Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part II

[barriers]

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

oh boy

the good news is we don't have a back-to-back for like 3 weeks

 

[Bleedred]

I agree. Can we now admit MM was worth 4-5M on a 5yr deal?

I don’t think he was, if not only because he only showed that level of play for roughly a year.

If he didn’t maintain that level of play the next year then that contract would have sucked and been overpayment.

Hypothetically, I thought maybe he’d get $3.2-$3.5 million per or something around what Haula is getting on this contract.

We usually wind up giving these guys less than we think they’ll get. A lot of us thought Bratt would get at least $8 million per and were mad when we didn’t give him a long term deal with $8 million in the summer of 2022.

We wound up giving him slightly less a whole season later.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

one thing that sucks with the Cap Wages site vs Capfriendly is they don't have the overall totals in future years, unless I am missing it. Luke and Kovacevic are the only players of note that need re-signing. Lazar I guess too but he won't be expensive either way. We'll also need a back-up goalie if Allen is not re-signed.

We're at ~$76 million committed with 10 forwards + 4 DMen+ Markstrom. Let's hope the cap jumps up to around $95 million as Friedman predicted, it would leave us ~$19 million in space. I would imagine Luke gets $8-$8.5 (Brock Faber comparable) if he signs longterm. Hopefully he takes the same contract as his brother. That leaves $10-11 million for 3-4 forwards and 2 DMen and a backup goalie. Going to be tight. NEmec likely gets one of those spots and he is cheap.

That is why I think dumping Palat this summer is crucial, even if it costs a 2nd round pick or something. He has a 10-team NTC starting July 1. But that $6 million in cap space can be so much better allocated elsewhere.

 

[theoptimist]

I don’t think he was, if not only because he only showed that level of play for roughly a year.

If he didn’t maintain that level of play the next year then that contract would have sucked and been overpayment.

Hypothetically, I thought maybe he’d get $3.2-$3.5 million per or something around what Haula is getting on this contract.

We usually wind up giving these guys less than we think they’ll get. A lot of us thought Bratt would get at least $8 million per and were mad when we didn’t give him a long term deal with $8 million in the summer of 2022.

We wound up giving him slightly less a whole season later.

That makes sense to me. You have him closer to Dakota Joshua (3.2M) but I think he's closer to Pavel Zacha (4.7M) and Jason Dickinson (4.9M). MM had elite faceoff % too.

 

[Omar Little]

one thing that sucks with the Cap Wages site vs Capfriendly is they don't have the overall totals in future years, unless I am missing it. Luke and Kovacevic are the only players of note that need re-signing. Lazar I guess too but he won't be expensive either way. We'll also need a back-up goalie if Allen is not re-signed.

We're at ~$76 million committed with 10 forwards + 4 DMen+ Markstrom. Let's hope the cap jumps up to around $95 million as Friedman predicted, it would leave us ~$19 million in space. I would imagine Luke gets $8-$8.5 (Brock Faber comparable) if he signs longterm. Hopefully he takes the same contract as his brother. That leaves $10-11 million for 3-4 forwards and 2 DMen and a backup goalie. Going to be tight. NEmec likely gets one of those spots and he is cheap.

That is why I think dumping Palat this summer is crucial, even if it costs a 2nd round pick or something. He has a 10-team NTC starting July 1. But that $6 million in cap space can be so much better allocated elsewhere.

The other option would be bridging Luke...which doesnt necessarily make economic sense long term but could be sequenced with either Palat or Hamilton's natural contract expiry date. The extra ~$3m you'd get for the next two years could be helpful in building out team depth when you otherwise have a highly competitive roster

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

The other option would be bridging Luke...which doesnt necessarily make economic sense long term but could be sequenced with either Palat or Hamilton's natural contract expiry date. The extra ~$3m you'd get for the next two years could be helpful in building out team depth when you otherwise have a highly competitive roster

while that is definitely true, it will just make Luke more expensive in the future. I would try and get him signed ASAP because I think the longer the season goes on, the more expensive he might get.

