Prospect Info: David Reinbacher

[JoelWarlord]

Am I crazy or are you making the case for Michkov with this post?

You cite Michkov's higher ppg statistically in their respective draft years. Then you go on to say that Ovi's record may/should have been higher than it otherwise was because young players are held back to some degree in the KHL (which I agree with) and point to what he ended up doing in the NHL soon after. Does this not also apply to Michkov as a young player in the KHL?

The argument is that while his stats are obviously crazy impressive for a draft-year KHL player and tell us that he's absolutely very good and a top-10 talent, they aren't slam dunk proof that we're looking at a Generational or Malkin tier player. The thing about the KHL is you can't always make basic assumptions like "bad teams are still mostly trying to win every game in good faith and ice legitimate top level professionals". The post from @waffledave that you're replying to was talking about how 8 of his 20 points came against Kunlun Red Star, with this absolutely atrocious goalie in net. I don't personally think that's a huge deal b/c even if we arbitrarily take half of those away 16P in KHL 30 games is still great, but it's an example of the context issues in the KHL as this goalie doesn't even belong on the bench in the SPHL, but KRS exists to promote hockey in China so he gets KHL starts.

Either way, the more significant point is that the KHL is way more stratified than the NHL or other European leagues, it's much closer to European soccer in that way. Top junior talent usually gets funneled to the bigger and richer KHL clubs early on, and then those players struggle to get ice time as 17 year olds because their teams are playing to win and they have veterans to appease. Michkov got loaned from 1st place (50-13-5) St Petersburg to last place (11-47-10) Sochi and got opportunities he'd never get even on a middle of the pack team, which is not usually what happens with KHL prospects. We just don't really know how Michkov's year stacks up historically because Ovechkin and Malkin never got those opportunities in their draft years so we don't have a reference point for phenoms like we do with Bedard where we can know definitively that 71G and 72A in the WHL is historically insane.

FWIW I'd say the same about the whole "2nd best Swiss league draft year" thing with Reinbacher where that's mostly because Swiss prospects go to the CHL and they don't import foreign teenagers. It's impressive but doesn't inherently mean that he's a super phenom because his draft year point total was triple of Roman Josi's.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

The argument is that while his stats are obviously crazy impressive for a draft-year KHL player and tell us that he's absolutely very good and a top-10 talent, they aren't slam dunk proof that we're looking at a Generational or Malkin tier player. The thing about the KHL is you can't always make basic assumptions like "bad teams are still mostly trying to win every game in good faith and ice legitimate top level professionals". The post from @waffledave that you're replying to was talking about how 8 of his 20 points came against Kunlun Red Star, with this absolutely atrocious goalie in net. I don't personally think that's a huge deal b/c even if we arbitrarily take half of those away 16P in KHL 30 games is still great, but it's an example of the context issues in the KHL as this goalie doesn't even belong on the bench in the SPHL, but KRS exists to promote hockey in China so he gets KHL starts.

Either way, the more significant point is that the top talent usually gets funneled to the bigger and richer clubs early on, and then those players struggle to get ice time as 17 year olds because their teams are playing to win and they have veterans to appease. Michkov got loaned from 1st place (50-13-5) St Petersburg to last place (11-47-10) Sochi and got opportunities he'd never get even on a middle of the pack team, which is not usually what happens with KHL prospects. We just don't really know how Michkov's year stacks up historically because Ovechkin and Malkin never got those opportunities in their draft years so we don't have a reference point for phenoms like we do with Bedard where we can know definitively that 71G and 72A in the WHL is historically insane.

FWIW I'd say the same about the whole "2nd best Swiss league draft year" thing with Reinbacher where that's mostly because Swiss prospects go to the CHL and they don't import foreign teenagers. It's impressive but doesn't inherently mean that he's a super phenom because his draft year point total was triple of Roman Josi's.

People basing their narrative on stats is always dumb.

Great post!

