Player Discussion David Quinn: Part IV

[Machinehead]

Yeah, like waiting 12 years for Ovechkin to finally figure out that he can’t score his way to the Stanley Cup when Trotz got him to buy in?

Personally I care about the final product and I don’t care whether offense or defense comes first. Lafreniere and Kakko - we know that offense is there.

Ovechkin under Trotz was probably the worst defensive player in the NHL.

The idea that Trotz got Ovechkin to do this great buy-in is a Grimm brothers tale that the internet wrote. What actually happened was the opposite: he told Ovechkin to just f*** it to keep him scoring 50 goals into his mid-30's.

That's because, while yes, Trotz excels at defense, great coaches don't force players to die at the alter of a cult-like system. Instead, they understand the weapons they have, and make those weapons the best versions of themselves.

It was that clown Adam Oates who tried to turn Ovechkin into Bob Gainey. Ovechkin had his two worst seasons and the Caps went out in the first round followed by missing the playoffs altogether.

 

[Machinehead]

And that’s certainly one approach.

I think there’d be a lot of debate as to whether it’s the best approach. But it is certainly one potential path.

Just my opinion, it seems to be the one that works.

Ovechkin is just one example: most NHL stars couldn't point to the defensive zone on a diagram.

I think Lafreniere and Kakko were expected to be of that ilk, especially Lafreniere.

 

[Edge]

Just my opinion, it seems to be the one that works.

Ovechkin is just one example: most NHL stars couldn't point to the defensive zone on a diagram.

I think Lafreniere and Kakko were expected to be of that ilk, especially Lafreniere.

But are we actually coaching the offense out of their game?

I mean the offense wasn’t any different with the other top 3 picks from the last two years in many cases - with the exception of Stutzle’s open skate night.

So is it a Rangers things, or is it an emerging trend in the league? I am kind of curious to see where this all leads.

 

[kovazub94]

Yeah the Caps didn't win because OV was too busy scoring goals lol.

Funny how the Trotz narrative didn't fit the 2 years previous to the year they didn't win where they got the choker label. Did OV magically learn how to play defense in the year they finally got over the hump?

Not to mention, OV broke into the league scoring 50! Had he been coached to focus more on defense from the start I doubt he'd be as good as he has been offensively. If anything, hes the exact example of what I'm saying a coach SHOULD do. A more defense conscious OV didn't really occur until the latter half of his career... You know after he already honed and showcased his ability to basically think the puck into the net.

Funny how Caps miss Trotz now and you still continue to listen to idiots calling him choker? The point was that even once in a lifetime player like Ovi needed to learn how to play proper hockey. Rangers prospects are doing it now and will be better for it when they hit their prime. If you prescribe to the notion that offensive talent is that and that it's not prospect but coach's effect on these prospects then their offense will come through eventually and they also will be able to play proper hockey by then too, no?

 

[Crease]

Have any of the beat writers asked Quinn to discuss Kakko and Laf’s lack of production so far this season?

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Funny how Caps miss Trotz now and you still continue to listen to idiots calling him choker? The point was that even once in a lifetime player like Ovi needed to learn how to play proper hockey. Rangers prospects are doing it now and will be better for it when they hit their prime. If you prescribe to the notion that offensive talent is that and that it's not prospect but coach's effect on these prospects then their offense will come through eventually and they also will be able to play proper hockey by then too, no?

... No it's more likely that they won't be.

These kids still need to hone their skills even if they're high picks. Trying to round them out this early has a much greater chance of going poorly than it does the other way. Sure they may develop defensively earlier than expected, but the offensive skills (or the utilization of said skills) are much more likely to stagnate.

The best way to develop talent is to always continue to strengthen the things that separate you from the pack. If you spend too much time trying to iron out your "weaknesses", the pack ends up catching up or passing you. Those weaknesses can be minimized as time goes on.

Plus its not like our forwards are even THAT well coached defensively. Its gotten much better this year with JM, but they're probably average-ish collectively.

Also, whats the excuse for giving neither of them PP1 time right now? Those are soft minutes for them to really jump start their game, but Quinn would rather feed those minutes to the likes of Strome and Buchnevich, both of whom have been terrible on the PP this year. It's a slam dunk decision to make at this juncture and a pretty easy way to potentially kill two birds with a single rock.

