Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason part II

[Emperoreddy]

Markstrom is not going to cost the 10th overall

 

[Dialamo]

Markstrom is not going to cost the 10th overall

I'll consider Markstrom for a conditional 2027 7th round pick at 50% retention. Calgary may have to add to grab Fitz's attention though.

 

[My3Sons]

Markstrom is not going to cost the 10th overall

I'm not sure if Calgary actually moves Markstrom this offseason absent a fairly substatntial overpay. Who plays goal for them next year if they trade him now?

 

[Torts]

I'm not sure if Calgary actually moves Markstrom this offseason absent a fairly substatntial overpay. Who plays goal for them next year if they trade him now?

Vladar and Wolf most likely.

 

[OmNomNom]

I'm not sure if Calgary actually moves Markstrom this offseason absent a fairly substatntial overpay. Who plays goal for them next year if they trade him now?

dustin wolf, or any of the other free agent goalies out there, perhaps?

if they wait, desperate buyers are going to find solutions elsewhere

 

[Homedresser]

That's an insane take to prefer Holtz and a 2nd over 10th overall.

Goalie is a volatile position whether you go cheap or not. Grubauer in Seattle, Kuemper in Washington, Jarry in Pittsburgh, Campbell in Edmonton, Husso in Detroit, Korpisalo in Ottawa, Merzlikins in Columbus, Gibson in Anaheim, all of those teams are regretting those contracts. Carey Price was the best goalie in the NHL and signed an extension at 29, if it wasn't for LTIR that contract would be a disaster.

We've seen teams make the playoffs consistently without spending on goaltending. Carolina, Vegas, Edmonton, Toronto, Colorado with Georgiev. There's more than one way to build a roster, pouring your assets into your forwards and defense and going cheaper on goalie is also a valid team building strategy.

Holtz has proven he play at the NHL level. Like it or not 10OA is a crapshoot. No gurantee the player you pick ever cracks the NHL. People are overvauling #10 so much. It's not a top 5 pick.

 

[theoptimist]

Holtz has proven he play at the NHL level. Like it or not 10OA is a crapshoot. No gurantee the player you pick ever cracks the NHL. People are overvauling #10 so much. It's not a top 5 pick.

Nail Yakupov

 

[Bleedred]

Personally, I see the Devils getting a B tier goalie this summer. Someone who is clearly an NHL starter, but not a top tier guy.

- If I'm Nashville, I hang onto Saros. Askarov isn't ready.
- I feel similar about Markstrom / Wolfe, but who knows what Calgary is thinking.
- I think Boston sends Ullmark to the west.
- Toronto is looking for a goalie - maybe that takes Binnington out of the picture?
- Maybe Minny trades Gustavsson, but they probably shouldn't. Wallstedt isn't ready to be a full time starter, and Fleury shouldn't be a 1B at this stage of his career. Gustavsson also didn't have the greatest season last year.

Meanwhile...
Gibson is looking for a home.
Vejmelka could be available.
Merzlikins is available.

That's where I think Fitz ends up just given the market. If that's where the market shakes out, though, I'd prefer to roll with Kakhonen + Allen and deploy assets differently. Go find a mid pair LD and / or some wings with physicality. Maybe upgrade bottom six centers. Juice isn't worth the squeeze if you're not getting a top tier goalie.

If Fitz goes with Kakhonen + Allen, though, I think he's fired if it doesn't work. Getting one of the others at least show that Fitz brought in someone who is a known (if mediocre) quantity.

Let Gibson rot on Anaheim. He’s shit. If he’s looking for a home outside of Anaheim, then he needs to ask them to buy him out (because he’s probably nearly as useless as Schneider when he got bought out in 2020, you didn’t see anybody wanting him on that contract) or he can simply ask them to terminate his contract or retiring is an option. He’s washed up and he’s got 3 years left on his deal and makes more than quite a few goalies who are much better than he is.

Vejmelka is meh. Better than Gibson and the contract doesn’t suck.

Elvis also has too much term left. I’m not convinced he’s worse than Gibson though. I wonder if Columbus buys him out or tries to start fresh with a clean slate with him since there’s now new management, and it seemed the last management team is who wanted him out.

I don’t think any of them are known quantities, other than Gibson 5+ years ago now.

Elvis has had a couple of good seasons though.

I still think it’s going to be Markstrom. And it won’t cost the 10th overall.

It seems the bridge has possibly been burned in Calgary with him after some of the comments he made later in the year.

 

[Devils731]

Holtz has proven he play at the NHL level. Like it or not 10OA is a crapshoot. No gurantee the player you pick ever cracks the NHL. People are overvauling #10 so much. It's not a top 5 pick.

