Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2023-24 season part II

[guitarguyvic]

This isn’t a team playing the right way and just losing close scraps because of lineup holes. They don’t play the right way fundamentally. Jack coming back isn’t going to fix, unless he goes into complete god mode following weeks of injury.

 

[Cheddabombs]

 

[Mr Bojanglez]

I really think losing Nosek was a bigger loss than maybe some think. He was essentially going to replace Sharongovich on the PK and really fill out our bottom 6.

The pro, I guess, is that it has given Lazar more ice time and he's been great in his role. But I'd really like Nosek back in - he helps the overall team D.

 

[jkrdevil]

That playoff chance on moneypuck was like 70% after the vegas gm

Also, we had like a 115 pt pace in that 20 gm stretch with Nico and Jack healthy

Moneypuck’s model is very volatile. Having looked at it the past couple of season, I don’t think it is the best one out there. Personally, I think Hockeyviz’s model is probably the best. Still in that one we are under 50% at this point.

They have a tough schedule ahead. The flip side of that they still have game against teams they are chasing and competing with, with exception of Detroit. They still have 2 games to each against Pittsburgh and Philly. Win those games and they should be alright.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

We need a proven NHL playoff coach at this point. Stop with the experiments. We can't waste any more years. We dropped the ball when Torts was available. Fitz needs to wake up and fire Lindy right now. There's 0 path to the playoffs with Ruff as a coach & I don't want to write off the season due to "injuries" or "goalie issues". There's 0 path to a cup with Ruff as a coach. We have an extremely talented top 6 without Hughes that's still better than most of the league. Nico, Bratt, Mercer, Meier, Toffoli, Holtz. That's not chump change. That's an actual top 6. I'm so over Lindy at this point. I love Fitz but he's making a huge mistake riding his career on Ruffs back. If it was me I would be approaching Fitz going either fire Ruff or if you don't than you can go with him. We have our core & they're in their primes. Don't f**k this up by riding a dead beat of a coach.

ahh yes, the easy to find "proven NHL playoff coach!"

why didn't I think of that?!

 

[forceten]

It looks reasonable to assume that Jack Hughes and Nosek will both be back after the all-star break. Haula is only day-to-day, so hopefully up front at least we're full strength with some more rest for guys like Meier, Palat who only recently have come back.

The defense is still missing two regulars and Hamilton won't be back before April, but Siegenthaler is about 3 weeks into his injury right? So I doubt he comes back for the outdoor game but likely not too long afterward. By this time next month, if we don't have any other injuries, we should only have Hamilton out. We also might have more of a look at Hatakka and Misyul and, if one can work out to be decent, could swap in to allow us to rest Marino, Siegenthaler, Bahl occasionally. Perhaps that would help the regular players improve.

That's the positive. The negative is this system isn't working for this team. And I don't know if Ruff knows another way. Or if it's just too entrenched. Either way that's the worry I have - we have games where we play well enough to win and lose them and it's always because someone isn't executing the system's more risky aspects perfectly - to err is human, and we don't have a roster of all stars or robots.

I still think the lack of drafting Askarov in 2020 it coming back to haunt us. Holtz is fine, but we need goaltending so badly. And centers.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

We are well over the halfway mark and on pace for eighty nine points. That is horrendous. Don’t look at the standings because it’s an illusion. Look at the number of points you need to make the playoffs, it’s a very consistent number from year to year.

To hit 96 points we’ll need to play at a 105 point pace for the rest of the season. Does this team look even close to that to you? There are no signs of life at all, there’s no help coming, and our coach is an absolute dud.

we are missing the playoffs, and if it leads to Ruff’s dismissal, it will be worth it.

The team currently doesn’t look like they could play at that pace, no. Would a Penguins team down Crosby and Karlsson look like they could play at a 105 point pace? I don’t think so. Probably closer to an 80 point pace.

 

[NjDevsRR]

It looks reasonable to assume that Jack Hughes and Nosek will both be back after the all-star break. Haula is only day-to-day, so hopefully up front at least we're full strength with some more rest for guys like Meier, Palat who only recently have come back.

