Devils 2019 offseason team discussion (news and notes) XI

[None Shall Pass]

Yeah now that we have a team that can actually draft, we should be even more protective of our 1st round picks.

Ray's team isn't picking JQs and Tedenbys (Tedenbies?). Our drafting was ABYSMAL regardless of our draft position between Zajac in 2004 and Zacha in 2015. The Athletic did an article about it that I posted a few months back. We were awful in those last years of Conte.

Would you take the guaranteed 5M over four shots at 10M at 50/50? Some would say yes, others no.

Expected value, expected utility and multi-attribute utility theory

 

[Nubmer6]

Ok, to be fair, I don't think we'll be getting top 3 OA with our current lineup, especially if we offer sheet Marner, but there's a question of how you want to build the lineup. Would you prefer something like a Pitt setup where you have a few superstars surrounded by marginal players, or would you rather build around one or two superstars with semi-stars supporting them. I'm sure there's arguments for both.

The other thing I consider is what phase of a rebuild the team is in. I think we're finally filling in all our holes, and have one, maybe two holes left. I don't feel like we have much depth though, especially on D. It would make more sense to me to consolidate good players into a single great player if we had the depth to fill in the holes created. I'm not quite sure we have that though. Not yet.

 

[Devs4L]

What about a Nico, Smith and Hughes?

It's far more likely we're drafting in the range of where Matteau, Tedenby, Josefson, and Quenneville went if we add Marner than where Nico, Hughes, and even Smith for that matter went.

If this team added Marner and continued to pick top 5 as we've been, a lot of players would be heading out to try to recoup some of those firsts, and a lot of people would be getting fired. There would be absolutely no reason to be drafting in that range with that kind of roster.

 

[MartyOwns]

I don't know we would ever recover giving up a few Quennevilles and Matteaus, god forbid a Tedenby or Josefson.

there’s a common denominator with all of those names, and it rhymes with shoe shamoriello

 

[Devs4L]

there’s a common denominator with all of those names, and it rhymes with shoe shamoriello

Yeah. Same guy that drafted the greatest goalie of all time, the greatest forward this franchise has ever had, and Zach Parise all outside of the top 15.

He must have just forgot how to draft, or the game passed him by.

Or it's just the draft being the draft when you're selecting 17/18 year olds.

 

[None Shall Pass]

Found my old post. Here's the direct link: Devils 2018-19 team discussion (news and notes) - part XIX

tl;dr: Lou and Conte were bad at drafting after 2004. The second worst team over that time frame, even controlling for draft position.

Analyzing 16 years of NHL draft data to see which teams have...

A deep dive on draft results for the past 16 years. Key points:

-We had the 23rd ranked average draft position over that time frame (Out of 30, so near the bottom).
-We had the 29th ranked average draft results over that time frame (Second to last; only better than Vancouver). So our drafting underperformed.
-Our best draft years in that timeframe, to the surprise of no one: 2003, 2004, 2016, 2017.
-2014 was our worst draft, followed by 2006, then 2010.


--------


It's even worse when you think of it this way:

Two of our best drafts were 2003 and 2004. We got a total of two (Or three) NHL players out of them combined: Parise and Zajac. (And PL3). Granted, we didn't have a lot of picks in the 2004 draft.

Even worse, those were the two highest rated drafts league-wide in those 16 years. 2006 was the third best, and it was our second worst.

It was a bad time for the empire.

-------

Pittsburgh was at 25th and still managed to be the 4th best in that time frame. Hawks were 20th and the 2nd best. Caps were 21st and the 3rd best. San Jose was 30th (!) and the 7th best.

It helps that most of those teams had a #1 overall or two, but you also need to get quality in later picks. (Letang, Carlson, Crawford, Keith, Guentzel, etc.)

We got outgunned pretty hard. No other way to sell it, really.

-------

Looking back fondly on the last 5-6 years (At least) of the Lou / Conte duo for this team, outside of the cup run, is some serious Baghdad Bob stuff.

 

[MartyOwns]

Yeah. Same guy that drafted the greatest goalie of all time, the greatest forward this franchise has ever had, and Zach Parise all outside of the top 15.

He must have just forgot how to draft, or the game passed him by.

Or it's just the draft being the draft when you're selecting 17/18 year olds.

i know you were being sarcastic, but you accidentally hit the nail on the head. no argument that he did some great things 20 years ago, though

 

[None Shall Pass]

Also remember that we COULD have had a higher pick in Lou's later years but he didn't want to surrender 29th overall. It was a BS penalty to begin with, but still.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Yeah. Same guy that drafted the greatest goalie of all time, the greatest forward this franchise has ever had, and Zach Parise all outside of the top 15.

He must have just forgot how to draft, or the game passed him by.

Or it's just the draft being the draft when you're selecting 17/18 year olds.

You're right, the game did pass him by

 

[Blender]

Found my old post. Here's the direct link: Devils 2018-19 team discussion (news and notes) - part XIX

tl;dr: Lou and Conte were bad at drafting after 2004. The second worst team over that time frame, even controlling for draft position.

