Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part II

[NJDfan86]

I’d rather go for Giroux. Stick him next to Jack/Bratt and on PP2.

IDK, Batherson is a RH shot with size who can skate and score - at 26 he fits perfectly with the age of our core and right on the Jack/Bratt line. I wouldn’t want to trade a 23 year old for Giroux.

This wouldn’t rule out other moves either way, since it was 1-1 and he is only marginally more expensive.

 

[Emperoreddy]

We would need a third team to retain on Giroux to fit him.

We really aren't in a good place cap wise to make additions.

I'm not trading Mercer for Giroux

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

IDK, Batherson is a RH shot with size who can skate and score - at 26 he fits perfectly with the age of our core and right on the Jack/Bratt line. I wouldn’t want to trade a 23 year old for Giroux.

This wouldn’t rule out other moves either way, since it was 1-1 and he is only marginally more expensive.

I wouldn’t trade Mercer for him. I assume he’s going to dictate where he wants to play (maybe it’s just staying in Ottawa), so that would lower his value.

 

[Lou Bloom]

Not at the NHL level right now. If he's not playing on the PP, you can find much better value elsewhere

He played well in his short NHL stint and has been great in Utica so far. He's passed every test with flying colors since being drafted.

 

[dgibb10]

He played well in his short NHL stint and has been great in Utica so far. He's passed every test with flying colors since being drafted.

He did not play well in the NHL.

He played incredibly sheltered minutes and struggled against anything beyond 4th liners, and even against 4th liners he still only played them about even at best.

 

[Lou Bloom]

He did not play well in the NHL.

You could make an argument he played sheltered minutes but I don't think you can say he didn't play well.

 

[dgibb10]

You could make an argument he played sheltered minutes but I don't think you can say he didn't play well.

He didn't play well.

Outside of the PP he was ineffective and did not look to be NHL caliber.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

He didn't play well.

Outside of the PP he was ineffective and did not look to be NHL caliber.

He played well and definitely looked NHL caliber. He was forced onto a righty-righty pairing with a guy that was massively struggling. My eyes told me he was quite good, and I value that more than advanced stats in tiny samples.

 

[Eggtimers]

Sorry if it’s been talked about a lot already. Would something like Nemec and Gritsyuk plus ? be enough for Tkuchuk ? If it was enough , would we even be able to keep him cap wise ? Or would someone like Mercer have to go in the deal or a separate deal ?

 

[Lou Bloom]

He didn't play well.

Outside of the PP he was ineffective and did not look to be NHL caliber

Disagree, he played a solid composed game, I was actually questioning how his game would transition from the NCAA level and thought he could be exposed in a bigger, faster, more physical game but he surprised me and showed that his skillset would transition much smoother than I anticipated. If anything Nemec has shown more defensive holes but you don't seem to have the same ire towards him, claiming him to be a PP QB who doesn't bring much else.

 

[dgibb10]

Disagree, he played a solid composed game, I was actually questioning how his game would transition from the NCAA level and thought he could be exposed in a bigger, faster, more physical game but he surprised me and showed that his skillset would transition much smoother than I anticipated. If anything Nemec has shown more defensive holes but you don't seem to have the same ire towards him, claiming him to be a PP QB who doesn't bring much else.

I watched Simon Nemec play 1200 minutes of quality hockey against normal competition and do well.

Casey is the shiny new toy, and it's easy to see how you can get fooled when he's getting bailed out by the goalies behind him on a small sample size, playing almost exclusively against other teams depth, a large portion of his other ice time comes when the other team has 4 guys on the ice, and he gets a small sample size shooting heater.

He really did not belong in the NHL this year

 

[Lou Bloom]

I watched Simon Nemec play 1200 minutes of quality hockey against normal competition and do well.

Casey is the shiny new toy, and it's easy to see how you can get fooled when he's getting bailed out by the goalies behind him on a small sample size, playing almost exclusively against other teams depth, a large portion of his other ice time comes when the other team has 4 guys on the ice, and he gets a small sample size shooting heater.

He really did not belong in the NHL this year

I've watched Casey since the USNTDP, I thought he would struggle a bit this season at the NHL level and was surprised that he performed as well as he did and looked like the traits that made him successful at Michigan would translate better than expected. I never once said Casey's stats was the reason I was impressed with his play, His ability to maneuver around the ice and use his skating and IQ to make good plays is what impressed me. To say he didn't belong at the NHL level is simply not true, the reason he isn't in the NHL is because the Devils have a three good veteran RDs.

 

[dgibb10]

I've watched Casey since the USNTDP, I thought he would struggle a bit this season at the NHL level and was surprised that he performed as well as he did and looked like the traits that made him successful at Michigan would translate better than expected. I never once said Casey's stats was the reason I was impressed with his play, His ability to maneuver around the ice and use his skating and IQ to make good plays is what impressed me. To say he didn't belong at the NHL level is simply not true, the reason he isn't in the NHL is because the Devils have a three good veteran RDs.

