Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part V

[NJDfan86]

I still mostly align with Jim here. To me it’s the ordinal ranking and magnitude that’s interesting, not the exact number. The fact that Mercer has way more of his OZ+DZ shifts starting in the DZ relative to other fwd’s on this team is meaningful. Whether it’s 60 or 58 or 90 the fact that it’s 10-20% more than the teams top six FWDs is an important takeaway

If you think about it as 60% of his OZ+DZ starts are in the DZ it certainly shows they trust him more as a defensive forward even recognizing that a lot of starts stats lose meaning due to NZ and mid-play line changes.

Also, it’s not like he plays 1000 shifts and 900 of them were in NZ or run of play. And even if they were in the run of play those changes can only happen in certain moments (you’re not going to get a change when you’re stuck in the DZ) so I wouldn’t put too much stake into those numbers missing from this figure.

This reminds me of people who bash +/- because it doesn’t account for special teams and it’s reflective of team play, etc.. Sure if you use it to say Dillon is so much worse now because his +/- last year in Winnipeg was 10 points higher (e.g.) then yes I think it’s an inappropriate conclusion. But, if you say “Kovacevic is +10 higher than XYZ while playing more defensive shifts and against higher QoC” to imply he’s more of a net positive at 5on5 then that has real merit.

It is exactly like this—Going into last night he had 115 oz, 183 nz, 162 dz, and 749 on the fly.

 

[NJDfan86]

159 Dzone starts out 272 offensive and defensive zone is 58.4 at 5v5... and the numbers are 60% at Even Strength.

I just proved to you what the Hockey Reference numbers represent...you thought those were neutral and defensive zone combined....that's the only mistake that was made in this whole conversation...you are completely wrong about what the hockey Reference numbers represent.
Ozone and Dzone = 272 starts at 5v5. 159/272 is 58.4 Dzone starts

Add 3on3 and 4on4 and Dawson is 60% Dzone starts at Even Strength.

Got, Dawson Mercer starts in the dzone 60% based on a completely logical definition of zone starts only encompassing the offense and defensive zone.

In reality, he starts about 14% of his shifts there.

 

[Better Call Sal]

No one cares about the neutral zone is a funny comment in and out of context.

Some would say that’s a part of our current problem.

 

[longislanddevil]

I’m in the camp that has seen enough of and is done with Mercer. It’s become evident to me that the 10 game bender he went on in his sophomore season was just an aberation. After finishing with 27 goals, it gave us false hope (likely) that the kid could be a consistent 25-30 goal scorer. The reality is he’s settled in as a 15-20 goal scorer, pretty good on PK and a player who does not have plus skills in nearly all other facets of the game. I also trust the eye test. I feel like both Mercer and the organization could benefit if there’s a hockey trade to made. A change of scenery is needed here for the player….

Are there any young promising forwards you’d be interested in? I looked back at Mercer’s draft year and see Connor Zary was selected six picks after Dawson. I like what I’ve seen from Zary in games he’s played against the Devils. He’s set to become a RFA. Perhaps contract negotiations don’t go well and he becomes available? Would this player interest you?

 

[BahlDeep]

I have been tough on Mercer.

But Meier is a much bigger issue than him. Point blank he's been a complete disappointment.

 

[NJersey]

That keefe clip is spreading

 

[My3Sons]

Forget the lower goals from Timo and the others for a moment. How about just not giving up late game goals the way they have? You don’t need to score to do that. If they hold up against Calgary Dallas San Jose and Detroit that’s a few more points and things probably dokt seem quite as bad right now.

 

[Bleedred]

That keefe clip is spreading

I wish Fire Fitz was spreading.

Hopefully the crowd chants that if they lose to the lowly Canucks on Monday night.

 

[Oneiro]

Arguing about zone starts at all to defend a player means you already lost the argument.

But yeah. I don't know how you can look at Meier's play here and not have issues with his contract as well. He's incredibly uneven and is basically a 60 pt player who picks and chooses when to play with some emotion - it becomes the Palat deal 2.0 if there's no major bounce-back after this.

The drafting really hurts now.

 

[Mgd31]

Arguing about zone starts at all to defend a player means you already lost the argument.

But yeah. I don't know how you can look at Meier's play here and not have issues with his contract as well. He's incredibly uneven and is basically a 60 pt player who picks and chooses when to play with some emotion - it becomes the Palat deal 2.0 if there's no major bounce-back after this.

The drafting really hurts now.

The Nemec and Holtz picks are killing us right now. You have an unplayable defenseman and a beefed up 4th liner to show for it.

This team could really use a couple top 6/9 forwards they could have gotten from both those pick slots.

 

[Bleedred]

It’s almost like the general manager isn’t doing a very good job? Just give him one more year! He promises we’ll make the playoffs next year! As long as injuries don’t start happening in January or any time before! Or any time after!

 

[Billdo]

I don't understand what happened to the team after that stretch where we went like a dozen games or whatever keeping the opponents to under 20 shots or whatever it was. The Jekyl and Hyde nonsense this team does is what the problem is. There isn't an in between average team. They're either really good or really bad.

 

[HersheyBob27]

It’s almost like the general manager isn’t doing a very good job? Just give him one more year! He promises we’ll make the playoffs next year! As long as injuries don’t start happening in January or any time before! Or any time after!

