Devils 2020-21 team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part VIII

[glenwo2]

Nobody is acting like that considering we've all said we'd go 4 years so those contracts have no bearing on what we're discussing. It's the next contracts of the youth that mean more. Is keeping Palmieri worth losing Bratt? Cuz that's a position we could find ourselves in down the line. Acting like it's unreasonable to move on from Palmieri is asinine. But, hey, if you can't expect your top picks to produce, then we might as well just sign anyone that scores goals and contributes in the PPGZ department.

No.

Though I hope the Devils do find a way to keep Palms without giving up anyone of significance in order re-sign him.

 

[beekay414]

No.

Though I hope the Devils do find a way to keep Palms without giving up anyone of significance in order re-sign him.

Well that was more in regards to at the end of Palms contract, if he's taking up $6+ million of space and we're up against the cap because our youth worked out, we could lose out on someone like Bratt because Palm's deal has a NMC and is a boat anchor at that point. It's a hypothetical, as all this stuff is, but it's one that has merit.

Listen, I'm a Devils fan first and foremost and I'll get behind whatever we do because I have a huge love for my team. I love Palms but I'm hesitant with long term deals for someone like him. It's a fair stance to take. If he's here, I'll root like a SOB for him to succeed. No question. I'd never root for failure just for a "I told you so" moment. I just have my qualms about extending him that long.

 

[Nubmer6]

Though I hope the Devils do find a way to keep Palms without giving up anyone of significance in order re-sign him.

I think we're more in danger of not having a slot for him and not having the cap space for him.

If Holtz and Mercer pan out, we could potentially have 7 or 8 top 6 forwards if we we keep Goose and Johnsson lives up to expectations.

Then again, a top 9 of

Foote - Hughes - Holtz
Johnsson - Hischier - Palms
Bratt - Zacha - Gusev

Wouldn't be too bad

-edit-
Hmm. Seem to have forgotten Mercer somewhere in the mix.

-edit 2-
Of course, I mean in a couple/few years.

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

Is keeping Palmieri worth losing Bratt? Cuz that's a position we could find ourselves in down the line.

We are in a good cap position. Even if we sign Palmieri to a Zajac like contract, I dont see how we couldnt pay Jesper Bratt in the future what he is worth.
Even if Bratt explodes and becomes a PPG player.

 

[beekay414]

We are in a good cap position. Even if we sign Palmieri to a Zajac like contract, I dont see how we couldnt pay Jesper Bratt in the future what he is worth.
Even if Bratt explodes and becomes a PPG player.

I mean our cap situation in 2020 has no bearing on our cap situation in 2024/2025.

 

[MadDevil]

I wouldn't be entirely comfortable giving Palms more than 4 years, but I'm also not going to freak out if we do go 5-6 years on him. If we're going to have a longer term deal on a player into his mid 30's I'd rather it be somebody we know than a UFA who may or may not fit.

 

[hidek91]

Palmieri will be 30 when his new contract starts (so the risk of decline is real) and while he has good shot, he IMO lacks hockey IQ and skating to be considered elite forward. I think that unless CoVID disappears completely, there's no way that he gets contract much better than Dadonov or Toffoli got this offseason.

And just to be clear, I like Palmieri (he's a good player), just not enough to offer him 5-6 years at 5M+ like some people want to.

 

[TBF1972]

I would want something better back for taking on 2 years of that anchor contract from NYI.

TB wouldn’t do that second deal at all. Killorn himself has positive value ala Schmidt in that at the least he brings back a mid round pick to dump his salary. I wouldn’t see why they would trade away one of their cost controlled defenders as well.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again.. if Tampa is forced into trading one of their RFAs its going to be Cirelli based on team need and their prospect pool that isn’t filled with NHL ready defenders.

You are not wrong, that Killorn is a positive on the ice. Question is would Tampa keep him over Cirelli and Sergachev. The options for Tampa to move money out is thinning out rather quickly. At the end there will be only Yzerman's Red Wings and Ottawa. It will be a blood bath for Tampa.

