Player Discussion Darnell Nurse is a #1 dman

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Winner winner chicken dinner!

 

[bobbythebrain]

Holland made some bad signings but this one was by far the worst one.

Not really. Bridging him made the right sense ATT as we tried to compete, and he never played like a top pair guy.
Then covid, the CHL and covid relief $ happened and other GMs went crazy with d contracts.
You can't blame Holland for that.

 

[North]

Not really. Bridging him made the right sense ATT as we tried to compete, and he never played like a top pair guy.
Then covid, the CHL and covid relief $ happened and other GMs went crazy with d contracts.
You can't blame Holland for that.

We absolutely can. He made the mistake of believing Nurse was in Seth Jones territory. He never was.

 

[McBeastMode]

Just remember.....playoff Nurse is much, much worse. Good times ahead

 

[K1984]

Not really. Bridging him made the right sense ATT as we tried to compete, and he never played like a top pair guy.
Then covid, the CHL and covid relief $ happened and other GMs went crazy with d contracts.
You can't blame Holland for that.

You can blame him for signing him a year ahead of schedule for no reason. It would have been clear by November the next year that he wasn't worth that and his contract would have come down, but instead Holland decided to do it when the market was wacky.

 

[oobga]

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Winner winner chicken dinner!

Beating Huberbeau is kind of insane.

 

[Lay Z Boy GM]

You can blame him for signing him a year ahead of schedule for no reason. It would have been clear by November the next year that he wasn't worth that and his contract would have come down, but instead Holland decided to do it when the market was wacky.

Holland was actually worried Nurse would be worth 10+ lol

That really bothered me at the time.. just wait. He’s peaking in value, it’s not the time to buy. This is basic stuff and I’m not that smart. Hope holland is enjoying his 25 million.

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Winner winner chicken dinner!

We need a crying or vomiting emoji

 

[K1984]

Holland was actually worried Nurse would be worth 10+ lol

That really bothered me at the time.. just wait. He’s peaking in value, it’s not the time to buy. This is basic stuff and I’m not that smart. Hope holland is enjoying his 25 million.


We need a crying or vomiting emoji

The thing is at the time it could have been seen as a possible risk.

He was objectively really good in the COVID season and very good in the playoffs. In theory, one could think that he took a step that year, and might consolidate and build on those gains and be seen as a true, legit #1 the next year. It still didn't make sense to jump the gun re-signing him though even if that ended up being the case. If he's worth $10 and legit, then oh well we put ourselves $850k backwards by not getting it done sooner. If he stinks, like he does/did, then you pretty quickly blow a massive hole in your salary structure, which we did.

 

[Drivesaitl]

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Winner winner chicken dinner!

It wasn't me with the EK vote. I don't get to vote. haha. How is Petey not in this? Vancouver left coast favoritism. They guy should be top two. Petersson screams out as overpaid.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Beating Huberbeau is kind of insane.

What a hot race. Uh oh, Hubby scored.

jk aside a lot of players on lists like these had fall offs post pay. This includes Nurse. At one time it was viewed by this org that Nurse would or could be a franchise D. Worth noting as well that the two contracts prior to the big pay day were bridge show me contracts where Nurse showed.

Thing is there is no standardized testing or assessment or tool of any kind that determines whether a player will continue to bring it after their home run contract or be "now I'm rich and I can sit" about it. In business and in life you can't differentiate those with endless drive from those that got the big pay day and are never the same.

I think we all recognize this, just saying it.

 

[Stealth1616]

Title of this thread desperately needs to be updated

 

[Senor Catface]

Title of this thread desperately needs to be updated

To be fair, it doesn't say in which league.

 

[bucks_oil]

The thing is at the time it could have been seen as a possible risk.

He was objectively really good in the COVID season and very good in the playoffs. In theory, one could think that he took a step that year, and might consolidate and build on those gains and be seen as a true, legit #1 the next year. It still didn't make sense to jump the gun re-signing him though even if that ended up being the case. If he's worth $10 and legit, then oh well we put ourselves $850k backwards by not getting it done sooner. If he stinks, like he does/did, then you pretty quickly blow a massive hole in your salary structure, which we did.

