D Tom Willander - Boston University, NCAA (2023, 11th, VAN)

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Willander’s league vs tournament play is what makes him riskier for the top-15. Who will he be as a pro? I don’t doubt he’ll be very good at BU and develop into an NHL defenseman, but what about the players he’s jumping over to go top-10 or top-15? Too risky IMO.

Call it a pet peeve, but a late riser should not crack a top-15 of a deep draft based off the last tournament and combine interviews.

In terms of Swedish defensemen, one example is Gabriel Carlsson. Big defensive defenseman. Was nowhere near Oliver Kylington in terms of hype and skill set but Kylington had a bad tournament or two and Carlsson didn’t, so he got jumped late and got passed over for Carlsson. There are other late-riser examples of this too (Lagesson, Carl Dahlstrom, Rasmus Bengtsson, Lundkvist also come to mind). But none if these guys went top-15, which is kinda my point.

This is just a theory right now, but I think that with enough digging through past rankings (pre-mid-end of season) that if you were to look at who started out lower and ended up going higher in the draft you can point to some of the more successful players from those drafts.

Here's just a few examples: Beniers was rated a mid-late first before the 21 draft (2020 pre-season draft rankings) but goes 2nd overall and has a great rookie season. Same draft, McTavish was thought of as a late 1st for much of the year and slowly worked his way up over the season to go 3rd to the Ducks then also had a solid rookie year. Seider, same in 2019. Stutzle started out the 2019-20 season rated near the back half of the 1st but worked his way up over the course of the year, was picked 3rd overall and is easily #1 in a redraft. Hell, going back to 2011 Schiefele was a shocker being picked at 7th.

I'd argue that his rise through the year from mid-late 2nd round pick to early-mid 1st should be a strong indicator of future success.

 

[Castle8130]

This is just a theory right now, but I think that with enough digging through past rankings (pre-mid-end of season) that if you were to look at who started out lower and ended up going higher in the draft you can point to some of the more successful players from those drafts.

Here's just a few examples: Beniers was rated a mid-late first before the 21 draft (2020 pre-season draft rankings) but goes 2nd overall and has a great rookie season. Same draft, McTavish was thought of as a late 1st for much of the year and slowly worked his way up over the season to go 3rd to the Ducks then also had a solid rookie year. Seider, same in 2019. Stutzle started out the 2019-20 season rated near the back half of the 1st but worked his way up over the course of the year, was picked 3rd overall and is easily #1 in a redraft. Hell, going back to 2011 Schiefele was a shocker being picked at 7th.

I'd argue that his rise through the year from mid-late 2nd round pick to early-mid 1st should be a strong indicator of future success.

This is the exact reason scouts love improvement. Willander was one of the most improved players over the past two years. This is the reason I'm not afraid to stick my neck out for late risers.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

This is just a theory right now, but I think that with enough digging through past rankings (pre-mid-end of season) that if you were to look at who started out lower and ended up going higher in the draft you can point to some of the more successful players from those drafts.

Here's just a few examples: Beniers was rated a mid-late first before the 21 draft (2020 pre-season draft rankings) but goes 2nd overall and has a great rookie season. Same draft, McTavish was thought of as a late 1st for much of the year and slowly worked his way up over the season to go 3rd to the Ducks then also had a solid rookie year. Seider, same in 2019. Stutzle started out the 2019-20 season rated near the back half of the 1st but worked his way up over the course of the year, was picked 3rd overall and is easily #1 in a redraft. Hell, going back to 2011 Schiefele was a shocker being picked at 7th.

I'd argue that his rise through the year from mid-late 2nd round pick to early-mid 1st should be a strong indicator of future success.

We’re talking about Swedish defensemen’s recent bust rate, specifically defensemen drafted in the first two rounds in the last decade, and beyond if necessary.

Swedish dmen make up about 70 percent of all top-20 ranked Euro defensemen (about 80+ ranked since 2008) on CSB’s lists dating all the way back to 2008. Same goes for The Hockey News rankings. That is a massive 15-year sample size of top-rated defense prospects.

