Devils 2020-21 team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part VIII

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I’ll give it a shot

NJ: Cernak+Johnson
TB: zetterlund+5th

NJ: Cernak+Killorn
TB: wood+3rd

I'd need WAY more than that to take Johnson

Like Sergachev and still more

 

[Lou Bloom]

I'd need WAY more than that to take Johnson

Like Sergachev and still more

Johnson's overpaid but his contract isn't an anchor. He's still a very useful player and if I can get a future building block for our defense like Cernak just for taking on his contract, it really is a no brainer for me.

 

[Ol Dirty Bstrd]

I'd need WAY more than that to take Johnson

Like Sergachev and still more

That’s a pipe dream

 

[Nubmer6]

Just looking at Tampa's team, I'm not really sure there's a fit.

They really need all their D, so they really need to find a way to dump a forward. At the same time, I don't think we need any more forwards, especially a cap dump forward.

The only way I can see this working is if we trade Smith for Sergachev straight up.

 

[MadDevil]

Johnson's overpaid but his contract isn't an anchor. He's still a very useful player and if I can get a future building block for our defense like Cernak just for taking on his contract, it really is a no brainer for me.

Would Cernak actually be a "building block" for our defense? I ask this honestly because I really haven't paid much attention since like March.

 

[hidek91]

Would Cernak actually be a "building block" for our defense? I ask this honestly because I really haven't paid much attention since like March.

I think he was quite clearly #4D on Tampa behind Hedman, McDonagh and Sergachev. Some could argue that Shattenkirk was ahead of him but I'm not a big fan of Shattenkirk (due to the defensive issues). And to be quite frank, top 3 was quite easily ahead of Cernak. I think Cernak isn't a bad player but he's overrated due to playing on Tampa. If he was sweetener added to Tyler Johnson, we would regret the trade IMO.

He's (unless he improves) a complementary piece of a good defence, not a building block.

 

[Lou Bloom]

I think he was quite clearly #4D on Tampa behind Hedman, McDonagh and Sergachev. Some could argue that Shattenkirk was ahead of him but I'm not a big fan of Shattenkirk (due to the defensive issues). And to be quite frank, top 3 was quite easily ahead of Cernak. I think Cernak isn't a bad player but he's overrated due to playing on Tampa. If he was sweetener added to Tyler Johnson, we would regret the trade IMO.

He's (unless he improves) a complementary piece of a good defence, not a building block.

He was a valuable player for the best team in the NHL and has solidified himself as a legit top 4 defenseman and a really good shutdown player at only 23. In his first two seasons in the NHL he was given top 4 minutes on a championship contender and in his rookie season he was given a larger role than Sergachev was in his sophomore season.

 

[TBF1972]

i love nico, he’s very eliasy (new adjective, trademarked) in terms of intelligence. i like that he’s tempering expectations, but the expectation is that a 1OA 1C should be putting up a minimum of 65 points, which i think he’ll do in a full season. i think what he’s trying to say is spot on- if you do the little things right, the points will come

tempering expectations? he is talking about winning the stanley cup here.

 

[Monsieur Verdoux]

The Devils have had sneaky good offseason. According to Dom's model the Devils added 4.8 wins when they got Murray, Crawford and Johnson. Only the Red Wings added more wins (5.9).

NHL offseason by the numbers: Which teams have improved the most (and least)?

 

[TBF1972]

Wow. I didn't expect him to sign for less than what he was already making, and I didn't expect it to be two-way to boot. I guess it's a 1 year "Show Me" contract. I just hope there's a season for him to actually show us.

merkley is 23. it's put up or shut up time for him, if he wants to carve out an nhl career.

i am aware, he was unlucky with injuries. but that's part of the game. if you are not good enough to play or not healthy enough to play, the result is the same. you don't play.

 

[TBF1972]

Devil fans what do you think it would take for The Devils to get Cernak? We could do an offer sheet or try trade first what do you think it would take to get him?

