Despite major challanges, Kyle Dubas has passed the tests

[Americanadian]

Marchment has never played a full season, and he missed time in the playoffs too, and I don’t expect him to ever exceed his numbers this year. I’ll be happy that Florida can’t pay him but I sure wouldn’t want to commit the 4+ mil his agent will seek.

Seth Jarvis, yeah that one hurts but remember that Dubas was fixing Lou’s f***up there. The smart thing to do would have been giving Marleau 2x9, or any amount of money that would have made him shirk the third year.

Marchment led all Panthers (presidents trophy winners) in WAR despite ONLY playing 2/3 of the season. He is absolutely worth 4M based on this season.

Lou gave Marleau a brutal contract. Dubas is the first and only GM to give up a 1st to dump cap. It's even worse when you consider it was 1 year of cap.

 

[ACC1224]

The Marleau Trade. That contract and the NTC left us with limited suitors.

Everything else cap wise like the contracts to the big 4 and everyone else on the roster is on Dubas. The Marleau one I don't fault Dubas for. That **** up I purely look at Lou.

If there was cap space they would have been in a better position to trade him. Gave them some options.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Some peoples lives are so miserable they have to constantly defend failure

I only say that because poster in question always says that about anything negative towards Dubes

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Marchment could have filled the 4th line role I penciled him in for during the 19-20 season.

Trevor Moore played on the 3rd line at the beginning of 19-20 while Hyman was out and he looked good. He got injured and came back and was relegated to the 4th line because of Johnsson. If they don't get Campbell/Clifford they save 2 3rd's and Moore. Campbell has been 46th in the league in GSAx/60 since he joined the Leafs. I think they could have found better goaltending.

Trading Kadri was very shortsighted given the contract situation. The Leafs won just as many round without him as they did with him. He was the only player who pushed back against Boston.

Jarvis was rumored to be Dubas' preferred pick on draft day 2020 and I personally liked the pick because he performed so well compared to his team. I can see the backlash though. Even Mercer/Schneider would have been slam dunks at that draft. Imagine 2 of Jarvis/Mercer/Schneider.

Marchment was a player we could've used but in his time here he did not look like an NHL player. He couldn't keep up. Then all of a sudden the next year at the age of 26, something just clicked. Then this year he had a season that no one couldve predicted. We have a chance to try and sign him this year and I hope it happens. I have a friend that is good buddies with him. He thinks he might come back home. Fingers crossed!

I loved Moore but expecting him to produce better than Kap or AJ would've likely been wishful thinking back then. I dont dismiss advance stats but I don't read too much into those when it comes to goaltending. Outside of about 6 or 7 goalies, I think Campbell falls into the next tier of about 10 goalies and not sure you can really say any were much better than him for the money we paid him. Especially since he was an all star and outside of a 20 game cold streak/injury, he played at an elite level.

Loved Jarvis as a draft pick and love him now as NHL player. Just find the irony really funny considering many of these posters don't follow prospects and bitch about all these small players Dubas drafts.

 

[Americanadian]

I have a friend that is good buddies with him. He thinks he might come back home. Fingers crossed!

I read your post. Agree to disagree. Despite our differing opinions I'm glad we had this discourse because this is the best thing I've read so far this off season.

 

[Stephen]

I don't get something and maybe you can give your insight. Is it just the type of players we have that they don't go all "Bull through a china shop" or is taught? I really wonder because it seems when guys with a reputation come here...they slowly start playing like the others and stop being aggressive. Look at Muzzin...I know he has had some injuries...but after a while he seemed to stop trucking people all together. Same with slap shots...Muzzin used to load up and blast them when he first got here...and now its sporadic. I can't quite figure out what is going on.

I think everyone's commented on this trend before. If I were to hazard a guess I would say the team probably just doesn't prioritize completing the hit, prioritizing the flyby and back pressure more than completely taking a player out of the play to separate an opponent from the puck. You see a ton of stick plays, poke checks, stuff like that.

