Prospect Info: David Reinbacher

[Estimated_Prophet]

We'll see. I was watching Arpon Basu and MAGs podcast yesterday, they said numerous teams were trying to trade for the Habs pick to draft Reinbacher last year. People were comparing him to Noah Dobson last year before Dobson broke out this year. This kid is viewed as a big time asset around the league.

There is an important conflation that Arpon and many others are making. Just because there was interest in the 5th pick in no way means that Reinbacher was the target for these teams. Hughes mentioned that there were calls pre-draft about the 5th pick and there is no way to know who these teams were targeting as they certainly weren't going to tell Hughes. Even if there were calls during the draft there is every reason to believe that teams might have wanted to move up and grab Michkov. Of course the average person manages to tie Reinbacher into this but there is absolutely no evidence that anybody called Hughes asking for the 5th pick so that they could specifically select Reinbacher.

These are the same conflations that make social media so nauseating as most people are ill-equipped to discern the differences from empirical/documentary evidence and their own confirmation bias.

Can we speculate that teams might have been trying to select Reinbacher, of course.......but we need to stop myth building narratives such as this one as I am so tired of all of the mythological scenarios from years ago that now get passed around as gospel on these boards.

 

[TheBuriedHab]

There is an important conflation that Arpon and many others are making. Just because there was interest in the 5th pick in no way means that Reinbacher was the target for these teams. Hughes mentioned that there were calls pre-draft about the 5th pick and there is no way to know who these teams were targeting as they certainly weren't going to tell Hughes. Even if there were calls during the draft there is every reason to believe that teams might have wanted to move up and grab Michkov. Of course the average person manages to tie Reinbacher into this but there is absolutely no evidence that anybody called Hughes asking for the 5th pick so that they could specifically select Reinbacher.

These are the same conflations that make social media so nauseating as most people are ill-equipped to discern the differences from empirical/documentary evidence and their own confirmation bias.

Can we speculate that teams might have been trying to select Reinbacher, of course.......but we need to stop myth building narratives such as this one as I am so tired of all of the mythological scenarios from years ago that now get passed around as gospel on these boards.

No I believe they said their sources told them it was for Reinbacher, they weren't guessing. Also everyone knew Arizona was going to take Reinbacher at 6th so teams were trying to jump them.

Also teams will ask you who you are taking if you want to trade up for their pick so the Habs had concrete info on who teams were moving up for.

 

[MTL Dirty Birdy]

A top pair RD who plays 20+min/night against top line opposition, even if he don't run a PP, is massive upside. A rarely available type of assets.

Its semantic at this point tho.

People need to remind themselves of this

 

[MTL Dirty Birdy]

I think the main argument against him is he doesn’t have that kind of potential and he’s more of a top 4 guy. Either way, good top 4 RHD don’t grow on trees. And as much as people like to poke fun at guys like Petry, having a right handed shot that can move onto the top pair seamlessly for long stretches of time if you need him too is very valuable.

I think he gets sold short on his offensive potential. I see a 30-40 point rock solid two way guy. Suter, Pietramgelo-lite

 

[Hinterland]

I don't get the argument that if a guy doesn't run a PP he is suddenly not top 5 material. Again, go look at the Ryan Mcdonagh draft and show me who would you have picked before him now?

If you want to use the argument that it was a weak draft, include the 2006 draft and tell me who would you pick ahead of him. Heck go to 2008 too, which is loaded with D and I would rather have Mcdonagh in his prime than Karlsson, Carlson, Tyler Myers etc.. Heck even if you put all 3 drafts together he still goes top 5-7 behind Kane, Giroux, Doughty, Stamkos ..

That's Reinbacher's comparable. Some people are short sighted.

I don't know if McDonagh is a good comparable though. Reinbacher is a righty so he has that going for him. Also, he's got way higher offensive upside than McDonagh who can't move the puck Reinbacher already does. Reinbacher is way more adventurous than McDonagh as well. The question is if Reinbacher can ever be as solid as McDonagh. Reinbacher likes to take risks, is nowhere near as good against the puck as McDonagh.

