Despite major challanges, Kyle Dubas has passed the tests

[Transplanted Caper]

Marchment had 11 points in 37 career games before this season. He put up 47 in 58 as a 26 year old this year. Good for him, but he was never getting the opportunity here, and someone involved in a minor leaguer for a minor leaguer swap suddenly doing that isn't a reflection of the GM who traded him, it's a unicorn.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

My main criticism is just they don’t have a strongly defined path of success for guys coming up. Like if you signed as a UFA prospect you’d have no idea how they’d promote you to regular duty. It’s just very knee jerk and impatient to unwrap Christmas presents, throw them in the bin kind of attitude.

Robertson in the bubble, Sandin on PP1 in 2021 playoffs, trying to sign Knies for a top 6 playoff role. It’s just all over the place. And things get lost in the shuffle.

Seems pretty defined: Look like you can play a role.

Maybe it is depth offense. Maybe it is shutdown. Maybe it is PK. Maybe it is PP.

Sandin was brought in for PP value (I guess). Robertson, initially, was to replace an injured Johnsson and fill that role. Knies to fill the 2LW role. Engvall and Moore found their roles as a PKer and shutdown guy. Holl was able to find a role as a PKer and shutdown guy. Mikheyev did the same, and eventually also got some PP time.

If we look at guys who are competing for jobs this year:

Robertson - PP, maybe PK, 2LW or bottom 6 depth offense.
Abruzzese - PP, maybe PK, 2LW or bottom 6 depth offense.
Holmberg - PK, maybe PP, bottom 6 depth offense or even shutdown.
Steeves - PP, maybe PK, 2LW or bottom 6 depth offense.
Anderson - PP, PK, 2LW, bottom 6 depth offense or shutdown.

If they look like they can fill one of those roles better than their competition, they will get the job. Pretty sure those are the expectations, and we are better than most at providing resources for those players to meet those expectations. Ultimately, it is up to the players to earn those jobs though, and it is highly unlikely that all 5 will make our lineup even if they all do well.

We are a competitive team. We don't have time for guys who can't contribute something, and show they can do it relatively fast. It is the same sort of thing we've done with NHL veterans like Vesey and Ritchie too. Maybe you develop and earn greater responsibility over time. Maybe you need to fill a different role than you did in the AHL or in juniors, as is the case for the vast majority of NHL players. Maybe you don't successfully crack the lineup full time on your first try.

These are betting odds.

Exactly?

 

[Havoc]

but he was never getting the opportunity here

Which is the stupid part. 4 games and tossed

Maybe the ending will see us re-sign Marchment, and Malgin has a breakout season for us as well.

 

[LeafEgo]

Marchment had 11 points in 37 career games before this season. He put up 47 in 58 as a 26 year old this year. Good for him, but he was never getting the opportunity here, and someone involved in a minor leaguer for a minor leaguer swap suddenly doing that isn't a reflection of the GM who traded him, it's a unicorn.

Sure it is.

March should have gotten an opportunity here. Personally was excited for that. And the GM traded exactly what we needed for exactly what we didn't need. Part of a pattern to boot.

Suppress the 'unicorn' numbers and it might be easier to see as a bad move, albeit not as big as some others.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Sure it is.

March should have gotten an opportunity here. Personally was excited for that. And the GM traded exactly what we needed for exactly what we didn't need. Part of a pattern to boot.

Suppress the 'unicorn' numbers and it might be easier to see as a bad move, albeit not as big as some others.

Why 'should' he have been given an opportunity? We aren't a rebuilding team. We don't have time and opportunities for subpar prospects to be gifted opportunities that they haven't earned, and even his first opportunity was one that Keefe decided to reward him with even though he was awful to the start the year in the AHL.

He sucked in his first NHL audition where he couldn't even handle garbage 4th line minutes, went back down, was wildly inconsistent but had a bit of a heater with 9 points in 5 games which earned him one more game. He looked crap in that game too, even when he was given more ice time, and the Leafs had seen enough. Traded soon after that call up for a prospect who was 2 years younger and looked significantly better than he did at any point.

He wasn't good enough, and we certainly didn't need what he was bringing to the table. Even his physicality and garbage-goal scoring, which is the only value he really brought to the table, was wildly inconsistent. The Leafs and Keefe invested in him heavily, gave him every chance to succeed, and he actually made it decently far. There were better prospects who were given far less than he was given.