Does it take bad contract coming back if so which one? What prospect ? Player off roster?

offer sheet is no option for cernak. the max salary you are willing to pay him (~4m/y) and tampa doesn't match (above 2.2m) requires a second as a compensation. the one, which was traded away in the gusev trade.
you may could get it back in a trade to help vegas with its cap. but i don't like that option very much. you probably get better value in cap move, where you don't ask for a very specific and unique asset.

 

[TBF1972]

I almost feel like we should make this a general TB trade thread since Tampa will likely be dealing with one of a few teams (us, Detroit, Ottawa, etc.) to resolve their cap issues.

add the kings and nashville to the list of potential suitors. blake was quoted, that he is finished accumulating assets and wants to exchange some of them to strengthen the nhl roster. as the players, tampa looks to move out, are very capable nhl players, los angeles should be very well in the mix. they might be more eager to trade with tampa than any other team.
nashville has freed up sizable cap amount for fa acquisitions. so far no player was signed into that salary slot. the cap space has comfortably room for cernak and one of ntc/nmc guys.

 

[MichaelJ]

The only way I can see this working is if we trade Smith for Sergachev straight up.

Well, if you insist...

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Johnson's overpaid but his contract isn't an anchor. He's still a very useful player and if I can get a future building block for our defense like Cernak just for taking on his contract, it really is a no brainer for me.

No he isn't. He is on a steep decline. If he were still useful, someone would have taken him for literally free. No one did.

That’s a pipe dream

Of course it is. Which means we ain't taking Johnson.

 

[NjdevilfanJim]

I think he was quite clearly #4D on Tampa behind Hedmhan, McDonagh and Sergachev. Some could argue that Shattenkirk was ahead of him but I'm not a big fan of Shattenkirk (due to the defensive issues). And to be quite frank, top 3 was quite easily ahead of Cernak. I think Cernak isn't a bad player but he's overrated due to playing on Tampa. If he was sweetener added to Tyler Johnson, we would regret the trade IMO.

He's (unless he improves) a complementary piece of a good defence, not a building block.

He played about 19 minutes per game in regular season and I think around 21 per game in the Playoffs.....Good team or not you still have to be able to play....Listen does it help yes to be on a good team yes but that's pretty impressive especially when the pressure was on them big time to win a cup....

 

[NjdevilfanJim]

Nico is one of the best 200 foot players in the NHL....You have to watch his whole game to see how good he is....Than watch at all the jabs slashes and extra hits he gets , most not called , that tells you he is annoying those that play against him with his play....not dirty play just tenacious all around hockey game play...This past year he showed he was a lot stronger too.....That's why I hope Fitz puts someone on the team that will make some players have fear about taking liberties on our top guys....Too many times you could hear it in Daneyko's voice that he wished he was on the ice to provide just that.....

 

[Guttersniped]

I think he was quite clearly #4D on Tampa behind Hedman, McDonagh and Sergachev. Some could argue that Shattenkirk was ahead of him but I'm not a big fan of Shattenkirk (due to the defensive issues). And to be quite frank, top 3 was quite easily ahead of Cernak. I think Cernak isn't a bad player but he's overrated due to playing on Tampa. If he was sweetener added to Tyler Johnson, we would regret the trade IMO.

He's (unless he improves) a complementary piece of a good defence, not a building block.

According to TB fans and looking at the advanced stats he was actually was much better in 2018-19. Bolt fans were disappointed with him in the regular season after his great rookie season which is why people’s claims that offer sheets of 4m+ were coming were met with shrugs (and skepticism). I don’t know how exactly good he is, he played two partial seasons on a team with fantastic defense and possession.

He certainly would be a very useful player to have and he’s only 23. Is anyone claiming he’s a future top 2? Then yeah, that’s probably a bit much as if now but people are talking about him as a future top 4 which seems realistic. The sophomore slump is definitely a very real phenomenon for young defensemen so even taking a small step back in regular season could have almost been expected.

