Despite major challanges, Kyle Dubas has passed the tests

[ShaneFalco]

Just eye roll worthy:

Maple Leafs staying the course after another playoff disappointment

The Maple Leafs don't appear eager to make changes in the wake of another playoff setback.

www.cp24.com

“Proud of the progress that was made,” Dubas said. “However, we weren't able to take the key step.”

“I saw a different team and a different approach,” Shanahan added. “In the past couple of seasons when we've had an opportunity to eliminate a team, we got back on our heels.

“One of the things that I liked about this year's process, despite the result, was that our team was on its toes.”

And while Shanahan was clear about his GM and coach, Dubas did leave the door open for change to the roster, although some of that will be necessitated by salary cap constraints.

“I do believe in the group,” said Dubas, whose team set franchise-highs for points (115) and wins (54) in 2021-22. “The easy thing to do would be to make bold statements or bold changes.

“But it's continuing to maintain that belief at this time that's vitally important

 

[Menzinger]

I think it has more to do with he is exactly what we are looking for and we gave him up for something we have a surplus of. I would have been okay with trading Marchment if it was a similar type of player management thought had more upside. But it was for Malgin who was no better than Dimitro or Petan.

I just hope we don’t make the same mistake with Sandin. It feels like they are going to trade him. I hope if they do it’s for a need. Slightly bigger defenseman on the back end of a quality Center.

Seems like JT Miller for Sandin + is going to happen

I suspect there's an awful lot of over-thinking when it comes reflecting on the Marchment trade. The guy may have wanted out/more of a chance to prove himself and the Leafs obliged a trade because they didn't see a spot at the time for him

And then Malgin ended up being the coming back because he had more games played at the NHL level and seemed like an safer bet. I doubt it was any sort of targeted move ect.

 

[ToneDog]

I am starting to think its an obsession for him to find ONE small guy who makes it big...like DeBrincat or Caulfield. It seems he won't stop taking those chances until he finds one so he can pat himself on the back for finding an inefficiency in the market. There is no other explanation. I would not be surprised if he takes 5-10 154lb Firkus pretty high just for one more roll.

Grimaldi is a UFA. He'd make a pretty good blue and white smurf.

 

[andora]

Yes, we should. But we should not randomly make up reasons for these things happening. There is nothing to suggest that these players are doing something that is causing anywhere close to the SV% numbers we are seeing in those particular samples. Both get much better SV%s outside of that particular sample, and the goaltending they get together fluctuates wildly. They're not allowing abnormal shots or chances in quantity or quality. Literally everything points to the goalie. I think there's an argument for separating them, but it's not because of their on-ice GA. They weren't much of a "problem" together the year before when they were getting 0.929 SV% behind them.

The way the cookie crumbles. We all spent months watching our goalies let in floaters in bunches, so I'm not sure why people are acting surprised, and acting like it's something bigger than it is despite absolutely no evidence of that.

Thats bullshit.. if they arent paying someone to watch video to figure out a common theme they are more f***ed than we thought

Even if you find a 50% common theme on the floaters it is worth attacking.. maybe saving 25% of that 50% from going in the net

I find it truly hard to believe one or two root causes cant be found

If it comes down to being looked at as a wash because this group of goals balance out this group of goals whats the point

 

[All Mod Cons]

The xG/Shot while they're on the ice together over the last 3 seasons (large sample) is 14% higher than when they are not on the ice at all. I would say that is direct evidence of them doing something that causes the SV% to be lower when they are on the ice.

99% of the time, advanced stats are the be all and end all. They tell the full picture us simple fans just cannot fathom.

1% of the time, it's just the way the cookie crumbles. Hahaha.

 

[All Mod Cons]

I suspect there's an awful lot of over-thinking when it comes reflecting on the Marchment trade. The guy may have wanted out/more of a chance to prove himself and the Leafs obliged a trade because they didn't see a spot at the time for him

And then Malgin ended up being the coming back because he had more games played at the NHL level and seemed like an safer bet. I doubt it was any sort of targeted move ect.

