Devils 2017-18 team discussion (player news and notes) - Offseason part IX

[Emperoreddy]

It can't be admitted because the meme is we have the worst defense in history.

That can't be true if Severson and Santini were actual good players.

 

[Bleedred]

It can't be admitted because the meme is we have the worst defense in history.

That can't be true if Severson and Santini were actual good players.

What's really annoying is the meme that Larsson was the main reason we weren't as good last year as we were the year before with him. Then his new team makes the playoffs for the first time in over a decade and he's the savior.

Convincing me lack of Adam Larsson is the reason for the difference between last year and the year before is like trying to convince me that John Hynes coaching is the difference between a bottom 3 team and a bottom 5-10 team.

Try convincing me you were abducted by aliens, because I'll have an easier time believing it than that stuff.

 

[JimEIV]

The game really needs to morph into the day where "Safer" players are not automatically considered the better players. I wish this would change among fans, but mostly it needed to change among GM's and coaches like 10-15 years ago, if not longer.

This is why too many people believe Larsson is better than Severson and that Weber is better than Subban, and that Doughty is better than basically everybody.

Half of today's hockey watching populous probably would have thought Bobby Orr was a bad defensive player. I'm actually shocked that more people don't make Erik Karlsson out to be this defensive liability, since he's not one of these "Safe" guys.

There still is very much a need for both.

"Safe" Defensemen often make things "more" possible for the risk takers. Speaking in pure generalities of course but there is no doubt that there is a symmetry at play here...when is the last time you saw two offensive Defensemen paired together? Even on the occasions it does happen one always takes the safe(r) role.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

What's really annoying is the meme that Larsson was the main reason we weren't as good last year as we were the year before with him. Then his new team makes the playoffs for the first time in over a decade and he's the savior.

Convincing me lack of Adam Larsson is the reason for the difference between last year and the year before is like trying to convince me that John Hynes coaching is the difference between a bottom 3 team and a bottom 5-10 team.

Try convincing me you were abducted by aliens, because I'll have an easier time believing it than that stuff.

If Larsson was the difference between the Devils being a whole lot better than it turned out last season, then Edmonton should have won the Presidents Trophy and advanced to at least the Cup finals with him.

I know there's not much to talk about now, but those guys on NHL radio really know nothing about non-Canadian teams that don't regularly play on HNIC.

 

[devilsblood]

A lot of this board doesn't understand this concept. Don't even bother. It's a waste of time.

Does this concept also pertain to shatt's?

 

[Zippy316]

What's really annoying is the meme that Larsson was the main reason we weren't as good last year as we were the year before with him. Then his new team makes the playoffs for the first time in over a decade and he's the savior.

Convincing me lack of Adam Larsson is the reason for the difference between last year and the year before is like trying to convince me that John Hynes coaching is the difference between a bottom 3 team and a bottom 5-10 team.

Try convincing me you were abducted by aliens, because I'll have an easier time believing it than that stuff.

I could see that Larsson argument.

He had the ability to anchor the first pairing, slow the game down, and essentially play a low-event game against top opponents. It helped us stay in games we shouldn't have.

Last year, we lacked that and would get steamrolled by good teams because we'd be forced into a game we had no business playing. Larsson had an ability to slow the game -- almost dumb it down -- so we weren't completely outmatched.

 

[Bleedred]

I could see that Larsson argument.

He had the ability to anchor the first pairing, slow the game down, and essentially play a low-event game against top opponents. It helped us stay in games we shouldn't have.

Last year, we lacked that and would get steamrolled by good teams because we'd be forced into a game we had no business playing. Larsson had an ability to slow the game -- almost dumb it down -- so we weren't completely outmatched.

Larsson is the difference in 10 or 12 points in the standings? Come on now.

I've seen it being said that Crosby is only worth something like that 13 points. If Crosby is only worth 13 points then there's no way in hell Adam Larsson is worth 10 or 12 points.

