Despite major challanges, Kyle Dubas has passed the tests

[ACC1224]

How is this thread toxic exactly? We’re simply discussing the mismanagement of the team and expressing our frustration as fans like any fan base would.

You mean he hasn't "passed the tests", whatever that means?

 

[ShaneFalco]

How is this thread toxic exactly? We’re simply discussing the mismanagement of the team and expressing our frustration as fans like any fan base would.

There are some who do not like any sort of negativity

 

[ToneDog]

Its all coming to a potential head in the next couple of years as current contracts of the core 4 run out and there are no future prospects with limited picks being made.

Dubas thinking is no longer long term in the best interest of the Leafs, but rather short-term trying to save his job in the present at the expense of the future !

Case in point if you trade your 1st in 2021 and 4th in 2021 and 4th in 2022 (upcoming draft) for Nick Foligno that comes at a massive cost well beyond losing to Montreal in round #1.

When you trade your 2nd in 2022 (this draft) and 2nd in 2023 (next year) and 3rd in 2024 for 38 year old Mark Giordano, your paying in the present and 2 years into the future for the right to have a dman play at age 39 (this year) and 40 next year before retirement. Because you already lost in round #1 again this year, you could simply have signed Gio as a UFA without mortgaging that much future of 3 top picks.

Just look at his upcoming draft for the Leafs in 2022 .. Leafs don't have a 2nd this year because of Giordano, they also traded their 3rd this draft for goalie David Rittich, and 4th for Nick Foligno and their 5th for Ben Hutton and their 6th for Riley Nash... So 5 draft picks from this upcoming draft for the right to dress a 39 year old Dman, and 4 picks to still pay off the round #1 loss to Montreal in 2021.

So in 2 years Matthews and Nylander's contracts end at UFA status, 40 year old Giordano retires and the Leafs prospect pool from years of abuse to lose in round #1 will be bone dry and without playoff success Dubas will be gone.

So with Leafs goalie situation the worst its been in a decade with Campbell a UFA and Mrazek signing a disaster and Leafs likely looking for 2 new goaltenders in the present for next year, would it really surprise anyone if more draft picks current and future are heading out the door including perhaps Leafs 1st from this year to address it?

On February 19, 2022, Ritchie was traded to the Arizona Coyotes along with a third round pick in 2023 or a second round pick in 2025 in exchange for Ryan Dzingel and Ilya Lyubushkin.[41]

What a trainwreck.

There are some who do not like any sort of negativity

Record setting 115 point season baby. The banner is going up in October and the parade is next week.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Toxic thread.

Enjoy your summer!

See you when something good happens -- like the Liljegren signing -- or in the fall!

Holy crap, is it ever! You'd think some people would have calmed down by now, geez Louise.

 

[Osmows OReilly]

There are some who do not like any sort of negativity

If “negativity” is pointing out obvious holes with the roster construction and team culture then boy oh boy

 

[francis246]

Why 'should' he have been given an opportunity? We aren't a rebuilding team. We don't have time and opportunities for subpar prospects to be gifted opportunities that they haven't earned, and even his first opportunity was one that Keefe decided to reward him with even though he was awful to the start the year in the AHL.

He sucked in his first NHL audition where he couldn't even handle garbage 4th line minutes, went back down, was wildly inconsistent but had a bit of a heater with 9 points in 5 games which earned him one more game. He looked crap in that game too, even when he was given more ice time, and the Leafs had seen enough. Traded soon after that call up for a prospect who was 2 years younger and looked significantly better than he did at any point.

He wasn't good enough, and we certainly didn't need what he was bringing to the table. Even his physicality and garbage-goal scoring, which is the only value he really brought to the table, was wildly inconsistent. The Leafs and Keefe invested in him heavily, gave him every chance to succeed, and he actually made it decently far. There were better prospects who were given far less than he was given.

I think it has more to do with he is exactly what we are looking for and we gave him up for something we have a surplus of. I would have been okay with trading Marchment if it was a similar type of player management thought had more upside. But it was for Malgin who was no better than Dimitro or Petan.

I just hope we don’t make the same mistake with Sandin. It feels like they are going to trade him. I hope if they do it’s for a need. Slightly bigger defenseman on the back end of a quality Center.