But this kind of hockey misses the whole point of physicality in the playoffs. The whole idea is to put mileage on the opposition and make them less fresh mentally and physically to play their best late in the series. The more wear and tear, the more degraded the opposition is to be able to play the game. The more wear and tear, the more physical fatigue and tendency to make mistakes under pressure.

You see them dial it up sometimes, but I don't think they consistently elevate to really make use of that play style. They're also not big enough in key positions to absorb that kind of abuse. The style of play and goaltending are big weaknesses in terms of Dubas and Keefe hockey.

 

[Stephen]

Marchment was a player we could've used but in his time here he did not look like an NHL player. He couldn't keep up. Then all of a sudden the next year at the age of 26, something just clicked. Then this year he had a season that no one couldve predicted. We have a chance to try and sign him this year and I hope it happens. I have a friend that is good buddies with him. He thinks he might come back home. Fingers crossed!

I loved Moore but expecting him to produce better than Kap or AJ would've likely been wishful thinking back then. I dont dismiss advance stats but I don't read too much into those when it comes to goaltending. Outside of about 6 or 7 goalies, I think Campbell falls into the next tier of about 10 goalies and not sure you can really say any were much better than him for the money we paid him. Especially since he was an all star and outside of a 20 game cold streak/injury, he played at an elite level.

Loved Jarvis as a draft pick and love him now as NHL player. Just find the irony really funny considering many of these posters don't follow prospects and bitch about all these small players Dubas drafts.

Mason Marchment played 4 games with the Leafs. That actually worked out to just over 32 minutes of NHL play time. Not saying he was a massive priority in 2019-20 or much more than a darkhorse prospect, but that's simply not even a credible audition if you were truly trying to evaluate a player. Players slip through the cracks, but I'm not seeing evidence of a rigorous process.

Rinse and repeat Mikko Lehtonen and Alexander Barabanov. Not saying those guys were a big deal, but why are you bringing these guys in with zero chance to evaluate, let alone succeed?

 

[Menzinger]

Marchment led all Panthers (presidents trophy winners) in WAR despite ONLY playing 2/3 of the season. He is absolutely worth 4M based on this season.

His sh% is also 11% higher than it was the previous season. I'd say there's still a number of question marks about what he is/is properly worth

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

I read your post. Agree to disagree. Despite our differing opinions I'm glad we had this discourse because this is the best thing I've read so far this off season.

I just hope if Marchment signs here, it's not for an inflated contract since I doubt he ever repeats this kind of production. We could definitely use a power forward like him in our mix.

Always happy to have a healthy debate. The offseason is usually full of the same talking points and bad takes all the time and it's nauseating. Love it when posters can think critically and have good dialogue.

Respect.

 

[Stephen]

I just hope if Marchment signs here, it's not for an inflated contract since I doubt he ever repeats this kind of production. We could definitely use a power forward like him in our mix.

Always happy to have a healthy debate. The offseason is usually full of the same talking points and bad takes all the time and it's nauseating. Love it when posters can think critically and have good dialogue.

Respect.

In some ways I hope we don't reacquire him so we don't have a major fault line running through his success/failure round 2. Turn the page.

 

[andora]

Mason Marchment played 4 games with the Leafs. That actually worked out to just over 32 minutes of NHL play time. Not saying he was a massive priority in 2019-20 or much more than a darkhorse prospect, but that's simply not even a credible audition if you were truly trying to evaluate a player. Players slip through the cracks, but I'm not seeing evidence of a rigorous process.

Rinse and repeat Mikko Lehtonen and Alexander Barabanov. Not saying those guys were a big deal, but why are you bringing these guys in with zero chance to evaluate, let alone succeed?

Absolutely correct and now with the existing structure it will make that even harder. You do not have the luxury of having veterans to be able to insulate because everybody has to be so cheap and more often than not going to end up with mid-tier players that do not mentor or the cheap veterans that nobody else wants

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

If there was cap space they would have been in a better position to trade him. Gave them some options.

They might have been in a position to not need to trade him but it wouldn't have opened up more trading partners. Unless you're meaning something else?