38/56 top-ranked Swedish dmen between 2008-2022 went in Rounds 1-2.

From 2007 down to the late 1990s, the Russians and Czech/Slovaks were the majority and Swedish dman were a significant minority — only three ranked in the top-20 from 1998-2005 compared to 24 from 2008-2013 and 36 from 2014-2022. Massive, massive shift. They’re the dominant group by far.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

I have no dog in this fight but as an outsider that loves reading posters views on prospects, yours do seem a bit unfailry jaded towards swedish d-men. You are only focusing on the d-men and pointing out the couple players that went after that hit. Problem is, You could do that for almost any country/position if you cherry pick enough of a sample size.

In the last 5 years there have only been 4 swedish d drafted top 10. Simon Edvinsson,Philip Broberg, Rasmus Dahlin, and Adam Boqvist.

Edvinsson today still goes around 6th in a re-draft. Its super early to be judging the 2021 draft to be fair.

Broberg would definitely fall out of the top 10, but you're making his selection out to be much worse than it is. Looking at the 2019 draft class, It is extemely weak for d-men and, overall for every position. There are only 3 guys drafted after him that definitively hold more value today; Zegras, Boldy, Caufield. Hard to say Broberg is a bad pick when you pick at 8th and you have a 20/23 chance of picking a player worse than Broberg if you look at the rest of the 23 picks after him. If you were looking to draft a d, Broberg was and still is the BPA d-man.

Dahlin as you've said was a hit.

Boqvist again like Broberg would definitely fall out of the top 10 but is also in a weak draft class in terms of depth. The only d-man taken after him that are head and shoulders better is Noah Dobson, and K'Andre Miller. There's no way anyone could have reasonably taken Miller top 10 given how raw and inexperienced he was. I was a huge fan of his, but even scouts extremely high on him wouldnt have taken him before 15. The bust factor was way too high to take a swing like that. Funny enough, if you look at picks 9-31, Dobson and Miller are the only 2 players in those 23 selections that are clearly ahead of Boqvist today. So there was a 21/23 chance if they selected any other player that went in the first round, they would have a similar level player to Boqvist.

So 2 of the d-men look to be hits. 2 of them had a couple players selected after them turn out to be better, but they still belong in their draft range given the rest of their draft class after them.

The issue looks to be that draft classes have had no depth once picks get towards 8th overall. Overwhelming odds are the pick from 8 onwards is a middling player. That is for every nation and every position, not just Swedish d-men.

Like i could say Finnish forwards are overhyped and arent top 10 worthy let alone top 5. Look at Slafkovsky, Kakko, Kotkaniemi, Laine, and Puljujarvi. 4/5 of them picked top 3 in their drafts and all 5 picked top 5. All would fall in a re-draft with only Laine and Kotkaniemi still being top 10 picks (Slafkovsky too early to tell but def wouldnt be #1, maybe not even top 3).

There’s no bias. It’s an observation from empirical data. More Swedish defensemen get drafted in Rounds 1-2 than any non-N.A. nation since 2008. From this vast majority, there’s a significant bust rate or failure to meet expectations. This result would be verified by any casual re-draft put together by a couple of fans.

The bulk of Swedish defense prospects from Rounds 1-2 would likely go later and forwards (likely NTDP or CHL) would go higher in re-drafts.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

According to CSB and THN, from 2014-2020, Lundkvist, Brannstrom, G. Carlsson, F. Johansson, Norlinder, Grans, and Lagesson were either massive late-season risers or took a big enough jump to be considered one. All 1sts or 2nd at the draft.

Falling were Kylington, Wallinder, L. Carlsson, Bernhardt, Liljegren.

 

[Canuck Luck]

There’s no bias. It’s an observation from empirical data. More Swedish defensemen get drafted in Rounds 1-2 than any non-N.A. nation since 2008. From this vast majority, there’s a significant bust rate or failure to meet expectations. This result would be verified by any casual re-draft put together by a couple of fans.

The bulk of Swedish defense prospects from Rounds 1-2 would likely go later and forwards (likely NTDP or CHL) would go higher in re-drafts.