We should just trade away most of our high picks for the near future. Overpay for legit players. Not reclamation projects. Just admit that we draft horribly. And shut off tom’s cell phone plan approaching July 1st. Too many mistakes are made in free agency generally speaking

 

[Bleedred]

We should just trade away most of our high picks for the near future. Overpay for legit players. Not reclamation projects. Just admit that we draft horribly. And shut off tom’s cell phone plan approaching July 1st. Too many mistakes are made in free agency generally speaking

Shut off Tom’s cellphone on April 16th if we miss the playoffs.

 

[My3Sons]

Shut off Tom’s cellphone on April 16th if we miss the playoffs.

Is that a Tom issue or a Keefe issue?

 

[devilsblood]

The Nemec and Holtz picks are killing us right now. You have an unplayable defenseman and a beefed up 4th liner to show for it.

This team could really use a couple top 6/9 forwards they could have gotten from both those pick slots.

I'm over Holtz.

But Nemec is definitely a recent draft pick which is in the spotlight for the wrong reasons. Earlier in the season there was a discussion of if we drafted a center that player (Cooley) could now be providing valuable depth. Well with the injury to Hamilton, Nemec should now be a guy providing valuable depth. Instead he is out of the lineup in favor of a 27 year AHL player playing his off hand.

His play right now is signaling there is no way he is starting the season with the team next year. The idea of trading Ham's at this point is completely off the table.

And his mindset of "I'm a high pick I should be in the NHL" is not one I like going into next season with him on the AHL roster.

 

[JimEIV]

I don't get it honestly... I think Fitz has been spectacular addressing needs quickly...his Free Agent signings have been good... he's gone out and got the goalies that were needed...he restructured the defense twice and both times successfully in my opinion, he got Timo, he brought in Dougie, he brought in the spare forwards that he needed...I see that all as success for Fitz...

The drafting? Well, not so good there. But making believe that the drafting has sucked just under Fitz is revisionist. I still believe drafting McLeod was catastrophic and not because of the off ice stuff...and picking his buddy #2 was equally as dumb.

2017 was very good...Nico, Boqvist and Zetterlund as 1,2,3 was about as good as we've seen in a long time.

But Ty Smith and the 2018 class? Oooff. Jack Hughes 2019 class was big pile of nothing also..I guess we're still waiting on Gritsyuk 7 years after he was drafted so there's that?

Regardless...there is very little here from the years prior to Fitz in terms of drafted players...Nico, Jack and Bratt? Two #1OA and a 6th rounder after all the high picks we had?

There is a helluva lot more contributing Fitz picks to this team than just 3...

Luke, Mercer, Nemec, Casey, Daws...

Not saying that is good, just saying it's never really been good.

 

[aero8279]

I'm actually impressed that Dowling has 2 goals. I thought it would most likely be 0 or tops 1.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I have been tough on Mercer.

But Meier is a much bigger issue than him. Point blank he's been a complete disappointment.

have you watched any hockey games the last 4 weeks or so, or?

 

[Bleedred]

Is that a Tom issue or a Keefe issue?

Fitz for sure. Keefe just got here.

 

[Triumph]

The drafting? Well, not so good there. But making believe that the drafting has sucked just under Fitz is revisionist. I still believe drafting McLeod was catastrophic and not because of the off ice stuff...and picking his buddy #2 was equally as dumb.

McLeod was a below-average pick and if he weren't a criminal dipshit he'd be an important part of the team right now. He was not catastrophic. Bastian has been a fine player. Pretty funny to not mention Bratt here at all, good joke.

But Ty Smith and the 2018 class? Oooff.

2018 is a very weak draft class. Of guys taken after Smith in the 1st round, the only players I can confidently say are top 9 forwards or top 6 D are Miller and Sandin.

The Devils not only managed to trade Smith with a 3rd for Marino who they dealt for 2 2nds, they got Sharangovich (who they effectively dealt for a 2nd round pick) and Schmid (who was effectively dealt for a 3rd or so). So out of this supposed awful class, they've managed to get themselves 3 future draft picks, not to mention Sharangovich's and Schmid's contributions to the team. That is good business from a bad class. By contrast, the Devils have absolutely nothing left from 2013 or 2014, but if Yegorov is an NHLer, they will be reaping the rewards of the 2018 class for a long time.

Jack Hughes 2019 class was big pile of nothing also..I guess we're still waiting on Gritsyuk 7 years after he was drafted so there's that?

Regardless...there is very little here from the years prior to Fitz in terms of drafted players...Nico, Jack and Bratt? Two #1OA and a 6th rounder after all the high picks we had?

There is a helluva lot more contributing Fitz picks to this team than just 3...

Luke, Mercer, Nemec, Casey, Daws...

Not saying that is good, just saying it's never really been good.

Shero never had 3 first round draft picks to work with (because he was working from the horrid framework which he had been given).

Fitzgerald has turned several of Shero's picks into contributors or other selections.

 

[Eggtimer]

The Nemec and Holtz picks are killing us right now. You have an unplayable defenseman and a beefed up 4th liner to show for it.

This team could really use a couple top 6/9 forwards they could have gotten from both those pick slots.

Add in the Stillman pick too . That hurt .
Add Cooley Rossi and Stankoven to our roster right now and we are probably in 2nd in the Metro and rolling right along .

 

[Billdo]

Can't wait until Fitz does something stupid like trading Nico for Quinn Hughes this summer and the media circus that will accompany that.

 

[BahlDeep]

have you watched any hockey games the last 4 weeks or so, or?

The season doesn't last 4 weeks and started in October

 

[Bleedred]

Can't wait until Fitz does something stupid like trading Nico for Quinn Hughes this summer and the media circus that will accompany that.

I know you’re probably just joking. No way that would happen.

I could totally see the 2-3 year extension for Dumoulin though.