Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason part II

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My3Sons

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not sure I mean team has holes all over the place that would be nice to plug but realistically I doubt a deal does get done for anything and they keep the pick. I don’t think they should but that’s my guess what ends up happening.

Like Fitz said he has to be blown away by an offer or something like that. Same goes for trots saying about saros or insert any gm for any trade.
That’s thr problem with trading the pick. At best maybe you get offered some other team’s version of Holtz and a broken down veteran. When you actively try to trade something you tend to lose the trade.
 

devilsblood

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That’s thr problem with trading the pick. At best maybe you get offered some other team’s version of Holtz and a broken down veteran. When you actively try to trade something you tend to lose the trade.
I don't think Fitz is calling teams saying " hey what you give for the #10?"

He'd have a target in mind when he started dialing.
 

devilsblood

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I would kill for Askarov 10+Holtz or Casey no problem, I do think Trotz's comments though is just gamesmanship. I can't see them choosing Saros over Askarov long term, unless their offers for Askarov are astronomical.
My guess is that Nash is willing to roll 2 goalies for awhile.

Askarov for all the potential, has still only played 3 games. Can't lean on him to be the #1 just yet. But no way they trade him.
 
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devilsblood

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I'm not really sure I see what everyone else does in Askarov.
I remember watching him against Jack in the U-18's, he stole that game.

High pick.

Has good numbers at a young age in the AHL.

Still only 21.

Cost controlled.

He's Russian. (half joking on this one)

It looks like he has an .882 in 5 playoff games and lost the job to some 34 year old guy named Troy Grosenick.
Hey Grosenick has a career .933 save% in the NHL.
 

Triumph

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There's much more of a precedent of good goalies being traded for late 1st round or equivalent talent than being traded for a top 10 pick. Doesn't mean that those teams would deal those goalies for that price but it makes sense for the Devils to hold firm on that price than try and overpay for a goalie.

There's a lot of teams around the NHL that need goaltending. The Devils not trying to overpay for a goalie is what has them in this spot.

A 25 protected first is a pretty reasonable return for ullmark who will likely be able to pick his destination.

Same for markstrom who can

It's not for Ullmark, not at all. Ullmark is a lifetime .918 goaltender. He has the highest save percentage of any goalie over the last 3 years. He is signed at an eminently reasonable $5M - any team can take this on without too much trouble. 10th overall is too much, but absolutely no way that a 2025 lottery protected 1st is a reasonable return. I do not believe that Ullmark's being able to pick a destination will lower his price - he does not have a full NTC, he has a 16 no team trade list this year and a 15 one next year. Unless he was really strategic about this, and I doubt he was, there will be multiple teams not on that list making offers.
 
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theoptimist

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I’m trading Holtz for Markstrom, not #10. Talking about Ullmark or Saros is backassward. No goalie is worth #10.
 
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devilsblood

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I didn't realize Crosby had such a good year.

Only the 3rd time in his career he has scored over 40 goals.

I bring this up here because I'm looking at fading teams that might be willing to trade their goalies in an effort to tank for a high pick.

Would Pitt do that with Crosby still on board? Could Pitt possibly look to trade Crosby? Only one year remaining on his contract. Would he resign if they suck next year, which they probably will.

More to the point of this thread, would we even want Jarry?
 

My3Sons

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I didn't realize Crosby had such a good year.

Only the 3rd time in his career he has scored over 40 goals.

I bring this up here because I'm looking at fading teams that might be willing to trade their goalies in an effort to tank for a high pick.

Would Pitt do that with Crosby still on board? Could Pitt possibly look to trade Crosby? Only one year remaining on his contract. Would he resign if they suck next year, which they probably will.
At his age he's likely got roots and interests in PIT and he'd sign back there for another couple of years over the summer.
 
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devilsblood

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At his age he's likely got roots and interests in PIT and he'd sign back there for another couple of years over the summer.
But does he want to finish his career on a crappy team?

Malkin's all of a sudden a guy who hasn't missed a game in 2 years, but his production has fallen off. 2 years left on his contract.
 
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Devils731

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But does he want to finish his career on a crappy team?

Malkin's all of a sudden a guy who hasn't missed a game in 2 years, but his production has fallen off. 2 years left on his contract.
Crosby should be a mercenary.

Play and live in Pitt on a 1 year deal. Get traded to a mega-contender at deadline, if Pitt is out of it. Sign back in Pitt and do it again the next year.

He kind of gets the best of both worlds in that case.
 

Rhodes 81

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Their pieces are far superior to those teams.
I'm not sure that I agree that we have better pieces than Thornton+Marleau+Pavelski (and later Couture). Probably comparable, but not better. It's nitpicking though.
I want to trade the pick. I don't want to trade the pick for a 33 year old.
I am in the camp of not wanting to trade this particular pick, but I get what BritDevil is saying that eventually we have to get comfortable with more short-term gain, long-term loss trades if we're going to actually do the thing. Realistically most heavyweight contenders make those moves at some point. I don't know that this particular year is the one to do it, but I'm not eliminating any trade target over 30 forever.
The thing about trading this pick is that I don’t know how the cap is going to work if you’re getting a player worthy of that trade.