 

[Jaynki]

Was this directed at me? It says you replied to EP but I got the notification. Maybe you said something mean and then thought better of it

Anyway, I'll answer you just the same: You're right in that he's not risk averse about pissing off fans/paying customers. The Canadiens organization is totally fine doing that because they think the addicts will keep coming back no matter what. Where the organization is risk-averse is in betting on talent.

Instead, they always bet on safety, defense, and KarAkTeR (now KuLtUrE). Same organizational philosophy as always. And it'll crash and burn just like it always does.

I've said before that this team is run like a publicly-traded corporation rather than a hockey team that wants to present a compelling product or, God forbid, win cups. That's the best analogy I can give.

Concerning the notification, i had you since a couple of days on my reply and i had not deleted it, so when i replied to EP, it tagged you from this old post. No worries, i will never be mean. (Like you are worrying about that in the beginning :p)

Now, It is a non-sense to think that the organisation is risk averse of betting on talent. The only things backing this up right now is the 2023 draft and that is debatable.

Also, you present like character or culture are a bad thing. I know we are rebutted by Bergevin, Therrien, Lefebvre etc but its a whole other game now.

The thing is its a good thing for an organisation to embody a winning culture as long as its well done. (It wasnt well done with Bergevin.) We dont want a country club like Toronto. I would argue to give MSL some rope here.

Finally, giving Caufield an 8 year extension, the Dach trade, Slaf and Hutson selection, MSL hiring. How is that not betting on talent?

 

[NewDef]

???

I'm not super deep into politics, but I don't think it's illegal to hire a contractor in Russia atm? Lots of platforms let you hire people there I believe, so I don't think hiring there is an issue.

Do no teams have Russian scouts right now? I find that hard to believe.



Thank God you're not insulting me. I don't think I'd ever survive.

Anyway, to respond to what you're saying, I'm aware this is their internal logic, and I think it's a combination of being a limp dicked organization with no balls and continuing the same stupid, idiotic, brain-dead, loser mentality that they've had for 30 years that has led to failure.

You draft talent. You do not draft for character and culture. It's the same dumb shit we keep doing over and over and over and some fans just gobble it up. It's fine if you're ok with mediocrity forever, but I want excellence.

As to your other points, our prospects are stacked on D, but our forward prospects are nothing to write home about. As Montreal Canadiens fans, we always overvalue our talent and this is no exception.

I like Dach, and he might be a fine center, but he's never been a top point producer anywhere in his life. Will that suddenly change?

What use is Newhook? Even if he hits his ceiling of 60-70 point top 6er, that's basically our 30 year prototype for a top 5 Habs forward: Undersized and mediocre.

So what's our top 6? It's weak, and it's not going to win you a cup.

This is looking like a wasted rebuild. You know who we look like? The Detroit Red Wings. Except our Seider and Larkin aren't as good, and we have a similar lack of talent up front. And it's not going to get us anywhere other than back to being a bubble team that loses in the first round. Have fun with that.

You draft talent even if it's an a**hole? Then why would Duchesne be bought out? Why was Ribiero so hated in his own team? Why would Galchenyuk be put on waiver 2 weeks after signing a contract with what, a 5th, 6th team at 29? Yakupov?

If you ever coached, even at Atome-Peewee level, you know a bad apple will spoil team spirit in a heartbeat. Then that team that could win starts to give up at 1-2 in the second period because "we're gonna lose again, joe you suck, frank why did you not pass the puck, goalie I could do better than you with closed eyes..."....

A sucker sucks a team of will power. Even coaching U11/U13, i try not to pick these kids, they have a right to play, i just don't want to deal with this sh*t. I'm pretty sure most coaches try to avoid the drama if they can.

I believe Reinbacher will be in the Pietrangelo type of player which will be a staple for yeeeaaars... a guy that can play top 4, shutdown opposition and kickstart the zone exits. This player at maturity typically cannot be found on the market when you want one. Love that pick.

 

[Jaynki]

Let's not play word games here, the "process and planification" are geared to minimize risk so to say it has nothing to do with risk aversion is preposterous. He could just as easily have a process built on consistently prioritizing offensive upside regardless of character and defensive flaws over safer but more well rounded players which would be risk inclined behaviour.

