Devils 2018-19 team discussion (news and notes) - part IX

[Bleedred]

Yea as well as every other team in the league including ours who is paying big money on larger and larger analytics departments each and every year.

Let's just put this out there right now.

Arizona is a BAD example of analytics. Chayka is said to be this analytics guru, yet he continues to employ a lot of bad possession players, as well hiring and continuing to keep Rick Tocchet and John MacLean employed on his coaching staff.

The Coyotes have a -679 shot on goal differential (this is all situations, maybe it's better at even strength) over the last two seasons. If Chayka really cares about analytics, he's doing a piss poor job at demonstrating that he does care about them. Sounds like he's more talk than show.

That's a pathetic shot differential, especially last year when they were a -504 shot on goal differential while trailing as many games as they were.

 

[Jets012]

Let's just put this out there right now.

Arizona is a BAD example of analytics. Chayka is said to be this analytics guru, yet he continues to employ a lot of bad possession players, as well hiring and continuing to keep Rick Tocchet and John MacLean employed on his coaching staff.

The Coyotes have a -679 shot on goal differential (this is all situations, maybe it's better at even strength) over the last two seasons. If Chayka really cares about analytics, he's doing a piss poor job at demonstrating that he does care about them. Sounds like he's more talk than show.

That's a pathetic shot differential, especially last year when they were a -504 shot on goal differential while trailing as many games as they were.

Yea that's the thing. People love using Arizona as an example of analytics not working. But in reality, the analytics would say Arizona sucks. It's not like analytics are saying Chayka is doing a good job there.

The other team with one of the biggest analytic pools out there? The Lightning. Yet no one likes to mention that when trashing teams that follow an analytical view.

Obviously you should never just consider one thing, but to not consider any of them at all is asinine.

 

[Bleedred]

Apparently somebody has forgotten the Adam Larsson that was getting burned because of his skating and poor reads. He's gotten much better at it with experience. I'm not saying Butcher will improve that much, but I think he does relatively well for himself given his size and speed (although I would argue it's really more his slow first couple steps that are the problem) disadvantage.

Perhaps Larsson has gotten better at skating now, I haven't watched enough of him in Edmonton. It's probably still below average at best though. He's not fast either, which most big guys aren't fast to begin with.

 

[Richer's Ghost]

Larsson got beat so many times on the outside edge it was disgusting. He makes up for it on the stat sheet by pummeling guys that don't get the shot off or pass before trying to go through the corner and behind the net though. Doesn't mean he hasn't learned what parts of the ice to stay anchored to now and use his strengths rather than trying to be the all purpose defender he once did. He stays in the house and blocks, and hits once they're below the faceoff dots. Look at his stats on hits and blocks now compared to his days in NJ.

Good skater? no way. Defensive D-man to the core and as much as he drove me nuts back then, I'd love to have him now on this Charmin squad.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Fact is Smith is most likely making the team next season so someone on the current shit left side of the defense is going to need to sit or get off the team.

We know it won’t be Greene, so it’s either Mueller or Butcher.

That doesn’t even get into the fact that if we have any desire to be a serious playoff team next year, Ray needs to add another top 4 LD on top of Smith making the team.

Someone has to go, and since Smith is going to at worst fill Butcher’s current role, it might as well be him since he also actually has value, unlike Greene and Mueller.

 

[Richer's Ghost]

I can't wait to watch Smith. If he can be the engine on the blue line that might let Hall find space up front and get back to his MVP ways. Could the PP actually look good? *GASP*

 

[VoidCreature]

I love Smith and think he's got a good chance to be an all-star type defenseman, but let's not count our chickens before they hatch here.

Right now Butcher's our best PP defenseman, and his all-around game is growing. Maybe give him a couple more seasons to find his bearings in the NHL before we start deciding he'll never be more than a bottom-pair Dman?

 

[Emperoreddy]

I love Smith and think he's got a good chance to be an all-star type defenseman, but let's not count our chickens before they hatch here.

Right now Butcher's our best PP defenseman, and his all-around game is growing. Maybe give him a couple more seasons to find his bearings in the NHL before we start deciding he'll never be more than a bottom-pair Dman?

So who gets the boot on the left side when Smith shows up?

And are you comfortable rolling two spots on the left side with protected PP specialists next season?

The D needs a major shakeup as soon as next year and that means guys playing on the team right now have to go. Multiple guys, not just Lovejoy. We have way too many bottom pairing bodies.

