Despite major challanges, Kyle Dubas has passed the tests

[Trapper]

Agreed but again I have no problems with Dubas making that trade. I just sometimes think Dubas makes trades for the sake of making trades or to help players out which is fine. But I guess be prepared for the backlash if it ends up burning you or you get less value back.

In order to make a trade you have to have an awareness of what the team needs.
If you believe everything is fine, you probably keep rearranging the deck chairs.

Like a solid idea is:
We need a 2C like Cirelli. Someone who can play a hard 2-way game and score at pivotal moments.

We need a solid D like Byram (example) to pair with Rielly moving forward.

We need a solid presence in net that can be here for the next x years.

Then what is more important? Having 4 forwards take up half the Cap, or all the things from the list above.

 

[Dekes For Days]

if there are common themes that players are doing yes you can attribute goals against to them, you can to a goalie why not position players.

You can attribute goals against to them, but relative to their impact on what they've allowed. The issue here is that they are the 3rd and 4th/5th biggest impacters to the roughly 75 expected goals that the skaters have allowed with them on the ice, and the 4th and 5th/6th biggest impacters to the 99 goals against, but some people are attempting to attribute the whole 99 goals against to them, contrary to what all of the data says, to downplay their overall impact and value on the team.

Tavares/Nylander xGF% this year was a full 2 points lower than the Leafs without them.

Why are you suddenly switching to just this year? Tavares/Nylander together over those 3 years you've been using the whole time has a higher xGF% than the Leafs without them. Also their xGF% this year wasn't even bad; we were just dominant throughout the lineup. You're relying so heavily on these with/without stats that can be so easily skewed by things like, for example, having one of the most dominant 1st lines in the league.

Individually they were the worst 2 forwards (>100mins TOI) in xGA/60 among Leafs forwards.

Nylander is actually tied with Blackwell (and you're switching to just this season again because otherwise this isn't true), but this is also not the abnormality you're attempting to paint it as. They're not Selke-caliber forwards like Matthews/Marner, and they're facing higher producing forwards than our bottom-six.

I think we can safely say Matthews on ice SV% is an outlier because his xGA/60 was 5th among Leafs forwards in xGA/60.

Then you should be able to similarly recognize that the Tavares-Nylander duo's on-ice SV% is an outlier because of the huge disparity between their xGA/60 and GA/60.

 

[andora]

You can attribute goals against to them, but relative to their impact on what they've allowed. The issue here is that they are the 3rd and 4th/5th biggest impacters to the roughly 75 expected goals that the skaters have allowed with them on the ice, and the 4th and 5th/6th biggest impacters to the 99 goals against, but some people are attempting to attribute the whole 99 goals against to them, contrary to what all of the data says, to downplay their overall impact and value on the team.

no, not the expected. for 18 million real dollars i would expect a better goals for/goals against ratio and try and find out what the hell is going on as to why it's so low.

splitting them is fine but now you have either a 7million dollar third line winger or a 11 million dollar third line center - which around here if anyone suggests a 3-5 million dollar support player they are detailed out of the building because of the waste of money it is.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You don’t think Dubas has adjusted his philosophy at all since being here?

He's adapted to changing situations, opportunities, and the league around him like you'd hope any GM would, but there's nothing to indicate that he's significantly adjusted his philosophy. The whole he-hated-tough-guys narrative is complete baloney. Marchment (who Dubas himself brought in) was traded because he was a mid-20s mediocre AHLer who was about to be lost to waivers or UFA, not because of his size or playstyle.

 

[Dekes For Days]

for 18 million real dollars i would expect a better goals for/goals against ratio and try and find out what the hell is going on as to why it's so low.

To evaluate the value and impact of the 18 million dollars, we should be looking at their actual impact. Not only looking at them in the sample together and then attributing other people's impact to them to make them look worse. It's very obvious what's primarily going on. Our goalies didn't play well.

splitting them is fine but now you have either a 7million dollar third line winger or a 11 million dollar third line center

Tavares-Nylander has worked before and it can work again, but if we are splitting them up, there's really no reason why Nylander can't go on the top line.

