old goalie a Hellebuyck-esque contract I would have pushed for a Hellebuyck trade.

I don’t like the risk of those. If people disagree that’s cool but that’s where I’m at.

It’s some indicator of success? Or we getting Byfield or Sanderson or Faber in a trade? (I’d take Quinn to but I don’t think he’ll get traded either.)

I’m comparing him to every young forward in our system and the one’s we’re likely to draft. You limit your “core” to a few untouchables and then never worry about secondary scoring or the future.

Our other best supporting forwards are 30-something. We got one by trading young unsigned RFAs or with big contracts that ends when he’s 36.

We’re out of young unsigned RFAs and the UFA route is only going to get pricier as the cap goes up.

To me Mercer plays a perfect style for today’s NHL and has a high hockey sense, I think his defense improves.

If he goes the number of wingers on this team with a knack for greasy goals goes to zero.

 

[JimEIV]

It's not shallow. It's simple logic.

Acting like we score "meaningless" goals is silly. We need almost every goal we score with Vitek out there.

We score meaningless goals in losses A LOT.

You go into the 3rd down 3-1, 4-1, or down by two in any combination....you have already lost that game statistically. But we almost always finish the game getting a little closer. Those are absolutely meaningless goals..and we do it all the time.

 

[Guadana]

Just watching the game, no website or anything

Damn. It would be helpful in "bljah bljah bljah Paljat is not scjoring enoogh fjor his biggesty biggest deal and IT WOULD HURT US!" situations.

 

[glenwo2]

Bratt’s ability to shield off defenders and keep his balance when cutting to the net has made him a much better player. He did it a couple times last game and drew a penalty because of it. Jack needs to put the work in.

Maybe he needs to work out with Bratt and his trainer this offseason?

Still trying to digest the devils uni's.

The final couple minutes of the game I started to like them. Think I might like them better without the shoulder blacks? But obviously they are what they are.

Love all the post game gear though. Haula's hat. Ruff's baseball cap and sweatshirt. Liking these looks.

What I didn't like was the black numbers that made it difficult to identify who is who on the ice.

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

We score meaningless goals in losses A LOT.

You go into the 3rd down 3-1, 4-1, or down by two in any combination....you have already lost that game statistically. But we almost always finish the game getting a little closer. Those are absolutely meaningless goals..and we do it all the time.

If you are down 3 or 4 to 1 heading into the third and you score goals to make it a closer game and potentially come back to tie it or win than that qualifies as " meaningless goals " ?

A meaningless goal is scoring on an empty net when you team is up 6 to 3 and the other team pulls their goalie with 5 minutes left in the game. Or if you are getting blown out 6 to 1 and you score a goal with 1 minute left in the game to make it 6 to 2.

No team gives up whe trailing by 2 or 3 goals heading into the 3rd. A 2 goal lead is virtually nothing nowadays and even a 3 goal lead I see teams blow alot.more frequently now the way the game is played.

 

[Guadana]

That depends on who you're trading him for. He's a good player but he's not an untouchable piece and this is his last year on his ELC, so he's not going to be cheap moving forward. If you can get a legit top 5 goaltender in the league in Saros for him I don't see how that's a terrible trade.

Not to mention that focusing on most points in a draft class when you're not that far removed from it is not really a big indicator of future success. Are you really going to take Mercer over Sanderson, Byfield or Faber just because he has more points in the NHL at this time? Not to mention all the other players from that draft that are at least on a similar level to Mercer as a young talent.

He should be good enough to play on the level as 15-25th best player from the draft. He is playing better. Points helps to understand how bad or good he is for his age. He is very good. Its not a problem of him and Lazar that Devils cant find normal third line center for him and forechecking winger for Jack when Haula should play for bigger role than he was signed for.

 

[JimEIV]

If you are down 3 or 4 to 1 heading into the third and you score goals to make it a closer game and potentially come back to tie it or win than that qualifies as " meaningless goals " ?

A meaningless goal is scoring on an empty net when you team is up 6 to 3 and the other team pulls their goalie with 5 minutes left in the game. Or if you are getting blown out 6 to 1 and you score a goal with 1 minute left in the game to make it 6 to 2.

No team gives up whe training by 2 or 3 golf heading into the 3rd. A 2 goal lead is virtually nothing nowadays and even a 3 goal lead I see teams blow alot.more frequently now the way the game is played.

Go look at at NHL teams records when trailing by 2 after 2 periods. It's a loss.

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

Go look at at NHL teams records when trailing by 2 after 2 periods. It's a loss.

Yeah statistically it probably is. You still don't give up. A loser mentality when trailing by 2 is almost as bad as being a team consistently down by 2 heading into the 3rd period. The point is a 2 goal lead isn't safe and any gol to get you realistically back in is big.

 

[Unknown Caller]

If you see the goals that Vanecek gives up and you think he isn't the problem or that he's just a victim of the team, you either aren't watching the game or you're being intentionally obtuse in your analysis. The guy is the worst goalie in the league and that's not an exaggeration.