He doesn’t make taking Johnson worth it to me because do I not want to take a four year cap dump just to pick him up. Tampa may end up keeping Cernak because his bridge deal comparatively cheap, Cirelli does feel like dead man walking of the three unless multiple forwards start getting moved out. I have no idea what Cernak would cost, I like the Killorn package because I would actually want Killorn but who know’s what Tampa does.

 

[Blackjack]

He played about 19 minutes per game in regular season and I think around 21 per game in the Playoffs.....Good team or not you still have to be able to play....Listen does it help yes to be on a good team yes but that's pretty impressive especially when the pressure was on them big time to win a cup....

He plays with top quality defensemen on a team that is fantastic at transitioning pucks out of the defensive zone and generating offensive pressure. I don't think it's unreasonable to wonder how he will look on a team that is routinely caved in its zone. FWIW, I think those are legitimate concerns with Cirelli and Sergachev too. It doesn't mean that they're not contributing to Tampa's success or that they're passengers or anything, but any time a player goes from one of the best teams in the league to one of the worst, you have to expect their performance to take a hit.

I mean, when is that last time a defenseman stepped on the ice for Tampa and looked bad? Stralman, Shattenkirk, and Bogosian are all very recent examples of defensemen that looked terrible either prior to or after playing for Tampa, but looked absolutely fine, if not downright good playing for the club. It's why I'm very reluctant to give up a good asset for any one of their RFAs. Happy to take an asset to help them move a contract (not TJ unless the price is huge), but the last thing we need to do is give up a good asset for Cernak and have him come in here looking like Mirco Mueller or something.

 

[HBK27]

I’ll give it a shot

NJ: Cernak+Johnson
TB: zetterlund+5th

NJ: Cernak+Killorn
TB: wood+3rd

I just don't see any way in which Johnson or Killorn waive their NTC's to come to NJ. Johnson has a full NTC and Killorn has a 16 team no-trade list, which we are certainly included on.

Players generally leave some money on the table in exchange for NTC's. Tampa also has a much more favorable state tax rate than NJ, so either player would also be losing a good chunk of money by waiving their NTC to come here. We're an up and coming team, but still probably a year or two away from even seriously competing for a playoff spot at this point whereas you have to figure even after the carnage of this offseason, Tampa will still head into next season as one of the Cup favorites.

It'll be fascinating to see how Tampa gets out of this mess. Stamkos, Palat, Gourde, Johnson, McDonagh and Coburn all have full NTC's. Killorn's 16 team no-trade list is pretty close to a full NTC this offseason as he can just name 14 teams that can't afford him on the list of approved teams. Ideally, they probably need to move two of those guys but what incentive do any of them have to waive their NTC in order to go to a worse team in a colder environment with a higher tax rate?

They're down to less than $2.9M in cap space with 3 significant RFA's to sign in Sergachev, Cernak and Cirelli. And even then, that's only a 20 man roster so a good chunk of the available cap space would go towards the 2-3 extra players you'd expect them to carry (Cal Foote for instance has a $925K cap hit).

The deals you mentioned are overpayments at this point. I don't even know if I'd do Smith for Sergachev as that feels like it's letting them off easy. It's going to be really painful for Tampa to get out of this - costing them RFA's for pennies on the dollar or gutting their prospect/picks in order to move some vets if they even decide to do Tampa a solid and waive their NTC's. Dishing out full NTC's to Palat, Gourde, Johnson & Killorn (his only recently just switched to a modified NTC) took away any flexibility - I wouldn't be surprised to see any of Palat, Gourde or Killorn go on waivers in a desperate attempt to shed salary as they did with Johnson.

 

[Devils731]

LeBrun: NHL GMs call likely to focus on season logistics, AHL start date

Says the NHL and NHLPA have generally agreed to allowing the 7 non-qualifying teams to have training camp start early and maybe enjoy some extra preseason games. Nothing concrete yet though.