I assume Luke and Nemec are minimum 8x8. Bridging them is a terrible idea. The cap jumping past 102 or so before that happens is possible but you still have a year or two of being right up against it. And that’s without adding any mid tier depth forward.

Real tricky times. That Palat deal was so stupid.
Maybe I'm too optimistic, but I don't think both Luke and Nemec will end up signing for quite that much. One probably will but the other hopefully not. I don't think there's room for both of them to put up the kind of stats that warrant that contract for a young D while Hamilton is also here.

By the time we have to sign Nemec, Haula will be UFA and Palat will be on 1 year and no longer have a full NMC. He could easily be bought out or traded at that point if we need the space.
I don’t think Coleman is that much overpaid. Even if he regress to be a 20 goal 40 point winger that PK’s. That player is probably still work around his current salary.
While they're slightly different types of players, you basically just described Palat and we all seem to be in agreement that he's overpaid by at least $1.0 million. Coleman makes $1.1 less than him, so I tend to agree in a vacuum.

I think the bigger problem is the opportunity cost where adding Coleman (at his full AAV, anyway) may not be the best use of that cap space.
 

My3Sons

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But does he want to finish his career on a crappy team?

Malkin's all of a sudden a guy who hasn't missed a game in 2 years, but his production has fallen off. 2 years left on his contract.
I'd be surprised if any player wants to play on a crappy team. But he's won his cups and as noted above could maybe do a couple of seasons of TDL moving if the team is out of it while returning after the season. Not ideal but probably more attractive than just playing out the string for another few years if PIT just continues to erode.
 

Forge

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There's a lot of teams around the NHL that need goaltending. The Devils not trying to overpay for a goalie is what has them in this spot.



It's not for Ullmark, not at all. Ullmark is a lifetime .918 goaltender. He has the highest save percentage of any goalie over the last 3 years. He is signed at an eminently reasonable $5M - any team can take this on without too much trouble. 10th overall is too much, but absolutely no way that a 2025 lottery protected 1st is a reasonable return. I do not believe that Ullmark's being able to pick a destination will lower his price - he does not have a full NTC, he has a 16 no team trade list this year and a 15 one next year. Unless he was really strategic about this, and I doubt he was, there will be multiple teams not on that list making offers.

I'm sure that there would be some fluff as well, its not like I think the 25 first would be the only piece, but I don't think that this is a guy who is going to secure a huge return such as the one Garrioch suggested. I think a 25 first is a fine primary piece in that deal if that's what it returns. Could a team beat that? Absolutely. There are teams that may have a pick this year that they can move instead of a 25 pick, and that's always preferrable, but I don't consider that substantially more valuable or anything.. But if they ultimately traded Ullmark to the devils for a 25 first, Bahl, and a third this year, I wouldn't be surprised either. And those latter two pieces are basically nothing to me, though maybe others think that is real additional value.

Its weird to me to assume that he's not strategic in his no trade clause. This is not someone who strikes me as someone who wouldn't be strategic about it, especially if his goal is to stay in Boston, which kinda seems to be the case.
 

tailfins

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not sure I mean team has holes all over the place that would be nice to plug but realistically I doubt a deal does get done for anything and they keep the pick. I don’t think they should but that’s my guess what ends up happening.

Like Fitz said he has to be blown away by an offer or something like that. Same goes for trots saying about saros or insert any gm for any trade.
Personally, I see the Devils getting a B tier goalie this summer. Someone who is clearly an NHL starter, but not a top tier guy.

- If I'm Nashville, I hang onto Saros. Askarov isn't ready.
- I feel similar about Markstrom / Wolfe, but who knows what Calgary is thinking.
- I think Boston sends Ullmark to the west.
- Toronto is looking for a goalie - maybe that takes Binnington out of the picture?
- Maybe Minny trades Gustavsson, but they probably shouldn't. Wallstedt isn't ready to be a full time starter, and Fleury shouldn't be a 1B at this stage of his career. Gustavsson also didn't have the greatest season last year.

Meanwhile...
Gibson is looking for a home.
Vejmelka could be available.
Merzlikins is available.

That's where I think Fitz ends up just given the market. If that's where the market shakes out, though, I'd prefer to roll with Kakhonen + Allen and deploy assets differently. Go find a mid pair LD and / or some wings with physicality. Maybe upgrade bottom six centers. Juice isn't worth the squeeze if you're not getting a top tier goalie.

If Fitz goes with Kakhonen + Allen, though, I think he's fired if it doesn't work. Getting one of the others at least show that Fitz brought in someone who is a known (if mediocre) quantity.
 