Analyzing 16 years of NHL draft data to see which teams have...

A deep dive on draft results for the past 16 years. Key points:

-We had the 23rd ranked average draft position over that time frame (Out of 30, so near the bottom).
-We had the 29th ranked average draft results over that time frame (Second to last; only better than Vancouver). So our drafting underperformed.
-Our best draft years in that timeframe, to the surprise of no one: 2003, 2004, 2016, 2017.
-2014 was our worst draft, followed by 2006, then 2010.


--------


It's even worse when you think of it this way:

Two of our best drafts were 2003 and 2004. We got a total of two (Or three) NHL players out of them combined: Parise and Zajac. (And PL3). Granted, we didn't have a lot of picks in the 2004 draft.

Even worse, those were the two highest rated drafts league-wide in those 16 years. 2006 was the third best, and it was our second worst.

It was a bad time for the empire.

-------

Pittsburgh was at 25th and still managed to be the 4th best in that time frame. Hawks were 20th and the 2nd best. Caps were 21st and the 3rd best. San Jose was 30th (!) and the 7th best.

It helps that most of those teams had a #1 overall or two, but you also need to get quality in later picks. (Letang, Carlson, Crawford, Keith, Guentzel, etc.)

We got outgunned pretty hard. No other way to sell it, really.

-------

Looking back fondly on the last 5-6 years (At least) of the Lou / Conte duo for this team, outside of the cup run, is some serious Baghdad Bob stuff.

Besides Lou and Conte getting old and having the game completely change after 05-06 with them not adapting enough, I'm also convinced that our cheap owner absolutely gutted the organization behind the scenes to save money. Buffalo notoriously did this before Pegula bought the team, where they changed to a mostly video based scouting system rather than sending scouts out to watch players/teams live. It didn't really leak out under Lou as things never did, but I'd be shocked if it didn't happen.

 

[MartyOwns]

Found my old post. Here's the direct link: Devils 2018-19 team discussion (news and notes) - part XIX

tl;dr: Lou and Conte were bad at drafting after 2004. The second worst team over that time frame, even controlling for draft position.

Analyzing 16 years of NHL draft data to see which teams have...

A deep dive on draft results for the past 16 years. Key points:

-We had the 23rd ranked average draft position over that time frame (Out of 30, so near the bottom).
-We had the 29th ranked average draft results over that time frame (Second to last; only better than Vancouver). So our drafting underperformed.
-Our best draft years in that timeframe, to the surprise of no one: 2003, 2004, 2016, 2017.
-2014 was our worst draft, followed by 2006, then 2010.


--------


It's even worse when you think of it this way:

Two of our best drafts were 2003 and 2004. We got a total of two (Or three) NHL players out of them combined: Parise and Zajac. (And PL3). Granted, we didn't have a lot of picks in the 2004 draft.

Even worse, those were the two highest rated drafts league-wide in those 16 years. 2006 was the third best, and it was our second worst.

It was a bad time for the empire.

-------

Pittsburgh was at 25th and still managed to be the 4th best in that time frame. Hawks were 20th and the 2nd best. Caps were 21st and the 3rd best. San Jose was 30th (!) and the 7th best.

It helps that most of those teams had a #1 overall or two, but you also need to get quality in later picks. (Letang, Carlson, Crawford, Keith, Guentzel, etc.)

We got outgunned pretty hard. No other way to sell it, really.

-------

Looking back fondly on the last 5-6 years (At least) of the Lou / Conte duo for this team, outside of the cup run, is some serious Baghdad Bob stuff.

jesus f***ing christ, when you see it laid out like that...

 

[Nubmer6]

I was just curious... If we were to do the offer sheet and we gave up 4 firsts, and drafted 20th in each draft... what would it have looked liked a few years ago. I went back 4 years because it's harder to judge how good the players are after just a few years:

2016: Dennis Cholowski - Detroit
2015: Joel Eriksson Ek - Minnesota
2014: Nick Schmaltz - Chicago
2013: Anthony Mantha - Detroit

It's a lot of presumptions, and I'm countering my argument that I DON'T want to OS him, but I'd think most teams would trade those players for Marner and a 12.5M cap hit in an instant.

 

[Devs4L]

i know you were being sarcastic, but you accidentally hit the nail on the head. no argument that he did some great things 20 years ago, though

I'm not getting roped into this subject again, but it's funny this is the sentiment while Lou at near 80 continues to be called on to turn franchises around. I think some of you in your Lou-hate have convinced yourselves he's in a retirement home somewhere. The league has clearly proven to view Lou the same as HFDevs fans have, right?

Or guys like Shanahan are just idiots.

 

[Devs4L]

I was just curious... If we were to do the offer sheet and we gave up 4 firsts, and drafted 20th in each draft... what would it have looked liked a few years ago. I went back 4 years because it's harder to judge how good the players are after just a few years:

2016: Dennis Cholowski - Detroit
2015: Joel Eriksson Ek - Minnesota
2014: Nick Schmaltz - Chicago
2013: Anthony Mantha - Detroit

It's a lot of presumptions, and I'm countering my argument that I DON'T want to OS him, but I'd think most teams would trade those players for Marner and a 12.5M cap hit in an instant.

