Devils 2017-18 team discussion (player news and notes) - Offseason part IX

[devilsblood]

He's 5th on his team in CA/60 -- Edit: He is 5th on his team CF% as well.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...=50&teamid=12&type=corsi&sort=A60&sortdir=ASC

And 5th on his team in on ice shots against.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...=50&teamid=12&type=shots&sort=A60&sortdir=ASC

5th on team at 50%. 4th is Klefbom 50.4, 3rd is Nurse at 51%.

The relative is pretty tight between those 3 as well.

But sure these #'s are a critique on Lars, but they are a bigger critique on the #'s you posted above. The jump in chances against is due to the style of team play.

 

[JimEIV]

5th on team at 50%. 4th is Klefbom 50.4, 3rd is Nurse at 51%.

The relative is pretty tight between those 3 as well.

But sure these #'s are a critique on Lars, but they are a bigger critique on the #'s you posted above. The jump in chances against is due to the style of team play.

Of course it is!!!

And it was the reason for his numbers the last year and half he was here..it tricked people into believing he was better than he was...No one ever noticed neither he or partner barely ever crossed center ice for nearly two years. No one seemed to noticed they generated nearly nothing while playing rope-a-dope... It was the celebration of treading water.

But the real point in it all is he's average on his own team...He is average on a team full of average defenders...Sorta makes him average, doesn't it?

 

[KingsHockey24]

Jonathan Quick's career stats:
0.916 SV%, 2.26 GAA, 44 shutouts


Cory Schneider's career stats:
0.922 SV%, 2.28 GAA, 23 shutouts

now keep in mind, Quick has played for generally much better teams than Schneider has. I don't know how one can make the claim that Quick is "much better" than Schneider.

As a Kings fan I can agree; I don't believe Quick is "much better" than Schneider. I have them both in my top 5 goalies. The thing with Quick is that he has proven he can win and carry a team to a Stanley Cup championship. We don't know how Schneider performs in high-stakes games.

 

[JimEIV]

As a Kings fan I can agree; I don't believe Quick is "much better" than Schneider. I have them both in my top 5 goalies. The thing with Quick is that he has proven he can win and carry a team to a Stanley Cup championship. We don't know how Schneider performs in high-stakes games.

I do. Cory consistently gives up bad goals at inopportune times...I have never seen Cory put together a stretch of games that I have seen Quick do.

The save percentage looks pretty but when you are constantly giving up that goal that lets a team back in the game or win a game the other 19 saves of 20 shots are really irrelevant in my opinion. Cory has rarely shown the ability to lock it down in tight games and Quick has made a living of it for the last several years.

How does a guy with such a high save % have so few wins and shutouts? Cause he gives up a bad goal a game. He did it when his SV% was .925 as well.

 

[Steelman]

Wait, you're actually serious about this? Quick had little to do with the 2014 cup win. In fact, along with Niemi in 2010 and Fleury in 2009, it was the most mediocre a cup winning starter has played in quite some time. That was one of the weaker goaltended cup wins.

Quick is just above average every year, playing behind a way better defense. You're way overrating him.

Rinne was good last year, it was one of his two good seasons out of five between 2012-2013 and 2016-2017. Look him up on hockey reference, I'm on my phone and can't link it. Rinne has been inconsistent from year to year since 2013.

Terrible terrible post...

Quick, Niemi and Fleury all played huge parts in their teams cups. Quick won 2 cups in 3 years and you're calling him overrated. That's a joke

 

[KingsHockey24]

I do. Cory consistently gives up bad goals at inopportune times...I have never seen Cory put together a stretch of games that I have seen Quick do.

The save percentage looks pretty but when you are constantly giving up that goal that lets a team back in the game or win a game the other 19 saves of 20 shots are really irrelevant in my opinion. Cory has rarely shown the ability to lock it down in tight games and Quick has made a living of it for the last several years.