 

[Edge]

Have any of the beat writers asked Quinn to discuss Kakko and Laf’s lack of production so far this season?

This is the honest truth, it really is more of a topic on here than anywhere else. To the point that it’s almost startling to see the contrast. It’s not to say it doesn’t exist, but it’s part of a larger conversation about teenage forward talent in the league.

Even Stutzle, who some are pointing to on here as an example, has 4 goals and 12 points in 29 games at even strength. Laf has 4 goals and 7 points in 27 games. So the difference outside of power play opportunity is maybe one more goal for Laf in the same number of games, and maybe 3 or 4 fewer points?

I say that because I think there’s some context missing even when we hold Stutzle up as a positive example.

The conversation in scouting circles tends to be why so many younger kids aren’t posting the numbers we saw 3 or 4 years ago. It’s not a Kakko/Laf conversation.

 

[Machinehead]

But are we actually coaching the offense out of their game?

I mean the offense wasn’t any different with the other top 3 picks from the last two years in many cases - with the exception of Stutzle’s open skate night.

So is it a Rangers things, or is it an emerging trend in the league? I am kind of curious to see where this all leads.

We may be seeing a shift and it's impossible to say until that completely plays out, but I think a number of stats have been shown that demonstrate Kakko and Lafreniere are below even the low-end of what to expect from these guys.

AK posted a stat last night showing that out of the 38 second overalls to make it to D+2 in the NHL, Kakko ranks 37th in points per game. That includes the defensemen. That's pretty alarming and something the Rangers should be aware of, even if the sky isn't necessarily falling.

The one guy behind Kakko in 38th is Pete Mahovlich who had a fantastic career in the NHL, so fancy that.

 

[duhmetreE]

What's even the argument? David Quinn is a good coach and everyone else is the problem? Everyone doing good is because of Quinn.... they doing bad? not his fault. Kids are struggling because they're not ready? Our offensive gameplan is just not being executed by everyone? The middle of the ice is vacated by players choice? Our Powerplay, is the players again? We're flat to start because of the vets? Our transition sucks because we're youngest team in the league?

The list goes on.... there's an excuse for everything.

Not everything is his fault but there are some glaring issues that are.

 

[eco's bones]

I think one thing that doesn’t get a lot of mention is that the Rangers team defense has made significant improvements this year in spite of some iffy goaltending.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

What's even the argument? David Quinn is a good coach and everyone else is the problem? Everyone doing good is because of Quinn.... they doing bad? not his fault. Kids are struggling because they're not ready? Our offensive gameplan is just not being executed by everyone? The middle of the ice is vacated by players choice? Our Powerplay, is the players again? We're flat to start because of the vets? Our transition sucks because we're youngest team in the league?

The list goes on.... there's an excuse for everything.

Not everything is his fault but there are some glaring issues that are.

It's the go to for the Quinntuplets.

The funniest part is a few of them pointing at Gauthier and K'Andre for "losing" the game yesterday was the most predictable thing ever. Not one mention about their horrendous start (which has become a running theme of this season) or running the same inept group of forwards out their for the PP where they failed to convert against one of the worst (may have been the worst) PK units in the league.

The truth is all of those things contributed, but 2 of the 4 can be tied to coaching.

 

[Edge]

We may be seeing a shift and it's impossible to say until that completely plays out, but I think a number of stats have been shown that demonstrate Kakko and Lafreniere are below even the low-end of what to expect from these guys.

AK posted a stat last night showing that out of the 38 second overalls to make it to D+2 in the NHL, Kakko ranks 37th in points per game. That includes the defensemen. That's pretty alarming and something the Rangers should be aware of, even if the sky isn't necessarily falling.

The one guy behind Kakko in 38th is Pete Mahovlich who had a fantastic career in the NHL, so fancy that.

I guess my question is why is there a shift now on stat lines?

For years there was a movement on here to point to data when someone was scoring at a pace that data suggested shouldn’t be a result.

Now we see data that shows these kids should be scoring at a greater pace than the stat line and we are pointing to the scoring.

So to be honest with you, I worry we run the risk of criteria changes to fit the worst case scenarios we dread.

But even putting that aside for a second, there’s been this scoring shift the last few years that is somewhat noticeable among forwards taken on the top three.

In 2017, Nolan Patrick scored 8 goals and 22 points at even strength. Nico scored 19 goals and 46 points.