 

[Dreakmur]

He's adapted to changing situations, opportunities, and the league around him like you'd hope any GM would, but there's nothing to indicate that he's significantly adjusted his philosophy. The whole he-hated-tough-guys narrative is complete baloney.

The changing situation was that his philosophy was flawed.

 

[francis246]

The changing situation was that his philosophy was flawed.

Exactly, his philosophy wasn’t working. It hasn’t worked. He’s slowly been adapting and changing to become closer to the norm

 

[All Mod Cons]

No question about it, his initial vision is outdated and amended. Recall the Dubists used to mock grit and dirty areas, failure has evolved his thinking. A lot of us have been proven right, it’s just the insecure ones who can’t accept it. It really isn’t a debate anymore, just stragglers.

Absolutely. A number of posters were right all along. Dubas' original philosophy was silly and proved not to be the correct one.

He has 100% changed his outlook on the game, that is the good thing.
The bad thing is he's made so many blunders earlier on in his career and wasted so many years and assets on his initial philosophy.

Some of the mistakes he made were so crippling, that I don't believe he can correct them in the time he may have.

I'd wager he'll do better at his next gig.

 

[Nineteen67]

No question about it, his initial vision is outdated and amended. Recall the Dubists used to mock grit and dirty areas, failure has evolved his thinking. A lot of us have been proven right, it’s just the insecure ones who can’t accept it. It really isn’t a debate anymore, just stragglers.

Some of the core star have adopted the grit and are willing to go to the dirty areas, but a couple are still reluctant. Until they are willing to do what it takes, or find people to compensate, then they’ll never see success.

I realise you don’t need proof, but for those that do, look at the injury list of both SC Finalist

 

[Trapper]

Some of the core star have adopted the grit and are willing to go to the dirty areas, but a couple are still reluctant. Until they are willing to do what it takes, or find people to compensate, then they’ll never see success.

I realise you don’t need proof, but for those that do, look at the injury list of both SC Finalist

You very rarely win the Cup without being hurt to some degree.
If you aren’t hurt, you probably were out rounds ago.

 

[Americanadian]

Why are you suddenly switching to just this year?

I started with the 3 season sample because that's what you were quoting.

I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers, but over the past 3 seasons

Then you switched to quoting numbers from this past season so I follow suit.

the goalies put up 0.868 behind Matthews this year.

Anyways - it sounds like you're happy with their production. Personally I think it's poor value for their contracts.

 

[andora]

To evaluate the value and impact of the 18 million dollars, we should be looking at their actual impact. Not attributing other people's impact to them to make them look worse.

It's very obvious what's primarily going on. Our goalies didn't play well.

Tavares-Nylander has worked before and it can work again, but if we are splitting them up, there's really no reason why Nylander can't go on the top line.

So only the good stuff and not the bad stuff that they are a part of as well? Come on.. you cant have it both ways. They share equal responsibility for the bad stuff so if there is a commonality that can be improved upon you need to address it.

So.. goalie was the problem, honest question with the goalies available this offseason or potential trade targets do you see a clear upgrade that can come in and stabilize.

Is it also reasonable to expect a contending team to adapt and alter to play stronger to support average goaltending. We just watched a team win the title that had the ability to buckle down enough and play to support an average goalie with very sub average statline.

You identify any area you can that contributed to goals going in (not stats but actual on ice plays - this is where coaches actually come in) and you try and fix the areas that limit pucks getting to the net.

Leafs are reasonably not getting a star dependable brick wall goalie this offaeason .. the type that can win games in spite of breakdowns in front of him. So where do you focus - other areas that have to be top notch to support what you do that.

Back to video, back to why these goals are being created and .... hold the players necessary accountable to become better and play to eliminate those trends.

 

[DarkKnight]

You very rarely win the Cup without being hurt to some degree.
If you aren’t hurt, you probably were out rounds ago.

Toughest trophy in sport.

 

[Apotheosis]

IDC much but if he drafts Mateychuk I would be overjoyed. Having a future D core of Mateychuk, Liljegren and Niemela would be massive going forward on top of having Rielly signed long term.

