Devils 2020-21 team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part XIV

[StevenToddIves]

Well, if you were to go by Cordell's advanced stats, an argument could be made that he's produced at a 1st line rate previously. Now, that may be a byproduct of the players he was with or the system in Toronto, but there was certainly the expectation that he was more than a 3rd line player.

I answered this is the previous post, probably just on top of this one.

I think Cordell is a great writer, but his numbers are manipulated to support his argument. The answer is simply that Johnsson's (one) good season occurred in a year (2018-19) when William Nylander missed half the year, giving Johnsson (and Kapanen) top-6 and PP minutes alongside Matthews and Tavares. Both Johnsson and Kapanen scored (exactly) 20 goals that year, which is certainly solid. In Johnsson's remaining 55 game NHL career, he has 10 goals. In three games with the Devils -- and I know it's a small sample size -- his analytic numbers have been the poorest among the 12 Devils forwards. If we want to attribute that to his line mates, both Zacha and Gusev have put up better analytic numbers in terms of both possession and shot-production. I don't understand where the argument is over who should be the odd man out when Bratt returns, in fact I don't even see why we would keep Merkley on the bench in lieu of Johnsson tonight.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I would bet that none of Kuokkanen, McLeod, Bastian, or possibly even Boqvist ever match what Johnsson did in 2018-19. Possibly not even what he did in 2019-20. Sharangovich might but the jury is still out.

 

[My3Sons]

He’s playing under 12 minutes a game and is sporting a -10.9 CF% rel. It’s only been a few games but the guy has never been good, won’t ever be good.

Tennyson isn't getting killed to my eye test. At least not to the same degree as say Subban whose mistakes seem more noticeable for whatever reason. Isn't the whole team negative Corsi right now? I'm not sure that's a fair evaluation after three games but in any event, I think Number6 was correct when he said that Butcher and Smith are competing for the same spot. Tennysons' challenge will be when Vats returns. Unless you want to pair Butcher with Smith on the third pairing? I guess you could give that a few games to experiment but it does not instill confidence just looking at it. At least to me. Others can always see it differently.

 

[StevenToddIves]

But I think the key words are they are not doing much to address it. They knew they were losing those LHD and did nothing to address it. I could be wrong but I am getting the impression Boston is not placing much value on this season. Secondary scoring was available for relatively cheap in the offseason (Dadonov, Hoffman) and they chose to ignore an obvious weakness other than signing a declining Craig Smith.

I've watched every Boston game, and I think their problem boils down to something multiple GMs are guilty of which we've all seen in our fantasy hockey leagues -- they overrate their own players. Like, I'm not sure where Don Sweeney and his scouts came off thinking that Matt Grzelcyk is a top pairing defenseman (spoiler: he's not) or that Lauzon and Zboril can perform just as well as Chara (spoiler: they can't). Boston basically has two third-pairing guys and a rookie on the LD right now, and although their right side is strong with studs like McAvoy and Carlo, overall their blueline has become a liability almost overnight.

Boston's biggest concern is obviously the fact that Pastrnak -- whom I would consider a top 5 winger in the world right now -- is out another 2 weeks or maybe more with a condensed schedule. And how long after that before he is 100%? This was already a team in desperate need of secondary scoring, and now they're lacking, uh... "first-dary" scoring. There's no help on the way -- they have no impact young players at the NHL or the prospect levels. Beecher and Studnicka both have the potential to become very good second-liners and Vaakanainen can be a solid, bottom-4 defensemen, but I think Beecher is the only one who would crack the Devils top 10 prospects right now.

Now, the Bruins find themselves in a much tougher division due to Covid. There's literally no "freebie" games in our division. I think they are in for a big battle to make the playoffs. I wouldn't put anything past proven winners like Bergeron and Rask, but it's certainly not a given like in recent years.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Matt Tennyson skates better than Butcher and I need you to watch the games. Thanks.

Agreed. Tennyson is certainly superior to Butcher in my mind, and I think he's been solid in the opening three games. I think he's a nice luxury to have as the Devils 7th D when Vatanen is ready to come back.

