Devils 2019 offseason team discussion (news and notes) XI

[None Shall Pass]

All those years you mention and yet we still competed for division title every year. So are they really that important?

We competed for those division titles on the backs of Lou and Conte's previous draft work. Brodeur, Elias, Gomez, Parise, Zajac, Martin, White; Greene, Rafalski, Oduya and Madden weren't drafted but same difference etc. You can see a sharp dropoff after the 2004 draft.

Lou did have a way with trades, too, which is another way we were able to stay competitive.


(Weird, possibly unrelated fact: our 2015 draft is our first draft where every player has played at least one NHL game).

 

[Nubmer6]

(Weird, possibly unrelated fact: our 2015 draft is our first draft where every player has played at least one NHL game).

I wonder how often that's ever been accomplished. I would think it's very rare for ANY team to pull off, unless they traded away the vast majority of their picks.

 

[JrFischer54]

I was just curious... If we were to do the offer sheet and we gave up 4 firsts, and drafted 20th in each draft... what would it have looked liked a few years ago. I went back 4 years because it's harder to judge how good the players are after just a few years:

2016: Dennis Cholowski - Detroit
2015: Joel Eriksson Ek - Minnesota
2014: Nick Schmaltz - Chicago
2013: Anthony Mantha - Detroit

It's a lot of presumptions, and I'm countering my argument that I DON'T want to OS him, but I'd think most teams would trade those players for Marner and a 12.5M cap hit in an instant.

Couldn’t have said it better myself

Again if the going rate through a trade for a signed marner is nico and picks or Hughes and picks. Then why wouldn’t you offer up four 1st rounders? It’s a no brainer. The fact that the leafs probably don’t even want the picks but rather trade him speaks volumes at how valuable marner is

 

[Devils731]

I mean you make it sound so simple like damn why doesn’t every team just do that? of course if our draft pick turns out good it will look good and what if he flames out? It will look bad. Other news water is wet.

Btw you will have a lot of teams passing on a player that late in the first round? Are you confident another Smith will fall?

I’m confident the Devils will not get an effective player on an ELC deal in the first round if they don’t have any first round picks.

Dollars versus ability is a big deal. Marner is certainly worth his dollars but you hamstring yourself if you sacrifice 4 years worth of potential high value.

 

[JrFischer54]

We competed for those division titles on the backs of Lou and Conte's previous draft work. Brodeur, Elias, Gomez, Parise, Zajac, Martin, White; Greene, Rafalski, Oduya and Madden weren't drafted but same difference etc. You can see a sharp dropoff after the 2004 draft.

Lou did have a way with trades, too, which is another way we were able to stay competitive.


(Weird, possibly unrelated fact: our 2015 draft is our first draft where every player has played at least one NHL game).

So players acquired waaaaaay before and on the backs of a few super star players and undrafted and non first round gems? Not exactly convincing me offer sheet is bad

 

[JrFischer54]

I’m confident the Devils will not get an effective player on an ELC deal in the first round if they don’t have any first round picks.

Dollars versus ability is a big deal. Marner is certainly worth his dollars but you hamstring yourself if you sacrifice 4 years worth of potential high value.

Picking that far back in the draft it’s worth the risk

 

[Triumph]

But this is not the point. At least, not mine. The point is that when you and others make it like Quenneville, Matteau, Tedenby, and Josefson are the product of an incompetent GM that the game had passed by, and is far less likely to happen because the difference is we gained a competent GM, while going blind to the fact that the last few years of Shero's first round picks in Pittsburgh look like this...

Angelo Esposito (20th), Simon Despres (30th), Beau Bennett (20th), Joe Morrow (23rd), Derrick Pouliot (8th), Olli Matta (22nd)

Of course I prefer what we have now. But that came via high draft picks and an abundance of them, and lottery winS. The point here goes back to Marner and the 1st round picks. And that we will be far more likely to discover players in the later part of the 1st round because big bad Lou is gone is a faulty narrative. That's the point.