 

[ShaneFalco]

You very rarely win the Cup without being hurt to some degree.
If you aren’t hurt, you probably were out rounds ago.

That's why it's funny when some say if they had beaten TB they would have won the Cup

 

[notdoneyet]

I really dont give a rats ass about tavares and nylander. They have proven time and again they dont work/compliment each other. FFS stop trying to justify their ineptitude by trying to blame some obscure stat like save percentage.

Tavares is declining
Nylander takes way too many games off.

One of these guys have to go for a reset of cap.

 

[Stephen]

I absolutely love how after their 6th straight first round exit I went on Twitter and the first thing I read from so called Leafs “fans” was that management firing Dubas and Keefe would be a colossal mistake. Just LOL

I think it would be a mistake to blow up the management team now. Not because they necessarily deserve job security but because a mandated house cleaning out of frustration can damage the franchise further by creating more chaos and panic moves. Ignoring history this regular season and playoffs is also not a fireable offense.

Plus the new management team would be starting with the same handcuffs as the current one at the salary cap level. So it doesn’t get you closer to a cup.

 

[LeafEgo]

I really dont give a rats ass about tavares and nylander. They have proven time and again they dont work/compliment each other. FFS stop trying to justify their ineptitude by trying to blame some obscure stat like save percentage.

Tavares is declining
Nylander takes way too many games off.

One of these guys have to go for a reset of cap.

If you move Nylander you have to pick up another top six winger that replaces a sufficient amount of his production, and you're only left with 2-3M to redistribute. Capwise it would be a step in the right direction, but far from a reset.

Unless maybe you got back an impact elc player but that could be tough to swing.

 

[andora]

If you move Nylander you have to pick up another top six winger that replaces a sufficient amount of his production, and you're only left with 2-3M to redistribute. Capwise it would be a step in the right direction, but far from a reset.

Unless maybe you got back an impact elc player but that could be tough to swing.

Yes agreed so it is what it is at this point

Types of players that can mold with tavares need to be looked at while nylander can either bump up with matthews marner or center his own line

Not a lot of money to address this but is what it is

 

[Trapper]

If you move Nylander you have to pick up another top six winger that replaces a sufficient amount of his production, and you're only left with 2-3M to redistribute. Capwise it would be a step in the right direction, but far from a reset.

Unless maybe you got back an impact elc player but that could be tough to swing.

You don’t necessarily have to pick up an established top 6 winger that is ready for today in the trade.
You could get a package (includes a younger player that can grow like a Suzuki or Tuch) and give that player a 5/6 year Kadri deal.

Then you are covered for the next Matthews contract and JT contract expiry. A smart trade and that player is growing into a 7/8 mil player making less.

 

[Leaf Fans]

There are some who do not like any sort of negativity

True and some that don't like any sort of positivity.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Not really. If we didn't trade him, we would have lost him before he broke out to either waivers or UFA anyway.

There was no philosophy modification. Marchment was literally brought in by Dubas, and he played on Dubas' AHL teams. Marchment just wasn't very good, and remained not very good for a year and a half after the trade. We need to move on.

If he was so crappy...why would FLA give us anything for him and why would someone claim him off of waivers? If you want to argue the fact that he was constantly injured...I can agree with that. But to say he was just flat out not good enough when he was only given 4 games and Slick Nick Abruzzesse was given 10 games doesn't add up.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Grimaldi is a UFA. He'd make a pretty good blue and white smurf.

He is talented. League minimum deal more likely to play for the Marlies.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

Here's an exercise:

List all Dubas' best and worst moves as a GM. Best trades, signings, draft picks, contracts, hiring, firing, etc.

Then maybe ask yourself if he passed all the tests.

 

[PromisedLand]

Losing a player like Kadri for a return that has amounted to practically nothing is infuriating. The own rentals I understood why we didn’t trade them. But this is another feather in Dubas’ cap along with giving up the 13th pick and Jarvis to the Canes.

Trades like those are how to gut your team of depth 1O1.

please... even EJ doesn't understand the 4D chess moves by the boy wonder please....