Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part V

[My3Sons]

Can't wait until Fitz does something stupid like trading Nico for Quinn Hughes this summer and the media circus that will accompany that.

If they could get a top line defender for a third liner center he’d be GM of the year

 

[dzubrus8]

It is exactly like this—Going into last night he had 115 oz, 183 nz, 162 dz, and 749 on the fly.

Thanks for that. I’ll admit I didn’t realize the numbers were like that haha. Regardless of the rush changes it’s notable to me that the diff between OZ and DZ face offs is less than 1 per game, that shouldn’t have a massive impact on his stats.

Again run of play really can’t be looked into too much. Correct me if I’m wrong but if you’re Kovacevic or Hamilton or you’re Haula or Hughes you are typically going to get on the ice during a line change and those are only happening in certain areas of the ice. Maybe Hughes being better on the rush will get on a bit earlier in the NZ than say Haula would? But overall there aren’t many conclusions you can draw from the rush to the ice relative to face offs.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

The season doesn't last 4 weeks and started in October

okay, and?

Mercer hasn't been good in 2 years. Meier is producing NOW.

weird stuff.

 

[Oneiro]

FITZ
Holtz + Stillman - two 1st round picks traded for a pair of fourth liners. And a floundering No. 2 overall in Nemec, who's either been mishandled and needs a course correction or needs to be moved.

SHERO
Smith, Zetterlund/Okhotiuk, Sharangovich - 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th traded for a mid pair D and two second line wings. And if you want to throw in Anderson for Johnsson, that's a 3rd for a guy who was a second line wing at the time. This is before you get to Boqvist, who is better than all our fourth line guys, and McLeod, who is a pick I hated and would still be in the league and is pathetically appearing more valuable than Mercer has been. And Gritsyuk who will be on the team next year.

Fitz has a great D prospect in Casey, great goalie prospect in Yegorov, a depth wing in Lenni. And what else? Squires or Vilen? Traff got moved in an overpay for a vet LD. He's f***ed up big time in the draft.

 

[devilsblood]

okay, and?

Mercer hasn't been good in 2 years. Meier is producing NOW.

weird stuff.

Meier has 4 goals and 2 assists in his last 10. That's pretty good, I'll certainly take a goal heavy split like that, but we are still talking about a sub 50 pt pace. And this after a a 20 game stretch of non production.

I think he's played better then his production, but we need him to continue to produce down the stretch.

 

[Triumph]

FITZ
Holtz + Stillman - two 1st round picks traded for a pair of fourth liners. And a floundering No. 2 overall in Nemec, who's either been mishandled and needs a course correction or needs to be moved.

SHERO
Smith, Zetterlund/Okhotiuk, Sharangovich - 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th traded for a mid pair D and two second line wings. And if you want to throw in Anderson for Johnsson, that's a 3rd for a guy who was a second line wing at the time. This is before you get to Boqvist, who is better than all our fourth line guys, and McLeod, who is a pick I hated and would still be in the league and is pathetically appearing more valuable than Mercer has been. And Gritsyuk who will be on the team next year.

Fitz has a great D prospect in Casey, great goalie prospect in Yegorov, a depth wing in Lenni. And what else? Squires or Vilen? Traff got moved in an overpay for a vet LD. He's has f***ed up big time in the draft.

That's the thing about the draft, even if you aren't perfect, you can still salvage some value if you pick a decent player that another team might want. Stillman was traded for literally nothing. I suspect he was included to mitigate Glass's remaining salary this season, because he's due to make $175k next season or whatever 1st round picks make.

Nemec's complete implosion this season is a mystery, but he has to get himself straightened out immediately. It's not unheard of for a young guy to get confident and not show up prepared after he thinks he has a spot, but it's a lesson a player can only be taught once. He either learns it then or never does. Petr Sykora played on the top line for a while in his rookie season at age 18, then he was in the minors for most of the next year. He came out of that and had a good career. Nemec has abilities few players have, he just has to put in the work to get to the level he showed in his rookie season.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Meier has 4 goals and 2 assists in his last 10. That's pretty good, I'll certainly take a goal heavy split like that, but we are still talking about a sub 50 pt pace. And this after a a 20 game stretch of non production.

I think he's played better then his production, but we need him to continue to produce down the stretch.

why didn't you go back 11 games? Probably because he scored in that game, which would put it at 7 in 11.

love arbitrary timeframes.

by the way, 7 pts is 25% of Dawson Mercer's point total for the entire year. In 71 games.

 

[NJDevs26]

why didn't you go back 11 games? Probably because he scored in that game, which would put it at 7 in 11.

love arbitrary timeframes.

by the way, 7 pts is 25% of Dawson Mercer's point total for the entire year. In 71 games.