Despres, Bennett, and Maata all appeared to be at least competent NHLers when healthy but all 3 dealt with serious injuries over their careers. None of them would've been stars but they certainly could've been average players. Health is a skill but it can rarely be identified in the NHL draft.

Esposito and Morrow were both dealt less than two years after being picked, which is not a plus - you rarely get value that way - but at least Shero is not theoretically averse to cutting bait with guys his scouting staff loved less than a year ago, and neither guy turned into anything.

I'm only using Shero and Lamoriello as metonyms for the actual selecting process which is up to the scouting staff. I don't believe 'Lou' made those picks and I don't think 'Shero' is making them now.

 

[Devs4L]

Lou ain't here anymore.

Shero's last 8 first rounds in Pittsburgh

2007 - Angelo Esposito (20th)
2008 - No 1st round pick
2009 - Simon Despres (30th)
2010 - Beau Bennett (20th)
2011 - Joe Morrow (23rd)
2012 - Derrick Pouliot (8th), Olli Maatta (22nd)
2013 - No first round pick
2014 - Kasperi Kapanen

...Lou wasn't there either.

 

[Nubmer6]

Shero's last 8 first rounds in Pittsburgh

2007 - Angelo Esposito (20th)
2008 - No 1st round pick
2009 - Simon Despres (30th)
2010 - Beau Bennett (20th)
2011 - Joe Morrow (23rd)
2012 - Derrick Pouliot (8th), Olli Maatta (22nd)
2013 - No first round pick
2014 - Kasperi Kapanen

...Lou wasn't there either.

I'm wondering if Castron's drafting record is a better gauge.

 

[Call Me Al]

i think some of you are overstating the gm’s role in the draft. castron >>>>> conte. it doesn’t matter what he did in pittsburgh

 

[Devs4L]

Despres, Bennett, and Maata all appeared to be at least competent NHLers when healthy but all 3 dealt with serious injuries over their careers. None of them would've been stars but they certainly could've been average players. Health is a skill but it can rarely be identified in the NHL draft.

Esposito and Morrow were both dealt less than two years after being picked, which is not a plus - you rarely get value that way - but at least Shero is not theoretically averse to cutting bait with guys his scouting staff loved less than a year ago, and neither guy turned into anything.

I'm only using Shero and Lamoriello as metonyms for the actual selecting process which is up to the scouting staff. I don't believe 'Lou' made those picks and I don't think 'Shero' is making them now.

However you slice it, all marginal players at best, busts at worse. All happened under a Shero lead regime, later in the 1st round, and prove the point that he's in no way immune to those kind of selections, and when combined with other draft history prove to simply be a common occurrence league-wide when drafting in that range.

Interview every first round bust and they'll tell you all the underlying reasons they didn't make it too. We can play that game until the cows come home.

 

[JrFischer54]

However you slice it, all marginal players at best, busts at worse. All happened under a Shero lead regime, later in the 1st round, and prove the point that he's in no way immune to those kind of selections, and when combined with other draft history prove to simply be a common occurrence league-wide when drafting in that range.

Interview every first round bust and they'll tell you all the underlying reasons and they didn't make it too. We can play that game until the cows come home.

Really makes you wonder why more teams don’t give the four picks up.

I read people saying that they don’t want to give up the picks and THEN pay marner 12 million. Um what? Would you rather trade players and then pay him? Either way you gotta give to get

 

[MauDevils]

He wants 3 years to bait a team in. Then he will only take a 1 year deal and walk to free agency. This kid and his dad are nothing but problems.

 

[Devs4L]

I'm wondering if Castron's drafting record is a better gauge.

I hope not.

Rostislav Klesla, Pascal Leclaire, Rick Nash (1st overall), Zherdev, Picard, Gilbert Brule, Derrick Brassard, Voracek, Filatov, John Moore, Ryan Johansen, Ryan Murray, Alex Wennberg, Rychel, Marko Dano, Sonny Milano

...Every 1st rounder made while Castron was in Columbus. A ton of misses. A couple 3rd/4th line, 3rd pair D types. And the vast majority of those 1st rounders being picks in the top 10. Basically, the only good ones. Very few years picking 19-30. Only Rychel, Dano, and Moore. Milano and Wennberg were mid-1st round.