Agreed. Marchment probably wanted out and Dubas' hands were tied.

Poor f***er has his hands tied every move he makes.

 

[LeafEgo]

Andersen can’t and now won’t play in the playoffs. If that’s the top 10 you’re referring to.

Andersen played every playoff game for the Leafs through his first four years. He got injured before the playoffs this year and wasn't available. Same as Saros and Jarry.

His playoff woes were less than most of his top 10 counterparts over the years - MAF, Lehner, Markstrom, Kuemper, etc. He is 3rd overall in playoff sv% over the last 4 years (10+ games) behind only shesty and price.

He wasn't the problem, just easy to blame for a team with the same problems now that he's gone.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The xG/Shot while they're on the ice together over the last 3 seasons (large sample) is 14% higher than when they are not on the ice at all. I would say that is direct evidence of them doing something that causes the SV% to be lower when they are on the ice.

It's interesting how you're utilizing expected goal statistics and then outright ignoring them in making your conclusion. Tavares-Nylander does obviously allow more than a line with two Selke-caliber forwards and more than bottom-six lines facing lesser-quality producers, but that doesn't justify a 0.881 SV% or justify attributing the on-ice GA in this particular sample directly to them. There is a big disparity between their xGA and GA.

The goalies have been fine as a whole when they are not on the ice.

They've also been fine when on the ice separately. And sometimes when they're together. And sometimes the goalies aren't fine behind others, like when they put up 0.868 behind Matthews this year. There is nothing to indicate that the extra goals against are a result of Tavares or Nylander.

 

[francis246]

I suspect there's an awful lot of over-thinking when it comes reflecting on the Marchment trade. The guy may have wanted out/more of a chance to prove himself and the Leafs obliged a trade because they didn't see a spot at the time for him

And then Malgin ended up being the coming back because he had more games played at the NHL level and seemed like an safer bet. I doubt it was any sort of targeted move ect.

Agreed but again I have no problems with Dubas making that trade. I just sometimes think Dubas makes trades for the sake of making trades or to help players out which is fine. But I guess be prepared for the backlash if it ends up burning you or you get less value back.

 

[Zybalto]

Andersen played every playoff game for the Leafs through his first four years. He got injured before the playoffs this year and wasn't available. Same as Saros and Jarry.

His playoff woes were less than most of his top 10 counterparts over the years - MAF, Lehner, Markstrom, Kuemper, etc. He is 3rd overall in playoff sv% over the last 4 years behind only shesty and price.

He wasn't the problem, just easy to blame for a team with the same problems now that he's gone.

He was never the better goalie in a playoff series (in his whole career really), gave up soft goals in the most important moments and was behind a top 3 rated playoff defensive team in the 2 years under Keefe which is a large part of why his overall totals are so good.

Campbell was better this year than Andersen has ever been in a series IMO.....a series decided by a coin flip (one tossed by the refs).

 

[Dekes For Days]

Thats bullshit.. if they arent paying someone to watch video to figure out a common theme they are more f***ed than we thought

Of course they're analyzing everything to the fullest extent, and I'm sure there are things the coaching staff would like to see them do, but that doesn't justify arbitrarily attributing the goals against numbers to them specifically, when literally every indication is that the biggest culprit by far is the goalie.

 

[francis246]

Oh good. We're back to talking about Marchment. I sure hope people are acknowledging the basic facts of the situation - that we gave him 4 years in the organization to earn a spot (which he didn't), and then we gave him NHL games that he didn't earn (that he wasn't good in), so instead of losing him to waivers, we traded him, and then 2 years later, after hitting UFA and signing a 800k contract, he had a wildly unsustainable breakout on the highest scoring team in the modern era.

All of this is correct but it still doesn’t change the fact that this was a bad move in hindsight. I think it’s okay to acknowledge that Dubas may have made a mistake on Marchment. Additionally that move was prior to Dubas having a slight modification to his philosophy. So I don’t doubt that he felt at the time Marchment would never be a player that succeeds on a Dubas built team.