I call BS. I believe that about as much as I believe in Marty (a goaltender) being the difference in scoring 0.6 goals more per game than when he's not in. I believe in those things even less than alien abductions. I hate to be turning into the nerdy advanced stats guy around here, but most metrics that matter will not let that argument hold water.

The biggest difference was the play in goal and even though the team was still worse defensively, Larsson isn't enough of an impact player to vastly change the team defense/defense that much.

Let's also not forget that Schlemko was better than everyone we had last year also, not named Severson and maybe Greene.

I can not see it being argued at all.

 

[MadDevil]

No Larsson definitely hurt the defense, but even with him instead of Hall I still don't think we'd have been any better. We maybe wouldn't have bled shots/goals so much, but our offense would have probably been even worse than it was. Plus Cory had a bad year. The defense certainly didn't help, but I don't think you can say with Larsson Cory wouldn't have had a bad year. But what's done is done. Hopefully moving forward Santini can help fill the same role Larsson did as that minute eating "safe" defenseman who can actually make a pass.

 

[Patrik26]

The game really needs to morph into the day where "Safer" players are not automatically considered the better players. I wish this would change among fans, but mostly it needed to change among GM's and coaches like 10-15 years ago, if not longer.

This is why too many people believe Larsson is better than Severson and that Weber is better than Subban, and that Doughty is better than basically everybody.

Half of today's hockey watching populous probably would have thought Bobby Orr was a bad defensive player. I'm actually shocked that more people don't make Erik Karlsson out to be this defensive liability, since he's not one of these "Safe" guys.

We could use his liability.

 

[AfroThunder396]

Santini was outstanding last season. Everything he was asked to do he was great at. I'm really looking forward to seeing what else he's capable of. Hopefully he gets an expanded role this year.

I'm so sick of talking about Adam Larsson.

 

[Zippy316]

Larsson is the difference in 10 or 12 points in the standings? Come on now.

I've seen it being said that Crosby is only worth something like that 13 points. If Crosby is only worth 13 points then there's no way in hell Adam Larsson is worth 10 or 12 points.

I call BS. I believe that about as much as I believe in Marty (a goaltender) being the difference in scoring 0.6 goals more per game than when he's not in. I believe in those things even less than alien abductions. I hate to be turning into the nerdy advanced stats guy around here, but most metrics that matter will not let that argument hold water.

The biggest difference was the play in goal and even though the team was still worse defensively, Larsson isn't enough of an impact player to vastly change the team defense/defense that much.

Let's also not forget that Schlemko was better than everyone we had last year also, not named Severson and maybe Greene.

I can not see it being argued at all.

Marty helped facilitate the offense with his puck-handling which likely contributes to the goal scoring. We would typically spend less time in our own zone when Brodeur played since his rebound control and puck skills were fantastic. Schneider's were and still are very poor. Plus, it didn't help that that team was so adjusted to playing with Brodeur and Schneider was a completely different goalie. It's like replacing Peyton Manning with Michael Vick; it's going to change everything.

I'm not sure Larsson alone was enough for 10-12 points in the standings. I do however, think he played a huge part in the style of play we had in the 2015-16 season and definitely played a big part in Schneider having a better year that year. He allowed us to play a low-event, boring game with how well he controlled the game and slowed it down when he was on the ice. That team didn't have the horses to go toe-to-toe with the better teams in the league.

Compare that to this year, we tried to fight fire with fire and we completely got burnt. No one on the team aside from Hall was able to change the tides of the game and Hall's way of doing it was turning the game into a track meet which exposed our defense and Schneider. Larsson's way of doing it was slowing down the tempo of the game which played into Schneider's strengths.

Not trying to compare the trade, just setting an example. There's definitely some truth in the Larsson argument is all I'm saying. I'd say we're better off without Larsson in the long term as it was clear the staff wanted to drift away from the style Larsson was playing.

 

[Spoiled Bratt]

Marty helped facilitate the offense with his puck-handling which likely contributes to the goal scoring. We would typically spend less time in our own zone when Brodeur played since his rebound control and puck skills were fantastic. Schneider's were and still are very poor. Plus, it didn't help that that team was so adjusted to playing with Brodeur and Schneider was a completely different goalie. It's like replacing Peyton Manning with Michael Vick; it's going to change everything.