And again, this is not an inspection of who drafted better. Of course there's beyond the 1st round that matters. This at its core goes to whether it's worth it to give the 1st rounders for Marner, and how simply blaming Lou or Conte for the likes of Matteau and Quenneville is flawed.

 

[Andre Palot]

You know, what we could do is offer sheet Marner and trade Hall for a collection of picks to off-set the loss. (Say two first round picks back)

Because as I've said you can't have two wingers making 11 mil + each.

 

[Triumph]

However you slice it, all marginal players at best, busts at worse. All happened under a Shero lead regime, later in the 1st round, and prove the point that he's in no way immune to those kind of selections, and when combined with other draft history prove to simply be a common occurrence league-wide when drafting in that range.

Interview every first round bust and they'll tell you all the underlying reasons and they didn't make it too. We can play that game until the cows come home.

You should've read what you didn't bold - Shero doesn't pick any more than Lou did. The scouting staff makes the picks. The scouting staff here is not the same as the scouting staff in Pittsburgh, and scouting staffs aren't perfect.

Despres, Maatta, and Bennett were marginal players BECAUSE they were injured. Even an average player under team control is a large boon.

 

[Devs4L]

You should've read what you didn't bold - Shero doesn't pick any more than Lou did. The scouting staff makes the picks. The scouting staff here is not the same as the scouting staff in Pittsburgh, and scouting staffs aren't perfect.

Despres, Maatta, and Bennett were marginal players BECAUSE they were injured. Even an average player under team control is a large boon.

And you should have read my post above citing our own head scouts picks while spending 15 years in Columbus. And again, the point here is Marner. You're debating whether certain players were "average", "competent" and what could have been for others. If you wouldn't give those for Marner then we'll agree to disagree.

Look, you don't have to agree or want to give the picks. But to make it like those picks have more value now because of Shero and Castron, or that they're now less likely to pick a Matteau, Tedenby, Quenneville, or Despres, Esposito, Bennett, Morrow, or Rychel, Wennberg, Dano, Milano - that it was just a Lou+Conte thing - is ridiculous.

I've cited staffs (all connected to the Devils) across three teams now, and you can muddy it how you want, but the point remains the same. The same way Shero and his staff had those stretches in Pittsburgh while picking at that point of the draft, or Castron in Columbus, or Lou/Conte and staff here, it's very likely for the same to happen here, and at least 2 or 3 of those picks amount to nothing you wouldn't give up for Marner.

 

[JrFischer54]

He wants 3 years to bait a team in. Then he will only take a 1 year deal and walk to free agency. This kid and his dad are nothing but problems.

Stop just stop

 

[KohoDonuts88]

Working off the assumption Marner makes us a playoff team, and why would you do it otherwise, there is at best a 50% chance a bottom half first round pick becomes a 200+GP NHLer and probably no better than 50% chance that player becomes a top 6 forward or top 4 D. Compared with a near guarantee of several years of top line production from Marner (or similar RFA) that to me is a risk worth taking. Cap management is of course another issue entirely. But I think no question an offer sheet on a high quality RFA is worth the gamble.

 

[Triumph]

I hope not.

Rostislav Klesla, Pascal Leclaire, Rick Nash (1st overall), Zherdev, Picard, Gilbert Brule, Derrick Brassard, Voracek, Filatov, John Moore, Ryan Johansen, Ryan Murray, Alex Wennberg, Rychel, Marko Dano, Sonny Milano

...Every 1st rounder made while Castron was in Columbus. A ton of misses. A couple 3rd/4th line, 3rd pair D types. And the vast majority of those 1st rounders being picks in the top 10. Basically, the only good ones. Very few years picking 19-30. Only Rychel, Dano, and Moore. Milano and Wennberg were mid-1st round.

And again, this is not an inspection of who drafted better. Of course there's beyond the 1st round that matters. This at its core goes to whether it's worth it to give the 1st rounders for Marner, and how simply blaming Lou or Conte for the likes of Matteau and Quenneville is flawed.