 

[All Mod Cons]

All of this is correct but it still doesn’t change the fact that this was a bad move in hindsight. I think it’s okay to acknowledge that Dubas may have made a mistake on Marchment. Additionally that move was prior to Dubas having a slight modification to his philosophy. So I don’t doubt that he felt at the time Marchment would never be a player that succeeds on a Dubas built team.

What do you believe the slight modification was?

 

[Nineteen67]

Andersen played every playoff game for the Leafs through his first four years. He got injured before the playoffs this year and wasn't available. Same as Saros and Jarry.

His playoff woes were less than most of his top 10 counterparts over the years - MAF, Lehner, Markstrom, Kuemper, etc. He is 3rd overall in playoff sv% over the last 4 years (10+ games) behind only shesty and price.

He wasn't the problem, just easy to blame for a team with the same problems now that he's gone.

Not the same as Sorros at all. The past two years management has been perplexed by Andersen, thinking he’s ready, only to pull the shoot. The Leafs didn’t even know if he was going to show up on the ice for practice, last year. I figure he has the yips because of poor playoff performances every year.

He certainly was part of the problem, look at the games 7 goals he’s allowed.

 

[Dreakmur]

All of this is correct but it still doesn’t change the fact that this was a bad move in hindsight. I think it’s okay to acknowledge that Dubas may have made a mistake on Marchment. Additionally that move was prior to Dubas having a slight modification to his philosophy. So I don’t doubt that he felt at the time Marchment would never be a player that succeeds on a Dubas built team.

How dare you accuse Dubas of adjusting his philosophy! He’s been perfect since he got here.

 

[francis246]

What do you believe the slight modification was?

To be honest I’m going based off his words haha. But look he has added a bit tougher players to the line up. Are they effective? That’s a different story. But I still think he hasn’t fully come around and I don’t think he ever will. It’ll be the hill he dies on. He’s trying to reinvent the wheel, it may of worked in Junior but I’m not sure it’ll work in the NHL.

 

[cannucky]

Test ? which test is that ? A vision chart maybe ? did the eye doctor tell him to take off the fake glasses , his eyes are fine it's his brain and ego that are the problem ?

 

[andora]

Of course they're analyzing everything to the fullest extent, and I'm sure there are things the coaching staff would like to see them do, but that doesn't justify arbitrarily attributing the goals against numbers to them specifically, when literally every indication is that the biggest culprit by far is the goalie.

if they are 100 random events with nothing in common sure, go with that.

if there are common themes that players are doing yes you can attribute goals against to them, you can to a goalie why not position players. every indication can point a lot of ways from numbers yes, but this isn't baseball and context is needed. context is a famous word around these parts, and without it in this case, an indication is kind of being represented as fact.

 

[Apex Predator]

To be honest I’m going based off his words haha. But look he has added a bit tougher players to the line up. Are they effective? That’s a different story. But I still think he hasn’t fully come around and I don’t think he ever will. It’ll be the hill he dies on. He’s trying to reinvent the wheel, it may of worked in Junior but I’m not sure it’ll work in the NHL.

I think he’s learning like you said. He brought in toughness even though it hasn’t worked out. I think he hasn’t figured out what the type of grit/toughness this team needs becuase he’s never built a team with that. Make sense the first few times he’s failed at addressing that. If he continues to adjust and learn he’ll hopefully get it right. Whether that’s with the Leafs or someone else time will tell.

 

[Americanadian]

It's interesting how you're utilizing expected goal statistics and then outright ignoring them in making your conclusion. Tavares-Nylander does obviously allow more than a line with two Selke-caliber forwards and more than bottom-six lines facing lesser-quality producers, but that doesn't justify a 0.881 SV% or justify attributing the on-ice GA in this particular sample directly to them. There is a big disparity between their xGA and GA.

They've also been fine when on the ice separately. And sometimes when they're together. And sometimes the goalies aren't fine behind others, like when they put up 0.868 behind Matthews this year. There is nothing to indicate that the extra goals against are a result of Tavares or Nylander.

