Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part II

[Bleedred]

Misyul was reassigned to Utica on the 25th of October after being called up on the 21st. 4 days.

My mistake. I thought he was here for at least a week. Looking at the calendar he was here for I guess the game he played, got scratched the next game, then was sent back on a game day the next day? So I guess he was really only a healthy scratch that one game?

 

[New Jerseys Devil]

Nemec had 42 points in 78 games his first two years in Utica. This season he has 3 points in 11 games. Something is clearly up with him this season, not sure if it's a legitimate regression or if he's still feeling the effects of that nasty hit in the offseason.

I would hate to pull the plug on him this early for a couple of reasons.

1.) He's 21.
2.) The embarrassment of riches on the backend will not last forever - the future of Hamilton and Kovacevic with this team is very much in doubt.
3.) The Jiricek deal - selling low on a high pick defenseman this early, especially one that lost his job in camp and isn't NHL-established, is not going to return the value you probably think it will.

I don't think he's untouchable and there's no harm in listening, but you better be damn sure that you're getting a major roster upgrade back that is both high-quality and long-term.

Ive read that Utica had a really bad start to the season, and is listed as last in their conference at 5-12; could this be a big reason for his early stats being poor? Maybe hes been struggling with their coaching change?

Id also like to not give up on him yet! I hope he turns out to be a top pair guy for us for a decade+!

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Again - that wasn't the argument, but you continue to show your intellectual dishonesty by continuing to make up an argument to argue against.

your premise was you don't want to trade a forward prospect because we don't have a lot of them and we need to fill out 3rd/4th liners. Yes or no?

 

[Lou Bloom]

There were some people here previously saying that they wouldn’t trade Zetterlund for Meier and I thought that was insane.

I like Gritsyuk a lot and think he’s criminally underrated, but he’s not taking away from our depth because he’s not currently on the depth chart. He’s not in the NHL, he’s not in the AHL - so why are we talking about bringing in a guy to replace him?

And even if we were to trade a roster player for a top-6 forward, the guy we bring in is going to be slotting other players further down the lineup. Mercer/Palat out of the top-6 helps address some of these problems.

And if you need some 4th liners, those aren’t hard to find on the waiver wire or could be had for a 4th/5th. 4th liners are by definition replaceable.

The question is if Brady is that guy and if you can even do it logistically. Brady is u questionably a 1st line talent but I don’t think he’s *THAT* much better than Timo and is pretty significantly below Bratt. Given his age and term he’ll command a lot, and I don’t think even including Palat is enough to make it work cap wise. It would take some serious cap gymnastics to make it work.

When it comes to the salary cap, I don't see the Senators trading Tkachuk until after the season. With a projected salary cap raise plus a handful of contracts falling off (Tatar, Allen, Bastian, etc..), If the Devils traded Mercer that'd only represent a $4M difference, which would basically represent the difference between the cap raise on the lowest projections ($88M - $92.5M).

 

[AfroThunder396]

Now THIS is an interesting one:

 

[TrufleShufle]

Now THIS is an interesting one:

 

[TrufleShufle]

I mean, if an insane opinion is presented, it should be called out as such. I'm not being an asshole? This is a message board. Thats how this works. If you post something that is kind of insane, it will be called out as such.

Never strikes you as odd that you are the only one that needs to remind people "this is how it works" every couple weeks?

 

[dgibb10]

Interestingly Noesen has been so good on the PP, and the PP so good overall that I think you are right on this point.

Tkachuk on the top line could be a significant improvement over Palat though. Now I actually think Palat has been pretty good as a dirty work guy on that line, but he's not bringing much of anything in terms of pure production. I don't know if Tkachuk is as good in terms of dirty work, but I think he would thrive in terms of scoring goals on a line with Bratt and Hughes.

Much like Toffoli last year, what that line doesn't need is someone who can carry the puck, which would compensate for what I assume is a weakness for Tkachuk.

I don't think a high shooting volume guy like Tkachuk helps that line tbh.