The lone active NHL defenseman who played a comparable draft season in Europe is Rasmus Dahlin. All other defensemen playing their draft season in Europe weren't on the same level. So the entire debate around "limited upside" is bullshit. Question, as with every prospect, is if he's gonna reach his upside but you can't say it's not there.

Btw, Kloten lost again yesterday so avoiding playdowns is gonna be very difficult now.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

No I believe they said their sources told them it was for Reinbacher, they weren't guessing. Also everyone knew Arizona was going to take Reinbacher at 6th so teams were trying to jump them.

Also teams will ask you who you are taking if you want to trade up for their pick so the Habs had concrete info on who teams were moving up for.

You just walked right down the exact path of bias confirmation and fallacy that I just laid out lol. Read the bolded part of your statement and tell me how that is not bias confirmation?? You started by substituting your bias for evidence then extrapolated from that fallacy ridden starting point until you reached the conclusion that you started with.

Find some evidence that teams specifically called about Reinbacher.....until you can do that the correct way to format your opinion will be to refer to Reinbacher as a possibility to be the target of opposing GM's.

 

[Habricot]

This makes no sense when a guy drafted 13th overall in 2023 is scoring more than the 2022 1st overall pick. There was plenty of high end talent on the board where we picked.

This is a stupid argument. Different type of players, different roles, different adaptation, different teams. Applies for both Slaf and Reinbacher. Revisit that in 3 years minimum. For now these comp are useless and futile!

 

[Habricot]

That’s true.

Easy for him to say, he’s not a moderator on this forum.

The thing about Mich is it would be another small forward - Nick, CC, Newhook, Mich- that would be a very small group. I also get them not taking him because of the Russian factor. I get the rationale.

But… we need and have needed a franchise scorer for ages. It will hurt if he becomes one somewhere else. Yes, not necessarily the best pick for us but… it’s all psychological

No it wont! Unless he scores against us. A team is the sum of all pieces. If RB fit better in there puzzle. The that was the rigth choice. That guy migth have strugled in Mtl or could have told the he did not want to play in NA market. Nobody knows and this is why we cant look at ifs a nd why and....
We have RB, Mitchkov is in Philly, nothing else to add. What is best for RB..hope he gets in NA Asap and benefit from a playoff run with Hutson on his side behind Xehkaj and Mailloux pair!!!.

And the Flyers scouting director felt perfectly confident in Michkov.

It means nothing either way.

They also thought Gauthier wanted to be a Flyers!

 

[Habricot]

Cooley is regressing 5 vs 5, whereas Slaf is progression 5 vs 5 and dominating some games now 5 vs 5.

Both still young but I'd much rather have Slaf's development curve as of today that Cooley's.

No! Cooley is not regressing. The game gets faster and fster during the year. He is just normal and as not ajusted yet. Progression is not linear and both of these yong guys are progressing well. They are both fine picks. We nedded more a guy like Slaf then Cooley so I am glad this was our pick.

 

[TheBuriedHab]

You just walked right down the exact path of bias confirmation and fallacy that I just laid out lol. Read the bolded part of your statement and tell me how that is not bias confirmation?? You started by substituting your bias for evidence then extrapolated from that fallacy ridden starting point until you reached the conclusion that you started with.

Find some evidence that teams specifically called about Reinbacher.....until you can do that the correct way to format your opinion will be to refer to Reinbacher as a possibility to be the target of opposing GM's.

I believe you said the Habs didn't know who teams were trading up for.

I told you that the reporters are reporting that teams were trading up for Reinbacher.

 

[JeffreyLFC]

Alzner, Murray, Reinhart, Ellerby, Larsson, Bogosian, Gudbransson, Fleury were also high floor low ceiling highly ranked type of defenseman that were meant to become safe reliable top 4 defenseman for a very long time. They all became average to bad defenseman. Offensive upside and room to grow is very important for defenseman. To me Reinbacher lack dynamism, vision, shot and hands to become a franchise defenseman.

My opinion you do not draft a defenseman top 5 UNLESS he has game breaking abilities and franchise defenseman upside. I just do not see it with Reinbacher.