In 2018, Svechnikov scored 20 goals and 32 points at ES. Kotkaniemi had 10 goals and 29 points.

In 2019, Hughes posted 3 goals and 12 points at ES, while Kakko posted 8 goals and 10 points. Dach had 8 goals and 20 points at ES.

From 2020, Laf is on pace for 12 goals and 21 points at ES, Byfield isn’t even playing and Stutzle is on pace for 11 goals and 22 points at ES.

So there’s a bit of a trend, but there’s also quite a decent sized cluster as well.

I mean basically looking at the same size, we are talking about a spread from 3-20 goals and 10-46 points, with numbers seemingly declined from year to year.

If we exclude Byfield, who isn’t playing at all:

Goals - mean is 11, median is 10 and mode is 8 at ES.

Points - mean is 23.7, median is 22 and more is 22 for ES.

Admittedly, there would be some tweak if we extended the 2019 kids to 82 game paces, but I don’t know if it would really shift things too much. It would only serve to push them closer to the average and I feel like we’re still basically looking at 10/11 goals and 23ish points.

 

[Machinehead]

What's even the argument? David Quinn is a good coach and everyone else is the problem? Everyone doing good is because of Quinn.... they doing bad? not his fault. Kids are struggling because they're not ready? Our offensive gameplan is just not being executed by everyone? The middle of the ice is vacated by players choice? Our Powerplay, is the players again? We're flat to start because of the vets? Our transition sucks because we're youngest team in the league?

The list goes on.... there's an excuse for everything.

Not everything is his fault but there are some glaring issues that are.

I don't think the argument is pro-Quinn as much as it is "the situation just isn't that bad and we need to be patient."

I just don't think you can say that anymore. The point totals are just BAD. They're jump-off-the-page bad compared to just about any comparable situation, especially Kakko.

People have brought up Hughes but he's on pace for 46 points over 82 games this year. Even that is probably not what you expect if you're the Devils but it's an improvement on last year and of course, Hughes doesn't get to play the Devils! And the way Kakko is going, he's going to play 100 games in the NHL before he hits 46 points. Probably way more, that's being generous.

I'm not saying the Rangers need to go on a rampage and nuke everyone but I think where well past the point where they have to ask why the production is so low and determine how much of that is under their control. Quinn is just the easiest place to start.

And you know what? Teams fire coaches. The average NHL coach lasts somewhere between 2.5 to 3.5 years. Quinn is already in the top half of longest tenured coaches in the NHL.

I would almost never characterize firing an NHL coach as a knee-jerk reaction. They age like milk in general.

 

[Machinehead]

I guess my question is why is there a shift now on stat lines?

For years there was a movement on here to point to data when someone was scoring at a pace that data suggested shouldn’t be a result.

Now we see data that shows these kids should be scoring at a greater pace than the stat line and we are pointing to the scoring.

So to be honest with you, I worry we run the risk of criteria changes to fit the worst case scenarios we dread.

But even putting that aside for a second, there’s been this scoring shift the last few years that is somewhat noticeable among forwards taken on the top three.

In 2017, Nolan Patrick scored 8 goals and 22 points at even strength. Nico scored 19 goals and 46 points.

In 2018, Svechnikov scored 20 goals and 32 points at ES. Kotkaniemi had 10 goals and 29 points.

In 2019, Hughes posted 3 goals and 12 points at ES, while Kakko posted 8 goals and 10 points. Dach had 8 goals and 20 points at ES.

From 2020, Laf is on pace for 12 goals and 21 points at ES, Byfield isn’t even playing and Stutzle is on pace for 11 goals and 22 points at ES.

So there’s a bit of a trend, but there’s also quite a decent sized cluster as well.

I mean basically looking at the same size, we are talking about a spread from 3-20 goals and 10-46 points, with numbers seemingly declined from year to year.

If we exclude Byfield, who isn’t playing at all:

Goals - mean is 11, median is 10 and mode is 8 at ES.

Points - mean is 23.7, median is 22 and more is 22 for ES.

There would be some tweak if we extended the 2019 kids to 82 games, but I don’t know if it would really shift things too much. I feel like we’re still looking at 10/11 goals and 23ish points.

If we're going to characterize it this way, and I think that's valid, then it's mostly an issue of powerplay time we're talking about.