You can’t sit and horde all those bottom pairing guys on the hope one of them blossoms, while also claiming you want to compete. There simply isn’t enough protected spots, or talent above them to actually protect them.

Butcher’s skill set is a luxury. It’s a great thing to have, but it’s the cart before the horse. Our D needs the basics first before we start looking for the shiny toys to finish it off.

 

[Bleedred]

Gun to my head, I probably choose Butcher over Mueller long term. I think the organization does too. Maybe not Shero, but Hynes seems to.

I’ll get back to you later this year with a definitive answer, but I lean towards Butcher.

 

[VoidCreature]

Gun to my head, I probably choose Butcher over Mueller long term. I think the organization does too. Maybe not Shero, but Hynes seems to.

I’ll get back to you later this year with a definitive answer, but I lean towards Butcher.

Is this really even a conversation?

When did Butcher get this underrated on here? The guy put up 44 points as a rookie. His shots per game are up, his minutes are up. He's improving.

So who gets the boot on the left side when Smith shows up?

And are you comfortable rolling two spots on the left side with protected PP specialists next season?

The D needs a major shakeup as soon as next year and that means guys playing on the team right now have to go. Multiple guys, not just Lovejoy. We have way too many bottom pairing bodies.

You can’t sit and horde all those bottom pairing guys on the hope one of them blossoms, while also claiming you want to compete. There simply isn’t enough protected spots, or talent above them to actually protect them.

Butcher’s skill set is a luxury. It’s a great thing to have, but it’s the cart before the horse. Our D needs the basics first before we start looking for the shiny toys to finish it off.

Maybe use one of them higher in the lineup? Hynes said himself he sees Smith competing for a top four spot next year.

Butcher's a good defenseman. You're making it sound like he's David Warsofsky or some other pile of nothing.

 

[Ripshot 43]

Gun to my head, I probably choose Butcher over Mueller long term. I think the organization does too. Maybe not Shero, but Hynes seems to.

I’ll get back to you later this year with a definitive answer, but I lean towards Butcher.

If we have a better skating/younger version of Butcher coming up next year and it’s him or Mueller leaving then I would prefer keeping the smooth skating bigger guy that plays a good defensive role. I still think Mueller can grow within the proper learning environment and he would absolutely crush it on a bottom pairing with a good defensive coach. With the Smith variable, I keep Mueller.

 

[Billdo]

I can't wait to watch Smith. If he can be the engine on the blue line that might let Hall find space up front and get back to his MVP ways. Could the PP actually look good? *GASP*

The power play was fine last year yet ppl found a way to whine and now look at it

 

[RSeen]

I love Smith and think he's got a good chance to be an all-star type defenseman, but let's not count our chickens before they hatch here.

Right now Butcher's our best PP defenseman, and his all-around game is growing. Maybe give him a couple more seasons to find his bearings in the NHL before we start deciding he'll never be more than a bottom-pair Dman?

I totally agree with this. If we are projecting Smith to be a top 4 Dman, why does he need to be in the NHL next season? Butcher is performing well on the bottom pair, leave him there if you have to and bring Smith up once he is ready to take a top 4 role, it doesn't have to be next season. I don't see any reason to not be patient with Butcher.

 

[Maine Fan]

Hall's agent must be salivating....

Yeah, great position to be in for an agent. Hall MVP. 2018-19 season if he finally does well, great for the agent. If Hall has a bad season compared to MVP season then blame the Devils for poor coaching & no support from other players so Hall tried to do too much.

It is a Win Win situation for his agent.

I wish him the best. Rare loyalty in sports, money talks but the Cup has influence. Marty Brodeur was a rare breed.

 

[Maine Fan]

Hynes also made mention of the Lightning being a cap team when asked about them when playing them the other day.

On one hand it makes you think if there is something of frustration from him on that topic which he has more knowledge of to the actual workings of Shero and what was really pursued, contrary to what is said to the public or it was just simply a regular comment and nothing further should be read into it. Either way, it was random even bringing it up without it being mentioned by the interviewee(s) and the rest of what he had to say was in regards to the Lightning's play had nothing to do with the cap.

If over more time, it shows that we are operating under an internal cap, we can throw all the money we want at Hall, but with him experiencing this first hand on top of going through losing in Edmonton, you can't disagree with his decision if he decides to play and sign elsewhere. Throwing money at a couple of guys and letting the rest of the lineup consist of cheaper average players and more hoping for diamond in the rough types to appear to help push the team further is something that has happened with plenty of teams across sports and seldom works. You hope this isn't the case once we have more time to evaluate what the deal is with the organization and ownership spending habits.