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

I've watched every Boston game, and I think their problem boils down to something multiple GMs are guilty of which we've all seen in our fantasy hockey leagues -- they overrate their own players. Like, I'm not sure where Don Sweeney and his scouts came off thinking that Matt Grzelcyk is a top pairing defenseman (spoiler: he's not) or that Lauzon and Zboril can perform just as well as Chara (spoiler: they can't). Boston basically has two third-pairing guys and a rookie on the LD right now, and although their right side is strong with studs like McAvoy and Carlo, overall their blueline has become a liability almost overnight.

Boston's biggest concern is obviously the fact that Pastrnak -- whom I would consider a top 5 winger in the world right now -- is out another 2 weeks or maybe more with a condensed schedule. And how long after that before he is 100%? This was already a team in desperate need of secondary scoring, and now they're lacking, uh... "first-dary" scoring. There's no help on the way -- they have no impact young players at the NHL or the prospect levels. Beecher and Studnicka both have the potential to become very good second-liners and Vaakanainen can be a solid, bottom-4 defensemen, but I think Beecher is the only one who would crack the Devils top 10 prospects right now.

Now, the Bruins find themselves in a much tougher division due to Covid. There's literally no "freebie" games in our division. I think they are in for a big battle to make the playoffs. I wouldn't put anything past proven winners like Bergeron and Rask, but it's certainly not a given like in recent years.

I do not disagree. I predicted they would miss the playoffs this year.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Tennyson isn't getting killed to my eye test. At least not to the same degree as say Subban whose mistakes seem more noticeable for whatever reason. Isn't the whole team negative Corsi right now? I'm not sure that's a fair evaluation after three games but in any event, I think Number6 was correct when he said that Butcher and Smith are competing for the same spot. Tennysons' challenge will be when Vats returns. Unless you want to pair Butcher with Smith on the third pairing? I guess you could give that a few games to experiment but it does not instill confidence just looking at it. At least to me. Others can always see it differently.

Tennyson has logged 36 minutes on the season total. Subban logged 30:18 in a single game.

I’m not killing Tennyson, I don’t really care about corsi in tiny samples, and he hasn’t been egregiously terrible. But he is just not a good player whatsoever. They’re different roles and I understand why you’d want a “gritty” guy like him, but it is beyond absurd to say he’s superior to Butcher. You didn’t say that, but others have. That is just ridiculous.

 

[Blackjack]

I've watched every Boston game, and I think their problem boils down to something multiple GMs are guilty of which we've all seen in our fantasy hockey leagues -- they overrate their own players.

Ooh, that's a good insight. To be fair, their front office has had a lot of assistance in overrating their players from the media. Not referring, obviously, to guys like Bergeron and McAvoy, but I swear I read a whole bunch recently about what a stud Grzelcyk is.

 

[Billdo]

I still don’t understand why we gave him a two year deal. He was with 4 NHL teams before he turned 25. Why would he command a 2 year deal?

I think you can do worse than having a 7th or in a pinch bottom pairing guy than Carrick.

 

[Hisch13r]

OH COME THE f*** ON

 

[SKNJD9]

That f***ing blows

 

[NJDevs26]

OH COME THE f*** ON

 

[SKNJD9]

Blackwood being put on might just be a paper move...guys have been on and off in a day or two's time. Not everything has been the caps or canes situation

Probably wasn't starting tonight anyway and this opens up a spot to bring up a 13th fwd or 8th D if we want

 

[StevenToddIves]

I would bet that none of Kuokkanen, McLeod, Bastian, or possibly even Boqvist ever match what Johnsson did in 2018-19. Possibly not even what he did in 2019-20. Sharangovich might but the jury is still out.

McLeod is a center with very solid two-way ability, so I'd remove him from this argument. Bastian is not expected to be a 20-goal top 6 guy -- we're happy with him as a power 4th line winger with a bit of scoring pop and physicality, so we should probably take him out, too.

So this narrows down the question to: can Kuokkanen or Boqvist become superior players to Johnsson?