 

[No ReGretzkys]

Alzner, Murray, Reinhart, Ellerby, Larsson, Bogosian, Gudbransson, Fleury were also high floor low ceiling highly ranked type of defenseman that were meant to become safe reliable top 4 defenseman for a very long time. They all became average to bad defenseman. Offensive upside and room to grow is very important for defenseman. To me Reinbacher lack dynamism, vision, shot and hands to become a franchise defenseman.

My opinion you do not draft a defenseman top 5 UNLESS he has game breaking abilities and franchise defenseman upside. I just do not see it with Reinbacher.

Wow... could not have said it any better... I will be sending this post to my bias friends in my group chat who keep defending the pick and PICKS our management has made for the last 20 years...

 

[Hannibal]

Alzner, Murray, Reinhart, Ellerby, Larsson, Bogosian, Gudbransson, Fleury were also high floor low ceiling highly ranked type of defenseman that were meant to become safe reliable top 4 defenseman for a very long time. They all became average to bad defenseman. Offensive upside and room to grow is very important for defenseman. To me Reinbacher lack dynamism, vision, shot and hands to become a franchise defenseman.

My opinion you do not draft a defenseman top 5 UNLESS he has game breaking abilities and franchise defenseman upside. I just do not see it with Reinbacher.

I kind of agree with that.

But i’ll give him time to proove me wrong. And i’m pulling for him to proove me wrong.

 

[DAChampion]

Alzner, Murray, Reinhart, Ellerby, Larsson, Bogosian, Gudbransson, Fleury were also high floor low ceiling highly ranked type of defenseman that were meant to become safe reliable top 4 defenseman for a very long time.

FYI injuries will derail any career.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

We'll see. I was watching Arpon Basu and MAGs podcast yesterday, they said numerous teams were trying to trade for the Habs pick to draft Reinbacher last year. People were comparing him to Noah Dobson last year before Dobson broke out this year. This kid is viewed as a big time asset around the league.

They literally just read this thread and steal my posts, nothing new

People wanted him at the draft, he does not hold the same value now

 

[Zilo44]

Alzner, Murray, Reinhart, Ellerby, Larsson, Bogosian, Gudbransson, Fleury were also high floor low ceiling highly ranked type of defenseman that were meant to become safe reliable top 4 defenseman for a very long time. They all became average to bad defenseman. Offensive upside and room to grow is very important for defenseman. To me Reinbacher lack dynamism, vision, shot and hands to become a franchise defenseman.

My opinion you do not draft a defenseman top 5 UNLESS he has game breaking abilities and franchise defenseman upside. I just do not see it with Reinbacher.

True but lots of these Ds did not pan out because hockey changed (Bogosian, Gudbranson, Alzner, Reinhart).

Big D who can’t skate

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

I believe you said the Habs didn't know who teams were trading up for.

I told you that the reporters are reporting that teams were trading up for Reinbacher.

Look at the other defenseman in this draft

It was Reinbacher, Simashev, and ASP.....

Quite literally the bummiest group of defenders ever assembled at the top of the draft

Some teams felt the need to reach for a defender anyway. Reinbacher was the best out of a bad group, and it means very little for his value now

Reinbacher was both a safe pick and a reach pick, everyone's 2 favorite kind of draft picks if you ask me

 

[TheBuriedHab]

Look at the other defenseman in this draft

It was Reinbacher, Simashev, and ASP.....

Quite literally the bummiest group of defenders ever assembled at the top of the draft

Some teams felt the need to reach for a defender anyway. Reinbacher was the best out of a bad group, and it means very little for his value now

Reinbacher was both a safe pick and a reach pick, everyone's 2 favorite kind of draft picks if you ask me

Yeah? Go around the league and try to trade for a top pairing RHD. See how much it costs.

Nobody in this draft class has the same profile as Reinbacher either. And I love the right shot defenseman in this up coming draft class like Levshunov, Parekh and to a lesser extent Yakemchuck. They all project as better offensive defenseman but they aren't all weather defenseman like Reinbacher will be.

Reinbacher is the exact same conversation I had about Guhle on these boards years ago when we drafted him. So many people said he was just a safe pick with limited offense. Well look at him now and ask yourself what Guhle's trade value would be right now, even as a LHD. Oh and he was also drafted in what was called a "weak" draft for defenseman at the time.