Winner

 

[Maine Fan]

Many fans say that they would trade some player if the return is high enough.

Consider: you can't trade garbage and expect to get a first class meal. You trade a $1 expect to get a $1 back. You're lucky if the trade situation of a $1 gets you $1.50 back.

My piont is you can't trade $1 and expect $5 back. So being willing to trade if the return is high enough, think realistically. Garbage in, Garbage out.

Exception you could trade Greene at the right time and get more back. A team is desperate for a defensemen with Cup experience.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

if you think bateman and butcher are in the same skater.. category than i do not know what to say ...

I never said that. But he is small and a bad skater. Butcher is slower but also better in other areas. Much much smarter player. The idea that he can’t handle “top 4 minutes” (which would just amount to a couple more minutes per game) is absurd.

 

[Nubmer6]

I totally agree with this. If we are projecting Smith to be a top 4 Dman, why does he need to be in the NHL next season? Butcher is performing well on the bottom pair, leave him there if you have to and bring Smith up once he is ready to take a top 4 role, it doesn't have to be next season. I don't see any reason to not be patient with Butcher.

Smith is either NHL or minors next year. He's not eligible for the AHL. I'd argue that sending him back to Spokane is counter-productive.

 

[SpeakingOfTheDevils]

Smith is either NHL or minors next year. He's not eligible for the AHL. I'd argue that sending him back to Spokane is counter-productive.

He has nothing more to learn or prove in Spokane.

 

[My3Sons]

With PHI in win now mode any chance they’d consider swapping a newbie like Gritty for Schneider? NJ can save on the cap and Gritty probably grows into a horrific demon that will inspire fear in all who see him. Just spitballing....

 

[RSeen]

Smith is either NHL or minors next year. He's not eligible for the AHL. I'd argue that sending him back to Spokane is counter-productive.

If his role is occupied by Butcher it might make sense. It is better to have players become over ripe in the OHL than come up too early.

 

[Nubmer6]

I'm perfectly fine playing Butcher on the right side after Lovejoy (presumably) leaves. It's what he did his entire college career, and frankly, I thought he was as good if not better there than on the left.

Also remember Smith plays on the right also, and I believe he's done so all through his junior career.

If he re-signs, I'd be fine keeping Yakovlev as a 7th and rotate him in.

 

[Csonked Out]

Fact is Smith is most likely making the team next season so someone on the current **** left side of the defense is going to need to sit or get off the team.

We know it won’t be Greene, so it’s either Mueller or Butcher.

That doesn’t even get into the fact that if we have any desire to be a serious playoff team next year, Ray needs to add another top 4 LD on top of Smith making the team.

Someone has to go, and since Smith is going to at worst fill Butcher’s current role, it might as well be him since he also actually has value, unlike Greene and Mueller.

Butcher Can Play the right side as well. No reason we can't have a right side of Severson- Vats- Butcher and a left of Greene- Mueller- Smith. Heck Greene could always retire too...I can only hope.

 

[JK3]

The third pairing is the least of our problems, it's like obsessing over fourth liners. Lovejoy had been fine, actually the one guy that does his job, Butcher hasn't been great on the PP but I think he'll come around, he's fine in his role. It's the rest of the dopes in the top 4 (who aren't really top pair guys) that I'm worried about.

 

[Bleedred]

Is this really even a conversation?

When did Butcher get this underrated on here? The guy put up 44 points as a rookie. His shots per game are up, his minutes are up. He's improving.

One of the problems with this fan base (and not just this fan base) is some think we need this, brawny, defensive defenseman. A big stay at home guy who can “Play defense”. AKA: stay trapped in their end and play defense. I consider Andy Greene (before he started declining) to be a good defensive defenseman. He hit over 30 points one time, but that was the definition of a good defensive defenseman. Guys like Girardi, Orpik, Justin Braun? All f***in trash pales. There was probably a point in their careers where they would have been fine #6 guys, but all are terrible.

I will say Adam Larsson and maybe even David Schlemko were also good defensive defensemen.

I think because of Scott Stevens, our fan base seems to prefer having one of these defensive types or two around. The reality is that not only was Scott Stevens one of the few players in the history of the game to be a game changer with his physicality, but he was also better offensively than any defenseman we have on this current roster, despite low point totals into his 30’s.