 

[TBF1972]

Boychuk's cap hit is 6 million. The last two years of his deal have him with a signing bonus of 2.75 and actual salary of 1.25. That first bonus was already paid by the Islanders.

It really is only 5.25 million over the next two years. 12 million is a hard sell, but 5.25 is easier.

this sounds like an ottawa contract.

 

[Guttersniped]

Five years on Palms is a terrifying risk? And I thought I was conservative about older UFAs. The difference between signing a random scoring winger like Hoffman and resigning Palms is the blatantly obvious. We know his positives, he is already our best scoring winger who has already paired well with both Nico and Hughes on 5v5.

You can’t directly compare him to Eriksson or Lucic because in those case their teams let them walk, and in Lucic’s case LA also didn’t keep him either, and then a sucker “won” them as the highest bidder and they weren’t even very good on their new team from day one. (Eriksson also got 6 years/6m and Lucic 7 years/6m when the cap was 73m.)

Palm was more productive than Toffoli year in and year out on on what was definitely a worse team. Dadonov hasn’t produced away from him exceptional linemates to the same degree. I have nothing against these players but it’s weird downplaying how Palmieri has been able to steadily produce at 30 goal rate on this dumpster fire of a team with different sets of players.

I’m not enthusiastic giving him Gallagher’s 6 year/6.5m deal in this market either but a five year deal seems reasonable and I would be thrilled if they somehow got him down to four years.

The LeBrun article mentioned that Gallagher’s agent used Kreider’s contract as a comparable as he was 28 and Kreider got seven. LeBrun wonders if Bergevin refusing to go seven years was why talks momentarily broke down earlier in the week. I don’t know how enthusiastic the Devils would be about a six year deal either. Maybe the down market will get him to 4-5 years, that’s my best case scenario. Teams aren’t enthusiastic about term right now, though MB is comparatively profligate with the way he’s flinging our long term deals.

Next years UFA class isn’t robust, particularly if you remove the name of players likely to be resigned, the younger forwards: Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Landeskog, Jaden Schwartz, Saad, Nick Foligno, Tatar, Mojo, Dzingel. Who knows what Gusev will want if he puts up gaudy numbers, his contract even harder to gauge then Palmieri’s for obvious reasons.

 

[BurntToast]

Camps were supposed to start up soon...Now we are back in limbo...At least some of our prospects are playing overseas

 

[TBF1972]

In terms of what is available, I think he's about even. Whoever you sign will also likely cost you the same in cap dollars.

Just for reference, here is the UFA market above replacement level guys like Mueller:

Andy Greene -- Could be of use on the third pair, but time to move on.
Sami Vatanen -- We need a different defender than him
Dmitry Kulikov -- Could certainly be a solid option
Travis Hamonic -- Solid option but has no interest playing in Eastern Conference it seems
Ron Hainsey -- Wouldn't hate a one year deal here, but don't see why he would
Zdeno Chara -- Likely Boston or retirement for him. Don't see why he would sign here
Ben Hutton -- Likely goes the way of Moore when he first signed here, but we need more proven, veteran options right now.

If its Kulikov vs. Boychuk + 2nd and possibly more. I would rather Boychuk.

boychuk and second is a no go. 6 million in cap hit for two years, i would want at least two 1st round picks. there is heavy inflation on the price for cap space within the last two weeks only and believe me next off-season, it will be even crazier. plenty of teams have invested without a plan b for next season and plenty have resolved the cap crunch just for this season. there will multiple beggars out there. a two year cap dump will cost a fortune, as you need to price in the risk of an even more cap restricted market next season.

 

[TBF1972]

I don't care how determined he is, he ain't no #1D If we are playing him on the top pair, we are looking at another lottery pick for sure, with very good odds.

that's may the plan. playing him on the first pair,
a) could secure a high lottery pick for better d talent and/or
b) pimp his trade value.