Seems like JT Miller for Sandin + is going to happen

 

[andora]

I think it has more to do with he is exactly what we are looking for and we gave him up for something we have a surplus of. I would have been okay with trading Marchment if it was a similar type of player management thought had more upside. But it was for Malgin who was no better than Dimitro or Petan.

I just hope we don’t make the same mistake with Sandin. It feels like they are going to trade him. I hope if they do it’s for a need. Slightly bigger defenseman on the back end of a quality Center.

Seems like JT Miller for Sandin + is going to happen

As a toronto fan sure

As a vancouver fan lilly would need to be involved i wouldnt budge. Vancouver has to nail the miller trade whether its 1 piece or 5 pieces..

 

[Dekes For Days]

How do the defensive numbers break down for tavares nylander and whomever when compared.
Do they give up higher danger chances resulting in more goals
More breakaways or odd man rushes or slot shots etc... cant hold on to the puck in the o zone like the others do?
What contributes to the goalie being worse when they are on the ice

They're not abnormal. That pairing has a xGA/60 of 2.65, but an actual GA/60 of 3.49. They're not allowing an abnormal amount of high danger chances or anything, and they control the expected goal share 55%+. Both have also gotten significantly better goaltending away from each other (0.916 and 0.906), and that pairing has also fluctuated considerably each year in the goaltending they've gotten. There doesn't seem to be anything that they do that makes their goalie be worse; sometimes that's just how the cookie crumbles. Kind of like how very good defensive center Matthews suddenly had an 0.868 SV% behind him this year - largely due to a bunch of floaters going in.

18M for +3 goal differential over 3 seasons isn't sound cap management IMO.

Theoretically no, but that 18m isn't the cause of the +3 being so low. Their impact is much more represented in the for part, and that hasn't been bad.

 

[Nineteen67]

It's just a constant shuffling of players on the cheap and some reclamation projects

Ritchie
Mrazek
Thornton
Simmonds
Vesey
Ho Sang
Malgin
Petan
Klimchuk
Carcone
Rosen
Riitich
Foligno
Harpur
Luckchuck
barrie
Clifford
Anderson
Galchenyuk
Nash
Hutton

I'm sure I'm forgetting some. Just keep the core and hope when you continue to bring in players, something will finally stick. Oh and don't worry about goaltending, we're stacked there

Those guys fill out roster spots on teams trying to win the lottery.

 

[francis246]

As a toronto fan sure

As a vancouver fan lilly would need to be involved i wouldnt budge. Vancouver has to nail the miller trade whether its 1 piece or 5 pieces..

Honestly I’d be okay with either moving

 

[andora]

They're not abnormal. That pairing has a xGA/60 of 2.65, but an actual GA/60 of 3.49. They're not allowing an abnormal amount of high danger chances or anything, and they control the expected goal share 55%+. Both have also gotten significantly better goaltending away from each other (0.916 and 0.906), and that pairing has also fluctuated considerably each year in the goaltending they've gotten. There doesn't seem to be anything that they do that makes their goalie be worse; sometimes that's just how the cookie crumbles. Kind of like how very good defensive center Matthews suddenly had an 0.868 SV% behind him this year - largely due to a bunch of floaters going in.

Theoretically no, but that 18m isn't the cause of the +3 being so low. Their impact is much more represented in the for part, and that hasn't been bad.

So if these numbers are worth anything (any fancy stat numbers) we are to listen to them and see where they are pointing us

So they appear to be more of a problem together than apart. This would also suggest that when they are together they arent hard enough to play against in their own zone. When apart they are supported more by other players defensively

So matthews save percentage is just the way the cooki crumbles or is there something there to idenify and address? Marner and bunting on the walls / too many shots allowed from the point / matthews down low. There is something there.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Honestly I’d be okay with either moving

If we're moving either, there better be a #1 goalie coming back our way.

 

[Nineteen67]

Its all coming to a potential head in the next couple of years as current contracts of the core 4 run out and there are no future prospects with limited picks being made.

Dubas thinking is no longer long term in the best interest of the Leafs, but rather short-term trying to save his job in the present at the expense of the future !

Case in point if you trade your 1st in 2021 and 4th in 2021 and 4th in 2022 (upcoming draft) for Nick Foligno that comes at a massive cost well beyond losing to Montreal in round #1.

