Devils 2020-21 team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part VIII

[SteveCangialosi123]

You can't look at it solely based on what we have NOW though. That's how you get trapped. Ask yourself, is that one year of Palmieri worth potentially losing someone that fits the timeline better? We CAN afford to move on because we've put ourselves in that position by drafting Holtz and Mercer. Two top 6 RWs that'll both contribute at a high level in the NHL.

There are multiple ways to look at it but the "what we have now" part isn't really one of them. What we have now has no bearing on what we will have in the future.

I think you’re overrating the importance of a single bad contract and overrating the possibility of him becoming a Loui Eriksson. And you’re underrating the effect of being unbelievably terrible in the formative years of our 1st overall picks.

Sign the good player to a deal within the range of his peers and give your young guys a chance to be competitive.

 

[beekay414]

There are viable reasons for both sides in this argument. That's really all there is to it. We can move on now.

 

[beekay414]

I think you’re overrating the importance of a single bad contract and overrating the possibility of him becoming a Loui Eriksson. And you’re underrating the effect of being unbelievably terrible in the formative years of our 1st overall picks.

Sign the good player to a deal within the range of his peers and give your young guys a chance to be competitive.

Good thing we haven't been "unbelievably terrible" at any point in this process. We're not the Red Wings.

 

[Billdo]

Palmieri is over a year older than Gallagher and for me, not as good. Give him $6 x 5 and call it a day.

Palmieri statistically is better, albeit a relatively small difference but I wouldn't say Gallagher is better.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Good thing we haven't been "unbelievably terrible" at any point in this process. We're not the Red Wings.

We’ve had one year of resembling anything close to good with all of Hall, Palmieri, and Coleman. Remove them all, what do you think that looks like?

 

[beekay414]

We’ve had one year of resembling anything close to good with all of Hall, Palmieri, and Coleman. Remove them all, what do you think that looks like?

Depends? What else did we do? Because you can't just play the subtraction game. That's being completely disingenuous to the conversation.

 

[MartyOwns]

palms asks for a 2 year, $17M contract. wyd

 

[NJDevs26]

not to get off-topic but just for future reference so I know- are we allowed to post content from places like the athletic that require a subscription to read?

Only two or three line snippets, not whole articles.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Depends? What else did we do? Because you can't just play the subtraction game. That's being completely disingenuous to the conversation.

Not going to go around in circles, but they would be unwatchable without Palmieri on the team. There isn’t a move that’s happening to offset losing him as an already crappy team with very few finishers. Well, a move that is rooted in reality, at least.

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

Not going to go around in circles, but they would be unwatchable without Palmieri on the team. There isn’t a move that’s happening to offset losing him as an already crappy team with very few finishers. Well, a move that is rooted in reality, at least.

If the article is to be believed Palms will be on the team when the season starts since they are not shopping him. What is the difference if he has an extension before the season?

 

[MauDevils]

palms asks for a 2 year, $17M contract. wyd

Then he can take a walk. We just saw very comparable players sign for literally half of that amount.

I'd rather not lose flexibility over the next two years for a guy who probably wont see another contract after that.

I love him as a Devil, but I just can't see this team doing much in those 2 years anyway.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

If the article is to be believed Palms will be on the team when the season starts since they are not shopping him. What is the difference if he has an extension before the season?

If he’s not signed by the deadline then I guess our hand is forced. Losing him for nothing can’t be an option either.

 

[Nocashstyle]

Good thing we haven't been "unbelievably terrible" at any point in this process. We're not the Red Wings.

I’d say realistically having no chance at making the playoffs after one month of regular season play is “unbelievably terrible.” It’s been like that for how many years? Save for the outlier 2018 season.

 

[Guttersniped]

It is absolutely reasonable to expect Palms to continue scoring 20-30 goals for the next 5-6 years. Nico/Jack will be entering their prime years during that time. How quickly we forget Palms put up 30 with center depth of Henrique, Zajac, Josefson, and Kalinin.

Players do decline after 30 and goal scoring is specifically a skill that declines sooner.

That said, Palms goal scoring has been absurdly steady ever since he arrived. There’s been no decline as of yet. Overall, he’s scored at 30 goal rate his entire time as a Devil, though 2018-19 would have been technically 29.52G in 82 and there was one genuine dip in 2016-17 and it would have been 27G at 82.

And if you were wondering, those fluctuations really came from the power play and not 5v5, where Palmieri has been Steady Eddie. The shooting % and shot rate stays the remarkably steady for five years.

He does get banged up and miss games seemingly every year now, that’s a negative. There are comparable players, not Lucic (I mean, come on) but you can look at others, and stats guys have attempted modeling predictions about how a players future production will decline and you have to consider it.