I agree with this. The retroscope is missing the fact that he was legitimately in the Norris conversation that year, led the league in goals, led the league in minutes played, was near the top of the league in EV goal share. Nearly EVERY objective metric had Nurse as a top-10 defender on a team that was clearly ascending.

So there was a real risk that he'd further solidify or even improve his value.

However that final statement was ONLY true if you felt that top-10 defenders were going to be worth more than $10M. I mean how much headroom was there? What was the REAL risk of waiting? If Nurse was negotiating for $8M vs $10M if we wait... ok... you sign him. But 9.25 vs 10.5? Really?

It isn't as much that Holland misread Nurse's relative value... in my mind his biggest blunder was misreading the overall D-man market... What was the evidence that it would continue to skyrocket?

Another HUGE factor which is overlooked was the McD effect. Lowetide did a good piece on it in the Athletic a couple of weeks ago. The gist of it is:
1) Nurse was paired at the hip with McD during the Canada-season. He played amazing. He STILL, to this day, puts up amazing numbers when he's with McD, but struggles when he doesn't have that type of all-world transition player. Why? He's not a great outlet passer. He's good at getting possession, he's great at skating it out, but he's not a great outlet passer. Put him with guys where he's forced to carry or pass himself and he can get hemmed in.
2) Bouchard is not influenced by McD... he's good with and without him. Why? Unlike Nurse he's a phenomenal passer. Yet, last year this was underutilized because he was played the majority of the time with McD

SOLUTION: Play Nurse with McD again and Bouchard with Draisaitl. Problem solved.

 

[K1984]

I agree with this. The retroscope is missing the fact that he was legitimately in the Norris conversation that year, led the league in goals, led the league in minutes played, was near the top of the league in EV goal share. Nearly EVERY objective metric had Nurse as a top-10 defender on a team that was clearly ascending.

So there was a real risk that he'd further solidify or even improve his value.

However that final statement was ONLY true if you felt that top-10 defenders were going to be worth more than $10M. I mean how much headroom was there? What was the REAL risk of waiting? If Nurse was negotiating for $8M vs $10M if we wait... ok... you sign him. But 9.25 vs 10.5? Really?

It isn't as much that Holland misread Nurse's relative value... in my mind his biggest blunder was misreading the overall D-man market... What was the evidence that it would continue to skyrocket?

Another HUGE factor which is overlooked was the McD effect. Lowetide did a good piece on it in the Athletic a couple of weeks ago. The gist of it is:
1) Nurse was paired at the hip with McD during the Canada-season. He played amazing. He STILL, to this day, puts up amazing numbers when he's with McD, but struggles when he doesn't have that type of all-world transition player. Why? He's not a great outlet passer. He's good at getting possession, he's great at skating it out, but he's not a great outlet passer. Put him with guys where he's forced to carry or pass himself and he can get hemmed in.
2) Bouchard is not influenced by McD... he's good with and without him. Why? Unlike Nurse he's a phenomenal passer. Yet, last year this was underutilized because he was played the majority of the time with McD

SOLUTION: Play Nurse with McD again and Bouchard with Draisaitl. Problem solved.

I think we should go with this next game and see how it goes 5v5.

Skinner - McDavid - Hyman
Nurse - Stecher/Dermott

RNH - Draisaitl - Arvidsson
Ekholm - Bouchard

This staff, and prior staffs, get too caught up in "can't break up that line or group of 5, look at the results!" and it almost always is connected to McDavid. Yes, it's great that the 5some of McDavid, RNH, Hyman, Ekholm and Bouchard can be unstoppable at times. However, that doesn't matter if the 2nd line isn't functioning right, or the Nurse pair gets blasted playing with any other player. I can settle for slightly less production from the top group if it means that the second defence pair doesn't get torched and the second line functions better. McDavid is unique in that he can simultaneously solve problems by himself, time to leverage that when things aren't going right outside the top line/pair.

On this note as well, McDavid (for whatever reason) and RNH don't like to/won't shoot the puck. Skinner had 9 shot attempts last game. Get him on that line and it will disrupt their desire to cycle for 45 seconds before they think about making any play to the net.

 

[Stoneman89]

The year that got Nurse the big contract was the Canadian Covid year, where he piled up a ton of goals and points against a sad sack Ottawa team and a couple others. So, basically, a 6 team season sample. Holland should have been smarter and realized it was flawed in so many ways.