 

[My3Sons]

while that is definitely true, it will just make Luke more expensive in the future. I would try and get him signed ASAP because I think the longer the season goes on, the more expensive he might get.

I'd be shocked if the team didn't reach out in the offseason to open talks on an extension. Hopefully there is common ground and the hold up is just waiting to see what the cap is rising to. I'd be disappointed if they are apart on money or term.

 

[TheBeerNerd]

Bridging Luke would be stupid. What we're seeing now is likely just a taste of what's to come, and that's something you want to lock up long term, as soon as humanly possible. He'll end up being Stevens or Niedermayer tier and possibly beyond that.

Gun may be back on the menu, boys and girls

 

[Devs3cups]

I don’t think they’re bridging Luke. It’ll most likely be a long term deal.

 

[MasterofGrond]

both sides should and probably are targeting a long term deal

I’d rather give up picks to make salary space than risk the bridge. Team isn’t building for the next 2 years, it’s building for the next 10

 

[Triumph]

one thing that sucks with the Cap Wages site vs Capfriendly is they don't have the overall totals in future years, unless I am missing it. Luke and Kovacevic are the only players of note that need re-signing. Lazar I guess too but he won't be expensive either way. We'll also need a back-up goalie if Allen is not re-signed.

We're at ~$76 million committed with 10 forwards + 4 DMen+ Markstrom. Let's hope the cap jumps up to around $95 million as Friedman predicted, it would leave us ~$19 million in space. I would imagine Luke gets $8-$8.5 (Brock Faber comparable) if he signs longterm. Hopefully he takes the same contract as his brother. That leaves $10-11 million for 3-4 forwards and 2 DMen and a backup goalie. Going to be tight. NEmec likely gets one of those spots and he is cheap.

That is why I think dumping Palat this summer is crucial, even if it costs a 2nd round pick or something. He has a 10-team NTC starting July 1. But that $6 million in cap space can be so much better allocated elsewhere.

Palat and Hamilton can't be here next year, that's it. If they have to retain significantly on either one, that works just fine, if Palat has to go on perma-LTIR that's a shame but it would also make sense. They're totally fine otherwise.

 

[MasterofGrond]

People trying to preemptively dismantle the best PP in the league smdh

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I think the thing with Hamilton is if he keeps having a nice year points wise, he might still have positive value around the league.

But if you are going to pay Luke $8mill/year, he kind of has to be on PP1. Yes I realize he does not have the shot that Hamilton does, but he has other positives that Dougie does not

I go back to the old Belichick adage. You'd rather get rid of a guy a year too soon than a year too late. He would only have 3 years left, and a 10-team no trade list.

 

[TrufleShufle]

Can we finally complain out the Palat contract being a big pain?

Or is it still #PalatNeverStoppedUs

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Palat was never as bad as he has been this year. We also weren't as up against the cap as we are now. So yes, complain away!!!

 

[My3Sons]

Can we finally complain out the Palat contract being a big pain?

Or is it still #PalatNeverStoppedUs

You go back to when it was signed and it didn't seem so egregious. The team was bad and who expected them to be so close to the cap in two years. To be fair, NJ has also added Pesce and Dillon and are paying a backup goalie almost $2 mil per. In the scheme of things, Palat is the only really bad contract for NJ. The current cap situation is a combination of impatience (which I get once the 2022-23 season happened) and the need to add guys on retirement contracts since drafting hasn't delivered enough good depth players.

 

[bossram]

I think the thing with Hamilton is if he keeps having a nice year points wise, he might still have positive value around the league.

But if you are going to pay Luke $8mill/year, he kind of has to be on PP1. Yes I realize he does not have the shot that Hamilton does, but he has other positives that Dougie does not

I go back to the old Belichick adage. You'd rather get rid of a guy a year too soon than a year too late. He would only have 3 years left, and a 10-team no trade list.

This has been a hobby horse of mine for a while (and I am of the contingent that likes Dougie).

But they should absolutely be exploring moving him before the wheels fall off. They have a cadre of young, offensive defensemen behind him.

Palat was never as bad as he has been this year. We also weren't as up against the cap as we are now. So yes, complain away!!!