Tavares/Nylander xGF% this year was a full 2 points lower than the Leafs without them. They are the 2nd and 4th highest paid forwards and they can't outperform the team average when they are together.

Individually they were the worst 2 forwards (>100mins TOI) in xGA/60 among Leafs forwards. Again - 2/4 in salary.

I think we can safely say Matthews on ice SV% is an outlier because his xGA/60 was 5th among Leafs forwards in xGA/60.

My conclusion is the Leafs are receiving insufficient value with these 2 forwards together. Driven by their poor defense.

 

[Dreakmur]

I think he’s learning like you said. He brought in toughness even though it hasn’t worked out. I think he hasn’t figured out what the type of grit/toughness this team needs becuase he’s never built a team with that. Make sense the first few times he’s failed at addressing that. If he continues to adjust and learn he’ll hopefully get it right. Whether that’s with the Leafs or someone else time will tell.

He absolutely is learning and evolving as a GM. He is getting better. Only the most insecure Dubas supporters can’t acknowledge that.

The Kampf signing was the first ‘need’ he absolutely nailed, so hopefully he keeps signing guys like that.

 

[Dekes For Days]

All of this is correct but it still doesn’t change the fact that this was a bad move in hindsight.

Not really. If we didn't trade him, we would have lost him before he broke out to either waivers or UFA anyway.

Additionally that move was prior to Dubas having a slight modification to his philosophy. So I don’t doubt that he felt at the time Marchment would never be a player that succeeds on a Dubas built team.

There was no philosophy modification. Marchment was literally brought in by Dubas, and he played on Dubas' AHL teams. Marchment just wasn't very good, and remained not very good for a year and a half after the trade. We need to move on.

 

[cannucky]

To be honest I’m going based off his words haha. But look he has added a bit tougher players to the line up. Are they effective? That’s a different story. But I still think he hasn’t fully come around and I don’t think he ever will. It’ll be the hill he dies on. He’s trying to reinvent the wheel, it may of worked in Junior but I’m not sure it’ll work in the NHL.

Agreed but as I've said here many times don't let the facts and reality of the situation interfere with the HF narrative , why would anybody look at the five teams that won the past seven cups and model their team after them ? Of course Dumbass {sp?} knows better what it takes to be successful than the folks that have actually been successful , why would he copy them ? It's crazy talk , crazy talk I tell ya . He drafts only fast undersize players then replaces them in the lineup with bigger , slower , aging out league minimum guys because ......?

 

[francis246]

I think he’s learning like you said. He brought in toughness even though it hasn’t worked out. I think he hasn’t figured out what the type of grit/toughness this team needs becuase he’s never built a team with that. Make sense the first few times he’s failed at addressing that. If he continues to adjust and learn he’ll hopefully get it right. Whether that’s with the Leafs or someone else time will tell.

Right we have to at least give him credit. I’m not convinced he’ll get it right with the leafs. But ultimately Dubas is attempting but he’s failed like you said. I think He’s an amazing Human but that isn’t enough as a GM. I think he’ll find the most success in his next stop wherever that is.

Not really. If we didn't trade him, we would have lost him before he broke out to either waivers or UFA anyway.

There was no philosophy modification. Marchment was literally brought in by Dubas, and he played on Dubas' AHL teams. Marchment just wasn't very good, and remained not very good for a year and a half after the trade. We need to move on.

You don’t think Dubas has adjusted his philosophy at all since being here? LOL he has definitely tried to in the last year or so.

 

[DarkKnight]

He absolutely is learning and evolving as a GM. He is getting better. Only the most insecure Dubas supporters can’t acknowledge that.

The Kampf signing was the first ‘need’ he absolutely nailed, so hopefully he keeps signing guys like that.

No question about it, his initial vision is outdated and amended. Recall the Dubists used to mock grit and dirty areas, failure has evolved his thinking. A lot of us have been proven right, it’s just the insecure ones who can’t accept it. It really isn’t a debate anymore, just stragglers.