 

[Dreakmur]

Why 'should' he have been given an opportunity? He wasn't good enough, and we certainly didn't need what he was bringing to the table even at the AHL level.

He’s the kind of guy we should have been using on the 4th line instead of Timashov or Petan or Galchenyuk or Vesey. I never expected a 20 goal scorer, but he was the kind of player we needed.

 

[LeafEgo]

Why 'should' he have been given an opportunity? He wasn't good enough, and we certainly didn't need what he was bringing to the table even at the AHL level.

Well with the benefit of hindsight he clearly should have been given an opportunity.

But that aside I guess we just would have disagreed at the time. I thought he was good enough to get a decent shot and had potential to break into the bottom six and add an element we needed.

I was perturbed when he got traded for Malgin because I thought it exemplified the fundamental errors in Dubas thinking perfectly.

Nothing to do with his eventual breakout season, although I suppose some folks are paid to get that sort of thing right.

 

[Racer88]

Where is this Malgin guy now and why is he never listed on our lists of prospects?

 

[Leaf Fans]

Where is this Malgin guy now and why is he never listed on our lists of prospects?

He played in Switzerland last season and has a 4 year deal there. His rights are still owned by the Leafs, but he is a free agent.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Oh good. We're back to talking about Marchment. I sure hope people are acknowledging the basic facts of the situation - that we gave him 4 years in the organization to earn a spot (which he didn't), and then we gave him NHL games that he didn't earn (that he wasn't good in), so instead of losing him to waivers, we traded him, and then 2 years later, after hitting UFA and signing a 800k contract, he had a wildly unsustainable breakout on the highest scoring team in the modern era.

 

[ShaneFalco]

The simple truth of it: The Leafs are paying four forwards a ton of money with the general idea of running two number-one lines that create matchup nightmares for opponents, but it simply hasn’t played out that way. Over the past three seasons, this is how Tavares and Nylander have fared together:

2019 - 2022	TOI	CF%	FF%	xG%	OZFO%	GF	GA
Nylander - Tavares	1702:22	55.2	55.39	55.13	60.87	103	110

They’ve generally controlled play as a line while not taking on the toughest matchups – and even shaded toward sheltered usage, especially with the David Kampf checking line now in the fold. They have been outscored over a three-year period (and in two of those three individual seasons).

That’s a long sample size to go on now. We can’t simply look at the other numbers and justify it – they aren’t paying two forwards nearly $18 million to play on the second line and be outscored. Conversely, Matthews and Marner have played nearly 2,200 minutes together at even strength in those same three years – against far better quality opposition – and outscored opponents by 65 goals in that same time.

If the Maple Leafs run back the core, what's the plan for the under-performing second line?

In Part 1 of our offseason game plan, we pondered some fundamental team-building questions facing the Maple Leafs this summer. As I outlined, everything starts with the decision about their number-one goaltender. They need to lock in a goalie of quality or, at the very least, a goalie with the...

mapleleafshotstove.com

 

[DarkKnight]

The only good thing about this thread title-besides the side splitting belly laughs-using the word tests, because these guys are learning and in school, whilst our window years slip away. I love the “Keefe is getting better” and “Kyle seems to have figured it out stuff”, like it’s some development league. What a farce when you think about it. We’ve already sacrificed the future, the cupboard is getting thin and we sit here with nothing but hope and next year…

 

[Dekes For Days]

We can’t simply look at the other numbers and justify it – they aren’t paying two forwards nearly $18 million to play on the second line and be outscored.

I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers, but over the past 3 seasons, Tavares-Nylander together at even strength in 1702:22 ice time is 102 for and 99 against, for a +3. So not outscored. And you're kind of leaving out the biggest reason that the differential is lower. Not a result of bad offense, or bad defense, but a result of a horrible 0.881 SV% behind them.

Tavares, in his time with the Leafs at even strength, is +34 while getting 0.896 goaltending, and Nylander in that same time frame is +11, while receiving 0.900 goaltending.

 

[Bigmarycombo]

All management should have been fired

I laugh at all the posters giving dubas praise for what he has done.