 

[guitarguyvic]

How can playing from behind be solely a criticism of the offense? You’d have to go back and analyze each game for context….did the team have a ton of great scoring chances but fail to capitalize, how long did it take for the opposition to score, how was the defense, did the goalie give up a weak goal, etc etc etc.

From my recollection, this team has played like junk in the first periods - particularly on D and with the goaltending.

Regarding “garbage time” goals…The devils are a top 5 offensive team. Yes score effects is a thing, but not to the extent that you can say that the only reason the team has good offensive numbers is that they can only score when the game is out of reach, which a certain poster seems to be implying.

The D and goalie stats are amongst the worst in the league. They have recently fixed those issues and what do you know they look like a playoff team again.

You have to be really reaching to blame the offense for this team’s struggles.

 

[JimEIV]

Yeah statistically it probably is. You still don't give up. A loser mentality when trailing by 2 is almost as bad as being a team consistently down by 2 heading into the 3rd period. The point is a 2 goal lead isn't safe and any gol to get you realistically back in is big.

A 2 goal lead after two periods is pretty damn safe. Probably less than 50 of those turn into wins a year out of 2624 games

If you see the goals that Vanecek gives up and you think he isn't the problem or that he's just a victim of the team, you either aren't watching the game or you're being intentionally obtuse in your analysis. The guy is the worst goalie in the league and that's not an exaggeration.

I don't think he's been "good".... I think many of you are ignoring the absolutely horrific coverage and overall defense we have gotten until recently.

It's been bad

 

[Bcap88]

This week has nearly doubled our playoff odds

Sitting at about 40 percent depending on where you look

 

[Forge]

This week has nearly doubled our playoff odds

Sitting at about 40 percent depending on where you look

It's a very weird spot for the deadline. Do you buy when you're that close? Is that too high to sell? I don't think we are selling unless we really fall off over the next three weeks, but I still don't love buying unless it's some multi year acquisitions (no rentals).

 

[longislanddevil]

In regards to Saros, I read the Kings are sniffing around. Who else could be interested and make it work? Edmonton? Carolina? Both teams have shored up their goaltending woes for the time being. Toronto? Nashville may not get the kind of return they’d be looking for because the teams in the market for a goalie have seemingly shrunk. Then again, they don’t have too much incentive to make a deal now when they can take it to the summer.

 

[My3Sons]

It's a very weird spot for the deadline. Do you buy when you're that close? Is that too high to sell? I don't think we are selling unless we really fall off over the next three weeks, but I still don't love buying unless it's some multi year acquisitions (no rentals).

The good news is they don’t have to make that decision yet. Let some more games play out see where they are

 

[Better Call Sal]

A 2 goal lead after two periods is pretty damn safe. Probably less than 50 of those turn into wins a year out of 2624 games


I don't think he's been "good".... I think many of you are ignoring the absolutely horrific coverage and overall defense we have gotten until recently.

It's been bad

You'd have to do a goal-by-goal analysis to really assess which one is the greater source of the problem. There have been plenty of times where the defense has been acknowledged for its issues. We had plenty of them last night with giving some gifts up in the slot. But I'd be hard pressed to believe Vanecek would have bailed us out on them the way Daws did last night in the 2nd period.

It is not unreasonable to expect your goalie to bail you out every once in a while. I think it's fair to say Vanecek has hardly done that this year. He's also given up goals of the backbreaking variety quite often.

I don't think goals saved above expected is a perfect stat, but it's one of the more useful ones to try and track this for that reason. The only goalies worse than Vitek in this category are Joonas Korpisalo, Jonas Johansson and Arvid Soderblom. That's not an inspiring list of goalies to be lumped in with.

 

[JimEIV]

How can playing from behind be solely a criticism of the offense? You’d have to go back and analyze each game for context….did the team have a ton of great scoring chances but fail to capitalize, how long did it take for the opposition to score, how was the defense, did the goalie give up a weak goal, etc etc etc.

From my recollection, this team has played like junk in the first periods - particularly on D and with the goaltending.

Regarding “garbage time” goals…The devils are a top 5 offensive team. Yes score effects is a thing, but not to the extent that you can say that the only reason the team has good offensive numbers is that they can only score when the game is out of reach, which a certain poster seems to be implying.

The D and goalie stats are amongst the worst in the league. They have recently fixed those issues and what do you know they look like a playoff team again.

You have to be really reaching to blame the offense for this team’s struggles.

I think the defense is the biggest problem and I think slow start and not building a cushion or even taking a lead further kills us ..

The other team isn't going to exchange chances with you once they have a lead... as soon as the game gets tighter we become worse....our rush becomes useless when the other team isn't willing to open it up and exchange chances and we don't have the players to grind out goals..

And this why I don't think we will succeed in the playoffs. The entire game becomes those tighter less willing to exchange chances type of games in the playoffs and we suck at it.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

It's a very weird spot for the deadline. Do you buy when you're that close? Is that too high to sell? I don't think we are selling unless we really fall off over the next three weeks, but I still don't love buying unless it's some multi year acquisitions (no rentals).

Which is why Fitz would be wise to stand pat. He can sell that to the team as believing they are good enough as they are. And it avoids the stupid, shortsighted win now trade.

