Devils 2017-18 team discussion (player news and notes) - Offseason part IX

[Emperoreddy]

If we can be a league average team in goals and not get outshot 40-22 every other game, it could be an ok year. I hate watching trash games where we can't sustain play.

Well we will never be league average in goals with only 22 shots a night.

 

[Bleedred]

It has already been proven that Santini puts up top 4 stats.

This board is dreadful with how it underrates Severson.

Severson, Santini, and Zacha are the most underrated players on this team.

Severson is a #2 defenseman right now and the best on this team.

But too many people remember some turnover, which he makes many of them because he's one of the few players on the team that has the puck quite frequently.

Maybe we'd be better if we had a defense full of Colin White's and Seth Helgeson's and guys who do nothing but chase and can't skate and are always 4 steps behind and camped out, roasting marshmallows around a campfire in our defensive zone.

 

[born2run24]

Hoping for free agents is almost always a bad idea.

Honestly it isn't that big a deal. Let's see Severson and Santini continue to grow and see what we have in Mueller.

We will draft a top 4 or even top 2 Dman next offseason and between now and then Shero will most likely pull a trade off

This is true. And as it stands right now, I doubt Carlson even makes it to the open market next year . Caps lost a lot of defense this offseason, they might as well blow it up if they let him walk.

But at this point, Id say there's a better chance of us throwing a boatload of money at him than there is of being able to land Dahlin in the draft, but like you said there are decent consolation Dmen next year.

Im not as down on the defense as some, but our frontline guys other than Greene, would look a hell of a lot better with even a run of the mill #1 Dman on the first pairing. So even though he isnt a Karlsson or Hedman level, he's still a guy who is a #1 on a lot of teams.

And he does have some Jersey ties (for what thats worth).

 

[Edmonton East]

This board is delusional. Santini is not a top 4 dman in this league right now. "Oh but the stats!!!!!" Some of you really need to learn how to interpret data and realize the impact utilization has on these figures. Severson isn't a 2 either. On our terrible D corps, he wouldn't have averaged less TOI/gm than freakin Lovejoy if he was. He wouldn't have been constantly bounced off the top pairing if he was.

It's almost like you guys don't realize you can take several clear bottom pairing guys from around the league. Some of whom have bounced around to several NHL team or might not even be on a roster right now. And you can find some metrics where they will be classified as a top 4 dman.

Personally, I like Santini and think he can be a #4 guy in this league. He is not there yet. I also think Sevs can become a #2. He also isn't there yet.

 

[SpeakingOfTheDevils]

I don't have a problem with our right side, as long as Lovejoy is playing strictly a bottom-pairing/heavy PK role. Severson and Santini should be ahead of him.

The left side is much more suspect. Mueller is a huge question mark, though Shero and Castron's history of talent evaluation gives me some solace regarding Mueller's capability as a full-time NHLer. Mueller's uncertainty likely means Moore will play on the second pairing, which is meh. If Greene has another poor year, that makes our left side constructed entirely of mediocre defensemen. Not ideal.

Moving the puck in transition continues to be my biggest worry. I haven't read anything entirely convincing about Mueller to think he'll help in that capacity, so we're likely "status quo" in that department. Hopefully, our younger and faster forward group can help with this.

 

[MartyOwns]

who cares about next year? we're not going to tank- we're going to do as well as we can and the chips will fall where they may. you can say 'i wish we'd tank' and while i wouldn't agree, i get it...but that's not an option. of all the things to worry about, we should rule out the 'uncontrollables' like our draft position, which will depend on so many things (how we do, how other teams do, and literally chance in terms of whether we win the lotto).

 

[theoptimist]

Our defense is terrible. I can't believe Moore is still on the team.

Earlier in the year I thought Lovejoy actually carried the play when they were together - yes that stretch we went 9-3-3.

Moore is so bad that I think we need another LHD from free agency. I can't trust him on the ice.

 

[Triumph]

This board is delusional. Santini is not a top 4 dman in this league right now. "Oh but the stats!!!!!" Some of you really need to learn how to interpret data and realize the impact utilization has on these figures. Severson isn't a 2 either. On our terrible D corps, he wouldn't have averaged less TOI/gm than freakin Lovejoy if he was. He wouldn't have been constantly bounced off the top pairing if he was.

It's almost like you guys don't realize you can take several clear bottom pairing guys from around the league. Some of whom have bounced around to several NHL team or might not even be on a roster right now. And you can find some metrics where they will be classified as a top 4 dman.