Random numbers, this is a 5 or this is a 10, are only helpful in an abstract.

In this case we have a specific #10 for this draft. I’m not a draft expert but to me the 2nd/3rd tier style guy that you may normally expect at a 5th overall will be available at 10th overall. Most of the guys we are going to see go around 10 this year will have projectable physical traits and plus level production for their age profile; so I think this years 10 OA is more valuable than a 10 OA in a vacuum.

——————-

On the basis of your reasoning teams should basically trade all their draft picks so that they get back “sure things” rather than “crapshoots”. Most assuredly any team following that strategy would find itself cap heavy and mediocre in short order.

 

[Bleedred]

Vladar and Wolf most likely.

is Vladar signed for next year? I’d also guess it’s either these two or some other guy with Wolf.

Maybe Calgary is the team that brings in Gibson (if anyone does) or Elvis? Or they go with Kahkonen/Wolf.

Apparently Vladar is signed for next year.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Personally, I see the Devils getting a B tier goalie this summer. Someone who is clearly an NHL starter, but not a top tier guy.

- If I'm Nashville, I hang onto Saros. Askarov isn't ready.
- I feel similar about Markstrom / Wolfe, but who knows what Calgary is thinking.
- I think Boston sends Ullmark to the west.
- Toronto is looking for a goalie - maybe that takes Binnington out of the picture?
- Maybe Minny trades Gustavsson, but they probably shouldn't. Wallstedt isn't ready to be a full time starter, and Fleury shouldn't be a 1B at this stage of his career. Gustavsson also didn't have the greatest season last year.

Meanwhile...
Gibson is looking for a home.
Vejmelka could be available.
Merzlikins is available.

That's where I think Fitz ends up just given the market. If that's where the market shakes out, though, I'd prefer to roll with Kakhonen + Allen and deploy assets differently. Go find a mid pair LD and / or some wings with physicality. Maybe upgrade bottom six centers. Juice isn't worth the squeeze if you're not getting a top tier goalie.

If Fitz goes with Kakhonen + Allen, though, I think he's fired if it doesn't work. Getting one of the others at least show that Fitz brought in someone who is a known (if mediocre) quantity.

Fitzgerald has done an outstanding job. I don't think it's in jeopardy nor should it be.

Regardless of goaltending, which Fitzgerald has tried to fix many times, in many ways.

Let's try this. Who would we say were the top 10-12 goalies in the league this year? Lots of names would pop up, but mostly we'd agree upon guys like Hellebuyck, Demko, Swayman, Bobrovsky, Shesterkin, Binnington, Saros, Oettinger. Maybe we could throw in names like Kotchetkov, Hill, Thompson, Jarry. I'll even give you Ulmark and Markstrom.

Now let's ask this:

How many of these names have changed teams/organizations in the past three seasons?

If you answered ZERO, you are correct.

This is because teams do not trade great goalies, and rarely do they even reach free agency. Fitzgerald started his reign in New Jersey with a big hole in goal, and now he has a slightly smaller hole in goal. Overall, Fitzgerald has been exceptional, but we can't blame him for not acquiring a player who was not even available to acquire.

 

[Forge]

Markstrom is not going to cost the 10th overall

Mostly, I agree with you. I don't think that is going to happen.

However, I'm not going to rule out some sort of Frankenstein type deal that results in the Flames getting #10 when this is all said and done. If they are kicking back Vancouver's first, the value starts to look a lot more in line and I don't think that's its that far of a jump from being workable. At least from a value perspective. Fitz still shouldn't want to do it, but the "value" isn't wrong. Calgary perhaps adds something else in just to give it a little extra oomph and I can see how that happens. Throw in Dallas' second? Maybe this works for Fitz. If he wants more edge and physicality up front? Well, they have Pospisil who will certainly throw his shit around.


Arizona traded 27, 34, 45 for 11. So we are talking 10 & 28 here, which is comparable to two of those picks. Markstrom valued at two early seconds certainly isn't insane imo, especially if they are retaining.

So again, I think the "value" can be done where Markstrom / 10 are moved. But giving up #10 to send Calgary two second round picks worth of value just seems like really bad process to me.

 

[bossram]

Mostly, I agree with you. I don't think that is going to happen.

However, I'm not going to rule out some sort of Frankenstein type deal that results in the Flames getting #10 when this is all said and done. If they are kicking back Vancouver's first, the value starts to look a lot more in line and I don't think that's its that far of a jump from being workable. At least from a value perspective. Fitz still shouldn't want to do it, but the "value" isn't wrong. Calgary perhaps adds something else in just to give it a little extra oomph and I can see how that happens. Throw in Dallas' second? Maybe this works for Fitz. If he wants more edge and physicality up front? Well, they have Pospisil who will certainly throw his shit around.