How does a guy with such a high save % have so few wins and shutouts? Cause he gives up a bad goal a game. He did it when his SV% was .925 as well.

Sounds a lot like how Peter Budaj was with us.

 

[Bleedred]

Terrible terrible post...

Quick, Niemi and Fleury all played huge parts in their teams cups. Quick won 2 cups in 3 years and you're calling him overrated. That's a joke

First of all, I never called Quick overrated. I just said that poster was overrating him by making him out to be the best goalie in the league. I'd consider Quick a top 10 goalie even. The 2012 playoffs was one of the best a goalie has ever had. The 2014 playoffs were very below average by a cup winning goalie standards.

Niemi and Fleury didn't play huge parts in their team's cups. Gimme a break with this. Sounds like Pierre McGuire drivel. Fleury was great in the 08 playoffs but very mediocre in the 2009 playoffs. Niemi is widely regarded as the most pedestrian cup winning starter in quite some time.

Now saying they played huge parts in their teams cups, THAT right there is a terrible post.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

today we're championing Jon Merrill and hating on Cory Schneider

I love this place.

 

[Darkauron]

today we're championing Jon Merrill and hating on Cory Schneider

I love this place.

Summer is a scary time

 

[billingtons ghost]

I do. Cory consistently gives up bad goals at inopportune times...I have never seen Cory put together a stretch of games that I have seen Quick do.

The save percentage looks pretty but when you are constantly giving up that goal that lets a team back in the game or win a game the other 19 saves of 20 shots are really irrelevant in my opinion. Cory has rarely shown the ability to lock it down in tight games and Quick has made a living of it for the last several years.

How does a guy with such a high save % have so few wins and shutouts? Cause he gives up a bad goal a game. He did it when his SV% was .925 as well.

Because SV% is another one of those stats that people completely hang their head upon without knowing anything about. Until they have a way of rating the quality of chances, we're stuck with these imperfect metrics to try to compare goaltenders.

Cory is a very good goaltender, but his lack of rebound control pads his SV%. His inability to play the puck pads his shot totals. His inability to read and control the play makes simple shots more dangerous. His positioning is excellent, but Quick's ability to periscope out to cut off angles and still get back to close the backdoor is the best in the league.

The defense in front of him was terrible last year and I attribute his down year to that (and loss of confidence) more than anything else - but the bottom line remains:

Straight comparison of SV% for rating goaltenders is nonsense - it may be the best stat we've got - but like +/- it is terribly flawed.

 

[Billdo]

How does a guy with such a high save % have so few wins and shutouts? Cause he gives up a bad goal a game. He did it when his SV% was .925 as well.

123 less starts than Quick from 2009 to now. Quick has a winning percentage of 0.58 and Schneiders is 0.44. They've also played on drastically different teams for majority of the time.

 

[JimEIV]

Merrill was the Only Defender on this team that didn't see a significant jump in Shots Against this season from last....His Shots Against were virtually unchanged...Not only that, While his shot against stayed the same, his Shot For increased by 2 and half shots (2.49) from 23.81 to 26.3 per 60.

I honestly believe people missed the season Merrill had last season. From a defensive standpoint, he was one of, if not the best defenders, he was second only to Severson in CF% and he led the team in ShotsFor% barely eeking out Severson.

Merrill had a really good season that no one seemed to notice...And it was most certainly a mistake choosing to protect Moore over him.

2015-16 Shots Against per 60
GREENE, ANDY 25.33
MERRILL, JON 27.74
SEVERSON, DAMON 27.97
MOORE, JOHN 31.79


2016-17 SA60
MERRILL, JON 27.81
SEVERSON, DAMON 30.34
GREENE, ANDY 31.05
MOORE, JOHN 33.27

 

[JimEIV]

Because SV% is another one of those stats that people completely hang their head upon without knowing anything about. Until they have a way of rating the quality of chances, we're stuck with these imperfect metrics to try to compare goaltenders.

