Confirmed Signing with Link: [DET] Danny DeKeyser (6 years, $5M AAV)

[bleedblue1223]

Yep, this is where the battle of Analytics vs Eye Test always reaches a stalemate. Analytics are fantastic when used in concert with context. When that doesn't happen, people point to the numbers and say "too much for DeKeyser". And on and on it goes...

Analytics are great, it's just when you use them to compare players, you need to eliminate as many variables as possible to reach meaningful conclusions. Sometimes those variables are not easy to control, and makes players not comparable. Like comparing an offensive defenseman to a shutdown defenseman.

 

[TT1]

You'd be amazed at some of the arguments that I've had with people on this site then.

Well Dekeyser and Stralman got about the same o-zone starts last season (~53% of Dekeyser and ~54% for Stralman) and Stralman crushed him in terms of possession stats. Don't think you can really compare both players, Stralman gets more o-zone starts because he plays with Hedman on their top pair.

That being said Dekeyser plays with Quincey.. so yea. But he also played alot with Zetterberg, Datsyuk and Abdelkader.

 

[caliamad]

NJ bought 3 UFA years with Larsson. DET bought 5 UFA years with Dekeyser.

People in this thread need to learn how contracts work with (what they think are) these awful comparables.

5 years ufa completely changed my perception of deal. He is probably worth 4-4.5, but ufa years cost you. It's actually a pretty excellent deal if you believe he is a top4 d which I do.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

wow 5 mill???? hmmm I better try to watch more Wings games cause I assumed he wasn't in the same category as the 5 mill per year guys

cant really comment if its good or bad due only cause im just sorta familiar with DD, but ill admit my initial reaction is shock

 

[Reddwit]

ITT: People who have no idea how good Dekeyser is.

Dekeyser is almost universally loved by Wings fans, but you guys keep going with your stat-watching and token viewings.

 

[2020 Cup Champions]

The responses in this thread are mind-boggling. OEL? Tanev? Detroit doesn't have an OEL, Stralman, or Tanev to pay. Do we have any indication that Demers was even willing to sign with Detroit?

Holland has made some bad signings, but DeKeyser is a middle pairing defenseman that got paid middle pairing defenseman money.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Well Dekeyser and Stralman got about the same d-zone starts last season (~53% of Dekeyser and ~54% Stralman for Stralman) and Stralman crushed him in terms of possession stats. Don't think you can really compare both players, Stralman gets more o-zone starts because he plays with Hedman on their top pair.

That being said Dekeyser plays with Quincey.. so yea. That being said he also played alot with Zetterberg, Datsyuk and Abdelkader.

What site are you using? I'm getting very different numbers for Stralman on zone starts.

FWIW, I do think Stralman is better, so you won't get an argument from me on a direct comparison of the 2 players. Why New York didn't find a way to keep him is one of their dumber decisions.

 

[Jeti]

This seems like too much for a mediocre second-pairing defenseman but there sure seems to be a shortage of those right now so I guess this is the going rate.

 

[njx9]

Except Stralman is a god possession wise and elite defensively while DeKesyser is terrible possession wise and not good defensively.

That's simply not true in any way, shape, or form. That said, I'd love to see you qualify that thought. Can't wait for the advanced stats...

wut, he scored 8 goals last season with next to no PP time. And had 30 points the year before.. And he's doing that while being increadibly consistent defensively, great positioning, great stick and a quite efficient first pass.

*shrug* I totally disagree. His box scores don't look bad, but his passing is generally adequate, not good, his shot is pedestrian, and I don't think he's as strong an ES asset as his numbers suggest. Again, I'm not upset we resigned him, nor do I think it was really overpayment, but I don't buy that he generates any real offense, except when you compare him to the rest of the crapshow we call a blueline (Green excepted).

 

[TT1]

What site are you using? I'm getting very different numbers for Stralman on zone starts.

FWIW, I do think Stralman is better, so you won't get an argument from me on a direct comparison of the 2 players. Why New York didn't find a way to keep him is one of their dumber decisions.

i said d-zone starts, meant to say o-zone starts

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67#

Dekeyser's most common linemates and their CORSI's: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1764&withagainst=true&season=2015-16&sit=5v5

 

[Plub]

OEL money right there.

 

[bleedblue1223]

i said d-zone starts, meant to say o-zone starts

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67#

Ah, that and it was 14-15, so that clears that up.