Tkachuk is a play driver and volume shooting guy, similar to Meier.

I don't think he makes sense with either Meier-Nico or Jack-Bratt.

You'd be moving either Meier or Tkachuk to line 3 to try and carry that line.

And tbh at that point you're paying a LOT of money and assets (either to Meier or Tkachuk) to have a guy be a 3rd line PP2 guy.

To me a Tkachuk trade would be based on the Matthew trade.

Dougie+Mercer as the core of the offer. Not Nemec

 

[Guttersniped]

Stop the Count!

 

[Bleedred]

Now THIS is an interesting one:

WOAH!

Didn’t he just re-sign there to a pretty deal like a year ago?

Ah, I didn’t read this before posting. Makes sense now.

If he really did want out it would have almost been like how the Sharks traded Hertl in only the second year of his deal. I don’t know if Hertl wanted out so much as the organization just told him to go because they’ll be bad for almost the remainder of his deal.

 

[Devilsgrl35]

Stop the Count!


View attachment 941979

How in the world could one even put specific percentage points on how far a team will go? This is the part of sports betting and statistical analytics that goes too far.

 

[Devils731]

How in the world could one even put specific percentage points on how far a team will go? This is the part of sports betting and statistical analytics that goes too far.

They run 100,000 simulations of the rest of the year/playoffs, then take the results, and move the decimal point until it’s a percentage.

I’d say there is little statistical significance to even the first whole number but it probably lets them not have to explain why I’ve team is higher than another when the whole numbers are identical.

 

[Devilsgrl35]

They run 100,000 simulations of the rest of the year/playoffs, then take the results, and move the decimal point until it’s a percentage.

I’d say there is little statistical significance to even the first whole number but it probably lets them not have to explain why I’ve team is higher than another when the whole numbers are identical.

I think there are just people who like looking at numbers. I'm not a numbers person

 

[None Shall Pass]

I don't think finding someone to play with Jack and Bratt is really all that big an issue.

They're both pacing for like 100 points. It'd be nice if Palat wasn't making so much and was a better player, for sure, but the 3rd dude on that line is way down on the list of priorities for me, anyway.

 

[dgibb10]

How in the world could one even put specific percentage points on how far a team will go? This is the part of sports betting and statistical analytics that goes too far.

Running simulations based on available data

 

[My3Sons]

I don't think finding someone to play with Jack and Bratt is really all that big an issue.

They're both pacing for like 100 points. It'd be nice if Palat wasn't making so much and was a better player, for sure, but the 3rd dude on that line is way down on the list of priorities for me, anyway.

I’d like their linemate to be someone that will create some space for them and dig out loose pucks and have a decent shot. Palat digs out a few pucks but isn’t pushing anyone off a puck or scaring anyone with his shot anymore.

 

[dgibb10]

I'm happy Silayev fell to us (wasn't expecting it at all), but damn I wish we had Dickinson (mostly because I'm able to attend his live games).

 

[Ripshot 43]

How in the world could one even put specific percentage points on how far a team will go? This is the part of sports betting and statistical analytics that goes too far.

I 85% agree with you

 

[devilsblood]

So this guy Sharnazz has a show on TSN? And he's pulling shit straight out his ass?

 

[Devils731]

So this guy Sharnazz has a show on TSN? And he's pulling shit straight out his ass?

No. The show is apparently a lie too.

 

[Saugus]

No. The show is apparently a lie too.

 

[devilsblood]

I don't think a high shooting volume guy like Tkachuk helps that line tbh.

Tkachuk is a play driver and volume shooting guy, similar to Meier.

I don't think he makes sense with either Meier-Nico or Jack-Bratt.

You'd be moving either Meier or Tkachuk to line 3 to try and carry that line.

And tbh at that point you're paying a LOT of money and assets (either to Meier or Tkachuk) to have a guy be a 3rd line PP2 guy.

To me a Tkachuk trade would be based on the Matthew trade.

Dougie+Mercer as the core of the offer. Not Nemec

I think there are couple things here.

