Confirmed with Link: Devils acquire Meier (50% retained) and four others from the Sharks for 2023 1st, conditional 2024 1st, Mukhamadullin, Okhotiuk, Zetterlund & Johnsson

[RememberTheName]

The analytics crowd pisses me off a lot of the time. CJ Turtoro talks like someone who doesn't understand how the game works. You cannot just plop a chart on a screen and go "See, Player X is not actually as good as everyone says and they're overrated" or vice versa. That's basically what he does 99% of the time. You have to back up the data with actual examples from on ice play that lead to the data being the way it is or else you become unreliable and untrustworthy. For example, I look at that Mercer chart and I just think "Hmm, that chart is not at all what I would expect. I wonder why it is the way it is given my opinion on what I thought it would be". He did the same thing with Marino earlier in the year, just plopped a chart on the screen and called him JAG because he wasn't providing enough value or some crazy bullshit like that. He fails to provide any explanation in both cases and its really quite frustrating..

And this isn't just a "I don't understand how to read the data" argument, this is a "The data doesn't back up what I see, please explain why the two aren't matching" argument. I fail to see how the data is useful if the person providing it cannot explain why things are the way they are. I have no reason to generate any meaningful takeaway if I don't see what is actually happening on the ice as examples.

 

[glenwo2]

SJ played on Sat, next game is tomorrow on Tues.

NJ played on Sat, next game is on Wednesday.

Seems like a clear, pre-defined window for making the trade and allowing a couple of days for Timo to get his life and shit organized. I do not envy him in that regard...

Yeah. When you're with a team as long as he had been, to uproot and move is quite the undertaking.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Is this thread one of the best NJD HFBoards threads of all-time? Has to be right?

Definitely an all timer for HF Devils. This place was wild yesterday.

 

[glenwo2]

The analytics crowd pisses me off a lot of the time. CJ Turtoro talks like someone who doesn't understand how the game works. You cannot just plop a chart on a screen and go "See, Player X is not actually as good as everyone says and they're overrated" or vice versa. That's basically what he does 99% of the time. You have to back up the data with actual examples from on ice play that lead to the data being the way it is or else you become unreliable and untrustworthy. For example, I look at that Mercer chart and I just think "Hmm, that chart is not at all what I would expect. I wonder why it is the way it is given my opinion on what I thought it would be". He did the same thing with Marino earlier in the year, just plopped a chart on the screen and called him JAG because he wasn't providing enough value or some crazy bullshit like that. He fails to provide any explanation in both cases and its really quite frustrating..

And this isn't just a "I don't understand how to read the data" argument, this is a "The data doesn't back up what I see, please explain why the two aren't matching" argument. I fail to see how the data is useful if the person providing it cannot explain why things are the way they are. I have no reason to generate any meaningful takeaway if I don't see what is actually happening on the ice as examples.

Not for nothing but this is the same guy who said Jesper Bratt is better than Alex Ovechkin and Artemi Panarin using those same charts.

I mean the argument can be made for the latter but Ovy? That must be some good weed.

 

[Cheddabombs]

@Cheddabombs

You know the context of that, right?

In his goodbye tweet, Fabian meant to say "The WHOLE Devils organization" but had a typo-accident and forgot the "w".

The "HOLE" (hehehehehe) Devils organization.

Aha I do I do, that's the lovable big Z for ya

 

[glenwo2]

Aha I do I do, that's the lovable big Z for ya

He will be missed.

But you got to give something to get something.

He can at least console himself with the fact that the Sharks gave up Timo Meier for him.

I'm going to catch some Sharks games the rest of the season to see how he does.

Guarantee you he will become a fan favorite over there.

 

[MauDevils]

If I had to bet, I think Timo's first game is March 7th, the earliest.

I hope you're right. Save him for his first home game. I bought tickets yesterday so that's what I'm hoping for...should be a crazy building.

 

[Richer's Ghost]

BTW, in all seriousness, the Joke was this (by Sevs) :

“We were sitting at dinner and I go, ‘hey, maybe this is our last dinner together,’” Severson told NJ Advance Media.

This was before they found out who was going to San Jose for Timo.

Still might be Sevs... don't get comfortable.