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My3Sons

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Personally, I see the Devils getting a B tier goalie this summer. Someone who is clearly an NHL starter, but not a top tier guy.

- If I'm Nashville, I hang onto Saros. Askarov isn't ready.
- I feel similar about Markstrom / Wolfe, but who knows what Calgary is thinking.
- I think Boston sends Ullmark to the west.
- Toronto is looking for a goalie - maybe that takes Binnington out of the picture?
- Maybe Minny trades Gustavsson, but they probably shouldn't. Wallstedt isn't ready to be a full time starter, and Fleury shouldn't be a 1B at this stage of his career. Gustavsson also didn't have the greatest season last year.

Meanwhile...
Gibson is looking for a home.
Vejmelka could be available.
Merzlikins is available.

That's where I think Fitz ends up just given the market. If that's where the market shakes out, though, I'd prefer to roll with Kakhonen + Allen and deploy assets differently. Go find a mid pair LD and / or some wings with physicality. Maybe upgrade bottom six centers. Juice isn't worth the squeeze if you're not getting a top tier goalie.

But, I think if Kakhonen + Allen blows up, Fitz is fired. Getting one of the others at least show that Fitz brought in someone who is a known (if mediocre) quantity.


Merzlinkins creates a problem though. The "Elvis has left the building" stuff will give too much angry vitriolic material to @Bleedred whenever Elvis has a tough game. If he gets wind of it he will crater the way Vitek did once Bleed started mocking him.
 

NJDevs26

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My guess is that Nash is willing to roll 2 goalies for awhile.

Askarov for all the potential, has still only played 3 games. Can't lean on him to be the #1 just yet. But no way they trade him.
Not to mention it’d be kind of unfair to tell Schmid and Daws, who’ve both had at least small periods of success in the NHL, sorry you can’t play in the NHL because we just traded for someone who’s even less proven than you (albeit one would probably leave in any trade).
 

Guadana

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Even if they can help you win now?

I'm not advocating it really, but at some point picking super youth has to end. The 10th overall player could be 5/6/7 years away from helping this team. Hischier and Jack could be gone by then....
No. Earlier.

Hughes, Hughes, Hischier, Bratt, Meier, Nemec is the core.

Chances of this 10th overall developing into a player that becomes a core piece? Very slim imo.

Time to add valuable veteran players to supplement the core.
Nemec is 19 20 yo now, Luke is 21, Jack is 23. They have large window more than 8 years.


Three seasons until Nico is UFA.

The player who is picked 10th overall might not even be in the league by then.
Reason why they should pick, not trade. Backup plan will not hurt too. Management should think by their head. Not by their hot vss. Dallas drafted Johnston and Stankoven after the final. Works well. Florida prefer to save their Lundell pick.

If contending team could love something- Its very talented young players on ELC to fill the holes with nothing under the cap. But of course some teams are trading picks like that by trying to force the situation. And all over again they are ruining their potential.

Its okay to be not patient fan, its not to be not patient management.
 

NJDevs26

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There are a lot more examples of teams either trading a first rounder for gain (Tampa) or using it and not having it pan out. Lou had a lot of clunker first round picks he kept and I don’t just mean towards the end lol. God knows we haven’t gotten much out of Holtz to this point who was a #7 overall.

Yes #10 overall is different than picks in the 20’s but not so different it can’t be traded.
 

My3Sons

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There are a lot more examples of teams either trading a first rounder for gain (Tampa) or using it and not having it pan out. Lou had a lot of clunker first round picks he kept and I don’t just mean towards the end lol. God knows we haven’t gotten much out of Holtz to this point who was a #7 overall.

Yes #10 overall is different than picks in the 20’s but not so different it can’t be traded.
I’m sure there is a sliding scale on this sort of trade from stupid to fantastic. My concern is that any trade of 10 will land squarely on meh. I would not move pick 10 for anything close to meh. For example, 10 for Markstrom would border on stupid. Same for Ullmark or Saros. Adding a B+ prosect and a third coming back to NJ maybe moves that towards meh but still not worth it to me. A good return would be someone like Necas where he fits the team profile and age range. A fantastic return would be someone like Tkachuck from Ottawa assuming 10 gets bundled with some other stuff that’s livable. Not that any of those hypothetical trades would ever come to fruition but we seem to be falling into the don’t trade it camp or the do trade it camp and I think almost everyone is in the trade it only if thr return is worth it camp. Of course that is subjective to each person.
 

StevenToddIves

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My guess is that Nash is willing to roll 2 goalies for awhile.

Askarov for all the potential, has still only played 3 games. Can't lean on him to be the #1 just yet. But no way they trade him.
Nashville keeps Saros and Askarov. No reason for them to trade either. If they are not in playoff picture come the trade deadline, we could see Saros dealt at such point.
 
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