 

[TBF1972]

I gotta be honest, I don't want to give him a 6 * $6.5 deal

and I still would like to re-sign him in general

don't emulate bergevin. bergevin overpaid in nearly every transaction in the off-season. let the cap space dry up and reap the benefits.

 

[TBF1972]

I don't mind Palms at $6.5 mil at all. People will say it's a bit much, but it's honestly a small increase on his current cap hit that doesn't put a dent into our current situation at all.

I feel pretty good about our current cap situation to not be too worried about what an extra $1.85 mil against it will do going forward. And I don't think his game will age as poorly as others do. I'm more optimistic than most though, I realize.

this years shiny fa signings/extensions are next years cap casualties. don't pay a player on past merits. pay him for his expected production. do you think palms will get significantly better? do you expect the cap to rise? 5x5m or 4x6m would be fine, but the devils shouldn't go above in a buyers market.

 

[TBF1972]

i'd be okay with a 6x6, or if we had to negotiate, 5x6.5 or 4x7 if need be. hughes, bratt, and blackwood will be issues, contract wise, going forward, but remember that we have subban and crawford coming off in 2 years to add to our current cap space

they come of the cap, but if the devils want to be better, than the present or the version of the last few seasons, you can't replace all of them with elc's or minimum contracts. blackwood might only signs a two year bridge deal and asks for most of the crawford cap as a raise. the rest would go to a back up. one year after subban severson will be a free agent. either you will have to sign/trade for a first pair replacement of subban or bank a few millions for the severson extension. the most you save is half of the subban cap hit.

 

[TBF1972]

6 years, $40M for palms and call it a day. a 30 goal scorer is worth that easily, never mind the intangibles he brings

again, i pay 6.5 million for a 30 goal scorer. but will palms be a 30 goal scorer in his 35/36 year old season. 5x5m, 4x6m, 3x6.5m this are more the versions of contract the devils should offer in this market.

 

[TBF1972]

Personally I would rather just throw all that money on Gusev. Palms is a good player but when he's not scoring goals he dissappears. Gusev has been the catalyst for every line he has been on so far. Every line he has been on exploded. We haven't even tried him at his natural spot at lw nor have we given him a chance next to Nico. If Palms is willing to sign a short term team friendly deal then sure but otherwise cut him lose. Especially now that we drafted holtz which will take Palms spot in a year.

palms is the much better defensive player than gusev. gusev needs to be sheltered or protected. palms can hold his own. i rather have palms than gusev. gusev might has another gear in him, but i want to see it first.

 

[Billdo]

Camps were supposed to start up soon...Now we are back in limbo...At least some of our prospects are playing overseas

I could've sworn I saw a player on social media say they were told to prepare for November 15th for camp.

 

[TBF1972]

people seem to forget that just a couple of years ago, palms was briefly scoring at a 200 goals/season rate. we can’t afford to lose that kind of productivity

the devils shouldn't offer him an extension. seems like he heavily declined since.

 

[hidek91]

Five years on Palms is a terrifying risk? And I thought I was conservative about older UFAs. The difference between signing a random scoring winger like Hoffman and resigning Palms is the blatantly obvious. We know his positives, he is already our best scoring winger who has already paired well with both Nico and Hughes on 5v5.

You can’t directly compare him to Eriksson or Lucic because in those case their teams let them walk, and in Lucic’s case LA also didn’t keep him either, and then a sucker “won” them as the highest bidder and they weren’t even very good on their new team from day one. (Eriksson also got 6 years/6m and Lucic 7 years/6m when the cap was 73m.)

Palm was more productive than Toffoli year in and year out on on what was definitely a worse team. Dadonov hasn’t produced away from him exceptional linemates to the same degree. I have nothing against these players but it’s weird downplaying how Palmieri has been able to steadily produce at 30 goal rate on this dumpster fire of a team with different sets of players.

I’m not enthusiastic giving him Gallagher’s 6 year/6.5m deal in this market either but a five year deal seems reasonable and I would be thrilled if they somehow got him down to four years.