Arizona traded 27, 34, 45 for 11. So we are talking 10 & 28 here, which is comparable to two of those picks. Markstrom valued at two early seconds certainly isn't insane imo, especially if they are retaining.

So again, I think the "value" can be done where Markstrom / 10 are moved. But giving up #10 to send Calgary two second round picks worth of value just seems like really bad process to me.

100%. I get what you're saying. 10th for Markstrom + 27th doesn't look like really bad "value", but it's a horrible way to utilize by far their most valuable trade chip.

If they're trading the 10th, it has to be a for a prime-age, quality player. Not a Markstrom that's held together with duct date by every All-Star break and shats it once the playoffs roll around.

This draft has a very good crop of prospects at the top. Use the 10th in the draft. Most of the trade targets mentioned in this thread would be a horrible use of the 10th.

 

[Billdo]

Personally, I see the Devils getting a B tier goalie this summer. Someone who is clearly an NHL starter, but not a top tier guy.

- If I'm Nashville, I hang onto Saros. Askarov isn't ready.
- I feel similar about Markstrom / Wolfe, but who knows what Calgary is thinking.
- I think Boston sends Ullmark to the west.
- Toronto is looking for a goalie - maybe that takes Binnington out of the picture?
- Maybe Minny trades Gustavsson, but they probably shouldn't. Wallstedt isn't ready to be a full time starter, and Fleury shouldn't be a 1B at this stage of his career. Gustavsson also didn't have the greatest season last year.

Meanwhile...
Gibson is looking for a home.
Vejmelka could be available.
Merzlikins is available.

That's where I think Fitz ends up just given the market. If that's where the market shakes out, though, I'd prefer to roll with Kakhonen + Allen and deploy assets differently. Go find a mid pair LD and / or some wings with physicality. Maybe upgrade bottom six centers. Juice isn't worth the squeeze if you're not getting a top tier goalie.

If Fitz goes with Kakhonen + Allen, though, I think he's fired if it doesn't work. Getting one of the others at least show that Fitz brought in someone who is a known (if mediocre) quantity.

I think if we pull a Vanecek type move to pair with Allen it might be alright. I'm with you though, top level guys don't move usually and I'm not moving 10OA straight up for any of these guys.

Nashville keeps Saros and Askarov. No reason for them to trade either. If they are not in playoff picture come the trade deadline, we could see Saros dealt at such point.

Didn't they come out already saying they're going to give him an extension this summer or did I misread that somewhere?

 

[Triumph]

I'm sure that there would be some fluff as well, its not like I think the 25 first would be the only piece, but I don't think that this is a guy who is going to secure a huge return such as the one Garrioch suggested. I think a 25 first is a fine primary piece in that deal if that's what it returns. Could a team beat that? Absolutely. There are teams that may have a pick this year that they can move instead of a 25 pick, and that's always preferrable, but I don't consider that substantially more valuable or anything..

You don't consider it more valuable, but NHL GMs absolutely do. Almost nobody wants a 25 pick when the 24 draft is happening right now. Indeed, Boston probably wouldn't want 10th overall anyway, they would want to trade it immediately for an upgrade at forward.

But if they ultimately traded Ullmark to the devils for a 25 first, Bahl, and a third this year, I wouldn't be surprised either. And those latter two pieces are basically nothing to me, though maybe others think that is real additional value.

Its weird to me to assume that he's not strategic in his no trade clause. This is not someone who strikes me as someone who wouldn't be strategic about it, especially if his goal is to stay in Boston, which kinda seems to be the case.

I don't think Boston has any interest in Bahl. If they are trading Ullmark, they want an immediate upgrade somewhere, and Bahl as a young defenseman is not what they want, not when they already have Lohrei.

It's not possible for Ullmark to be strategic at this point anyway because his NTC was determined last July and who knows what he and his agent thought about teams that might want him then. My guess is that with such a huge list it's the usual stuff, no Canadian teams, no Arizona, a couple others, the Devils might be on there also. I do not think his modified NTC will make him cheaper to acquire.

 

[tailfins]

Fitzgerald has done an outstanding job. I don't think it's in jeopardy nor should it be.

Regardless of goaltending, which Fitzgerald has tried to fix many times, in many ways.

Let's try this. Who would we say were the top 10-12 goalies in the league this year? Lots of names would pop up, but mostly we'd agree upon guys like Hellebuyck, Demko, Swayman, Bobrovsky, Shesterkin, Binnington, Saros, Oettinger. Maybe we could throw in names like Kotchetkov, Hill, Thompson, Jarry. I'll even give you Ulmark and Markstrom.