I’d prefer to keep him, five years doesn’t seem that particularly back breaking. Our PP would be catastrophically worse without him, he’s a top 6 forward who actually plays defense on this team. I think Hughes needs him next season. I don’t see how the team could even low ball him into a very short deal, if he signs one it would likely be with a different team.

There’s no resolving the debate, the only question that really matter is how Fitz, Palm and the ownership are leaning and, wow, do I swing back and forth on my guesses about that.

Kyle Palmieri - Summary - Natural Stat Trick

Kyle Palmieri - Summary - Natural Stat Trick

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

I love Palms and want to keep him but 6 years seems like too many, Gallagher is a year younger and got 6 years. I’m hoping 5x5.5-6 is the contract if he stays. If he doesn’t stay and we do move him we will have 4.5 mill to work with and teams are still struggling in this cap situation so it’s not like we just lose him and nothing can be done to fill that hole. Mike Hoffman is still a FA and might want to play on a first line for a 1 year deal. I don’t think it’s the end of the world if we recoup some premium assets for Palms because Fitzgerald doesn’t want a potential bottom six winger (assuming a drop off and other players being better) making 5-6 million when Nico is 26 and Jack is 24. I really like what Palms brings in every aspect, but i also don’t think we need to be giving him a contract that could hurt us longterm either.

 

[Hisch13r]

Personally I would rather just throw all that money on Gusev. Palms is a good player but when he's not scoring goals he dissappears. Gusev has been the catalyst for every line he has been on so far. Every line he has been on exploded. We haven't even tried him at his natural spot at lw nor have we given him a chance next to Nico. If Palms is willing to sign a short term team friendly deal then sure but otherwise cut him lose. Especially now that we drafted holtz which will take Palms spot in a year.

Palms is a really good defensive forward

 

[Triumph]

After the Coleman trade, the Devils were last in the league territorially. So while obviously Detroit bad is out of the question - Detroit was bad and they had two awful goaltenders - it still could be quite bad here next season.

 

[Billdo]

If the article is to be believed Palms will be on the team when the season starts since they are not shopping him. What is the difference if he has an extension before the season?

Generally speaking if you don't sign prior to the season it makes fans think there is more of a chance of you leaving. I mean if I had the opportunity to see what was out there is I waited a few months, I'd probably do that. Of course we've been burned by this type of thing before anyway so that's probably why more people seem to think if you don't sign the summer before, you're a goner.

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

Generally speaking if you don't sign prior to the season it makes fans think there is more of a chance of you leaving. I mean if I had the opportunity to see what was out there is I waited a few months, I'd probably do that. Of course we've been burned by this type of thing before anyway so that's probably why more people seem to think if you don't sign the summer before, you're a goner.

It also worked out to the Devils advantage last season not negotiating with Hall prior to the season. We do not know what the FA market will be like next year. I have a feeling Palms would think long and hard about turning down a solid offer to test the market. It will be interesting to watch this play out.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I would offer Palmieri 5 years, $30 million

 

[Lou Bloom]

I'm a big fan of Palms but shoot first wingers tend to decline quickly once they hit their 30s, I'd much rather flip him at the trade deadline and invest in Gusev who should be primed for a big year this season.

 

[TrufleShufle]

I'm a big fan of Palms but shoot first wingers tend to decline quickly once they hit their 30s, I'd much rather flip him at the trade deadline and invest in Gusev who should be primed for a big year this season.

Even if he declined from a shoot first winger and started shooting second, I'd still want him to be a part of the core in the future as a future Zajac who can play mostly bottom 6 and hop up in a pinch whenever needed.

 

[Lou Bloom]

Even if he declined from a shoot first winger and started shooting second, I'd still want him to be a part of the core in the future as a future Zajac who can play mostly bottom 6 and hop up in a pinch whenever needed.

Paying $6M+ for a bottom six player during Hischier and Hughes prime years would be a huge anchor. The only reason we don't talk about Zajac that way is because we haven't been competitive and didn't need the cap space.

 

[beekay414]

I would offer Palmieri 5 years, $30 million

I offer him 4/$28m

 

[GeNeXt]

I’d go 3 years, $18- 24 million.

Takes him to 33. Potentially a bit steep, but attractive enough to get a deal done. I think the deals signed this offseason we’re due to the cap ceiling staying in place. I expect it to increase if we get somewhat back to normal next season.

Why structure it this way? I assume Holtz’s ELC would align perfectly with Palm’s extension if structured this way. So, if Holtz really does live up to his potential as 30+ goal scorer, you’ll have Palm’s contracts off the books when it comes time to extend Holtz.

Again, Palms would be 33, and you can likely negotiate another two year deal for him to finish out his career with a contending team for a lower salary. Rather than having him on the books for a much steeper cap hit those final two years.