He got sent down for Danill Misyul.

He struggled. A lot.

Outside of goaltending behind him to cover his mistakes, shooting luck to give highlights you remember, and either dogshit comp or the other team having 4 guys on the ice to make it a lot easier to do things, it was bad.

It is the perfect combo to fool the "eye test" person. And even the eye test wasn't that great.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

He got sent down for Danill Misyul.

He struggled. A lot.

Outside of goaltending behind him to cover his mistakes, shooting luck to give highlights you remember, and either dogshit comp or the other team having 4 guys on the ice to make it a lot easier to do things, it was bad.

It is the perfect combo to fool the "eye test" person. And even the eye test wasn't that great.

Nope. He was fine and Nemec sucked.

 

[NJDevs26]

It actually sounds like Nemec is struggling in the AHL too, or at least is playing sloppily so it's for the best he's there atm

 

[dgibb10]

Nope. He was fine and Nemec sucked.

They both sucked this year.

The problem with Casey is he struggled while being sheltered as much as you can possibly shelter a dman.

 

[Lou Bloom]

He got sent down for Danill Misyul.

He struggled. A lot.

Outside of goaltending behind him to cover his mistakes, shooting luck to give highlights you remember, and either dogshit comp or the other team having 4 guys on the ice to make it a lot easier to do things, it was bad.

It is the perfect combo to fool the "eye test" person. And even the eye test wasn't that great.

No, he got sent down because Luke and Pesce were ready to come back and they wanted to start getting him reps in Utica. It's not a coincidence he was sent down when Luke and Pesce's returns were announced.

He didn't, He was sheltered but he showed the same poise, puck moving ability and skill that allowed him to succeed at Michigan.

I've already told you that I've watched Casey since USNTDP and that I don't let points (especially short sample size points) cloud my judgement on how a player performs. You can keep claiming I"m just stat watching or watching highlights but neither is true.

Even if you're into analytics, you do realize an extremely short sample size in data is not very useful. "Eye Test" is going to almost always be a better gauge for talent in a short sample size, You'd need multiple seasons worth of data to have a good read on a player with analytics.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

They both sucked this year.

The problem with Casey is he struggled while being sheltered as much as you can possibly shelter a dman.

He didn’t struggle. And I’d say literally the opposite of that happened. He was thrown onto a righty-righty pairing in his first taste of the NHL. And it was with a 20 year old playing like dogshit. You can shelter a dman more by playing them with a veteran or with someone that is the correct handedness. He got neither of those things.

 

[dgibb10]

No, he got sent down because Luke and Pesce were ready to come back and they wanted to start getting him reps in Utica. It's not a coincidence he was sent down when Luke and Pesce's returns were announced.

He didn't, He was sheltered but he showed the same poise, puck moving ability and skill that allowed him to succeed at Michigan.

I've already told you that I've watched Casey since USNTDP and that I don't let points (especially short sample size points) cloud my judgement on how a player performs. You can keep claiming I"m just stat watching or watching highlights but neither is true.

Even if you're into analytics, you do realize an extremely short sample size in data is not very useful. "Eye Test" is going to almost always be a better gauge for talent in a short sample size, You'd need multiple seasons worth of data to have a good read on a player with analytics.

Except he got sent down before they were back.

"I've already told you that I've watched Casey since USNTDP and that I don't let points (especially short sample size points) cloud my judgement on how a player performs. You can keep claiming I"m just stat watching or watching highlights but neither is true."

I didn't claim either of those things. I claimed that your "eye test" can be very easily tricked. If most of what you remember seeing is Casey being able to cook with the other team having 4 guys on the ice, if, because of luck, the good things end up in the other teams net more than they should, and the bad things end up in your own net less than they should. And again, if your "eye test" comes against bad competition (which is virtually impossible to keep track of visually when watching games). All of these things cloud your vision. That and you self admittedly being a guy who's followed casey for years (bias) cloud your vision.



"No, he got sent down because Luke and Pesce were ready to come back and they wanted to start getting him reps in Utica. It's not a coincidence he was sent down when Luke and Pesce's returns were announced."

Then why did he get sent down before they came back. Why did they play Danill Misyul instead of him vs Tampa?

 

[RSeen]

Tuch would be awesome but I think Buffalo would ask for a ridiculous return to move him. Same with McCann, can't see Seattle trading him for anything short of a massive overpayment with two years left after this one.