The defense is still missing two regulars and Hamilton won't be back before April, but Siegenthaler is about 3 weeks into his injury right? So I doubt he comes back for the outdoor game but likely not too long afterward. By this time next month, if we don't have any other injuries, we should only have Hamilton out. We also might have more of a look at Hatakka and Misyul and, if one can work out to be decent, could swap in to allow us to rest Marino, Siegenthaler, Bahl occasionally. Perhaps that would help the regular players improve.

That's the positive. The negative is this system isn't working for this team. And I don't know if Ruff knows another way. Or if it's just too entrenched. Either way that's the worry I have - we have games where we play well enough to win and lose them and it's always because someone isn't executing the system's more risky aspects perfectly - to err is human, and we don't have a roster of all stars or robots.

I still think the lack of drafting Askarov in 2020 it coming back to haunt us. Holtz is fine, but we need goaltending so badly. And centers.

This post. I like. Quality

 

[devilsblood]

I really think losing Nosek was a bigger loss than maybe some think. He was essentially going to replace Sharongovich on the PK and really fill out our bottom 6.

The pro, I guess, is that it has given Lazar more ice time and he's been great in his role. But I'd really like Nosek back in - he helps the overall team D.

Nah, he would have been a role player. Helpful, but I don't see it as a big deal.

Pales in comparison to losing Hamilton, Sieg's, Jack for stretches, Nico for a bit, Palat for a bit, Timo for a bit and playing like poop now.

Goalies not playing well.

Nosek would probably look pretty good if the team was mostly healthy, then he can play his role and we'd appreciate it, put him on a team missing guys all over the place and he looks like a slow untalented player.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

We need a proven NHL playoff coach at this point. Stop with the experiments. We can't waste any more years. We dropped the ball when Torts was available. Fitz needs to wake up and fire Lindy right now. There's 0 path to the playoffs with Ruff as a coach & I don't want to write off the season due to "injuries" or "goalie issues". There's 0 path to a cup with Ruff as a coach. We have an extremely talented top 6 without Hughes that's still better than most of the league. Nico, Bratt, Mercer, Meier, Toffoli, Holtz. That's not chump change. That's an actual top 6. I'm so over Lindy at this point. I love Fitz but he's making a huge mistake riding his career on Ruffs back. If it was me I would be approaching Fitz going either fire Ruff or if you don't than you can go with him. We have our core & they're in their primes. Don't f**k this up by riding a dead beat of a coach.

So recycle dinosaur head coaches

 

[theoptimist]

Nah, he would have been a role player. Helpful, but I don't see it as a big deal.

Pales in comparison to losing Hamilton, Sieg's, Jack for stretches, Nico for a bit, Palat for a bit, Timo for a bit and playing like poop now.

Goalies not playing well.

Nosek would probably look pretty good if the team was mostly healthy, then he can play his role and we'd appreciate it, put him on a team missing guys all over the place and he looks like a slow untalented player.

losing Brendan Smith

 

[McDuffz88]

ahh yes, the easy to find "proven NHL playoff coach!"

why didn't I think of that?!

Let's be honest here. The writing on wall for Ruff has been here for going back 2 years ago. There have been proven NHL coaches available but we didn't go after them because of our loyalty to Ruff. I was shouting from the rafters to hire Torts and we should of. Check my posts from when he was available. It's all I talked about. This isn't a hindsight move. It was a move that we desperately needed to make that would of guaranteed us to be a better team long term and we didn't do it so we could hold on to Ruff. Anyone who seriously thought Ruff was our path to a cup was delusional.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Let's be honest here. The writing on wall for Ruff has been here for going back 2 years ago. There have been proven NHL coaches available but we didn't go after them because of our loyalty to Ruff. I was shouting from the rafters to hire Torts and we should of. Check my posts from when he was available. It's all I talked about. This isn't a hindsight move. It was a move that we desperately needed to make that would of guaranteed us to be a better team long term and we didn't do it so we could hold on to Ruff. Anyone who seriously thought Ruff was our path to a cup was delusional.

I literally don't know who you are arguing with? Who here even "likes" Ruff? I think even the most positive ones simply tolerate him.

and please dont bring up that we should have hired Torts. No freaking thanks.

