The thing is at the time it could have been seen as a possible risk.
He was objectively really good in the COVID season and very good in the playoffs. In theory, one could think that he took a step that year, and might consolidate and build on those gains and be seen as a true, legit #1 the next year. It still didn't make sense to jump the gun re-signing him though even if that ended up being the case. If he's worth $10 and legit, then oh well we put ourselves $850k backwards by not getting it done sooner. If he stinks, like he does/did, then you pretty quickly blow a massive hole in your salary structure, which we did.
I agree with this. The retroscope is missing the fact that he was legitimately in the Norris conversation that year, led the league in goals, led the league in minutes played, was near the top of the league in EV goal share. Nearly EVERY objective metric had Nurse as a top-10 defender on a team that was clearly ascending.
So there was a real risk that he'd further solidify or even improve his value.
However that final statement was ONLY true if you felt that top-10 defenders were going to be worth more than $10M. I mean how much headroom was there? What was the REAL risk of waiting? If Nurse was negotiating for $8M vs $10M if we wait... ok... you sign him. But 9.25 vs 10.5? Really?
It isn't as much that Holland misread Nurse's relative value... in my mind his biggest blunder was misreading the overall D-man market... What was the evidence that it would continue to skyrocket?
Another HUGE factor which is overlooked was the McD effect. Lowetide did a good piece on it in the Athletic a couple of weeks ago. The gist of it is:
1) Nurse was paired at the hip with McD during the Canada-season. He played amazing. He
STILL, to this day, puts up amazing numbers when he's with McD, but struggles when he doesn't have that type of all-world transition player. Why? He's not a great outlet passer. He's good at getting possession, he's great at skating it out, but he's not a great outlet passer. Put him with guys where he's forced to carry or pass himself and he can get hemmed in.
2) Bouchard is not influenced by McD... he's good with and without him. Why? Unlike Nurse he's a phenomenal passer. Yet, last year this was underutilized because he was played the majority of the time with McD
SOLUTION: Play Nurse with McD again and Bouchard with Draisaitl. Problem solved.