I didn't say that he won't take risks but they will be very calculated and he will be patient when faced with risk as opposed to being cavalier. I suspect that we both agree on this but semantics have come to the forefront here.

Passing on Michkov was absolutely risk averse behaviour as was selecting Reinbacher. I am not using the term "risk averse" to criticize these decisions but to simply point out that he is very protective of the culture that he is building and will make unpopular decisions with the fanbase in order to preserve and nurture it. I am just an interested observer of this process and am not upset like many are but I am curious to see how all of this pans out.

You are correct about the jury still being out which is why I am avoiding the hot takes and emotionally charged responses to recent events.

Nice post, great read. I think i agree with at least 90% of your post.

 

[NewDef]

Your position on Newhook is noted. No one has a Crystal ball as to a player’s ultimate ceiling. I don’t think the price we paid was unconscionable. Newhook fits into the scheme that the team’s management is trying to build: speed. In that regard, Newhook is a perfect fit. Now we have to hope the other parts of his game develop accordingly. It was certainly a decision governed by the principles of calculated risk.

Best case, Newhook pans out and goes 70-80+ points per season OR is a really good 3rd line winger at 3M for ~50 points. We did not get a 100 point guys BUT he's fitting in and will have a chance to strive. He's a part of the team, not the guy we got to make us contenders magically.

I'm good with the plan and like the acquisitions, it's coherent and a sound way to build for a solid 10-12 years run when all falls into place.

 

[ZUKI]

The argument is that while his stats are obviously crazy impressive for a draft-year KHL player and tell us that he's absolutely very good and a top-10 talent, they aren't slam dunk proof that we're looking at a Generational or Malkin tier player. The thing about the KHL is you can't always make basic assumptions like "bad teams are still mostly trying to win every game in good faith and ice legitimate top level professionals". The post from @waffledave that you're replying to was talking about how 8 of his 20 points came against Kunlun Red Star, with this absolutely atrocious goalie in net. I don't personally think that's a huge deal b/c even if we arbitrarily take half of those away 16P in KHL 30 games is still great, but it's an example of the context issues in the KHL as this goalie doesn't even belong on the bench in the SPHL, but KRS exists to promote hockey in China so he gets KHL starts.

Either way, the more significant point is that the top talent usually gets funneled to the bigger and richer clubs early on, and then those players struggle to get ice time as 17 year olds because their teams are playing to win and they have veterans to appease. Michkov got loaned from 1st place (50-13-5) St Petersburg to last place (11-47-10) Sochi and got opportunities he'd never get even on a middle of the pack team, which is not usually what happens with KHL prospects. We just don't really know how Michkov's year stacks up historically because Ovechkin and Malkin never got those opportunities in their draft years so we don't have a reference point for phenoms like we do with Bedard where we can know definitively that 71G and 72A in the WHL is historically insane.

FWIW I'd say the same about the whole "2nd best Swiss league draft year" thing with Reinbacher where that's mostly because Swiss prospects go to the CHL and they don't import foreign teenagers. It's impressive but doesn't inherently mean that he's a super phenom because his draft year point total was triple of Roman Josi's.

great post ! i think that you deserve the cookie for best post of the week. I will even keep your name for the cigar for best post of July.

I've read this before but didn't remember where and when, so it was pleasure to read it here ; the minutes on the ice are important here, as is the 8 points against that bad goalie. The kid will be good but maybe not as good as the expectations of his pompom girls .

That said, i really am exited about Rain Maker tripling the production of Josi, once in the NHL

 

[ZUKI]

Nice post, great read. I think i agree with at least 90% of your post.

and the 10 % ? what about that 10% ?

 

[jiboy]

The way he skates around with his shoulders loaded he reminds me a bit of McAvoy , the quick half slapper is a bit Subbanesque.

He will be a good NHL player most likely , remain to be seen if he’ll be able to become elite.