The LeBrun article mentioned that Gallagher’s agent used Kreider’s contract as a comparable as he was 28 and Kreider got seven. LeBrun wonders if Bergevin refusing to go seven years was why talks momentarily broke down earlier in the week. I don’t know how enthusiastic the Devils would be about a six year deal either. Maybe the down market will get him to 4-5 years, that’s my best case scenario. Teams aren’t enthusiastic about term right now, though MB is comparatively profligate with the way he’s flinging our long term deals.

Next years UFA class isn’t robust, particularly if you remove the name of players likely to be resigned, the younger forwards: Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Landeskog, Jaden Schwartz, Saad, Nick Foligno, Tatar, Mojo, Dzingel. Who knows what Gusev will want if he puts up gaudy numbers, his contract even harder to gauge then Palmieri’s for obvious reasons.

Sorry, even though you usually make quality posts, I have to disagree with this one.

Our contention window aside, Palmieri (who's already not a great skater and lacks hockey IQ) at the moment when extension kicks in will be already exiting his prime. I like Palmieri as a player but with his profile signing him from 30 y. o. to 35 y. o. means that you risk getting PP specialist for majority of this deal. I'm not scared about PP part of this game but 5 v 5 decline is very likely.

Lucic is different beast because Lucic was prototype power forward, the type of forward that ages the worst (but also for some reason is very sexy to GMs). Lucic's contract was similar to Clarkson and Anderson, cases in which GMs want to add grit so badly that they sign awful contract (especially in terms of term). With different timing, Wayne Simmonds could be similar case. I agree that Eriksson is actually pretty bad comparable as in Eriksson's case there was a very short peak when he was star (ironically as a Dallas Star) forward and then there were problems after the trade to Boston that were overlooked by his last season there, which was pretty good. Palmieri's career was much more stable compared to Eriksson's.

Toffoli is very hard to analyze because he was playing on Kings team that was awful offensively but made up for that with good defence. After the trade to VAN, he had 14 points in 17 games (including playoffs). It is small sample size so you can't judge him on that either but to analyze Toffoli and ignore Kings' factor is a mistake. Toffoli was also 28 at the moment of signing the deal.

Dadonov produced very good numbers that are impressive even taking into account the quality of his teammates. Again, Dadonov is 31 and the term of his new contract reflects that.

I think in "normal" times you'd have to give Palmieri 5 years+ but since times aren't normal, I think that Palmieri will have to sign max. 3-4 year deal. But we will see.

 

[SpeakingOfTheDevils]

I'm not sure the Gallagher extension will impact the Palmieri negotiations as much as some people are thinking.

It'll certainly get mentioned, but the circumstances aren't that similar. Montreal backed itself into a corner with Gallagher by acquiring Anderson and then signing him to a now-clearly-above-market contract. They went high on Anderson, so they had to go higher with Gallagher.

Bergevin landed a good player and extended the heart and soul of their team, but he overpaid... by quite a bit.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

nothing groundbreaking, but

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

 

[Better Call Sal]

BuT hIs PoInTs PeR gAmE hAsN't ImPrOvEd.

I want to cite back to this article from the summer with Nico where he gives great quotes about his game and how some put too much stock into points. I think it shows a lot of character in how he views he has to play to be successful and that he's determined to be better. This is for the crowd that doesn't think Nico has improved of course.

Why Devils’ Nico Hischier doesn’t want to be judged by points

“I always say points sometimes get too much credit,” Hischier said. “For example, if you play a bad game but somehow you get two apples, people will say you had a good game. But I’m not happy.

“Then the other side, if you have a great game … couple shots, you made a couple good plays, played defense really good, shut down a line and there’s no points but you could easily have two, you could say it wasn’t a great game. But I thought that I actually played pretty good.

“So points obviously are important, but there’s so much more in hockey that count for winning games. One thing is points, but there are little things that don’t show up in the scoresheets and people sometimes don’t give too much credit for that, things you have to do to win a game, or even better, to win a Stanley Cup.”