Don't really love any of the other options, If we're looking at top 6, I'd prefer Vatrano who's cheaper, younger and should only cost you around a 2nd round + small add. Otherwise focus on the bottom 6 with players like O Connor or Sturm who are quality bottom 6 adds for cheap and in O Connors case being from the area could be a cheap multiple year signing in the offseason.

Can't see Tuch being moved.

Palmeri or Vatrano seem like somewhat realistic option. Nelson would be a good add IMO but price could be too high.

 

[dgibb10]

He didn’t struggle. And I’d say literally the opposite of that happened. He was thrown onto a righty-righty pairing in his first taste of the NHL. And it was with a 20 year old playing like dogshit. You can shelter a dman more by playing them with a veteran or with someone that is the correct handedness. He got neither of those things.

Casey also played like dogshit.

If you guys want to lie to yourselves about how casey played, go ahead.

 

[Emperoreddy]

It actually sounds like Nemec is struggling in the AHL too, or at least is playing sloppily so it's for the best he's there atm

Probably doing a bit of sulking. He will figure it out.

Him struggling before being sent down probably had more to do with Casey then anyone wants to admit.

RAW rookie on his offside he needed to cover for. That's a hard assignment.

 

[Lou Bloom]

Except he got sent down before they were back.

"I've already told you that I've watched Casey since USNTDP and that I don't let points (especially short sample size points) cloud my judgement on how a player performs. You can keep claiming I"m just stat watching or watching highlights but neither is true."

I didn't claim either of those things. I claimed that your "eye test" can be very easily tricked. If most of what you remember seeing is Casey being able to cook with the other team having 4 guys on the ice, if, because of luck, the good things end up in the other teams net more than they should, and the bad things end up in your own net less than they should. And again, if your "eye test" comes against bad competition (which is virtually impossible to keep track of visually when watching games). All of these things cloud your vision. That and you self admittedly being a guy who's followed casey for years (bias) cloud your vision.



"No, he got sent down because Luke and Pesce were ready to come back and they wanted to start getting him reps in Utica. It's not a coincidence he was sent down when Luke and Pesce's returns were announced."

Then why did he get sent down before they came back. Why did they play Danill Misyul instead of him vs Tampa?

In terms of why he got sent down, probably because he was playing his off hand, the team knew he was going to be playing in the AHL once Pesce and Luke returned, and they wanted to reward/get a quick look at what Misyul looks at the NHL level with a 1 game callup.

I never once brought up Casey's PP time, I expected him to have an easier time on the PP. What impressed me was his 5v5 play where he did a good job using his skating, poise and vision to make smart plays both offensively and defensively.

You keep bringing up the "eye test" being ineffective but what other method would you use to judge his play? 8 games and under a 100 minutes of 5v5 analytics? You're not going to get any reliable data from such a short sample size vs actually watching the game and how they play.

Probably doing a bit of sulking. He will figure it out.

Him struggling before being sent down probably had more to do with Casey then anyone wants to admit.

RAW rookie on his offside he needed to cover for. That's a hard assignment.

Considering Nemec was the one making the more rookie level mistakes on that pair, I don't see how you can contribute Nemec's struggles to Casey. Casey wasn't the one getting caught out of position.

 

[dgibb10]

In terms of why he got sent down, probably because he was playing his off hand, the team knew he was going to be playing in the AHL once Pesce and Luke returned, and they wanted to reward/get a quick look at what Misyul looks at the NHL level with a 1 game callup.

I never once brought up Casey's PP time, I expected him to have an easier time on the PP. What impressed me was his 5v5 play where he did a good job using his skating, poise and vision to make smart plays both offensively and defensively.

You keep bringing up the "eye test" being ineffective but what other method would you use to judge his play? 8 games and under a 100 minutes of 5v5 analytics? You're not going to get any reliable data from such a short sample size vs actually watching the game and how they play.

Do you think I didn't watch the games?

The eye test is valuable, but there are a number of very clear tells that mislead people to overrate guys.

Specifically goaltending.

Casey got ridiculous goaltending behind him to cover up a bunch of his mistakes. Those mistakes get forgotten (especially when you have a bias) when the goalie makes a save and they don't show the replay of the mistake to you 5 times.

He was truly AWFUL defensively tho playing against mostly other teams depth.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Casey also played like dogshit.

If you guys want to lie to yourselves about how casey played, go ahead.

No, you are spewing bullshit.

“As much as the goals and everything are great, if his game defensively is a mess and it's a fire drill when he's on the ice, he's not going to be able to stay here. But his defensive game, he plays with great intelligence."

"He doesn't complicate things for himself or his teammates," he added. "I've seen a lot of undersized defensemen try to make their way in the NHL, and not many of them have the intelligence and awareness to not complicate the game. ... It's been fun to watch that, it's been very impressive for a young guy." - Sheldon Keefe

He played well in a very difficult situation.