 

[My3Sons]

Hell hath no fury.

Like marrying a divorce attorney. Trust me.

 

[Bleedred]

I'm sure CJ says a lot of stuff I'd like, but he lost me several years ago when he whined about firing Hynes (it might have been before Hynes was actually fired) or about how we can't fire Hynes and it wouldn't be right, after I'm pretty sure he was wanting to fire Hynes way before that, like before the Hall MVP season/playoff year.

 

[Nubmer6]

Like marrying a divorce attorney. Trust me.

Better than divorcing a pre-nupt marriage attorney, I'd think.

 

[Dylan9z9]

It

It's understandable because we liked the players, but I'm fine with this.

Not too concerned with any of this but that 2024 1st seems excessive

 

[NjDevsRR]

Not too concerned with any of this but that 2024 1st seems excessive

Its not a 1st until we make the ECF that year

 

[Dylan9z9]

The analytics crowd pisses me off a lot of the time. CJ Turtoro talks like someone who doesn't understand how the game works. You cannot just plop a chart on a screen and go "See, Player X is not actually as good as everyone says and they're overrated" or vice versa. That's basically what he does 99% of the time. You have to back up the data with actual examples from on ice play that lead to the data being the way it is or else you become unreliable and untrustworthy. For example, I look at that Mercer chart and I just think "Hmm, that chart is not at all what I would expect. I wonder why it is the way it is given my opinion on what I thought it would be". He did the same thing with Marino earlier in the year, just plopped a chart on the screen and called him JAG because he wasn't providing enough value or some crazy bullshit like that. He fails to provide any explanation in both cases and its really quite frustrating..

And this isn't just a "I don't understand how to read the data" argument, this is a "The data doesn't back up what I see, please explain why the two aren't matching" argument. I fail to see how the data is useful if the person providing it cannot explain why things are the way they are. I have no reason to generate any meaningful takeaway if I don't see what is actually happening on the ice as examples.

They have tons of data and statistics on what stocks to pick but if you follow them like gospel you will lose your shirt .... case in point Game Stop.

 

[Mr Bojanglez]

Not too concerned with any of this but that 2024 1st seems excessive

It's a 2024 2nd that only becomes a first if good shit happens.

Does that help? It helped me once i connected the dots on it.

 

[MadDevil]

Not too concerned with any of this but that 2024 1st seems excessive

It's more likely that ends up being a 2nd. If it ends up being a 1st, it means we went to the ECF either this year or next. The only way it really bites us is if we go to the ECF this year, it turns into a 1st, and then we're bad next year and it ends up being like an 11-15 overall pick. Which seems unlikely, barring some unforeseen disaster.

 

[Richer's Ghost]

Its not a 1st until we make the ECF that year

And that means it's a last 5 pick most likely in the 1st... doesn't sting that much.

 

[njdevils1982]

I need to mention that my cover band picks a band to cover each week. Someone suggested BTO and we laughed him out of the room on the principle of cheesiness.

Best frigging time ever. The riffs, silly Canadian backing vocals. The other guitarist is now a committed fan.

Ps. Jethro Tull night also rocked. I got my wife to dust off her flute from high school. Not a euphemism nor American Pie reference. I will self impose my own ban, thanks.

do april wine. tons of great songs

 

[Brooklyndevil]

Trading your advantage against the Rags (since they're our R1 opponent as of now) defensively to get progressively worse is the dumbest thing you can do going into the playoffs. Flip Severson with Holtz for a better upgrade? Sure or something of that liking but to get Luke Schenn??

I was thinking more in trading Holtz for a 3rd line upgrade with some beef. As for Severson, I just don’t know what plans Fitz has for him. Do we hold on to him and then let him walk, trade for another player or a draft pick. I would think he may hold on to him for the playoffs. Just my opinion.