 

[JoelWarlord]

That said, i really am exited about Rain Maker tripling the production of Josi, once in the NHL

I'm a bit more modest, I think around double is fair and he'll settle in as a consistent 120pt a year player with career highs around 190

 

[NORiculous]

I am just an interested observer of this process and am not upset

Well I am upset, I also think his strategy is wrong.

But I am also interested observer and don’t mind if he proves me wrong. I’d be very impressed though because I currently don’t think it will work that well, but… the Habs are still in a zone to make something out of it.

I am hoping the way to make it work isn’t a superstar goaltender though.

I’d rather see some highlight real goals here and there while drafting more talent, then see some boring bubble team that goes on the occasional Cinderella run.

 

[ZUKI]

I'm a bit more modest, I think around double is fair and he'll settle in as a consistent 120pt a year player with career highs around 190

absolutely agree, Lapointe did a great selection that will finally shut up the mouths of the frustrated Subban fans club pompom girls and boys

 

[Catanddogguitarrr]

Rainmaker, rainmaker
The sky is gray just by the touch of your hand
Rainmaker, rainmaker
Make me some rain, make all my crops grow tall


Another great song by Steve Winwood of group Traffic. Not everybody can appreciate that kind of music but it was great and innovative at the time. The perfect mix of rock, blues and jazz with touchs of funk. The melodic progression have this strange hypnotic repeating theme and it's a good canvas for improvisation with a flute traversiere, saxophone, violin, guitar and keyboards. The drummer is a top to understand the beat and to keep it tight. The bass line is great too. This is some kind of music Keith Richards, the Beatles, Pink Floyd and the Doors were jealous. I think everybody were admirative of their work. It's sounds like a jam that goes well and fits nicelly. And it's 2000 times better than any Greatfull Dead jams. It leaves a feeling of strange, moody, sad and intriging music. This is beauty and this is art. Steve Winwood is a genious!

 

[Toene]

The way he skates around with his shoulders loaded he reminds me a bit of McAvoy , the quick half slapper is a bit Subbanesque.

He will be a good NHL player most likely , remain to be seen if he’ll be able to become elite.

Quick slapper? Dude's wind up was in slow motion. I say this as a Subban fan, his shot could've been so much better. You could see it coming from a mile away. The PP setup that tried to get him the puck at all times didnt help either.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Well I am upset, I also think his strategy is wrong.

But I am also interested observer and don’t mind if he proves me wrong. I’d be very impressed though because I currently don’t think it will work that well, but… the Habs are still in a zone to make something out of it.

I am hoping the way to make it work isn’t a superstar goaltender though.

I’d rather see some highlight real goals here and there while drafting more talent, then see some boring bubble team that goes on the occasional Cinderella run.

Highlight reel goals are fun when you are winning but they feel cheap and maybe just a little douchey when you're losing lol. Winning is by a mile my biggest concern as well as the organization's most important responsibility to the fanbase and to those who came before them. The Montreal Canadiens are arguably the most prestigious sports franchise (relative to their sport) in the entire world and undoubtedly the most prestigious hockey team on the planet. I take pride in that and getting back to this team's winning roots is paramount. Would I prefer to see an offensively explosive championship team rather than a conservative championship team? Sure, I would really enjoy that but winning comes first.

All of that being said, Hughes is trying to build an exciting team and Reinbacher may be able to dramatically increase that excitement by breaking up plays and sending our young stars on breakaways and odd man rushes. There is a lot of smoke around Michkov being a locker room problem and it may only be smoke and it might be worse than that, I don't know but I suspect Kent knows far more than any of us do and if Michkov represents a potential disruptive force on top of the other more defined issues then it is hard to blame him for passing up on Michkov. I don't believe for a second that it was as simple as Hughes wanted a RD and made a "need" pick. There is more to this and we may never know but Reinbacher is a good prospect and he is a Hab now so I am going to focus on that and Philly can deal with the Michkovian circus for better or for worse.