Now let's ask this:

How many of these names have changed teams/organizations in the past three seasons?

If you answered ZERO, you are correct.

This is because teams do not trade great goalies, and rarely do they even reach free agency. Fitzgerald started his reign in New Jersey with a big hole in goal, and now he has a slightly smaller hole in goal. Overall, Fitzgerald has been exceptional, but we can't blame him for not acquiring a player who was not even available to acquire.

Askarov (not on your list, but top goalie prospect) drafted in 2020
Ullmark signed with Boston in 2021
Levi (not on your list, but top goalie prospect) traded in 2021
Hill traded to Vegas in 2022

But, that's not really the point. I don't think Fitz's job should be in jeopardy.

But, I could certainly understand if ownership took action if the Devils miss the playoffs again and it's because Fitz took a long-shot gamble on goaltending that didn't pan out.

 

[JrFischer54]

100%. I get what you're saying. 10th for Markstrom + 27th doesn't look like really bad "value", but it's a horrible way to utilize by far their most valuable trade chip.

If they're trading the 10th, it has to be a for a prime-age, quality player. Not a Markstrom that's held together with duct date by every All-Star break and shats it once the playoffs roll around.

This draft has a very good crop of prospects at the top. Use the 10th in the draft. Most of the trade targets mentioned in this thread would be a horrible use of the 10th.

every draft i watch this kid is the steal of the draft this one reminds me of kopitar this one is the second coming of crosby this kid is a cant miss. all hype building up then during and realistically afterwards majority of time they never live up to the hype and just become regular nhl filler players. again we drafted holtz 7th and while every player is different we still dont know for sure what we have in him that was what 3 years ago? the 10th isn't as huge a chip as a lot of you guys are making it out to be is it the biggest chip the devils have? no my guess that would be casey thats the biggest chip then the 10th

 

[JrFischer54]

Askarov (not on your list, but top goalie prospect) drafted in 2020
Ullmark signed with Boston in 2021
Levi (not on your list, but top goalie prospect) traded in 2021
Hill traded to Vegas in 2022

But, that's not really the point. I don't think Fitz's job should be in jeopardy.

But, I could certainly understand if ownership took action if the Devils miss the playoffs again and it's because Fitz took a long-shot gamble on goaltending that didn't pan out.

fitz job is absolutely on the line with how he handles goaltending. if he goes cheap again and fails thats 100% on him for not paying the price for a better goalie. the excuse for being expensive is done with of course he can go the cheap route and it pays off and he looks like a big brain hero. either way his job is definitely on the line if brings in kari allen duo and they are vitek/schmid 2.0

 

[Guttersniped]

It's not for Ullmark, not at all. Ullmark is a lifetime .918 goaltender. He has the highest save percentage of any goalie over the last 3 years. He is signed at an eminently reasonable $5M - any team can take this on without too much trouble. 10th overall is too much, but absolutely no way that a 2025 lottery protected 1st is a reasonable return. I do not believe that Ullmark's being able to pick a destination will lower his price - he does not have a full NTC, he has a 16 no team trade list this year and a 15 one next year. Unless he was really strategic about this, and I doubt he was, there will be multiple teams not on that list making offers.

I'm sure that there would be some fluff as well, its not like I think the 25 first would be the only piece, but I don't think that this is a guy who is going to secure a huge return such as the one Garrioch suggested. I think a 25 first is a fine primary piece in that deal if that's what it returns. Could a team beat that? Absolutely. There are teams that may have a pick this year that they can move instead of a 25 pick, and that's always preferrable, but I don't consider that substantially more valuable or anything.. But if they ultimately traded Ullmark to the devils for a 25 first, Bahl, and a third this year, I wouldn't be surprised either. And those latter two pieces are basically nothing to me, though maybe others think that is real additional value.

Its weird to me to assume that he's not strategic in his no trade clause. This is not someone who strikes me as someone who wouldn't be strategic about it, especially if his goal is to stay in Boston, which kinda seems to be the case.

Ullmark would definitely be strategic about it.

Eric Staal had a 10 team no trade list on a 2 year deal, and didn’t want to get traded from Minny, so he put top teams who were potential TDL buyers on it.

He didn’t foresee a non-playoff team like Buffalo wanting him in the 2020 off-season.

Ullmark has a bigger list and it’s easier to figure out what teams could/would potentially trade for him. Sure, that means he could end up in Utah, but that’s the risk with the list.

I assume we’re on his 16 team list, so unless Sweeney wears him down I don’t even think he’s actually that realist a trade target.