Personally, I like Santini and think he can be a #4 guy in this league. He is not there yet. I also think Sevs can become a #2. He also isn't there yet.

Oh hooray, more argument from authority. By this metric you've created, John Hynes is literally the person who determines how good a defenseman is. Don't get me wrong, ice time can say a lot, but when you're parsing between who averaged 25 more seconds a game than someone else, you might be making a weak argument.

Severson is a top-pairing defenseman - what happened between him and Lovejoy vis a vis ice time isn't all that important when you consider the dilemma John Hynes had in the middle of the season. After Auvitu crashed and got sent down, the Devils only had one working defense pair. So Hynes split Greene and Severson and pretty much left them split for the rest of the year. Lovejoy got the benefit of playing with Greene, and Severson got Moore, who he yanked into near competence (albeit probably against weaker competition).

There's things Severson could improve at but he's a top pairing D surrounded by garbage. I don't think this is tallest midget syndrome or anything like that - he really is that good.

 

[SpeakingOfTheDevils]

Our defense is terrible. I can't believe Moore is still on the team.

Earlier in the year I thought Lovejoy actually carried the play when they were together - yes that stretch we went 9-3-3.

Moore is so bad that I think we need another LHD from free agency. I can't trust him on the ice.

The staff and management have made it abundantly clear that they like what Moore brings and are comfortable with him in a featured role.

While I don't necessarily agree, I do like to be realistic and resign myself to the fact that Moore will likely be on the second pair (unless Mueller shines).

Any LHD Shero obtains between now and Opening Night will either be a massive upgrade via trade (unrealistic) or a no-risk, non-binding PTO. I don't envision him handing a contract to a free agent committing a roster spot.

 

[Nocashstyle]

Severson is absolutely not a legitimate top paring Dman yet. He's not even as good as Larsson was his last season here.

 

[Edmonton East]

Severson is absolutely not a legitimate top paring Dman yet. He's not even as good as Larsson was his last season here.

Correct

 

[Spoiled Bratt]

Saying Severson is a legit top pairing dman just goes to show how weak our blueline has been over the years cause some are taking potential as a sure lock. Severson has the potential to be a top pairing guy but he's no where near that ATM.

Give him a couple of years and he can definitely be the guy we want him to be today.

 

[Oneiro]

In his last year here, Larsson scored jack **** (for a supposed top pairing guy) on a team that played much better hockey. He then went on to a top 10 offense in the league and still scored jack ****.

It's pretty even.

 

[Cheddabombs]

Severson may not be a legit top pairing guy right now but he's at the very least a legit 2nd pairing guy. Saying he's incredibly far off from the former is just under-selling Severson's ability.

 

[thethinglonger]

Really don't care too much, but way to market your most recent #1 pick, NHL

 

[Devils731]

Severson is absolutely not a legitimate top paring Dman yet. He's not even as good as Larsson was his last season here.

I think Severson helps your team more than Larsson does. I think they're both good but Severson tilts the ice more than Larsson.

If Severson played on a good team last year people would think he was a stud, even if he played exactly the same as he did on a poor Devils team.

 

[AfroThunder396]

So this is something my opinion has been evolving on.

I hesitate to rate a guy with a career high of 24 points over a guy who had 28 ASSISTS last season.

I love Larsson and was always the first one to defend him, but the guy had a very limited skill set, which he was very good at, but I can only rate defensemen who can't produce offense so highly. Which is fine, not everyone can score a ton of points. ME Vlasic is an outstanding defensemen who doesn't produce a lot of points. But at some point, we just have to acknowledge that Larsson is what he is at this point. The offense isn't going to suddenly blossom out of nowhere in his SEVENTH season. Whether it's DeBoer's fault, or Lou's, or Oates or Hynes or his own, that's a different discussion we can have.

I know one of the Devils fan memes for years has been "I prefer my defensemen to play defense", and sure you don't want 6 John Moores back there, but retrieval and transition are the most important part of a defenseman's job. Offense starts in the defensive zone. A big reason our offense is so bad is because we suck at transition. If you can't move the puck up ice or properly distribute it in the offensive zone then you're never going to be anything more than a niche player.

Severson certainly has his issues and I take strong objection to people who worship him as the second coming. His **** ups are usually huge and obvious ones, and he often makes his own life more difficult by taking really bad defensive positions. I'd also like to see his decision making happen a little quicker. But his skill set is exactly what we need right now.