Why can't it be both? They're both underperforming relative of expectations, but because one's got star talent (in name only) who's performing at an okay-ish level, the fact he's not actually performing at an $8.8 million level gets excused while a middle six player who's got decent talent playing below average gets eviscerated as if he's the problem with the team and the star we need 30+ goals and 65-70 points from?

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Because one guy has played pretty well for the most part even though his point totals aren't there.

the other guy has not played pretty well, for going on 2 years now.

I don't care about what they are paid. That's meaningless in season.

 

[TrufleShufle]

Why can't it be both? They're both underperforming relative of expectations, but because one's got star talent (in name only) who's performing at an okay-ish level, the fact he's not actually performing at an $8.8 million level gets excused while a middle six player who's got decent talent playing below average gets eviscerated as if he's the problem with the team and the star we need 30+ goals and 65-70 points from?

Because when there is no option but to be happy with what you have because it's a long term expensive contract people will use cognitive dissonance to convince themselves its fine along with battling against anyone who might break through that mental wall they created. I mean look at the Palat defenders holding everything on one goal from a couple years ago until it was undeniable his contract stunk.

That's not to say Timo is terrible and needs to be bought out, but it is to say it's ok to want and expect more, without people losing their minds.

TLDR: people are weird.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Because when there is no option but to be happy with what you have because it's a long term expensive contract people will use cognitive dissonance to convince themselves its fine along with battling against anyone who might break through that mental wall they created. I mean look at the Palat defenders holding everything on one goal from a couple years ago until it was undeniable his contract stunk.

That's not to say Timo is terrible and needs to be bought out, but it is to say it's ok to want and expect more, without people losing their minds.

TLDR: people are weird.

How many times do people need to say the bolded? I don't really think it needs to be prefaced in every post. Everyone pretty much agrees with this?

"TLDR people are weird"

 

[TrufleShufle]

How many times do people need to say the bolded? I don't really think it needs to be prefaced in every post. Everyone pretty much agrees with this?

"TLDR people are weird"

It's a message board.... People watch this team, see the players, comment on the players. Mercer has been playing bad but no shortage of people saying that... Should we stop saying that as well??

 

[JimEIV]

FITZ
Holtz + Stillman - two 1st round picks traded for a pair of fourth liners. And a floundering No. 2 overall in Nemec, who's either been mishandled and needs a course correction or needs to be moved.

SHERO
Smith, Zetterlund/Okhotiuk, Sharangovich - 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th traded for a mid pair D and two second line wings. And if you want to throw in Anderson for Johnsson, that's a 3rd for a guy who was a second line wing at the time. This is before you get to Boqvist, who is better than all our fourth line guys, and McLeod, who is a pick I hated and would still be in the league and is pathetically appearing more valuable than Mercer has been. And Gritsyuk who will be on the team next year.

Fitz has a great D prospect in Casey, great goalie prospect in Yegorov, a depth wing in Lenni. And what else? Squires or Vilen? Traff got moved in an overpay for a vet LD. He's f***ed up big time in the draft.

I look at differently...

From 2010 to 2015 there are 9 Devils players drafted with full time NHL jobs today.

John Merrill, Scott Wedgewood, Adam Larsson, Blake Coleman, Damon Severson, Alex Kerfoot, Miles Wood, Pavel Zacha and McKenzie Blackwood (how you want to classify the last two whatever...but it was Conte's last at the helm)

From 2016 to 2020* (2020 was Fitz) there are 8 Devils players drafted with full time NHL jobs.(If you split time in the AHL you're not full time like a Joey Anderson)

Nate Bastian, Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier, Jesper Boqvist, Fabian Zetterland, Yegor Sharangovich, Jack Hughes, Dawson Mercer.

Shakir Mukhamadullin is trending well but did play a significant number of games in the AHL this season.

2021 to today there is only Luke Hughes.

But the last few draft years are bit too soon to judge in my opinion, 2024 and 2023 is still filtering out. From 2022 we've seen Casey and Nemec D+3.


Fitz in 5 drafts with 2 of those years being largely undetermined and 2022 just coming in, is 2 Luke and Dawson...

2 current players in the 3 years from 2020 through 2022 with Mukhamadullin, Nemec, Casey and Daws as real possibilities. Potentially 6 NHL players in those 3 years if everything goes perfectly for them but I think 4 NHL players is almost a certainty from those 3 years and we'll see how 2023 and 2024 shake out.

That's sort of how I am judging it...we were told the past was garbage...the new was great and Fitz had dropped the ball ....I don't think that is remotely true at all.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

It's a message board.... People watch this team, see the players, comment on the players. Mercer has been playing bad but no shortage of people saying that... Should we stop saying that as well??

pretty much everyone agrees Meier needs more production. Haven't seen one person say otherwise?

There are still a good number of people who defend Mercer.

Pretty straightforward? Or so I thought.