When you trade your 2nd in 2022 (this draft) and 2nd in 2023 (next year) and 3rd in 2024 for 38 year old Mark Giordano, your paying in the present and 2 years into the future for the right to have a dman play at age 39 (this year) and 40 next year before retirement. Because you already lost in round #1 again this year, you could simply have signed Gio as a UFA without mortgaging that much future of 3 top picks.

Just look at his upcoming draft for the Leafs in 2022 .. Leafs don't have a 2nd this year because of Giordano, they also traded their 3rd this draft for goalie David Rittich, and 4th for Nick Foligno and their 5th for Ben Hutton and their 6th for Riley Nash... So 5 draft picks from this upcoming draft for the right to dress a 39 year old Dman, and 4 picks to still pay off the round #1 loss to Montreal in 2021.

So in 2 years Matthews and Nylander's contracts end at UFA status, 40 year old Giordano retires and the Leafs prospect pool from years of abuse to lose in round #1 will be bone dry and without playoff success Dubas will be gone.

So with Leafs goalie situation the worst its been in a decade with Campbell a UFA and Mrazek signing a disaster and Leafs likely looking for 2 new goaltenders in the present for next year, would it really surprise anyone if more draft picks current and future are heading out the door including perhaps Leafs 1st from this year to address it?

And how close are they to actually contending for a Cup? Im still not convinced that Nylander, and maybe even Tavares, can play in a SCF series, simply because they‘ve shown, to varying degrees, they’re not willing to sacrifice themselves enough.

There is a real possibility the window never opens.

Good question. We tried getting rid of our top 10 goaltender, but shockingly that didn't help.

Andersen can’t and now won’t play in the playoffs. If that’s the top 10 you’re referring to.

 

[All Mod Cons]

All management should have been fired

I laugh at all the posters giving dubas praise for what he has done.

He was gifted ma tthews marner and nylander. Signing Tavares wasn’t a great achievement, he wanted to sign with us.

He squandered our cap signing the same players he was gifted.

He should be fired for putting himself in a situation where your best player can become an unrestricted free agent after five years and to make it even more mind boggling giving him a no trade clause after the fourth year.

Look at our past. We make the playoffs with the great young forwards but our defense is shit. We fail in the playoffs. Make our defense better and then our forward depth suffers because we have to sign a bottom six all making 1 million dollars. We fail in the playoffs.

Look at our future. Again bottom six have to be signed at 1 million or less. That didn’t work before but hey let’s try it again. Our goaltending is in complete and utter disarray. We have to fix it but again with what money.

Look at next year not this year coming but the next. Matthews has to sign before that year or we stand a chance of losing him for nothing. What will willy want, he has proven to be greedy by actually sitting out games. He should have been traded for that but don’t get me started.
If bunting keeps improving how much is he going to cost.

Dubas is a terrible manager and should be fired, he is without a doubt one of the best evaluator of young talent in the league. Fire him as manager he is lousy, but give him a chance to succeed by using his strength of evaluation and give him the job of head scout.

Then maybe we can win a cup

What is the no trade clause, in the 4th year for? I think it's quite telling myself.

 

[Americanadian]

Theoretically no, but that 18m isn't the cause of the +3 being so low. Their impact is much more represented in the for part, and that hasn't been bad.

Are you suggesting they are free of blame for goals going in the Leafs net when they're on the ice? I outlined it in another post but the SV% for them on the ice vs. off the ice is a 0.03 difference or 30 goals/1000 shots over a 200+ game sample.

No one is saying they can't score. The simple fact is one should expect more than +3 goal differential over 3 seasons from 18M.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

I didn't think much of Marchment when we had him and still don't think much of him now but you nailed it by asking why we traded him for Malgin . We're tits deep in small players but he keeps adding more every chance he gets , it's truly remarkable how obsessed he is with undersized players .

I am starting to think its an obsession for him to find ONE small guy who makes it big...like DeBrincat or Caulfield. It seems he won't stop taking those chances until he finds one so he can pat himself on the back for finding an inefficiency in the market. There is no other explanation. I would not be surprised if he takes 5-10 154lb Firkus pretty high just for one more roll.