 

[Jaynki]

Reinbacher was both a safe pick and a reach pick, everyone's 2 favorite kind of draft picks if you ask me

You can't be a both a reach and a safe pick at the same time. Its kinda incongruent as "reach" implies major opportunity cost, therefore high risk.

Also, in more than 95% of the draft. A defenseman is picked top 5. *more often then not, top 3, and also more often then not, more than one defenseman goes top 5.*

So yeah, he(the best D in his class) is not a reach by any factual, objective mean at 5 overall. He is only a reach by opinion and biases. I would even argue that he would not even have been a reach had SJ preferred him to Smith.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

You can't be a both a reach and a safe pick at the same time. Its kinda incongruent as "reach" implies major opportunity cost, therefore high risk.

Also, in more than 95% of the draft. A defenseman is picked top 5. *more often then not, top 3*.

So yeah, he is not a reach by factual, objective mean. He is only a reach by opinion and biases.

Yes you can.

There is no rule that a defender has to go in the top-5 if there are 10 good forwards available. And there is no guarantee that it is the right choice either.

Hughes went for safety seeing as he was too scared to try and guess which small forward would become a star.

Any of the forwards available at 5 were high risk, higher risk than Reinbacher I would add. Safe pick.

At the same time, Reinbacher was NEVER seen as having talent or upside comparable to some of the smaller fowards. There were players on the board with more discernible talent and upside to him, but we went with Reinbacher over them to fill a need. Reach pick.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

Yeah? Go around the league and try to trade for a top pairing RHD. See how much it costs.

Nobody in this draft class has the same profile as Reinbacher either. And I love the right shot defenseman in this up coming draft class like Levshunov, Parekh and to a lesser extent Yakemchuck. They all project as better offensive defenseman but they aren't all weather defenseman like Reinbacher will be.

Reinbacher is the exact same conversation I had about Guhle on these boards years ago when we drafted him. So many people said he was just a safe pick with limited offense. Well look at him now and ask yourself what Guhle's trade value would be right now, even as a LHD. Oh and he was also drafted in what was called a "weak" draft for defenseman at the time.

Is Reinbacher tracking like a top pairing defenseman in your opinion? The issue with the pick is that even Hughes said he sees him as a 2/3

 

[HabsCode]

What is the consensus on the guy this season? Where would he project to rank in 3 years in our line-up? Better than Ghule, Mailloux, Barron and Hutson?

 

[TheBuriedHab]

Is Reinbacher tracking like a top pairing defenseman in your opinion? The issue with the pick is that even Hughes said he sees him as a 2/3

Anything at this point is a guess, but I do think he has the tools to be a top pairing guy. His defensive game is mature for his age, he is mobile and he has a good frame.

I really want to see him play in Laval to get a better picture of his offense, its just hard to get a grasp of his offense on such a dumpster fire team. Kloten has scored 6 goals total in their last 6 games. That team is f***ing brutal.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

What is the consensus on the guy this season? Where would he project to rank in 3 years in our line-up? Better than Ghule, Mailloux, Barron and Hutson?

You have to wait 10 years before we have any answers on that sorry bud

 

[Natey]

Alzner, Murray, Reinhart, Ellerby, Larsson, Bogosian, Gudbransson, Fleury were also high floor low ceiling highly ranked type of defenseman that were meant to become safe reliable top 4 defenseman for a very long time. They all became average to bad defenseman. Offensive upside and room to grow is very important for defenseman. To me Reinbacher lack dynamism, vision, shot and hands to become a franchise defenseman.

My opinion you do not draft a defenseman top 5 UNLESS he has game breaking abilities and franchise defenseman upside. I just do not see it with Reinbacher.

Ryan Murray is such a weird add. Injuries can derail the career of any player. Ryan Murray was GOATED.

The fact that Ryan Murray is still in the NHL, after all his injury problems, shows you just how good he would have been.

Karl Alzner played almost 700 career games... he would have been fine if the game didn't change so much. He got drafted in that transition period where the NHL was transitioning but no one knew if it would stick. His skating was always the problem and once the NHL became a speed skating world, players like him obviously wouldn't succeed.

Bogosian has played over 800 career games.

Adam Larsson is such a weird add. He's played over 800 career games and is still a very solid player.