I'm not sure Larsson alone was enough for 10-12 points in the standings. I do however, think he played a huge part in the style of play we had in the 2015-16 season and definitely played a big part in Schneider having a better year that year. He allowed us to play a low-event, boring game with how well he controlled the game and slowed it down when he was on the ice. That team didn't have the horses to go toe-to-toe with the better teams in the league.

Compare that to this year, we tried to fight fire with fire and we completely got burnt. No one on the team aside from Hall was able to change the tides of the game and Hall's way of doing it was turning the game into a track meet which exposed our defense and Schneider. Larsson's way of doing it was slowing down the tempo of the game which played into Schneider's strengths.

Not trying to compare the trade, just setting an example. There's definitely some truth in the Larsson argument is all I'm saying. I'd say we're better off without Larsson in the long term as it was clear the staff wanted to drift away from the style Larsson was playing.

Very solid post.

Having a above average blueline playing a "prevent" type system will help any goaltender inflate his personal stats and the contrary is also right. I don't care if Price replaces Schneider, his personal stats would've been just as bad or slightly better, nothing more.

 

[Bleedred]

There are other factors at play here.

Outside of losing Larsson and Schlemko, we took decent defensive forwards we had in 15-16 (Stempniak) and replaced him with guys like DSP. DSP is one of the worst defensive forwards in the league. Or at least he was, since he's probably no longer in the league full time anymore.

It probably took a DSP gaffe to cause a game winning goal against with 2 minutes left in regulation for Hynes to realize he was awful. I bet we would have seen him in another 20-25 games down the stretch if he wasn't mysteriously injured and out for the season after that very game.

 

[Bleedred]

Very solid post.

Having a above average blueline playing a "prevent" type system will help any goaltender inflate his personal stats and the contrary is also right. I don't care if Price replaces Schneider, his personal stats would've been just as bad or slightly better, nothing more.

Cory played behind a very awful defense in 14-15 and put up a .925 save percentage. Mark Fraser played 34 games that year. Peter Harrold played 43 games that year. Bryce Salvador played 15 very ugly games that year, and was a complete liability. Seth Helgeson even played a career high 22 games.

Isn't it possible Cory just had a poor season? If not even just unlucky? Marty had a few so-so years in the late 90's and early 2000's. Not gonna count those early 10's years as he was clearly old and declining by then. There's many examples of goalies having random poor seasons and bouncing back. Rinne has a poor year pretty much every other season these days.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Cory played behind a very awful defense in 14-15 and put up a .925 save percentage. Mark Fraser played 34 games that year. Peter Harrold played 43 games that year. Bryce Salvador played 15 very ugly games that year, and was a complete liability. Seth Helgeson even played a career high 22 games.

Isn't it possible Cory just had a poor season? If not even just unlucky? Marty had a few so-so years in the late 90's and early 2000's. Not gonna count those early 10's years as he was clearly old and declining by then. There's many examples of goalies having random poor seasons and bouncing back. Rinne has a poor year pretty much every other season these days.

Partly but the style of play bad poor defense from both Dman and forwards (something people keep leaving out for some reason) played a huge part.

Cory is a positional goalie, and he was being forced to try and cover too many angles due to large breakdowns in defense.

Previous years they played a much more buttoned up game so Cory was able to make his reads easier.

He will adjust and it will be easier when we are a better scoring and possession team.

Remember we were not giving up as many shots those years as we did last year.

 

[Bleedred]

Partly but the style of play bad poor defense from both Dman and forwards (something people keep leaving out for some reason) played a huge part.

Cory is a positional goalie, and he was being forced to try and cover too many angles due to large breakdowns in defense.

Previous years they played a much more buttoned up game so Cory was able to make his reads easier.

He will adjust and it will be easier when we are a better scoring and possession team.

Remember we were not giving up as many shots those years as we did last year.