 

[forceten]

Tortorella wasn't the coach we needed, but I am disappointed that we let Brunette leave. I simply cannot believe we weren't paying him enough and giving him the nod and wink that our 64 year old coach had a tenure measured in months...

 

[Devs3cups]

Let's be honest here. The writing on wall for Ruff has been here for going back 2 years ago. There have been proven NHL coaches available but we didn't go after them because of our loyalty to Ruff. I was shouting from the rafters to hire Torts and we should of. Check my posts from when he was available. It's all I talked about. This isn't a hindsight move. It was a move that we desperately needed to make that would of guaranteed us to be a better team long term and we didn't do it so we could hold on to Ruff. Anyone who seriously thought Ruff was our path to a cup was delusional.

Imagining the alternate reality where we hire Montgomery or Cassidy after the 2021-2022 season.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Let's be honest here. The writing on wall for Ruff has been here for going back 2 years ago. There have been proven NHL coaches available but we didn't go after them because of our loyalty to Ruff. I was shouting from the rafters to hire Torts and we should have. Check my posts from when he was available. It's all I talked about. This isn't a hindsight move. It was a move that we desperately needed to make that would have guaranteed us to be a better team long term and we didn't do it so we could hold on to Ruff. Anyone who seriously thought Ruff was our path to a cup was delusional.

I think you could pick any single coach in the entire league and they wouldn’t have had a more successful season than Lindy had last year.

Basically all of the young players have developed nicely under Ruff. Both of the rookie D are having stellar seasons under unbelievably difficult circumstances due to injuries everywhere. I’m missing why we desperately needed to make this coaching change that would’ve dramatically altered our path to a cup. John ****ing Tortorella is obviously not the right guy for a group this young.

Would this coach have special healing powers to prevent our team from getting decimated?

 

[Devs3cups]

The guys are getting pissed. Something needs to change somewhere. Facing adversity is good, but it seems like this group fundamentally isn’t playing good hockey right now.

 

[jkrdevil]

Well they probably did hire the guy who was right for the job and then let him walk.

That said I don’t think had they hired Torts at the time would have been a bad move. A hard ass coach would have probably been a good wake up call for that group (and still would be a good one now). His reputation with young players is overblown. Sure there was PLD, but I think the subsequent years have shown that was a player problem. There were some rough spots with Lecavalier back in the day, but he also had his best years under Torts and won a Cup together.

 

[NjDevsRR]

When Jack went down 11 games ago I said they needed to tread water and be within a few games of the playoff bubble. They did that by going 4-6-1, and have some games in hand to their benefit. (Thank you Metro for being ass)

Now, Jack has to be back right away. If not then we will continue to slip. But if he is back then his presence immediately helps even if he is not in God mode. His presence alone creates two number 1 lines and will allow Nico and Bratt to have some easier minutes as teams have to focus on shutting down two lines now. That’s our bread and butter. There is a chance if Nico and Jack are healthy in this last 35 gm stretch.

 

[Devs3cups]

Pretty fair. Although, I’d tone down injuries a bit and bring goaltending/coaching higher.

 

[jkrdevil]

The most concerning thing about Ruff right now is with the injuries they look like the Blackhawks or a bottom of the standings team in terms of getting outshot until score affects kick-in. Even with the injuries, this team should better than that.

 

[NjDevsRR]

The guys are getting pissed. Something needs to change somewhere. Facing adversity is good, but it seems like this group fundamentally isn’t playing good hockey right now.

That video was right after his horrendous giveaway. So yes, frustration abound but that was clearly after his own f*** up. It was a terrible pass

 

[devilsblood]

Looking at Marino's numbers this year compared to last. Just in terms of defensive metrics.

His corsi against rate is actually slightly better.

Shot against rate much worse.

Scoring chances against slightly better.

Higher danger against much worse.

Goals against rate much worse.

High danger goals against rate much worse, and this accounts for most of the jump in goals against rate.

xGA rate up a bit, but not significant.

Now I think these numbers which were once considered advanced level, are really telling us some basic level stuff, without much consideration for player or puck movement prior to the shots.

But the HDCA's are telling us that when Marino is on the ice, our opponents are getting a lot of shots off and scoring a lot of goals, from in close.