 

[Americanadian]

His sh% is also 11% higher than it was the previous season. I'd say there's still a number of question marks about what he is/is properly worth

If he played to the same level he did this season for the next 4 then he’d be an 8M/year player. His blend of production, defense, size/hitting this year was somewhere between prime Benn and current Wilson. If he’s half that player he’s still worth having around. I could see him being similar to Killorn from 27-31.

Edit: after 20 minutes of deliberation the bolded feels a little extreme.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Mason Marchment played 4 games with the Leafs. That actually worked out to just over 32 minutes of NHL play time. Not saying he was a massive priority in 2019-20 or much more than a darkhorse prospect, but that's simply not even a credible audition if you were truly trying to evaluate a player. Players slip through the cracks, but I'm not seeing evidence of a rigorous process.

Rinse and repeat Mikko Lehtonen and Alexander Barabanov. Not saying those guys were a big deal, but why are you bringing these guys in with zero chance to evaluate, let alone succeed?

That's fair. It's a small sample size but What I mean is in those 4 games, his skating didn't look up to NHL speed and the only notable thing I remember him doing was he threw 1 hit behind the net in the one game. Other than that, he wasn't noticeable. He was 25 at that point. He was also a player that never quite reached a ppg in junior, never came close to being ppg in the AHL but somehow managed to put 47 pts in 54 games on one of the best teams in the NHL this year.

As for your other examples, they were free additions that were expected to be bottom of the lineup/depth. It was limited time but in their time here, they didn't exactly do anything to beat out anyone in the lineup and I guess we were looking to make contract spots?

 

[Nineteen67]

Dubas is poised to win another off-season championship

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Mason Marchment played 4 games with the Leafs. That actually worked out to just over 32 minutes of NHL play time. Not saying he was a massive priority in 2019-20 or much more than a darkhorse prospect, but that's simply not even a credible audition if you were truly trying to evaluate a player. Players slip through the cracks, but I'm not seeing evidence of a rigorous process.

Rinse and repeat Mikko Lehtonen and Alexander Barabanov. Not saying those guys were a big deal, but why are you bringing these guys in with zero chance to evaluate, let alone succeed?

They have to earn it too. Not everyone even gets an audition, and Marchment didn't exactly do anything to earn one more than he already received. Bracco didn't get any games despite being a PPG+ player in the AHL as a 22 year old. Korshkov only got one game and at least had a defensive game. Carcone didn't get any games and he actually looks semi-promising with Arizona right now. Brooks was given similar opportunities as Marchment at the time and looked significantly better in those opportunities.

Barabanov and Lehtonen were veterans who failed to win a job. We at least gave those two a chance to work out elsewhere. One somewhat did, the other did not.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Dubas is poised to win another off-season championship

Not that I really care about betting odds, but is there a reason why he should not want one of the best teams in the league? Fairly sure that is his job.

 

[andora]

Does the ahl have any site like capfriendly that you can track previous rosters contracts etc....

It would be interesting to see where we rank in turnover in players 26 or under

 

[Stephen]

That's fair. It's a small sample size but What I mean is in those 4 games, his skating didn't look up to NHL speed and the only notable thing I remember him doing was he threw 1 hit behind the net in the one game. Other than that, he wasn't noticeable. He was 25 at that point. He was also a player that never quite reached a ppg in junior, never came close to being ppg in the AHL but somehow managed to put 47 pts in 54 games on one of the best teams in the NHL this year.

As for your other examples, they were free additions that were expected to be bottom of the lineup/depth. It was limited time but in their time here, they didn't exactly do anything to beat out anyone in the lineup and I guess we were looking to make contract spots?

My main criticism is just they don’t have a strongly defined path of success for guys coming up. Like if you signed as a UFA prospect you’d have no idea how they’d promote you to regular duty. It’s just very knee jerk and impatient to unwrap Christmas presents, throw them in the bin kind of attitude.