 

[oilerbear]

why would people think otherwise? dzone starts and quality of linemates has everything to do with possession stats.

thats why HERO charts are meaningless, it doesnt show you the entire picture.

All a D should do is give the d....... puck to forwards.
and
stay away from goal production.

Looking at forward/D production:

the more directly involved a dman is in offence
the less likely a goal will be scored.!

Hero charts look at offence.

EVGF:
largely forwards.

PPGF:
largely forwards.
Except for the few High PPG total D.

EVGA:
you want the best high scoring chance area shot suppression D.
and
the best HSCA save% goalies.

PKGA:
Again, you want HSC shot suppression.

you want D men top 40 in Expected EVGA and Expected PKGA.
Dmen top 40 in both by best EVGA rank
Larssson (1st comp)
Niskanen (1st comp)
A. Martinez (3rd comp)
Alzner (1st comp)
Manson (1st comp)
Polak (3rd comp)
Davidson (2nd comp)
O. Matta (1st comp)
Usually Doughty, Weber, Lovejoy are on the list.

 

[IAmBobo]

Way overpaid

 

[Pestilence]

In this thread people with 10 000 posts are comparing Reilly's contract to this.

All aside from the overpayment or not -argument, if something is unbelievable, that is.

 

[gretskidoo]

OEL money right there.

That's cute.

Detroit would easily throw 10+ mill at a UFA OEL though, so not quite.

 

[NoShowWilly]

not way overpaid. i guess with the 5 years of UFA it has raised his cost. A lot of these types were signed about a year ago and the going rate was 4-4.65m but they had 1-2 more RFA years.

 

[TheGroceryStick]

Mrazek is being signed with what money?

 

[Cyborg LeClair]

Probably would have been nice to get him for a little cheaper, but Dekeyser is an important and valuable piece moving forward for the Red Wings. Very steady player on the backend who i see improving over these 6 years.

 

[jkutswings]

He's a $4M player who got paid $5M because Detroit has a ton of garbage on defense, and the timing of the deal (both the climate and the UFA years) gave DDK all the leverage. And I say this as a Wings fan.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Right and this coming from a Ranger fan, Who's team grossly over paid for both Marc Staal and Dan Girardi.

Staal and Girardi's contracts are also bad so I'm not sure what you're getting at. If that was supposed to be a slight, it didn't work

 

[LeafGrief]

Didn't know he was worth that kind of money. Then again that's how I've felt about most of Detroit's signings recently.

 

[bobermay]

They screwed me and made me look like a fool on HF Boards. I am going to write a LETTER

That image clearly shows the contract expired in 2015.

 

[AgeOfBennett]

Man that TJ Brodie contract keeps looking better and better

 

[oilerbear]

NJ bought 3 UFA years with Larsson. DET bought 5 UFA years with Dekeyser.

People in this thread need to learn how contracts work with (what they think are) these awful comparables.

The guy who replaced
S. weber as the Best Def Dem
doughty
was replaced the last 2 years by
Larsson.

I understand buying UFA years.

Monahan who is one of 19 forwards with 53g and 120P last 2 years.
has 4 years of RFA years.
When you look at the 19 forwards rfa years come in at 5.25 - 5.5M
the ufa contracts are 8.25 to 10.5 M

so 4 years of RFA @ 5.25 to 5.5M - 21-22M
Any agent is going to ask for 8.5 to 9M per ufa year.
5yr for (21 + 8.5) to (22 +9); 5.9 to 6.2M cap hit
6 yr for (21 + 17) to (22 + 18); 6.33M to 6.66M cap hit
7yr for (21 + 25.5) to (22 +27); 6.65M to 7m
8yr for (21 + 34) to (22 + 36); 6.875M to 7.25m

As for deals.
Larsson the Def d last 2 years.
5yr @ 4.167m
That is a deal.
Preveting PPGA has equal value to generating PPGF.

Weber
and
doughty
get paid large parts of their salary for PP production.

Larsson does not get large sums of money for reducing PKGA well below league average.

That is why my #1 ufa dman target would have been K. Miller of Boston.
Upper 2nd comp
top 50 EVA/60
top 20 HSCA D
top 60 SA D
top 10 GA D
top 50 PKGA D

Boston got him for 4years @ 2.5M