At some point you just have to transition your cute spreadsheet numbers and nice optics into a tangible measurable asset to the team. Severson has started doing that whereas Larsson's contributions are largely anecdotal. He 'looks good' and is 'strong on the puck' and 'made a nice play'. Those are things that make Don Cherry excited, but Severson right now is actually producing points and sparking our meager offense. That needs to be factored in.

I think Larsson leaving an already weak defense hurt us a lot, and I think Larsson is a very good defenseman among the top in the league at performing his specific role. But I also think Severson right now is bringing more to the table right now than Larsson ever did.

 

[JrFischer54]

everyone commenting on the defense sucks this guy sucks that guy does. it all comes back to cory. if he doesn't rebound and have a good year then it doesn't matter what defense is in front of him. spend a top 10 pick on the guy and make him your #1 goalie then he has to pick up the short comings of the defense in front of him.

 

[SpeakingOfTheDevils]

I'll never understand the Larsson/Severson comparisons.

The only thing they have in common is handedness.

 

[SpeakingOfTheDevils]

everyone commenting on the defense sucks this guy sucks that guy does. it all comes back to cory. if he doesn't rebound and have a good year then it doesn't matter what defense is in front of him. spend a top 10 pick on the guy and make him your #1 goalie then he has to pick up the short comings of the defense in front of him.

It's very difficult to be lights out when your defensemen get pinned in their own end due to lack of foot speed, lack of general puck transition ability, lack of IQ... you name it. We have a little bit of everything going on back there.

I'm not excusing Cory's poor season, but this is a chicken-or-the-egg argument. There's no way to definitively conclude "it all comes back to Cory."

 

[born2run24]

everyone commenting on the defense sucks this guy sucks that guy does. it all comes back to cory. if he doesn't rebound and have a good year then it doesn't matter what defense is in front of him. spend a top 10 pick on the guy and make him your #1 goalie then he has to pick up the short comings of the defense in front of him.

No goalie is going to have much luck unless his defense plays atleast somewhat well in front of him.

For a lot of time last season, the Devils defense was flat out bad. And no goalie, not even the elite ones, are going to succeed when thats the case.

Pekka Rinne is a good example of that happening last season. His defense struggled to support him most of the season and his regular season numbers showed. When they finally woke up in the playoffs, Nashville was a completely different team. Now obviously we have nowhere near the talent on D that they do, but if guys improve and play just average on most nights, Cory is good enough to pick up the slack.

 

[Bleedred]

Severson is absolutely not a legitimate top paring Dman yet. He's not even as good as Larsson was his last season here.

Severson isn't as good as Larsson, you're right on that.

He's better.

 

[Bleedred]

Pekka Rinne is a good example of that happening last season. His defense struggled to support him most of the season and his regular season numbers showed. When they finally woke up in the playoffs, Nashville was a completely different team. Now obviously we have nowhere near the talent on D that they do, but if guys improve and play just average on most nights, Cory is good enough to pick up the slack.

Rinne played fine last regular season. It was the season before that when he wasn't any good and he also was just as poor in the playoffs that year.

 

[Brooklyndevil]

This board is delusional. Santini is not a top 4 dman in this league right now. "Oh but the stats!!!!!" Some of you really need to learn how to interpret data and realize the impact utilization has on these figures. Severson isn't a 2 either. On our terrible D corps, he wouldn't have averaged less TOI/gm than freakin Lovejoy if he was. He wouldn't have been constantly bounced off the top pairing if he was.

It's almost like you guys don't realize you can take several clear bottom pairing guys from around the league. Some of whom have bounced around to several NHL team or might not even be on a roster right now. And you can find some metrics where they will be classified as a top 4 dman.

Personally, I like Santini and think he can be a #4 guy in this league. He is not there yet. I also think Sevs can become a #2. He also isn't there yet.

You want to say the league, fine. However, he's definitely in our top four.

 

[Alex NJD]

Aethon posted this in the last team discussion thread (not sure if you can quote from a lock thread)
These are Seversons ranks among the 82 dmen in the league who had at least 1250 minutes of 5v5 ice time.

In TOI 5v5 he was 52nd in the league.

In Points 5v5 he was 41st in the league.

In first assist he was 34th in the league.

In Points per 60 he was 38th in the league.

In ShotsFor% he was 57th in the league.

ShotsFor per 60 59th in the league

Shots Against per 60 53rd in the league.

Corsi For% 36th in the league.

Corsi against. 19th* best in the league.

Corsi For 61st in the league.

He's top 62 in every stat so he's definitely a #2 dman. And a very good one at that