I think we gave up 3 more shots or something last year than the year before. Maybe it was between 2-3.

I remember it seemed we gave up a bit more in 14-15 under Pete/Hydra staff than we did during the first Hynes year, but maybe not quite as much as last season.

I distinctly remember thinking that the 14-15 team was the worst team defense/puck possession team we had in over 20 years, at least at that time I remember thinking that. Obviously last year passes it.

 

[Bleedred]

Marty helped facilitate the offense with his puck-handling which likely contributes to the goal scoring. We would typically spend less time in our own zone when Brodeur played since his rebound control and puck skills were fantastic. Schneider's were and still are very poor. Plus, it didn't help that that team was so adjusted to playing with Brodeur and Schneider was a completely different goalie. It's like replacing Peyton Manning with Michael Vick; it's going to change everything.

I remember a while ago that someone collected a bunch of data and estimated that Brodeur's puck handling was worth approximately 0.20 more goals per game, or one more goal every five games. I think that's somewhat reasonable.

There's no way that it was worth 0.65 more goals per game or whatever the differential was between Marty and Cory that year. Even in other years that Marty's partner played a significant amount of games, like Clemmensen the year he was hurt and Terreri when they split time in 93-94 and even Hedberg in Marty's twilight years, I don't think there was a huge disparity in goals for with and without Marty in net during those seasons. There was even a season or two where we scored more goals with non-Marty goalies than we did with Marty, if I'm not mistaken.

0.65 goals per game is more than one more goal every two games, I don't even think most superstar forwards add that many more goals per game/per season, I don't see how a goalie does. Not even the greatest puck handling one ever.

 

[theoptimist]

You do know I'd rather Prout matchup with tougher competition than Santini, right?

You do know it was Santini's first year in the NHL, right?

You do know that minutes in the NHL are earned, right?

You do know that player development doesn't happen in a vacuum, right?

 

[Bleedred]

You do know I'd rather Prout matchup with tougher competition than Santini, right?

You do know it was Santini's first year in the NHL, right?

You do know that minutes in the NHL are earned, right?

You do know that player development doesn't happen in a vacuum, right?

''You do know I'd rather Prout matchup with tougher competition than Santini, right?'' - Why? What purpose does it serve? I understand not throwing Santini right in, but lesser competition than Prout? Come on man.

 

[born2run24]

Rinne doesn't play very good from year to year because he's not very good anymore. He's been inconsistent from year to since the last lockout.

Quick isn't that great. Aside from last year Cory has been better for most of their careers. Don't let his 2012 playoffs fool you.

Not sure if you are being sarcastic or not..

Cory hasnt seen the playoffs since 2012, Quick has been either the main reason ora big reason for 2 cup wins. Not sure how either can be compared to each other.

Quick is light years better and one of the few goalies in the league that could succeed behind our subpar defense.

In one statement you say Rinne was pretty good last regular season, and now you're saying he's inconsistent and not that good anymore. The bottom line is, he's as good as the guys in front of him. Plenty of goalies are like that right now. Bobrovsky couldn't keep a starters job behind an average Philly D and when he first got to Columbus. Now that their blue line has improved, he won a Vezina.

Thats not a coincidence.

 

[MadDevil]

Quick is not light years better. He had one ridiculous season and playoff run and has been living off that reputation since. He's certainly not a bad goalie by any means, but I don't think he's as high as some people would put him. He also looks better because he makes ridiculous saves with his athleticism, often because he's out of position to begin with. Once he loses some of that quickness (no pun intended) he's going to get exposed.

Short of prime Dominik Hasek I don't think any goalie would have succeeded with our defense (and it went beyond just the subpar defense corps).

 

[Desert Devil]

Not sure if you are being sarcastic or not..

Cory hasnt seen the playoffs since 2012, Quick has been either the main reason ora big reason for 2 cup wins. Not sure how either can be compared to each other.

Quick is light years better and one of the few goalies in the league that could succeed behind our subpar defense.