All Lou.

 

[MartyOwns]

I'm not getting roped into this subject again, but it's funny this is the sentiment while Lou at near 80 continues to be called on to turn franchises around. I think some of you in your Lou-hate have convinced yourselves he's in a retirement home somewhere. The league has clearly proven to view Lou the same as HFDevs fans have, right?

Or guys like Shanahan are just idiots.

no lou-hate here, i love the guy. but truthfully, he made a fantastic coaching hire in new york, and he walked into a dream scenario in toronto (where he still managed some truly baffling moves). that’s it.

i mean for god’s sake. do you prefer the players in our organization now, or the pile of shit lou left us with? shero took that pile of shit and sculpted the taj mahal with it, the difference is night and day.

 

[REM17]

Go get him Ray!

 

[Stephen Gionta]

Still want Gusev.....

 

[Emperoreddy]

I don't know we would ever recover giving up a few Quennevilles and Matteaus, god forbid a Tedenby or Josefson.

Whiffing on those picks is a big reason why we ended up where we did.

Not a solid argument to ship four 1sts out the door.

 

[Emperoreddy]

which is why i wouldn't put it past hall for wanting a smaller deal also.

Hall’s in a much different position, and his health hasn’t really been his friend.

 

[JrFischer54]

Yeah now that we have a team that can actually draft, we should be even more protective of our 1st round picks.

Ray's team isn't picking JQs and Tedenbys (Tedenbies?). Our drafting was ABYSMAL regardless of our draft position between Zajac in 2004 and Zacha in 2015. The Athletic did an article about it that I posted a few months back. We were awful in those last years of Conte.



Expected value, expected utility and multi-attribute utility theory

All those years you mention and yet we still competed for division title every year. So are they really that important?

 

[Triumph]

I'm not getting roped into this subject again, but it's funny this is the sentiment while Lou at near 80 continues to be called on to turn franchises around. I think some of you in your Lou-hate have convinced yourselves he's in a retirement home somewhere. The league has clearly proven to view Lou the same as HFDevs fans have, right?

Or guys like Shanahan are just idiots.

You must've missed where Lou's mistakes in Toronto just got sent away at the cost of a 1st round pick and taking on a bad defenseman for a year. I will grant he did a great job at ditching the Phaneuf contract - that's a good piece of business. The long-term deal he gave to Kadri - another outstanding bit of general managing. The Zaitsev and Marleau deals, not so much.

He's a legendary GM. His best days are well behind him.

 

[JrFischer54]

But that's saying you have 4 shots at a player that could be much better than the established, near 100 point, 22 year old.

And like I said, if you think there's even a 50/50 chance for that to happen in the 20-31 range of the draft, then we just differ. Like you said, some would say yes, others no.

Not for anything but for the leafs to “win” this exchange they would have to hit on 2 of those draft picks. Even if they draft another marner we still will have ours. Also keep in mind picking that late the kid isn’t touching the ice for 2-3 years. So much for that win now with jt and Matthews

 

[JrFischer54]

I don't know we would ever recover giving up a few Quennevilles and Matteaus, god forbid a Tedenby or Josefson.

Just shows that for every marner in a draft there are 3 or 4 of those bums. You really think you will find 2 marner quality players picking 18-31? Would love to see the odds on that

 

[Devs4L]

no lou-hate here, i love the guy. but truthfully, he made a fantastic coaching hire in new york, and he walked into a dream scenario in toronto (where he still managed some truly baffling moves). that’s it.

i mean for god’s sake. do you prefer the players in our organization now, or the pile of **** lou left us with? shero took that pile of **** and sculpted the taj mahal with it, the difference is night and day.

But this is not the point. At least, not mine. The point is that you and others make it like Quenneville, Matteau, Tedenby, and Josefson are the product of an incompetent GM that the game had passed by, and are far less likely to happen because the difference is we gained a competent GM, while going blind to the fact that the last few years of Shero's first round picks in Pittsburgh look like this...

Angelo Esposito (20th), Simon Despres (30th), Beau Bennett (20th), Joe Morrow (23rd), Derrick Pouliot (8th), Olli Matta (22nd)

Of course I prefer what we have now. But that came via high draft picks and an abundance of them, and lottery winS. The point here goes back to Marner and the 1st round picks. And that we will be far more likely to discover players in the later part of the 1st round because big bad Lou is gone is a faulty narrative. That's the point.

 

[JrFischer54]

I wonder if everyone will love giving up draft picks as much if Ty Smith kills it this year. Will it stop people picking out picks they don’t like to act like all mid-round first round picks are basically garbage?

I mean you make it sound so simple like damn why doesn’t every team just do that? of course if our draft pick turns out good it will look good and what if he flames out? It will look bad. Other news water is wet.

Btw you will have a lot of teams passing on a player that late in the first round? Are you confident another Smith will fall?