For the record I am not admonishing your preference for style over substance as to each their own....hopefully we will both be happy with Hughes in the end.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

A big part of producing offensively as a Dman is being offensive minded when opportunities present themselves. One thing I noticed of Reinbacher both in his league play, at various international tournies and even at the rookie camp, is he will take his chances. That should lead to decent production just in of itself.

 

[Catanddogguitarrr]

Highlight reel goals are fun when you are winning but they feel cheap and maybe just a little douchey when you're losing lol. Winning is by a mile my biggest concern as well as the organization's most important responsibility to the fanbase and to those who came before them. The Montreal Canadiens are arguably the most prestigious sports franchise (relative to their sport) in the entire world and undoubtedly the most prestigious hockey team on the planet. I take pride in that and getting back to this team's winning roots is paramount. Would I prefer to see an offensively explosive championship team rather than a conservative championship team? Sure, I would really enjoy that but winning comes first.

All of that being said, Hughes is trying to build an exciting team and Reinbacher may be able to dramatically increase that excitement by breaking up plays and sending our young stars on breakaways and odd man rushes. There is a lot of smoke around Michkov being a locker room problem and it may only be smoke and it might be worse than that, I don't know but I suspect Kent knows far more than any of us do and if Michkov represents a potential disruptive force on top of the other more defined issues then it is hard to blame him for passing up on Michkov. I don't believe for a second that it was as simple as Hughes wanted a RD and made a "need" pick. There is more to this and we may never know but Reinbacher is a good prospect and he is a Hab now so I am going to focus on that and Philly can deal with the Michkovian circus for better or for worse.

For the record I am not admonishing your preference for style over substance as to each their own....hopefully we will both be happy with Hughes in the end.

Exactly what I'm thinking, or 98% close. Very good post!

 

[waffledave]

So I ask again, why do other teams still have Russian scouts in place?

Beats me. All I can say is it's not easy to get money into Russia from a western country right now.

 

[Catanddogguitarrr]

Beats me. All I can say is it's not easy to get money into Russia from a western country right now.

Scouts have to be paid, like any other worker. They won't do it for free.

A big part of producing offensively as a Dman is being offensive minded when opportunities present themselves. One thing I noticed of Reinbacher both in his league play, at various international tournies and even at the rookie camp, is he will take his chances. That should lead to decent production just in of itself.

He looks like he takes possession of the puck and escape anywhere his skates will bring him. He can accelerate straight line or curve line. He's a very talented skater.

 

[jiboy]

Quick slapper? Dude's wind up was in slow motion. I say this as a Subban fan, his shot could've been so much better. You could see it coming from a mile away. The PP setup that tried to get him the puck at all times didnt help either.

Subban had that big slapper where he got his stick super high and tried to go max power

But he also had a small wind up slapper where he just tried to put it on net , he didnt use it enough but he definately had this shot in his repertoire

 

[montreal]

Goal - 2:10
Assist - 4:27

 

[Mudz]

The way he skates around with his shoulders loaded he reminds me a bit of McAvoy , the quick half slapper is a bit Subbanesque.

He will be a good NHL player most likely , remain to be seen if he’ll be able to become elite.

What is elite? That's what I find hard to define.

I don't see him much on the PP with possibly Hutson, Mailloux and Barron in front of him. Plus MSL that likes to play 4-5 forwards.

 

[Twisted Sinister]

Nope it wouldn't be.

But let's say for the sake of the argument that had delegated everything Michkov to the regional scout. Then the problem would be the same.

Since the top brass was able to see everyone they were considering at 5 live, except Michkov, who was only seen live by an entry-level scout.

No regional scouts was apparently important to Hughes. He said so. Maybe he's lying. Who knows.

You draft talent even if it's an a**hole? Then why would Duchesne be bought out? Why was Ribiero so hated in his own team? Why would Galchenyuk be put on waiver 2 weeks after signing a contract with what, a 5th, 6th team at 29? Yakupov?