He was gifted ma tthews marner and nylander. Signing Tavares wasn’t a great achievement, he wanted to sign with us.

He squandered our cap signing the same players he was gifted.

He should be fired for putting himself in a situation where your best player can become an unrestricted free agent after five years and to make it even more mind boggling giving him a no trade clause after the fourth year.

Look at our past. We make the playoffs with the great young forwards but our defense is shit. We fail in the playoffs. Make our defense better and then our forward depth suffers because we have to sign a bottom six all making 1 million dollars. We fail in the playoffs.

Look at our future. Again bottom six have to be signed at 1 million or less. That didn’t work before but hey let’s try it again. Our goaltending is in complete and utter disarray. We have to fix it but again with what money.

Look at next year not this year coming but the next. Matthews has to sign before that year or we stand a chance of losing him for nothing. What will willy want, he has proven to be greedy by actually sitting out games. He should have been traded for that but don’t get me started.
If bunting keeps improving how much is he going to cost.

Dubas is a terrible manager and should be fired, he is without a doubt one of the best evaluator of young talent in the league. Fire him as manager he is lousy, but give him a chance to succeed by using his strength of evaluation and give him the job of head scout.

Then maybe we can win a cup

 

[ShaneFalco]

We’ve already sacrificed the future, the cupboard is getting thin and we sit here with nothing but hope and next year…

Sadly, I don't even have that.

 

[ACC1224]

The only good thing about this thread title-besides the side splitting belly laughs-using the word tests, because these guys are learning and in school, whilst our window years slip away. I love the “Keefe is getting better” and “Kyle seems to have figured it out stuff”, like it’s some development league. What a farce when you think about it. We’ve already sacrificed the future, the cupboard is getting thin and we sit here with nothing but hope and next year…

One day hopefully the 'expected' world and the real world will align and all will be well.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

Has he been fired yet?

 

[fahad203]

All management should have been fired

I laugh at all the posters giving dubas praise for what he has done.

He was gifted ma tthews marner and nylander. Signing Tavares wasn’t a great achievement, he wanted to sign with us.

He squandered our cap signing the same players he was gifted.

He should be fired for putting himself in a situation where your best player can become an unrestricted free agent after five years and to make it even more mind boggling giving him a no trade clause after the fourth year.

Look at our past. We make the playoffs with the great young forwards but our defense is shit. We fail in the playoffs. Make our defense better and then our forward depth suffers because we have to sign a bottom six all making 1 million dollars. We fail in the playoffs.

Look at our future. Again bottom six have to be signed at 1 million or less. That didn’t work before but hey let’s try it again. Our goaltending is in complete and utter disarray. We have to fix it but again with what money.

Look at next year not this year coming but the next. Matthews has to sign before that year or we stand a chance of losing him for nothing. What will willy want, he has proven to be greedy by actually sitting out games. He should have been traded for that but don’t get me started.
If bunting keeps improving how much is he going to cost.

Dubas is a terrible manager and should be fired, he is without a doubt one of the best evaluator of young talent in the league. Fire him as manager he is lousy, but give him a chance to succeed by using his strength of evaluation and give him the job of head scout.

In another words, he's JFJ 2.0

 

[ToneDog]

Has he been fired yet?

Nope but I think they may have taken the training wheels off.

In another words, he's JFJ 2.0

He probably will be remembered as Stellick 2.0.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

Nope but I think they may have taken the training wheels off.



He probably will be remembered as Stellick 2.0.

Imagine a place that gave you 4 years to learn on the job while you consistently underperformed every one of those years. I wish I could apply.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

I think everyone's commented on this trend before. If I were to hazard a guess I would say the team probably just doesn't prioritize completing the hit, prioritizing the flyby and back pressure more than completely taking a player out of the play to separate an opponent from the puck. You see a ton of stick plays, poke checks, stuff like that.

But this kind of hockey misses the whole point of physicality in the playoffs. The whole idea is to put mileage on the opposition and make them less fresh mentally and physically to play their best late in the series. The more wear and tear, the more degraded the opposition is to be able to play the game. The more wear and tear, the more physical fatigue and tendency to make mistakes under pressure.

You see them dial it up sometimes, but I don't think they consistently elevate to really make use of that play style. They're also not big enough in key positions to absorb that kind of abuse. The style of play and goaltending are big weaknesses in terms of Dubas and Keefe hockey.