 

[Dekes For Days]

So if these numbers are worth anything (any fancy stat numbers) we are to listen to them and see where they are pointing us

Yes, we should. But we should not randomly make up reasons for these things happening. There is nothing to suggest that these players are doing something that is causing anywhere close to the SV% numbers we are seeing in those particular samples. Both get much better SV%s outside of that particular sample, and the goaltending they get together fluctuates wildly. They're not allowing abnormal shots or chances in quantity or quality. Literally everything points to the goalie. I think there's an argument for separating them, but it's not because of their on-ice GA. They weren't much of a "problem" together the year before when they were getting 0.929 SV% behind them.

So matthews save percentage is just the way the cooki crumbles or is there something there to idenify and address?

The way the cookie crumbles. We all spent months watching our goalies let in floaters in bunches, so I'm not sure why people are acting surprised, and acting like it's something bigger than it is despite absolutely no evidence of that.

 

[ACC1224]

Are you suggesting they are free of blame for goals going in the Leafs net when they're on the ice? I outlined it in another post but the SV% for them on the ice vs. off the ice is a 0.03 difference or 30 goals/1000 shots over a 200+ game sample.

No one is saying they can't score. The simple fact is one should expect more than +3 goal differential over 3 seasons from 18M.

Apparently we are to expect many things.....any year now.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Are you suggesting they are free of blame for goals going in the Leafs net when they're on the ice?

No, they are not "free of blame". They should get the appropriate blame, which is better represented in skater defensive metrics than contextless goals against.

I outlined it in another post but the SV% for them on the ice vs. off the ice is a 0.03 difference or 30 goals/1000 shots over a 200+ game sample.

They don't even have 1,000 shots against together over the past 3 years, I'm not sure where you're getting a 0.03 difference from, and top-6 forwards having a worse on-ice SV% than the rest of their team isn't that abnormal because they're going up against the higher quality shooters. Even more-so when the other top-6 line features two selke-caliber forwards. There is nothing they are doing that justifies attributing the 0.881 SV% to them.

No one is saying they can't score. The simple fact is one should expect more than +3 goal differential over 3 seasons from 18M.

The simple fact is that's a bad measure of the value you're getting out of that money. That's more representative of the value we're not getting out of our goaltending, not Tavares/Nylander.

 

[Nineteen67]

I am starting to think its an obsession for him to find ONE small guy who makes it big...like DeBrincat or Caulfield. It seems he won't stop taking those chances until he finds one so he can pat himself on the back for finding an inefficiency in the market. There is no other explanation. I would not be surprised if he takes 5-10 154lb Firkus pretty high just for one more roll.

There’s an even smaller D man in this draft that I bet he’s licking his chops to get. He may have to keep Mrazak so he can keep the pick.

 

[Trapper]

Shanny did say it was a 5yr plan that changes every day. This is what you get I guess.

For Shanahan, that was 8 years ago.

 

[All Mod Cons]

We gave Abruzzese 10 games or so. Did he do anything that screams NHL player to you? He didn't for me...but he still got the chance and it was more than 4 games. We have a lot of similar players to Abbruzzese and yet we gave him some serious rope. We needed a player like Mason and gave him a very brief look. This is what irks me.

Exactly. The same group who are LOL Leafs fans. Let's write a guy off after 4 games. This is why we can't have anything nice. Are the same guys who write players off after 4 games.

 

[Americanadian]

There is nothing to suggest that these players are doing something that is causing anywhere close to the SV% numbers we are seeing in those particular samples.

The xG/Shot while they're on the ice together over the last 3 seasons (large sample) is 14% higher than when they are not on the ice at all. I would say that is direct evidence of them doing something that causes the SV% to be lower when they are on the ice.

 

[Americanadian]

They don't even have 1,000 shots against together over the past 3 years, I'm not sure where you're getting a 0.03 difference from.

SV% when they are on the ice over the last 3 years: 0.881%
SV % when they are not on the ice over the last 3 years: 0.911%
0.911-0.881=0.03

The simple fact is that's a bad measure of the value you're getting out of that money. That's more representative of the value we're not getting out of our goaltending, not Tavares/Nylander.

The goalies have been fine as a whole when they are not on the ice. As outlined by the .911 SV% at ES over the last 3 years.

 

[Trapper]

You mean he hasn't "passed the tests", whatever that means?

Dubas must be a wizard.
How long have you had these players?
About 5 or 6 seasons.
They are for sale if you want them.
Let me see your playoff success.
You don’t need to see our success.
Move along.