Cory is a very good goaltender, but his lack of rebound control pads his SV%. His inability to play the puck pads his shot totals. His inability to read and control the play makes simple shots more dangerous. His positioning is excellent, but Quick's ability to periscope out to cut off angles and still get back to close the backdoor is the best in the league.

The defense in front of him was terrible last year and I attribute his down year to that (and loss of confidence) more than anything else - but the bottom line remains:

Straight comparison of SV% for rating goaltenders is nonsense - it may be the best stat we've got - but like +/- it is terribly flawed.

That seems like a very good explanation. But goalies are weird so I don't think about it too much

 

[217 Forever]

I do. Cory consistently gives up bad goals at inopportune times...I have never seen Cory put together a stretch of games that I have seen Quick do.

The save percentage looks pretty but when you are constantly giving up that goal that lets a team back in the game or win a game the other 19 saves of 20 shots are really irrelevant in my opinion. Cory has rarely shown the ability to lock it down in tight games and Quick has made a living of it for the last several years.

How does a guy with such a high save % have so few wins and shutouts? Cause he gives up a bad goal a game. He did it when his SV% was .925 as well.

Best post ever on this site.

The vast majority of NHL goalies have the ability...what separates them is the timing of the saves and how you fare under pressure...

 

[AfroThunder396]

I do. Cory consistently gives up bad goals at inopportune times...I have never seen Cory put together a stretch of games that I have seen Quick do.

The save percentage looks pretty but when you are constantly giving up that goal that lets a team back in the game or win a game the other 19 saves of 20 shots are really irrelevant in my opinion. Cory has rarely shown the ability to lock it down in tight games and Quick has made a living of it for the last several years.

How does a guy with such a high save % have so few wins and shutouts? Cause he gives up a bad goal a game. He did it when his SV% was .925 as well.

Playing for the Devils from 2014-2017 helped. Our goal support has been consistently awful since 2011, with the exception of one year.

Only Buffalo (701) has scored less goals than us (735) since 2014.

That's a team GFA of 2.24. Scheider has a GAA of 2.32 during that span. Scoring less goals than you allow is a great way to lose games. Only three goalies during that time have a GAA lower than our GFA - Price, Quick, and Gibson. Schneider is 10th best out of 43 goalies with +100 GP.

 

[devilsblood]

Merrill was the Only Defender on this team that didn't see a significant jump in Shots Against this season from last....His Shots Against were virtually unchanged...Not only that, While his shot against stayed the same, his Shot For increased by 2 and half shots (2.49) from 23.81 to 26.3 per 60.

I honestly believe people missed the season Merrill had last season. From a defensive standpoint, he was one of, if not the best defenders, he was second only to Severson in CF% and he led the team in ShotsFor% barely eeking out Severson.

Merrill had a really good season that no one seemed to notice...And it was most certainly a mistake choosing to protect Moore over him.

2015-16 Shots Against per 60
GREENE, ANDY 25.33
MERRILL, JON 27.74
SEVERSON, DAMON 27.97
MOORE, JOHN 31.79


2016-17 SA60
MERRILL, JON 27.81
SEVERSON, DAMON 30.34
GREENE, ANDY 31.05
MOORE, JOHN 33.27

I also thought Merrill had a solid bounce back season. I would have liked to have kept him.

But I keep going back to Shero's purge of the oft injured. Cam, Bennett, JJ, and Merrill. These guys have been locks to miss a significant # of games over the last 4+ seasons. All are now gone.

 

[Triumph]

Because SV% is another one of those stats that people completely hang their head upon without knowing anything about. Until they have a way of rating the quality of chances, we're stuck with these imperfect metrics to try to compare goaltenders.

Cory is a very good goaltender, but his lack of rebound control pads his SV%. His inability to play the puck pads his shot totals. His inability to read and control the play makes simple shots more dangerous. His positioning is excellent, but Quick's ability to periscope out to cut off angles and still get back to close the backdoor is the best in the league.