Bad signing from the very beginning, as I said at the time.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

This is good at least. His numbers were ugly to start the year. Looks like he has a minor injury now though.

 

[TheBeerNerd]

Dylan Cozens might be on the move. Is he able to play on the wing? If not, what is his contract situation like? I don't want a bottom six guy taking up too much cap.

 

[TrufleShufle]

You go back to when it was signed and it didn't seem so egregious. The team was bad and who expected them to be so close to the cap in two years. To be fair, NJ has also added Pesce and Dillon and are paying a backup goalie almost $2 mil per. In the scheme of things, Palat is the only really bad contract for NJ. The current cap situation is a combination of impatience (which I get once the 2022-23 season happened) and the need to add guys on retirement contracts since drafting hasn't delivered enough good depth players.

I get it, I wasn't a huge fan of it when it was signed, but it was whatever.

Last year and all summer though, it definitely was obvious his contract was a problem that would only get worse. There is no telling what we could have done with that cap over the summer, or if we did nothing and picked up another Cotter type player until we saw what happened around the league, and were able to use that cap more effectively.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Dylan Cozens might be on the move. Is he able to play on the wing? If not, what is his contract situation like? I don't want a bottom six guy taking up too much cap.

he makes $7.1 million forever. We can't afford it unfortunately.

 

[TheBeerNerd]

he makes $7.1 million forever. We can't afford it unfortunately.

Oh then screw that.

 

[My3Sons]

I get it, I wasn't a huge fan of it when it was signed, but it was whatever.

Last year and all summer though, it definitely was obvious his contract was a problem that would only get worse. There is no telling what we could have done with that cap over the summer, or if we did nothing and picked up another Cotter type player until we saw what happened around the league, and were able to use that cap more effectively.

As I recall, the buzz at the time was that the Isles were in on Palat and despite that being a pipe dream for them given they had no cap at the time I don't doubt it helped drive the price up along with NJ still being a bad team at the time. At $6 mil per that should have been a two or three year deal, not five. Maybe at $5 mil per it could have been a four year deal.

 

[dgibb10]

one thing that sucks with the Cap Wages site vs Capfriendly is they don't have the overall totals in future years, unless I am missing it. Luke and Kovacevic are the only players of note that need re-signing. Lazar I guess too but he won't be expensive either way. We'll also need a back-up goalie if Allen is not re-signed.

We're at ~$76 million committed with 10 forwards + 4 DMen+ Markstrom. Let's hope the cap jumps up to around $95 million as Friedman predicted, it would leave us ~$19 million in space. I would imagine Luke gets $8-$8.5 (Brock Faber comparable) if he signs longterm. Hopefully he takes the same contract as his brother. That leaves $10-11 million for 3-4 forwards and 2 DMen and a backup goalie. Going to be tight. NEmec likely gets one of those spots and he is cheap.

That is why I think dumping Palat this summer is crucial, even if it costs a 2nd round pick or something. He has a 10-team NTC starting July 1. But that $6 million in cap space can be so much better allocated elsewhere.

This is a 92 mill cap baseline. Pretty easy to fill a pair of 4th liners and a backup G with 4 mill (4c 1.5, BG 1.5, 4RW 1)

Margins for change

-Cap higher (as much as +3 mill)
-We want to resign Kovacevic (as much as -3 mill compared to an ELC likely around 4 mill)
-Luke costs slightly more or less (+/- 500k unless we bridge which I would hate)
-We want to spend more on a 3 mill ish backup goalie (-1.5 mill)
-We go expensive on a 3 mill ish 3/4C type (-1.5 mill)
-Gritysuk burns the ELC year this year and then demands big money (-1.5/2.5 mill)

If we move Palat it accomadates basically everything that could happen in the worst case (not worst case for Kovy but in terms of spending money).

If the cap goes up and we move Palat we can basically pay for everything possible. (unless you want to go for an expensive UFA winger which I personally would hate)

Also of note: ELC bonuses.

Only luke is likely to get any this year, totalling a max of 850k (unless he reaches any of the following for a type B bonus, which I don't think is likely)