In one statement you say Rinne was pretty good last regular season, and now you're saying he's inconsistent and not that good anymore. The bottom line is, he's as good as the guys in front of him. Plenty of goalies are like that right now. Bobrovsky couldn't keep a starters job behind an average Philly D and when he first got to Columbus. Now that their blue line has improved, he won a Vezina.

Thats not a coincidence.

I feel like you are contradicting yourself. Quick's career save percentage is substantially lower than Schneider's. This is the first full year Schneider had a save percentage less than .920. Quick has only had two years above .920. Keep in mind that the majority of Cory's career has been behind subpar defense whereas Quick's has not. Cory's save percentage 5 v 5 is .928 compared to Quick's .925 as well.

There's no doubt that Quick was unbelievable in 2012 but his 2014 cup run wasn't anywhere near as impressive. In 2012 his save percentage was .946 which is absurd, but his 2014 run was just .911 which is not very impressive at all. Cory's playoff experience is obscenely low but their save percentages are actually pretty close with Cory with the edge by .001. Obviously you cannot really take Cory's playoffs numbers seriously because he's only played 10 games.

Defensive systems are more complex and more important than ever nowadays and I think the stats show that on average Cory has been consistently the better goalie. I think Quick's save percentage is much lower than Cory's on this team last year. Last year seemed to be more of a perfect storm with a crappy defense and a down year from Cory, though those two are not mutually exclusive of one another.

I think your Bobrovsky example vindicates Cory more than anything to be honest.

 

[kiwidevil]

Why is Larsson seen as some godly Dman now?

He has made plenty of blooper reels in his time, too.

Ppl act as if we gave up a Vlasic, were really we gave up an Alzner.

 

[born2run24]

I feel like you are contradicting yourself. Quick's career save percentage is substantially lower than Schneider's. This is the first full year Schneider had a save percentage less than .920. Quick has only had two years above .920. Keep in mind that the majority of Cory's career has been behind subpar defense whereas Quick's has not. Cory's save percentage 5 v 5 is .928 compared to Quick's .925 as well.

There's no doubt that Quick was unbelievable in 2012 but his 2014 cup run wasn't anywhere near as impressive. In 2012 his save percentage was .946 which is absurd, but his 2014 run was just .911 which is not very impressive at all. Cory's playoff experience is obscenely low but their save percentages are actually pretty close with Cory with the edge by .001. Obviously you cannot really take Cory's playoffs numbers seriously because he's only played 10 games.

Defensive systems are more complex and more important than ever nowadays and I think the stats show that on average Cory has been consistently the better goalie. I think Quick's save percentage is much lower than Cory's on this team last year. Last year seemed to be more of a perfect storm with a crappy defense and a down year from Cory, though those two are not mutually exclusive of one another.

I think your Bobrovsky example vindicates Cory more than anything to be honest.

Its not a contradiction to say that some goalies are elite and can succeed behind bad to average defenses, and other guys need their defesemen to step up to succeed. Its a pretty obvious statement.

And I get that different systems, etc. sometimes benefit some guys more than others.

Both goalies right now are 31 years old. So if you we're starting a team right now, would you want Quick or Cory? I would take Quick and not think twice. And I think 90 percent of people would do the same just based on track record. Maybe the fact that Cory is considered a "young" 31 due to games played, will help him out in the future, but thats to be determined.

But Im not bashing Cory, in fact I'm sticking up for his play due to our subpar defense last year. If we improve there this season, no doubt his stats will look better.

 

[JimEIV]

Larsson is an average middle pairing defender and certainly not a difference maker, at least not to the point where he changes the course of game...

The team this season made a concerted effort to get the defense involved in the offense and there was cost associated with that. There is no coincidence that every single defender increased their offense output from last year to this year...all while the team scored the exact same amount of goals...that was clearly a coaching decision.
.
And Cory sucked on top of that. The difference in the two teams in term of goals against was almost exactly the difference of a .908 vs a .925... not sure why it is being sugar coated, Cory was simply terrible.

To summarize: 1. Larsson is very average 2. Hynes is a very bad coach 3. Cory was terrible last season