The defense in front of him was terrible last year and I attribute his down year to that (and loss of confidence) more than anything else - but the bottom line remains:

Straight comparison of SV% for rating goaltenders is nonsense - it may be the best stat we've got - but like +/- it is terribly flawed.

This is total nonsense and it keeps getting repeated. Absolutely no goaltender is better on rebounds than they are on the first shot they face. A goalie cannot 'pad his SV%' by giving up rebounds.

SV% has its flaws - one of its bigger issues is the 3 on 3's effect on it, Cory got crushed at 3 on 3 and 4 on 3 last year - but repeating stuff about how rebounds pad SV% isn't going to take it down at all.

 

[devilsblood]

I know people will chime in with unsustainable, or even worse, luck.

But Lars had a gf% this season of 56.8%. And last year on a dreadful Devils team was somehow at 55.%.

The 15-16 Devils gf% when Larsson was not on the ice was 43%.

Edm's gf% when Lars was not on the ice this season was 51%.

Edit:

This is pretty interesting. Last year together Lars and Greene had gf% and cf% of 55% and 44% respectively. Lars without Greene was at 56.2% and 48.4%. Greene without Lars was at 43.8% and 41.7%.

 

[devilsblood]

This is total nonsense and it keeps getting repeated. Absolutely no goaltender is better on rebounds than they are on the first shot they face. A goalie cannot 'pad his SV%' by giving up rebounds.

SV% has its flaws - one of its bigger issues is the 3 on 3's effect on it, Cory got crushed at 3 on 3 and 4 on 3 last year - but repeating stuff about how rebounds pad SV% isn't going to take it down at all.

I lean that way too. But there is some credence to the idea that Cory allows more shots against then a goalie who excels at rebound control, as well as a goalie who can handle the puck.

So I agree with you, but I don't think it's as black and white as you make it seem.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Cory simultaneously cannot make a big save when the team needs it, but is also the sole reason why we weren't able to get a top 5 pick the last few years (before last season)...huh? Those two things cannot be true. He either helps us win games or he doesn't help us win games. The other narratives are only true in the minds of those that are spinning them.

 

[JimEIV]

I also thought Merrill had a solid bounce back season. I would have liked to have kept him.

But I keep going back to Shero's purge of the oft injured. Cam, Bennett, JJ, and Merrill. These guys have been locks to miss a significant # of games over the last 4+ seasons. All are now gone.

The injury issues are a fair argument but Moore is so bad that I am not sure that should be a consideration.

 

[Billdo]

I don't know, I think if Moore was paired with a solid defense first partner he wouldn't be that bad. By that bad I mean bottom pairing offensive zone start heavy puck mover.

 

[devilsblood]

The injury issues are a fair argument but Moore is so bad that I am not sure that should be a consideration.

You won't get an argument from me on this.

Only thought is maybe some still untapped offensive production potential with Moore? Or maybe he'll have value at the trade deadline?

That's what I'm thinking Shero is hoping for.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

Really like the look of these lines:

Hall - Zajac - Speers
Johansson - Hischier - Palmieri
Henrique - McLeod - Zacha
Wood - Boyle - Quenneville
Noesen, Blandisi

 

[devilsblood]

I don't know, I think if Moore was paired with a solid defense first partner he wouldn't be that bad. By that bad I mean bottom pairing offensive zone start heavy puck mover.

Not sure if that holds water.

Moore's most common d partner this season was sev's, his next most common d partner was Lovejoy.

His #'s are actually pretty good when with Sev's. In 309 mins, Over 51% cf. Over 61% gf.

177 mins with Lovejoy, a dreadful 39% cf, though they were 50% gf.

50 minutes with Santini 45.7% cf.

Edit: Last year too Moore was at his best with Sev's. Could simply be Sev's is our best RD and thus Moore's #'s will be their best when they are paired together. But I'm not seeing evidence that he is better with a defense first guy.