Kuokkanen is a different player, for certain. He lacks Johnsson's shot and nose for the net, but he is far better at distributing the puck and anticipating the play. Statistically, Kuokkanen's final AHL season (at 22 years old) saw him score 48 points in 56 games. While Johnsson's final AHL season (at 24 years old) saw him score 54 points in 54 games. So, is the question -- can Kuokkanen ever hope to match Johnsson's accomplishment of 67 career points going into his 27-year old season? I'd say the idea of Kuokkanen having accumulated 68 career NHL points entering the 2025-26 campaign is not extremely far fetched.

As far as Boqvist.. well, to me this argument is flat out silly. Boqvist is faster, smarter, plays harder on and off the puck, is light years superior with passing, vision and anticipation, and has the ability to slot in at center or the wing. He creates chances, whereas Johnsson's job is to finish chances. I'm not going to get ahead of myself and say Boqvist is a can't miss top 6 stud, but I think most of us would be downright shocked if he did not have 68 career NHL points entering the 2025-26 campaign.

What Johnsson did in 2018-19 was certainly an accomplishment. He scored 20 goals -- not an easy thing to do -- acting as the finisher/net-crasher for Hall of Famers like Matthews and Tavares.

I'm not sure where the myths were created that 1) the Devils prospects and young players are not that good; and 2) that Andreas Johnsson's move to New Jersey was somehow going to give him the vision and anticipation to be a first-line caliber winger.

I'm not trying to insult the kid, or bemoan his trade acquisition. He's certainly an NHL-er who can contribute some offensive pop for your bottom 6, maybe play at the net front on your 2PP. He's a nice depth acquisition, and though he's certainly overpaid for what he brings, the Devils had the cap room and the prospect depth at RW to deal Joey Anderson and still be able to consider the position a major organizational strength.

But again, the ideas I'm reading that we should drop Sharangovich from the top line to "get Johnsson going" are ridiculous. You do not move depth players to your top line to "get them going". You "keep Jack Hughes going" by keeping him alongside the player he is excelling alongside.

 

[youryeah]

OH COME THE f*** ON

as joe girardi once put it- it's not what you want

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

Blackwood being put on might just be a paper move...guys have been on and off in a day or two's time. Not everything has been the caps or canes situation

Probably wasn't starting tonight anyway and this opens up a spot to bring up a 13th fwd or 8th D if we want

 

[Darkauron]

whelp

 

[Emperoreddy]

Blackwood being put on might just be a paper move...guys have been on and off in a day or two's time. Not everything has been the caps or canes situation

Probably wasn't starting tonight anyway and this opens up a spot to bring up a 13th fwd or 8th D if we want

He is on there because he either tested positive or someone around him did.

They aren't goosing the list. Come on.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

McLeod is a center with very solid two-way ability, so I'd remove him from this argument. Bastian is not expected to be a 20-goal top 6 guy -- we're happy with him as a power 4th line winger with a bit of scoring pop and physicality, so we should probably take him out, too.

So this narrows down the question to: can Kuokkanen or Boqvist become superior players to Johnsson?

Kuokkanen is a different player, for certain. He lacks Johnsson's shot and nose for the net, but he is far better at distributing the puck and anticipating the play. Statistically, Kuokkanen's final AHL season (at 22 years old) saw him score 48 points in 56 games. While Johnsson's final AHL season (at 24 years old) saw him score 54 points in 54 games. So, is the question -- can Kuokkanen ever hope to match Johnsson's accomplishment of 67 career points going into his 27-year old season? I'd say the idea of Kuokkanen having accumulated 68 career NHL points entering the 2025-26 campaign is not extremely far fetched.

As far as Boqvist.. well, to me this argument is flat out silly. Boqvist is faster, smarter, plays harder on and off the puck, is light years superior with passing, vision and anticipation, and has the ability to slot in at center or the wing. He creates chances, whereas Johnsson's job is to finish chances. I'm not going to get ahead of myself and say Boqvist is a can't miss top 6 stud, but I think most of us would be downright shocked if he did not have 68 career NHL points entering the 2025-26 campaign.

What Johnsson did in 2018-19 was certainly an accomplishment. He scored 20 goals -- not an easy thing to do -- acting as the finisher/net-crasher for Hall of Famers like Matthews and Tavares.