I also think the corsi against vs shots against disparity is telling us something as well.

 

[McDuffz88]

I think you could pick any single coach in the entire league and they wouldn’t have had a more successful season than Lindy had last year.

Basically all of the young players have developed nicely under Ruff. Both of the rookie D are having stellar seasons under unbelievably difficult circumstances due to injuries everywhere. I’m missing why we desperately needed to make this coaching change that would’ve dramatically altered our path to a cup. John ****ing Tortorella is obviously not the right guy for a group this young.

Would this coach have special healing powers to prevent our team from getting decimated?

I don't care that we had a one off great year. That's not the bar for success. The bar for success is consistent good hockey that can win you a cup which we can't do under Ruff. We play a horrible sloppy game that will NEVER win us a cup. With the amount of talent we have we were going to play that good last year under any coach. We had an entire roster that was 100% healthy all hitting career years with a d corps that was all Vets. That was a one off. Teams rarely get that lucky when it comes to injuries. You really think Ruff was the catalyst for last year? It wasn't Ruff. We were just that talented of a roster and we STILL are. Did Ruff develop our core nicely? Yea but that window has passed. Ruff was never supposed to be here for long term. He wasn't even supposed to be here for the playoffs. He was strictly hired to develop our core. His job is done. The torch needs to be passed to someone else that can take our team to the next level. Ruff ain't that guy. You have low expectations of this team. You're sitting here telling me a 2nd OA is playing good because of Ruff. The dude got picked 2OA for a reason. Hughes, Nemec etc talent would of came through no matter what. Stop with the injury excuses. It's a loser mentality excuse. Even with the injuries we should be a top team. We have Nico, Bratt, Meier, Toffoli, Mercer, Palat, Holtz. You can't sit here and tell me that isn't one of the more talented top 6 in the league so stop with the injury card. It's a pathetic excuse. Yea we don't have Hughes but our whole system shouldn't be riding the back of one player. That's a system designed to fail. When it comes to the goaltending I think we can bring in a legitimate starting goalie & their stats will tank. Why? Because our system is horrible and makes it hard for the d-men and even harder for the goalie. No a coach isn't going to have "magical healing powers" but a real coach will have us playing NHL hockey with a good system and looking inspired. Right now I watch a team that looks defeated before they step onto the ice and extremely sloppy play.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I don't care that we had a one off great year. That's not the bar for success. The bar for success is consistent good hockey that can win you a cup which we can't do under Ruff. We play a horrible sloppy game that will NEVER win us a cup. With the amount of talent we have we were going to play that good last year under any coach. We had an entire roster that was 100% healthy all hitting career years with a d corps that was all Vets. That was a one off. Teams rarely get that lucky when it comes to injuries. You really think Ruff was the catalyst for last year? It wasn't Ruff. We were just that talented of a roster and we STILL are. Did Ruff develop our core nicely? Yea but that window has passed. Ruff was never supposed to be here for long term. He wasn't even supposed to be here for the playoffs. He was strictly hired to develop our core. His job is done. The torch needs to be passed to someone else that can take our team to the next level. Ruff ain't that guy. You have low expectations of this team. You're sitting here telling me a 2nd OA is playing good because of Ruff. The dude got picked 2OA for a reason. Hughes, Nemec etc talent would of came through no matter what. Stop with the injury excuses. It's a loser mentality excuse. Even with the injuries we should be a top team. We have Nico, Bratt, Meier, Toffoli, Mercer, Palat, Holtz. You can't sit here and tell me that isn't one of the more talented top 6 in the league so stop with the injury card. It's a pathetic excuse. Yea we don't have Hughes but our whole system shouldn't be riding the back of one player. That's a system designed to fail. When it comes to the goaltending I think we can bring in a legitimate starting goalie & their stats will tank. Why? Because our system is horrible and makes it hard for the d-men and even harder for the goalie. No a coach isn't going to have "magical healing powers" but a real coach will have us playing NHL hockey with a good system and looking inspired. Right now I watch a team that looks defeated before they step onto the ice and extremely sloppy play.

we had the literal same system last year and the goalie stats were league average or better, so that debunks that method....