I agree for the most part. I think they have a serious case of wishful thinking with the type of players they want when it comes to playoffs. They seem to hope the NHL will come out of the dark ages when it comes to playoffs and start calling the infractions. They did for the first 5 games of the series and it did not benefit us in the least with all of the PP's to TB. The problem seems to be philosophy more than anything and until they change it...we are going to be stuck.

I know some people might saw Colorado is the western version of us...but they do things on the physical side that we will never come close to. They were hit for hit with TB and wore them down. We are always out hit 2 or 3-1 in the later stages of series....it seems that getting worn down is what we do best.

 

[Mess]

The only good thing about this thread title-besides the side splitting belly laughs-using the word tests, because these guys are learning and in school, whilst our window years slip away. I love the “Keefe is getting better” and “Kyle seems to have figured it out stuff”, like it’s some development league. What a farce when you think about it. We’ve already sacrificed the future, the cupboard is getting thin and we sit here with nothing but hope and next year…

More people should connect those dots more because Leafs have been going All-in to win in the present at the expense of mortgaging away their future.

So when you empty your draft pick cupboard to try and win in the present, your future simultaneously takes a big hit when you lose in round #1.

Its like burning a candle at both ends at the same time.

With only 3 draft picks last year (2nd, 5th, 6th) and only 3 this year surviving (1st, 3rd, and 7th), no team makes less selections than Toronto does and will make.

So when Leafs are in another handshake line after another disappointing first round loss, the cost is much greater than just another regular season wasted, but your future pipeline is running dry also.

 

[Nineteen67]

All management should have been fired

I laugh at all the posters giving dubas praise for what he has done.

He was gifted ma tthews marner and nylander. Signing Tavares wasn’t a great achievement, he wanted to sign with us.

He squandered our cap signing the same players he was gifted.

He should be fired for putting himself in a situation where your best player can become an unrestricted free agent after five years and to make it even more mind boggling giving him a no trade clause after the fourth year.

Look at our past. We make the playoffs with the great young forwards but our defense is shit. We fail in the playoffs. Make our defense better and then our forward depth suffers because we have to sign a bottom six all making 1 million dollars. We fail in the playoffs.

Look at our future. Again bottom six have to be signed at 1 million or less. That didn’t work before but hey let’s try it again. Our goaltending is in complete and utter disarray. We have to fix it but again with what money.

Look at next year not this year coming but the next. Matthews has to sign before that year or we stand a chance of losing him for nothing. What will willy want, he has proven to be greedy by actually sitting out games. He should have been traded for that but don’t get me started.
If bunting keeps improving how much is he going to cost.

Dubas is a terrible manager and should be fired, he is without a doubt one of the best evaluator of young talent in the league. Fire him as manager he is lousy, but give him a chance to succeed by using his strength of evaluation and give him the job of head scout.

Then maybe we can win a cup

He’s one of the best evaluators of young talent?

 

[DarkKnight]

More people should connect those dots more because Leafs have been going All-in to win in the present at the expense of mortgaging away their future.

So when you empty your draft pick cupboard to try and win in the present, your future simultaneously takes a big hit when you lose in round #1.

Its like burning a candle at both ends at the same time.

With only 3 draft picks last year (2nd, 5th, 6th) and only 3 this year surviving (1st, 3rd, and 7th), no team makes less selections than Toronto does and will make.

So when Leafs are in another handshake line after another disappointing first round loss, the cost is much greater than just another regular season wasted, but your future pipeline is running dry also.

The Dubas model was supposed to be a cheap influx of young talent to offset the big contracts, now that the cupboard is drying up, we’re left to finding cheap vets to plug holes.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

My main criticism is just they don’t have a strongly defined path of success for guys coming up. Like if you signed as a UFA prospect you’d have no idea how they’d promote you to regular duty. It’s just very knee jerk and impatient to unwrap Christmas presents, throw them in the bin kind of attitude.

Robertson in the bubble, Sandin on PP1 in 2021 playoffs, trying to sign Knies for a top 6 playoff role. It’s just all over the place. And things get lost in the shuffle.

Shanny did say it was a 5yr plan that changes every day. This is what you get I guess.