 

[LeedsMonster]

NJ Nino Neiderreiter, Pesce

Car Boqvuist, 3rd


How far off am I?

 

[RememberTheName]

NJ Nino Neiderreiter, Pesce

Car Boqvuist, 3rd


How far off am I?

Pesce is probably similar in value to Laine for Carolina or Nylander for Toronto. This is really, really bad for the Canes and they have no reason to give him up, especially with the contract he is on.

 

[Guttersniped]

He plays with top quality defensemen on a team that is fantastic at transitioning pucks out of the defensive zone and generating offensive pressure. I don't think it's unreasonable to wonder how he will look on a team that is routinely caved in its zone. FWIW, I think those are legitimate concerns with Cirelli and Sergachev too. It doesn't mean that they're not contributing to Tampa's success or that they're passengers or anything, but any time a player goes from one of the best teams in the league to one of the worst, you have to expect their performance to take a hit.

I mean, when is that last time a defenseman stepped on the ice for Tampa and looked bad? Stralman, Shattenkirk, and Bogosian are all very recent examples of defensemen that looked terrible either prior to or after playing for Tampa, but looked absolutely fine, if not downright good playing for the club. It's why I'm very reluctant to give up a good asset for any one of their RFAs. Happy to take an asset to help them move a contract (not TJ unless the price is huge), but the last thing we need to do is give up a good asset for Cernak and have him come in here looking like Mirco Mueller or something.

I’m not disagreeing with your point about Cernak, but Jon Cooper didn’t think anyone looks they good playing defense on TB considering he went with 7D until the Cup finals, finally going with 6 I assume because the condensed schedule and injuries started wearing down his forwards. Unfortunately for him the two other defensemen he used the most, Shattenkirk and Bogosian, are now on other teams.

The Tampa defense was built out of necessity. They had the top three, Cernak on an ELC and 5 bargain finds/scraps (Shattenkirk, Coburn, Rutta, Schenn and Bogosian) with a combined cap hit of 6.75m.

Considering Vasilevskiy cap hit is 6m bigger this year then all the money being spent on forwards is even more of a problem and I don’t see how Cirelli stays but losing either RFA defensemen is a very bad for Tampa.

Here are the playoff defensive pairing if anyone is curious who played with who the most.
Defensive Pairs - Natural Stat Trick

 

[GameSeven]

NJ Nino Neiderreiter, Pesce

Car Boqvuist, 3rd


How far off am I?

Pretty far. Why does Carolina do this?

 

[NjdevilfanJim]

He plays with top quality defensemen on a team that is fantastic at transitioning pucks out of the defensive zone and generating offensive pressure. I don't think it's unreasonable to wonder how he will look on a team that is routinely caved in its zone. FWIW, I think those are legitimate concerns with Cirelli and Sergachev too. It doesn't mean that they're not contributing to Tampa's success or that they're passengers or anything, but any time a player goes from one of the best teams in the league to one of the worst, you have to expect their performance to take a hit.

I mean, when is that last time a defenseman stepped on the ice for Tampa and looked bad? Stralman, Shattenkirk, and Bogosian are all very recent examples of defensemen that looked terrible either prior to or after playing for Tampa, but looked absolutely fine, if not downright good playing for the club. It's why I'm very reluctant to give up a good asset for any one of their RFAs. Happy to take an asset to help them move a contract (not TJ unless the price is huge), but the last thing we need to do is give up a good asset for Cernak and have him come in here looking like Mirco Mueller or something.

Those are fair points and add a light to the risks...... I agree with your points especially with Shattenkirk he fit their style and produced.....But with Cernak scouts rate him now as a top 4 stay at home physical defenseman who's only question is will he produce more offense and to your point can he do it on a less talented team so no one questions his defense or physicality that already makes him no Mueller.....Plus he adds youth to our right side if he gets paired with smith you could be looking at a foundational pairing for the Devils.... On his offense I think it's growing but to be fair as you pointed out hard to tell because of the team he is on.....