Castron was the scouting director for 9 years - he started in 07 (Voracek) and has a decent record. No one nails them all. I don't even think Castron is that much better than the field, but I think he is a little better. That said, yeah, most late 1st round picks miss - far more than hit. Part of the problem with Conte is how hard his picks missed in the later years - it's one thing to miss on someone like Quenneville who is a 1st liner in the AHL but who cannot seem to crack the NHL. That's a fine miss. It's yet another to pick guys who don't even end up playing pro hockey in a 2nd tier league, which is something that Conte did constantly in his later years here.

 

[Triumph]

And you should have read my post above citing our own head scouts picks while spending 15 years in Columbus. And again, the point here is Marner. You're debating whether certain players were "average", "competent" and what could have been for others. If you wouldn't give those for Marner then we'll agree to disagree.

Look, you don't have to agree or want to give the picks. But to make it like those picks have more value now because of Shero and Castron, or that they're now less likely to pick a Matteau, Tedenby, Quenneville, or Despres, Esposito, Bennett, Morrow, or Rychel, Wennberg, Dano, Milano - that it was just a Lou+Conte thing - is ridiculous.

I've sited staffs (all connected to the Devils) across three teams now, and you can muddy it how you want, but the point remains the same. The same way Shero and his staff had those stretches in Pittsburgh while picking at that point of the draft, or Castron in Columbus, or Lou/Conte and staff here, it's very likely for the same to happen here, and at least 2 or 3 of those picks amount to nothing you wouldn't give up for Marner.

It's not just a Lou+Conte thing but Lou+Conte were bad in their last years here and got terrible results. There's just no arguing that, but people like you want to do that.

Marner at $12M isn't value. If the Devils could trade 4 1st round picks and sign Marner to a reasonable contract then yeah, that is something I would consider. But to pay Marner over market and 4 1st round picks is not worth it. It's not worth it because the Devils will need cheap players who are good to sustain a team, and their best avenue for doing that, the 1st round, will be blocked.

 

[Devs4L]

Castron was the scouting director for 9 years - he started in 07 (Voracek) and has a decent record. No one nails them all. I don't even think Castron is that much better than the field, but I think he is a little better. That said, yeah, most late 1st round picks miss - far more than hit. Part of the problem with Conte is how hard his picks missed in the later years - it's one thing to miss on someone like Quenneville who is a 1st liner in the AHL but who cannot seem to crack the NHL. That's a fine miss. It's yet another to pick guys who don't even end up playing pro hockey in a 2nd tier league, which is something that Conte did constantly in his later years here.

But in regard to Marner, a miss is a miss is a miss is a player I wouldn't regret losing for Marner. Whether we're talking Dano or even a John Moore, or whether we're talking a Tedenby.

 

[Nubmer6]

Not that they would have finished that low if the offer wasn't matched.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Shero's last 8 first rounds in Pittsburgh

2007 - Angelo Esposito (20th)
2008 - No 1st round pick
2009 - Simon Despres (30th)
2010 - Beau Bennett (20th)
2011 - Joe Morrow (23rd)
2012 - Derrick Pouliot (8th), Olli Maatta (22nd)
2013 - No first round pick
2014 - Kasperi Kapanen

...Lou wasn't there either.

Paul castron.

 

[Devs4L]

Working off the assumption Marner makes us a playoff team, and why would you do it otherwise, there is at best a 50% chance a bottom half first round pick becomes a 200+GP NHLer and probably no better than 50% chance that player becomes a top 6 forward or top 4 D. Compared with a near guarantee of several years of top line production from Marner (or similar RFA) that to me is a risk worth taking. Cap management is of course another issue entitely. But I think no question an offer sheet on a high quality RFA is worth the gamble.

Exactly. This is the whole point. We can debate on the money aspect of it, although I'd still do it. When you consider all I've posted, and where this team is in terms of elite young talent making the team, the draft picks are just not a debate for me.

Especially when we're getting Marner and then only going, say, two years before we can draft in the 1st again, and if we wanted we could move up into the 1st at any point.