At that point, I think it's fair to ask why Lafreniere and Kakko aren't seeing powerplay time in any meaningful way, especially when our powerplay can't score at all.

Also if your mean in 23.7 ES points, Kakko is behind that in a not-insignificant way.

 

[Edge]

If we're going to characterize it this way, and I think that's valid, then it's mostly an issue of powerplay time we're talking about.

At that point, I think it's fair to ask why Lafreniere and Kakko aren't seeing powerplay time in any meaningful way, especially when our powerplay can't score at all.

Also if your mean in 23.7 ES points, Kakko is behind that in a not-insignificant way.

And that’s a fair question concerning DQ. Now one could say that Panarin, Kreider, Zibanejad, Strome and Buch would all possibly be ahead in the rotation. That doesn’t make it the prudent choice, but it does make it a thing.

Re: Kakko, his ES numbers are the lowest, though fairly close to Hughes.

But what’s also interesting is that his play (but not points) has improved in his second year, whereas a lot of options saw their play plateau or noticeably decline from their rookie high water marks (a potential caveat when looking at Stutzle).

In that same train of thought, with the exception of Svechnikov, there’s actually been quite a bit of struggle from this forward group in their follow-up seasons.

Patrick, Hisch, Kotkaniemi have struggled to get back to their rookie year stat lines and have performed closer to what their younger and lower-scoring contemporaries have done. Is that part of the trend we’re seeing, or just a coincidence? It’s too soon to tell, but I do think it is worth noting as something to watch.

 

[SA16]

If we're going to characterize it this way, and I think that's valid, then it's mostly an issue of powerplay time we're talking about.

At that point, I think it's fair to ask why Lafreniere and Kakko aren't seeing powerplay time in any meaningful way, especially when our powerplay can't score at all.

Also if your mean in 23.7 ES points, Kakko is behind that in a not-insignificant way.

There's no real need to ask why. The answer is obvious. Kreider, Panarin, Zibanejad, Fox are fixtures on PP1. That leaves one spot. I don't like Strome there. Buchnevich is a better option than Kakko/Lafreniere. The coach is trying to win games. He plays the better players there. There is always a disconnect between ownership, management, and coaching in these scenarios. Why would the coach play a worse player there which then reduces his chance to win which then increases his chance to get fired?

 

[RGY]

Smh dear lord... I do not need Kakko and Lafreniere to be f***ing Brett Howden.... I need them to keep focusing on their strengths that got them to be top picks in the NHL draft and that is offense. I need them to produce like top picks at the NHL level. I dont need them trying to become Selke level defensive forwards, buying into a team system (and a garbage one at that).

FFS these kids need to be all over the scoresheet and it aint happening under this clown.

 

[Edge]

What's even the argument? David Quinn is a good coach and everyone else is the problem? Everyone doing good is because of Quinn.... they doing bad? not his fault. Kids are struggling because they're not ready? Our offensive gameplan is just not being executed by everyone? The middle of the ice is vacated by players choice? Our Powerplay, is the players again? We're flat to start because of the vets? Our transition sucks because we're youngest team in the league?

The list goes on.... there's an excuse for everything.

Not everything is his fault but there are some glaring issues that are.

When we dive into the numbers, are the kids struggling or are they performing on par with some of their contemporaries in recent years, especially when you adjust for ES usage.

Because the deeper one dives into the numbers, the less of an outlier these kids look like over the last three years or so.

Now that’s not a pardon for DQ, but I think it provides some interesting context.

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

Good discussion and good points all around @Edge and @Machinehead.

To make a one off cherry picked comment, I am way more concerned with Kakko’s lack of production in year 2 than Lafreniere’s production in year 1. Though his underlying metrics and eye test is certainly much improved. I am finding myself losing confidence that he can become an elite scoring option the way we all expected him to.

Edit and also, just don’t see how it is defensible that these kids but especially Kakko playing at his best haven’t gotten rotations in PP1. PP1 has not delivered. Forcing one timers to Zibanejad is not working. To me that seems like a really fair and obvious criticism of Quinn.

 

[Edge]

Smh dear lord... I do not need Kakko and Lafreniere to be f***ing Brett Howden.... I need them to keep focusing on their strengths that got them to be top picks in the NHL draft and that is offense. I need them to produce like top picks at the NHL level. I dont need them to be trying to become Selke level defensive forwards, buying into a team system (and a garbage one at that).