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

RELEASE DATE : September 2025

 

[NJDevs26]

No there's like one person who goes overboard defending Mercer (as well as pumping his tires this last offseason) and that's why you guys are so gung ho focusing on his underperformance now. Letting one poster dictate the arguments on the board is actual weird stuff.

What I can't figure out is why people bend in pretzels to defend Timo other than the advanced stats which are treated like religious people treat the commandments. Maybe it's like the Kovalchuk phenomenon, people sometimes want a 'type' of player so much that once we get that kind of player he's pretty much teflon with a huge chunk of the fanbase.

Or maybe it's just as simple as the same poster who pumps Mercer's tires and winds a lot of you up rips Timo and that's the real reason why people reflexively make excuses for him left and right.

 

[TrufleShufle]

pretty much everyone agrees Meier needs more production. Haven't seen one person say otherwise?

There are still a good number of people who defend Mercer.

Pretty straightforward? Or so I thought.

Def more people running to the rescue at the slight thought that Timo isn't playing up to his contract than for Mercer when people say he is absolute trash and needs to go.

But maybe we both see what we want. Who knows.

 

[Edmonton East]

Gonna be funny if Keefe continues to go postal so he can get fired and get back to being with his family....rather than waste several more years with this team and a beyond incompetent GM.

Likely scenario? Obviously not. But man was that one out of character presser. And unless a player is a repeat offender/problem child, which Kovy isn't, it's coach-media training 101 not to address a player quote from the media without hearing it yourself first....but even so, what was quoted wasn't bad even without the additional context.

 

[NJDevs26]

Why does anyone assume Keefe HASN'T addressed Kovacevic's play with him first? Especially after some of the gaffes he's had recently. Why do people just assume he only popped off at a presser and blindsided him?

At least we don't have to worry about ganking his trade value anytime soon since he just signed an extension unlike the GM with Holtz.

 

[My3Sons]

Why does anyone assume Keefe HASN'T addressed Kovacevic's play with him first? Especially after some of the gaffes he's had recently. Why do people just assume he popped off at a presser and blindsided him?

At least we don't have to worry about ganking his trade value anytime soon since he just signed an extension unlike the GM with Holtz.

If he previously spoke to Kovacevic I think his response is different. The presser sounded like a coach who thought Kovacevic was calling out teammates in some fashion as opposed to a struggling player. I’m skeptical Keefe would kick Kivacevic when he’s down if he thought that’s what was going on. If Kivacevic had said we all have to find another level starting with me or something along those lines Keefe probably says he’s right. It’s not what you say it’s how you say it.

 

[My3Sons]

No there's like one person who goes overboard defending Mercer (as well as pumping his tires this last offseason) and that's why you guys are so gung ho focusing on his underperformance now. Letting one poster dictate the arguments on the board is actual weird stuff.

What I can't figure out is why people bend in pretzels to defend Timo other than the advanced stats which are treated like religious people treat the commandments. Maybe it's like the Kovalchuk phenomenon, people sometimes want a 'type' of player so much that once we get that kind of player he's pretty much teflon with a huge chunk of the fanbase.

Or maybe it's just as simple as the same poster who pumps Mercer's tires and winds a lot of you up rips Timo and that's the real reason why people reflexively make excuses for him left and right.

Maybe try bending your self into a pretzel before you knock it. At my age it’s like yoga. You do it wherever and whenever you can. Timo criticism, before playing golf, in a crowd of people waiting on a line, however you can work it in.

 

[Bleedred]

Gonna be funny if Keefe continues to go postal so he can get fired and get back to being with his family....rather than waste several more years with this team and a beyond incompetent GM.

Likely scenario? Obviously not. But man was that one out of character presser. And unless a player is a repeat offender/problem child, which Kovy isn't, it's coach-media training 101 not to address a player quote from the media without hearing it yourself first....but even so, what was quoted wasn't bad even without the additional context.

Pretty good chance the GM goes before Keefe right now.

 

[TrufleShufle]

If he previously spoke to Kovacevic I think his response is different. The presser sounded like a coach who thought Kovacevic was calling out teammates in some fashion as opposed to a struggling player. I’m skeptical Keefe would kick Kivacevic when he’s down if he thought that’s what was going on. If Kivacevic had said we all have to find another level starting with me or something along those lines Keefe probably says he’s right. It’s not what you say it’s how you say it.

Yea not to go all phycologist on it, but that reaction def read like someone who was pissed at someone else, was stewing and hasn't actually gotten to speak it yet. Just hearing his name made him have a quick mental snap.

 

[NJDevs26]

Pretty good chance the GM goes before Keefe right now.

Clearly...although I will say the coach also deserves ripping if the team somehow misses the playoffs. He's not getting offed this year, nor do I think he's the big issue - but I don't think he should get off scot-free either if this team somehow chokes away a playoff berth, especially with the amount of time we puttered around in mediocrity even before this spate of injuries.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Keefe was probably still mad at Kovy for putting the nail in the coffin against Calgary.