I'm not sure where the myths were created that 1) the Devils prospects and young players are not that good; and 2) that Andreas Johnsson's move to New Jersey was somehow going to give him the vision and anticipation to be a first-line caliber winger.

I'm not trying to insult the kid, or bemoan his trade acquisition. He's certainly an NHL-er who can contribute some offensive pop for your bottom 6, maybe play at the net front on your 2PP. He's a nice depth acquisition, and though he's certainly overpaid for what he brings, the Devils had the cap room and the prospect depth at RW to deal Joey Anderson and still be able to consider the position a major organizational strength.

But again, the ideas I'm reading that we should drop Sharangovich from the top line to "get Johnsson going" are ridiculous. You do not move depth players to your top line to "get them going". You "keep Jack Hughes going" by keeping him alongside the player he is excelling alongside.

You can list all these things that Boqvist is supposedly better at but none of that matters if he can’t produce. He’s looked good defensively but we are still in a place where it is certainly a good outcome if he becomes a Johnsson-level player. That is definitely not a floor scenario.

Kuokkanen has shown nothing but it’s only been a few games. Again, a Johnsson-level player would be closer to a ceiling scenario than a floor.

 

[My3Sons]

I’m sure Wedgewood will play well. He’s got that recent NHL experience to draw on.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Tennyson has logged 36 minutes on the season total. Subban logged 30:18 in a single game.

I’m not killing Tennyson, I don’t really care about corsi in tiny samples, and he hasn’t been egregiously terrible. But he is just not a good player whatsoever. They’re different roles and I understand why you’d want a “gritty” guy like him, but it is beyond absurd to say he’s superior to Butcher. You didn’t say that, but others have. That is just ridiculous.

I said that, haha.

Tennyson is not a given to get beat along the boards and in the crease like Butcher is. He is defensively responsible and plays a solid positional, stay-at-home style, where Butcher is a bit of a liability. Conversely, Butcher is a terrific outlet passer, unlike Tennyson, and Butcher is clearly far more effective in the offensive zone.

Does this make Tennyson better than Butcher? No -- you're correct. But does it make him a better pairing with Ty Smith? Absolutely.

A defensive pairing is more than the sum of its parts. Ty Smith is the player we need to be thinking about here, not Tennyson or Butcher. Smith is a potential top-pairing defenseman. Three games into his NHL career we already know he is superior to Butcher in any facet imaginable -- passing, shooting, skating, defense, physicality, positioning, anticipation, compete level, you name it. So, Lindy Ruff's job is to develop Smith while keeping him effective in the line-up, despite his inexperience. Ruff's decision was clearly to choose the responsible, low-event, stay-at-home Tennyson, in order to free up Smith to join rushes and make pinches from the point without worrying about his D partner. Smith could not achieve this alongside Butcher, who does not have the skating or strength or defensive awareness to cover for Smith in case his offensive risk-taking goes awry.

A 6-man NHL defensive unit needs to cover multiple dimensions. Sure, we'd all love to have 6 Victor Hedmans, but that's just not possible. So you need guys to dish and move the puck (Severson, Smith, Subban) and guys to play solid D and offer some protection for your goalie and physicality (Murray, Kulikov, Tennyson). Clearly, what the Devils have been doing has been working well so far. I think there shouldn't be a question of whether Butcher should play -- he's simply the 7th best option for a 6-man unit. I think Tennyson has been fine, although we all know that he will move down to the 7th man status once Vatanen returns.

 

[NJDevs26]

The only way you can be on the list 'a day or two' is if you have a presumptive positive that turns out to be a false positive, I think.

 

[Guttersniped]

OH COME THE f*** ON

We’ll, It’s been fun.

 

[Nocashstyle]

I mean...the Islanders aren’t really an offensive powerhouse. If MBW is going to be out, NYI isn’t a bad opponent for it.

 

[Emperoreddy]

We’ll, It’s been fun.

He isn't dead and every team is going to face major players going down to this or random injuries due to the short season.

If they can't overcome that then they weren't going anywhere anyway.