FFS these kids need to be all over the scoresheet and it aint happening under this clown.

Looking at the last few years, there’s a lot to be said about how much young talent benefits from PP usage. That’s where the stats get a big boost - and potentially the confidence as well.

 

[Profet]

I'm still of the belief that Quinn doesn't coach any particular offensive system.

There is a neutral zone transition plan, and its worked fairly well (eye test). But I don't think there is any such system for what to do in the offensive zone. And I think that is really detrimental to the younger players.

If they don't score off the rush or a very talented one on one play... it just doesn't happen.

 

[Machinehead]

There's no real need to ask why. The answer is obvious. Kreider, Panarin, Zibanejad, Fox are fixtures on PP1. That leaves one spot. I don't like Strome there. Buchnevich is a better option than Kakko/Lafreniere. The coach is trying to win games. He plays the better players there. There is always a disconnect between ownership, management, and coaching in these scenarios. Why would the coach play a worse player there which then reduces his chance to win which then increases his chance to get fired?

Why would a team, who sent out a letter basically saying "buckle up, we're about to lose a lot" then turn around and fire a coach just for losing games? Shouldn't the front office be aware that there's more to this than just wins and losses?

You said yourself there's a disconnect. The front office wants development, the coach wants to win. Ok, all coaches want to win, I get that part of it, but why would that same front office that wants development judge him just on wins and losses?

That's a contradiction in your statement.

 

[Edge]

Good discussion and good points all around @Edge and @Machinehead.

To make a one off cherry picked comment, I am way more concerned with Kakko’s lack of production in year 2 than Lafreniere’s production in year 1. Though his underlying metrics and eye test is certainly much improved. I am finding myself losing confidence that he can become an elite scoring option the way we all expected him to.

And to that, I wonder if I’d be more concerned if his peers were soaring through the clouds while he remained grounded. But I don’t know if that’s happening either. The underlying data shows that the points should be coming. Right now I feel like that’s reason to be optimistic. If they were in the toilet, perhaps.

But right before COVID we were talking about much of a force he was becoming out there, with some people giving all the credit to Finland.

So that’s where I kind of feel like the conversations can come down to who you ask, on the day you ask, with a wide range of takes. But the data that’s been pushed for years on here when we’ve shit on players basically shows that he’s played well and the points should follow.

 

[Machinehead]

Good discussion and good points all around @Edge and @Machinehead.

To make a one off cherry picked comment, I am way more concerned with Kakko’s lack of production in year 2 than Lafreniere’s production in year 1. Though his underlying metrics and eye test is certainly much improved. I am finding myself losing confidence that he can become an elite scoring option the way we all expected him to.

Edit and also, just don’t see how it is defensible that these kids but especially Kakko playing at his best haven’t gotten rotations in PP1. PP1 has not delivered. Forcing one timers to Zibanejad is not working. To me that seems like a really fair and obvious criticism of Quinn.

Yeah, I agree 100%.

Lafreniere's thing looks more and more like we just don't use him on the powerplay the more you dig into the numbers. We probably should imo but that's a whole other discussion.

Kakko is now more than 10 points off those averages that Edge posted. I get what Edge is saying about that second year bug and how Kakko is actually improving his overall game, but his production has gone down in the second year just like the rest.

I'm not saying defense and possession don't matter at all, but I've said it before, I didn't want Bennett or Nichushkin with that pick.

 

[Edge]

Why would a team, who sent out a letter basically saying "buckle up, we're about to lose a lot" then turn around and fire a coach just for losing games? Shouldn't the front office be aware that there's more to this than just wins and losses?

You said yourself there's a disconnect. The front office wants development, the coach wants to win. Ok, all coaches want to win, I get that part of it, but why would that same front office that wants development judge him just on wins and losses?

That's a contradiction in your statement.

I’m somewhat guessing here, but my initial reaction would be that the Rangers tend to more or less like the overall games they are seeing from Kakko and Lafreniere and view the points as secondary at this point.

That kind of goes back to my earlier comment that the point totals seem to a hotter topic on here than they are from the team, or even in conversations people with other teams are having.

Now, to your point, at some point they’re gonna have to get these kids into situations where they can benefit from the special teams and certain situations as well.

Does that come for Kakko after a Buch trade on the right side?

Does it come for Laf after a Strome trade?

I honestly don’t know, but “maybe”.