Robertson in the bubble, Sandin on PP1 in 2021 playoffs, trying to sign Knies for a top 6 playoff role. It’s just all over the place. And things get lost in the shuffle.

 

[ACC1224]

They might have been in a position to not need to trade him but it wouldn't have opened up more trading partners. Unless you're meaning something else?

He may have been open to waiving and accepting a trade if he knew he’d be a nightly scratch or sent to the Marlies. More options is always a good thing.

 

[Stephen]

They have to earn it too. Not everyone even gets an audition, and Marchment didn't exactly do anything to earn one more than he already received. Bracco didn't get any games despite being a PPG+ player in the AHL as a 22 year old. Korshkov only got one game and at least had a defensive game. Carcone didn't get any games and he actually looks semi-promising with Arizona right now. Brooks was given similar opportunities as Marchment at the time and looked significantly better in those opportunities.

Barabanov and Lehtonen were veterans who failed to win a job. We at least gave those two a chance to work out elsewhere. One somewhat did, the other did not.

I totally agree they need to earn it. But in structured pathways where evaluation and promotion can happen hand in hand without the dramatic abandonment of the project or big regressions.

Marchment was a dark horse and these guys get lost in the mix. But overall I just see a very chaotic, let’s throw everything at the wall and see what sticks kind of prospect development.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Does the ahl have any site like capfriendly that you can track previous rosters contracts etc....

It would be interesting to see where we rank in turnover in players 26 or under

Just go to Eliteprospects and see the Marlies roster.

The only guy who looks like was dumped relatively early was Bracco, and that was for off-ice issues.

The rest either made it (either with us or were traded like Grundstrom), or were 25+ and passed over by better and younger prospects.

 

[Stephen]

He may have been open to waiving and accepting a trade if he knew he’d be a nightly scratch or sent to the Marlies. More options is always a good thing.

Leafs also cut Leivo loose when he was struggling to make a permanent spot for himself. I’m thinking they should say “nope, we’re going to keep you around as long as we need to.”

 

[Nineteen67]

Not that I really care about betting odds, but is there a reason why he should not want one of the best teams in the league? Fairly sure that is his job.

These are betting odds.

 

[PromisedLand]

Unfortunately I feel like he felt scalded after that and was a bit reluctant to load up this year which, given the closeness of the fail, was probably not the right choice.

I kind of think he will load up next season, not to save his job which is apparently for life, but to vindicate his vision. Admit it, if Campbell didn't suck balls, or a couple of the refs calls went the other way, its the Leafs who advance and with Girard caved in, Kadri MIA, and the Avs goalies looking sketchy they are right there. Okay that may only be the future in Kyles mind, but it was possible if Campbell hadn't wilted, that's not in doubt. KD will open the pantry and bring something for sure. No .890 tandem going into next seasons playoff.

The only problem is, if he doesn't put Willie in play then solving the goalie issue plus making the skaters better at the same time is tough. No quality UFA option is affordable with Willies $7M and the best Leaf assets all go to get the goalie. No cost controlled position players coming back, and they fill out the lineup with bargain bin talent. Its going to be an interesting next few weeks.

I am probably one of the biggest Dubas critic on this Leafs board. And I think Dubas did the right thing by not going all in this season. The high AAV players are paid those high AAV to deliver the goods.

Game 6 OT Marner makes a shit pass that gets intercepted, Holl the stupid PYLON does not do anything to stop Point from "passing the puck into the net".

High AAV Marner and pylon Holl forced in the line up by moron keefe. Attention to detail and little things matter.

Also on top of it all the cap issues are self inflicted by dubas himself IMO.

That Tavares contract will be seen as the contract that ruined the Leafs window IMO. That led to ridiculous overpays for marner/matthews, no cap left for quality depth, defense and goalie.

Also, in general, i don't trust dubas and his judgment. As far as I am concerned, Leafs are not going to see any progress until dubas is here. And I mean sustained progress. Not a one year or two year peak and then valley.

Hypothetically speaking, even if you were to get a goalie then what? in the playoffs you still need your high aav players to perform because there is no cap left for quality depth.