Saros has a real chance of staying in Nashville, and eventually being re-signed.

I will say Fitz is too much of a blabber mouth, the “big game hunting” shit will haunt him because a lot of fans are now expecting a star goalie/savior.

 

[Nocashstyle]

Ullmark would definitely be strategic about it.

Eric Staal had a 10 team no trade list on a 2 year deal, and didn’t want to get traded from Minny, so he put top teams who were potential TDL buyers on it.

He didn’t foresee a non-playoff team like Buffalo wanting him in the 2020 off-season.

Ullmark has a bigger list and it’s easier to figure out what teams could/would potentially trade for him. Sure, that means he could end up in Utah, but that’s the risk with the list.

I assume we’re on his 16 team list, so unless Sweeney wears him down I don’t even think he’s actually that realist a trade target.

Saros has a real chance of staying in Nashville, and eventually being re-signed.

I will say Fitz is too much of a blabber mouth, the “big game hunting” shit will haunt him because a lot of fans are now expecting a star goalie/savior.

Has Fitz actually used that term, or is it insiders like Lebrun and Friedman using it? Either way, I agree that looking at who is realistically available, that’s a pretty sensational term. Fitz has made it known many times that he’s looking for a goalie, there’s a fine line between letting the fans know he understands that goaltending is a problem and he’s looking and over-promising/under-delivering.

 

[Goptor]

There's too many goalies available for the Devils to miss out or be forced to overpay for one.

Just read any of the trade board threads about NJ and goalies. 1/3 of the NHL teams will be represented by fans trying to trade off a goalie to NJ

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

I'm not sure that I agree that we have better pieces than Thornton+Marleau+Pavelski (and later Couture). Probably comparable, but not better. It's nitpicking though.

As a roster totality, we 100% do.

 

[Guttersniped]

Has Fitz actually used that term, or is it insiders like Lebrun and Friedman using it? Either way, I agree that looking at who is realistically available, that’s a pretty sensational term. Fitz has made it known many times that he’s looking for a goalie, there’s a fine line between letting the fans know he understands that goaltending is a problem and he’s looking and over-promising/under-delivering.

He said that at the TDL and it was quoted quite a bit.

Pressed on how tough the goalie market was, Fitzgerald seemingly revealed why a player like Markstrom didn’t end up in New Jersey this year.

“There is a market,” he said, “people performing have set that market. All I’m trying to do is be fair in that market, but you also need a team that wants to make fair deals, too, versus just extorting you for every big asset you have. I think we were smart about it.

“But this opportunity this offseason gives us a chance to look at the market, what’s going to be available this summer and really add something that we haven’t had here in a while.”

And that’s the plan moving forward. Fitzgerald acknowledged his disappointment with the season — even noting he didn’t want to buy at the deadline because making the playoffs was a “low bet” — but he remains optimistic that he’ll finally put his team’s decade-long goalie question to rest this summer.

Fitzgerald claims that his patience approach this season will culminate with “big-game hunting” on the market this offseason.

“I hope (our players) see that it’s an opportunity for us to set ourselves up this summer to have the cap space for a position of need and, to be quite honest, be big game hunting,” Fitzgerald said, when asked what message his deadline moves should send to his players.

That’s from this

Does Devils GM Tom Fitzgerald regret not using LTIR space? ‘Not at all’

Does Devils GM Tom Fitzgerald regret not using his LTIR space?

www.nj.com

Also,

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5327675/2024/03/08/nhl-deadline-devils-trades-tom-fitzgerald-tyler-toffoli-jake-allen/?source=user_shared_article

(And elsewhere)

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

All I know is I’m going to be very pissed off if we move on from Kahkonen and he plays well somewhere else. He’s been respectable outside of the hellhole that is SJ. Sure he hasn’t been a proven 1A, but why can’t he be? Markstrom wasn’t a reliable 1 until he was 28. Kahkonen is turning 28.

 

[bossram]

every draft i watch this kid is the steal of the draft this one reminds me of kopitar this one is the second coming of crosby this kid is a cant miss. all hype building up then during and realistically afterwards majority of time they never live up to the hype and just become regular nhl filler players. again we drafted holtz 7th and while every player is different we still dont know for sure what we have in him that was what 3 years ago? the 10th isn't as huge a chip as a lot of you guys are making it out to be is it the biggest chip the devils have? no my guess that would be casey thats the biggest chip then the 10th

I didn't say any particular prospect is "can't miss". As for Holtz, I would not have selected him at that spot.

I'm saying using the 10th as a trade chip to acquire a mid player or old goalie or pending UFA is a horrible use of the asset.

And yes, I think most teams would value the 10th>Casey.