 

[Lou Bloom]

He’s not “untouchable” but I don’t want to trade Mercer for Saros either. If I wanted to give 30 year old goalie a Hellebuyck-esque contract I would have pushed for a Hellebuyck trade.

I think Saros situation is more favorable than Hellebuyck. Saros is two years younger than Hellebuyck and will start his contract extension a year earlier than Hellebuyck. That might not seem like tangible difference but it means you'll in theory get more prime seasons out of Saros vs Hellebuyck who's about to turn 31 in a few months.

I don’t like the risk of those. If people disagree that’s cool but that’s where I’m at.

It's a fair viewpoint, but you're also taking a tangible risk of having poor goaltending throughout this team's window and not maximizing the team's potential success. I think Saros, with his NHL and pre NHL consistency is as good a bet as you can reasonably acquire when it comes to goalie.

It’s some indicator of success? Or we getting Byfield or Sanderson or Faber in a trade? (I’d take Quinn to but I don’t think he’ll get traded either.)

I just meant that saying he's got the 3rd most points at this point in his draft class, doesn't translate to top 3 player of his draft class (or even top 10 for that matter). More of a point that he's a good player but not as good as that stat would suggest.

’m comparing him to every young forward in our system and the one’s we’re likely to draft. You limit your “core” to a few untouchables and then never worry about secondary scoring or the future.

The point isn't to ignore secondary scoring. The point is reallocating your resources to a position of bigger need, that's tougher to fill in an elite goalie in Saros. Especially when you factor in that the Devils are much better setup for now and the future at forward with players like Holtz, Gritsyuk and Lenni who all can help to minimize the blow to secondary scoring.

Our other best supporting forwards are 30-something. We got one by trading young unsigned RFAs or with big contracts that ends when he’s 36.

Sure, but when you already have your elite scoring talent locked up with Hughes, Hischier, Bratt and Meier it's much easier to find those supporting forwards than it is an elite goalie. Not to mention you're best young prospects apart from Seamus Casey all play the wing with Holtz, Gristyuk and Lenni.

To me Mercer plays a perfect style for today’s NHL and has a high hockey sense, I think his defense improves.

He's a good player, that's not the problem. The problem is team building and cap allocation. Would you rather have a good second line winger or an elite goaltender? It's much easier to find a forward to replace Mercer, then it would be to find a goaltender anywhere close to Saros' caliber.

If he goes the number of wingers on this team with a knack for greasy goals goes to zero.

And the number of goalies that can stop the puck reliably stays at zero. The point isn't that Mercer doesn't have value to the team, the point is that Saros, in this scenario would provide even more value.

 

[devilsblood]

I don't think he's been "good".... I think many of you are ignoring the absolutely horrific coverage and overall defense we have gotten until recently.

It's been bad

That's the interesting thing, Daws has made some huge saves recently. Whether it was the Kings game, or the 2nd period last night. If he doesn't make those saves are we saying the defense has been good recently?

I actually think we haven't played especially well in this little run. But we've gotten good goal tending.

If the goal tending holds up, I think we eventually find our footing on ice wise, and we can go on a real run.

 

[guitarguyvic]

I think the defense is the biggest problem and I think slow start and not building a cushion or even taking a lead further kills us ..

The other team isn't going to exchange chances with you once they have a lead... as soon as the game gets tighter we become worse....our rush becomes useless when the other team isn't willing to open it up and exchange chances and we don't have the players to grind out goals..

And this why I don't think we will succeed in the playoffs. The entire game becomes those tighter less willing to exchange chances type of games in the playoffs and we suck at it.

Everything you just wrote points a coaching/systems problem.

 

[Lou Bloom]

He should be good enough to play on the level as 15-25th best player from the draft. He is playing better. Points helps to understand how bad or good he is for his age. He is very good. Its not a problem of him and Lazar that Devils cant find normal third line center for him and forechecking winger for Jack when Haula should play for bigger role than he was signed for.

I agree, I just think an elite goalie is more valuable than a good 2nd line winger.

 

[JimEIV]

Everything you just wrote points a coaching/systems problem.

Or a really shitty defense with forwards that do a lot of cheating in their own zone...

I guess you can say it's up to coach to get them to play the right way...but I think we are kidding ourselves thinking we are going to get similar results to last year with Bahl, Nemec and Luke playing prominent roles in the top 4.

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

Or a really shitty defense with forwards that do a lot of cheating in their own zone...

I guess you can say it's up to coach to get them to play the right way...but I think we are kidding ourselves thinking we are going to get similar results to last year with Bahl, Nemec and Luke playing prominent roles in the top 4.

This year really isn't cup or bust anyway. They have potential to really grow over the next few seasons and having a new coach + solid goaltending with Dawes or whoever we get should help this team. We're pretty set on offense , the only real big loss potentially is what happens with Tofoli. He should be kept around on a medium term deal of possible. Unless Holtz can really step up his game and fill his shoes. Gritsyuk is another season away at earliest. All the other forward prospects with potential (Filmom , Hameenaho, Squires etc) are quite some time away from making the NHL anyway.