Fans never want to trade draft picks because they have a much longer term view of their team's success. GMs are in it different, their jobs are on the line and they need to get results sooner rather than later. If the Devils miss the playoffs again next year it's his ass, or at the very least it's his ass on the hot seat.
Yes and no. I agree that GMs can be short sighted, however history hasn't shown them to be particularly short sighted with that kind of asset for an old player (or even a goalie, though there are some instances). So there is absolutely a limit on how short sighted they have been.
As the league has embraced more data, I think you're seeing that go away. There are also more teams that embrace the analytics now. Every team knows aging curves. The same way you don't see elite prospects get moved for Martin Erat any longer. You don't see top 10 picks get moved for skaters or goalies in their 30s. I can't remember the last time it happened in the cap era. Top 10 picks rarely get moved for goalies the Varlamov and Schneider trades are over a decade old now. Every now and again you may see a GM gamble a top 10 pick on a younger skater with only a couple of years control, but my guess is that they are typically doing that under the idea that they can get that person locked up long term and aren't viewing it as strictly a 2 year proposition.
I think Markstrom will be a devil when all is said and done, and while I wouldn't completely rule it out, I don't expect it to be at the cost of pick #10.
I watched Brad Treliving piss away years of a promising young core with bandaid stop gap goalies and cheap 'up and comers'. It wasn't the only problem with the roster but it was a major one. There's only so many reliable starters who can give you above average goaltending with the lion's share of games in this league right now, Markstrom happens to be one of them. Do I think he's worth the 10th overall straight up? No not really, but it's not absurd either. With some retention and/or a pick going out with him that could definitely make sense.
You can definitely make a trade work on paper in terms of value. I wouldn't argue that (and it's also the reason I wouldn't rule out the team moving that pick in such a deal). I mean, it's the #10 pick, not connor mcdavid, so I'm certainly with you there.
Really not like the 10th overall is some sure thing either that fans like to think of it. Sure you could get an Evan Bouchard or Mikko Rantanen, could also easily be Slater Koekkoek or Cody Hodgson or Tyler Boucher or Dylan McIlrath. Or somebody mid like Jost or Podkolzin.
Nope, but you do have that upside. And even if that #10 pick is fairly mid, the multiple years of indentured servitude that they have to endure during their RFA seasons does make them fairly valuable from a dollar cost perspective.
Some of the variance is also offset by the fact that someone like markstrom could just suck and probably isn't going to be around longer than two years. Markstrom should have less variance than a draft pick, but he isn't impervious to just straight up being bad the next two years before his career is over.