1)Tkachuk has 48 5v5 goals the past 2 years plus this one. That's good for 16th in the league during that time Palat has 19. That alone is a tremendous difference. He'd also be a net front presence that Palat does not provide and theoretically should work with Bratt and Hughes. How much he provides in terms of winning puck corner puck battles I'm not sure, but while I think Palat has been OK at it, he's not great at it.

2)I think both Meier and Tkachuk are to some extent "play drivers" because they are volume shooters. They skew the stats because they shoot a ton not because they control play, which I think is the more true use of the term. Hamilton is similar. Now I do think Meier is pretty good pushing the puck up ice by himself(though not as good as I had expected)but I doubt that is a Tkachuk strength. Hughes, and Bratt do control play via puck control so I don't see a ton of cross over between them and Tkachuk.

3)If Tkachuk were to come here, and make our 3rd line a dominant and highly productive one, that's as valuable as a guy contributing to an already productive top 6 line. Often you don't see a ton of difference between the top 6 guys and the 3rd liners. Right now Cotter actually averages more 5v5 toi then Bratt.

4)The PP point is a good one. And again this goes back to how good Noesen has been on it as he has already pushed Meier to the 2nd unit. I feel Tkachuk is more similar to Noesen and could potentially play that role, but I would be very wary of messing with that top unit. Although guys who don't play on the top pp unit, like Meier and Mercer, will often get more 5v5 time, who are 2nd and 3rd in 5v5 toi.

 

[dgibb10]

I think there are couple things here.

1)Tkachuk has 48 5v5 goals the past 2 years plus this one. That's good for 16th in the league during that time Palat has 19. That alone is a tremendous difference. He'd also be a net front presence that Palat does not provide and theoretically should work with Bratt and Hughes. How much he provides in terms of winning puck corner puck battles I'm not sure, but while I think Palat has been OK at it, he's not great at it.

2)I think both Meier and Tkachuk are to some extent "play drivers" because they are volume shooters. They skew the stats because they shoot a ton not because they control play, which I think is the more true use of the term. Hamilton is similar. Now I do think Meier is pretty good pushing the puck up ice by himself(though not as good as I had expected)but I doubt that is a Tkachuk strength. Hughes, and Bratt do control play via puck control so I don't see a ton of cross over between them and Tkachuk.

3)If Tkachuk were to come here, and make our 3rd line a dominant and highly productive one, that's as valuable as a guy contributing to an already productive top 6 line. Often you don't see a ton of difference between the top 6 guys and the 3rd liners. Right now Cotter actually averages more 5v5 toi then Bratt.

4)The PP point is a good one. And again this goes back to how good Noesen has been on it as he has already pushed Meier to the 2nd unit. I feel Tkachuk is more similar to Noesen and could potentially play that role, but I would be very wary of messing with that top unit. Although guys who don't play on the top pp unit, like Meier and Mercer, will often get more 5v5 time, who are 2nd and 3rd in 5v5 toi.

I just am not sure 8 mill and a large amount of assets is worth the squeeze for what we're adding in Tkachuk

If we didn't have Meier, I'd be all over it.

But it just feels like trying to fit as many stars as possible in, which doesn't seem like the solution to me

 

[devilsblood]

I just am not sure 8 mill and a large amount of assets is worth the squeeze for what we're adding in Tkachuk

If we didn't have Meier, I'd be all over it.

But it just feels like trying to fit as many stars as possible in, which doesn't seem like the solution to me

I kind of find the whole thing to be a fantasy land discussion. Just seems highly unlikely.

And even if he does wants out and forces a trade the demand from around the league would be significant. I agree the price may be higher then we'd be willing to pay.

But Brady on the top line with Hughes and Bratt would be something.

 

[TheBeerNerd]

So this guy Sharnazz has a show on TSN? And he's pulling shit straight out his ass?

Apparently people in Sens Twitter/X are bitter that Brady's getting trade rumors and wanted to start shit with a division rival.