 

[Blackjack]

The analytics crowd pisses me off a lot of the time. CJ Turtoro talks like someone who doesn't understand how the game works. You cannot just plop a chart on a screen and go "See, Player X is not actually as good as everyone says and they're overrated" or vice versa. That's basically what he does 99% of the time. You have to back up the data with actual examples from on ice play that lead to the data being the way it is or else you become unreliable and untrustworthy. For example, I look at that Mercer chart and I just think "Hmm, that chart is not at all what I would expect. I wonder why it is the way it is given my opinion on what I thought it would be". He did the same thing with Marino earlier in the year, just plopped a chart on the screen and called him JAG because he wasn't providing enough value or some crazy bullshit like that. He fails to provide any explanation in both cases and its really quite frustrating..

And this isn't just a "I don't understand how to read the data" argument, this is a "The data doesn't back up what I see, please explain why the two aren't matching" argument. I fail to see how the data is useful if the person providing it cannot explain why things are the way they are. I have no reason to generate any meaningful takeaway if I don't see what is actually happening on the ice as examples.

IMO what CJ left out of his charts is that forwards under the age of 24 are generally on a sharp upward trajectory. The fact that Mercer is already as good as he is at only 21 is very, very promising. It’s why you can trade a guy like Zetterlund, painful as it may be, but not Mercer.

CJ makes a big point of the fact that Meier was better at the same age. Great, but that just means he got better a little earlier. Development is non linear. It’s entirely possible that Mercer tops out at what he is now - a likeable but not remarkable winger. There is also the chance that he takes significant steps forward over the next three seasons.

Will he be as good as or better than Meier? Who f***ing knows? Probably not based on nothing more than the fact that very few players ever get as good as Meier. That said, he’s one of the few young forwards in the league with that kind of upside.

 

[Saugus]

They have tons of data and statistics on what stocks to pick but if you follow them like gospel you will lose your shirt .... case in point Game Stop.

Game Stop is an odd example to choose if you're trying to denounce analytics. Serious analysts using data and statistics thought it was insanity that retail investors were bidding up a worthless meme stock. Turns out they were right. But here we are.

 

[Unknown Caller]

The analytics crowd pisses me off a lot of the time. CJ Turtoro talks like someone who doesn't understand how the game works. You cannot just plop a chart on a screen and go "See, Player X is not actually as good as everyone says and they're overrated" or vice versa. That's basically what he does 99% of the time. You have to back up the data with actual examples from on ice play that lead to the data being the way it is or else you become unreliable and untrustworthy. For example, I look at that Mercer chart and I just think "Hmm, that chart is not at all what I would expect. I wonder why it is the way it is given my opinion on what I thought it would be". He did the same thing with Marino earlier in the year, just plopped a chart on the screen and called him JAG because he wasn't providing enough value or some crazy bullshit like that. He fails to provide any explanation in both cases and its really quite frustrating..

And this isn't just a "I don't understand how to read the data" argument, this is a "The data doesn't back up what I see, please explain why the two aren't matching" argument. I fail to see how the data is useful if the person providing it cannot explain why things are the way they are. I have no reason to generate any meaningful takeaway if I don't see what is actually happening on the ice as examples.

One person failing to properly apply analytics in simple terms doesn't make them wrong or useless. Remember that before Dawson Mercer went on his recent tear, he had like one shot on goal over 5 games or something like that. He was invisible for a long portion of the season. It doesn't make him useless or a bad player, but his play was subpar for a long time.

It's also worth noting that a lot of those analytics are based on isolated impact. Mercer is a great complimentary piece who can light it up with the right players (ie: Jack, Nico, Tatar), but he really struggles to drive play on his own or carry his own line.

A guy like Meier on the other hand has much better isolated impact numbers because he can still produce with nothing around him and he can be the driver on his line. He isn't dependent on fitting in with great players next to him.

 

[glenwo2]

Just wanted to put this up again by CJ because it's so damn funny :





How's that weed taste, CJ?

 

[Unknown Caller]

Just wanted to put this up again by CJ because it's so damn funny :





How's that weed taste, CJ?

How is this a hot take? He's not saying Bratt is better than prime Ovechkin. He's saying 2023 Jesper Bratt is better than 2023 Alex Ovechkin and 2023 Artemi Panarin. It's not that crazy. Fairly obvious, in fact.

 

[Blackjack]

Just wanted to put this up again by CJ because it's so damn funny :





How's that weed taste, CJ?

Bratt is certainly better than Panarin and Ovechkin right now.