If you ever coached, even at Atome-Peewee level, you know a bad apple will spoil team spirit in a heartbeat. Then that team that could win starts to give up at 1-2 in the second period because "we're gonna lose again, joe you suck, frank why did you not pass the puck, goalie I could do better than you with closed eyes..."....

A sucker sucks a team of will power. Even coaching U11/U13, i try not to pick these kids, they have a right to play, i just don't want to deal with this sh*t. I'm pretty sure most coaches try to avoid the drama if they can.

I believe Reinbacher will be in the Pietrangelo type of player which will be a staple for yeeeaaars... a guy that can play top 4, shutdown opposition and kickstart the zone exits. This player at maturity typically cannot be found on the market when you want one. Love that pick.

The Cult of CuLtUrE

The info on Michkov is all over the place. The culture cultists believe the bad reports and those of us that want talent on this team are skeptical. Regardless, insulating a player with veterans that bring good culture will mitigate stupidity.

Beats me. All I can say is it's not easy to get money into Russia from a western country right now.

To that I will reply as always: Losers make excuses. Winners get shit done.

Concerning the notification, i had you since a couple of days on my reply and i had not deleted it, so when i replied to EP, it tagged you from this old post. No worries, i will never be mean. (Like you are worrying about that in the beginning :p)

Now, It is a non-sense to think that the organisation is risk averse of betting on talent. The only things backing this up right now is the 2023 draft and that is debatable.

Also, you present like character or culture are a bad thing. I know we are rebutted by Bergevin, Therrien, Lefebvre etc but its a whole other game now.

The thing is its a good thing for an organisation to embody a winning culture as long as its well done. (It wasnt well done with Bergevin.) We dont want a country club like Toronto. I would argue to give MSL some rope here.

Finally, giving Caufield an 8 year extension, the Dach trade, Slaf and Hutson selection, MSL hiring. How is that not betting on talent?

Haha, no, you are not the mean type at all.

I don't think character and culture are a bad thing, but I do think it's bad when you overcompensate in those values at the expense of talent.

As it pertains to betting on talent, I don't think any of the examples you listed, other than Caufield, are examples of betting on talent.

-Slaf was an example of betting on Moar Bigger and recency bias from those tournaments he had where he "took the nation of Slovakia and put it on his back" like our idiot head scout said. If they wanted to bet on talent, they could have drafted Cooley, for example.

-Dach is an interesting cat. High draft pick for his moar biggerness (again), but he hasn't ever been a huge point producer. Nevertheless, up until now, that looks like a good move.

-Hutson was picked 62ND. Let's not call them geniuses on that one. Hutson is proof positive that people value the intelligence of NHL scouts WAY WAY WAY too highly on this forum and elsewhere.

 

[waffledave]

To that I will reply as always: Losers make excuses. Winners get shit done.

The situation with Russia is pretty serious. You can't just toss out some cliche about winners and losers when an entire country has been disconnected from the global financial system. We had to cease all operations there, people lost their jobs.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

I think some people recently are bringing up some great points that I believe have been echoed in the Canadiens front office.

Offense is pretty hard to create, no matter how skilled your forward group is, if the puck remains in your own end for a prolonged period of time.

They won't have a very long leash this year for the Suzuki-Caufield duo because they noticed that a lot of their shifts are them struggling to get the puck out of their own end and being too gassed to create something offensively.

Dach helped immensely with that but they want Dach at center where he helps the team more by being the leader of his own line.

Having a defense that kills plays and moves the puck up the ice to the skilled guys efficiently and quickly is how offense is created. You might not see it on the stat sheet every time because so many touches happen after a guy like Reinbacher kills a play and moves it up ice, but that is how offense begins in the NHL and you won't score many goals from your own end.

No shit sherlock, we spent the latter part of Bergevin's tenure berating him for not acquiring a true PMD, cuz no one could pass it out of own zone after Subban and Markov left.

We already had a cupboard filled with promising Ds before the draft, so it's not like it was an urgent matter. And guess what genius, if your Ds can get it out, but if all they have to pass to is Suzuki and Caufield, we aren't gonna do better either.