The same argument can be made for pretty much any league/nation/position. I easily pulled up Finnish forwards at the top of my head over the last 5 years. I'm pretty sure if you look at USHL forwards, they prob would too. I can think of Connor/Boeser/Zegras/Boldy/Caufiled/Hughes/Norris in the last 8 years that were living up to draft position or higher. On the otherhand there's Turcotte/Boucher/Sillinger/Beecher/Wahlstrom/Mittelstadt/Bowers/Tolvanen/Tufte/Bellows/Frederic/White/Roslovic below

25% hit rate in the 1st round

 

[Steve Kournianos]

The same argument can be made for pretty much any league/nation/position. I easily pulled up Finnish forwards at the top of my head over the last 5 years. I'm pretty sure if you look at USHL forwards, they prob would too. I can think of Connor/Boeser/Zegras/Boldy/Caufiled/Hughes/Norris in the last 8 years that were living up to draft position or higher. On the otherhand there's Turcotte/Boucher/Sillinger/Beecher/Wahlstrom/Mittelstadt/Bowers/Tolvanen/Tufte/Bellows/Frederic/White/Roslovic below

25% hit rate in the 1st round

NTDP top-62 forwards have much higher than a 25% hit rate wtf????

2020 Bordeleau, Tuch 0/2
2019 Hughes, Boldy, Zegras, Turcotte, Caufiled, Beecher 4/6
2018 Wahlstrom, Farabee 1/2
2017 Norris 1/1
2016 Keller, Bellows, Frederic 2/3
2015 White, Roslovic, Bracco, Fischer, Greenway 3/5
2014 Larkin/Milano 1/2

12/21 hits or 57 percent hit rate. In Round 1 it’s 11/15 or 73%. Many legit all-stars. No comparison to Swedish dmen in that same timeframe.

 

[Garl]

NTDP top-62 forwards have much higher than a 25% hit rate wtf????

2020 Bordeleau, Tuch 0/2
2019 Hughes, Boldy, Zegras, Turcotte, Caufiled, Beecher 4/6
2018 Wahlstrom, Farabee 1/2
2017 Norris 1/1
2016 Keller, Bellows, Frederic 2/3
2015 White, Roslovic, Bracco, Fischer, Greenway 3/5
2014 Larkin/Milano 1/2

12/21 hits or 57 percent hit rate. In Round 1 it’s 11/15 or 73%. Many legit all-stars. No comparison to Swedish dmen in that same timeframe.

1.Do russian forwards
2.Is it really fair that your list of americans is almost exclusively made of 1st rounders?
3.You said hit rate for swedish defensemen is 25%

2014- Pettersson, Englund, Bergman
2015-Larsson, Carlsson, Andersson, Kylington
2016-
2017-Brannstrom, Liljegren, Lindstrom, Westerlund
2018-Dahlin, Boqvist, Johansson, Lundqvist, Sandin, Ginning, Andersson
2019-Broberg, Soderstrom, Bjornfot, Lundmark, Johansson

Even if we are very harsh, and put 2019 class to miss entirely, it is still smth like 7 hits 16 misses, 7/23 overall which is 30% hit, and if we are honest and only put 2014-2018 classes we have 7/18 which is 40%, and if we only keep 1st rounders it is 4/9, and keep in mind, Kylington, Brannstrom and Lundqvist might pull a Stralman/Forsling

 

[Canuck Luck]

NTDP top-62 forwards have much higher than a 25% hit rate wtf????

2020 Bordeleau, Tuch 0/2
2019 Hughes, Boldy, Zegras, Turcotte, Caufiled, Beecher 4/6
2018 Wahlstrom, Farabee 1/2
2017 Norris 1/1
2016 Keller, Bellows, Frederic 2/3
2015 White, Roslovic, Bracco, Fischer, Greenway 3/5
2014 Larkin/Milano 1/2

12/21 hits or 57 percent hit rate. In Round 1 it’s 11/15 or 73%. Many legit all-stars. No comparison to Swedish dmen in that same timeframe.

Its hard to have an honest conversation when you keep shifting goal posts to suit your narrative.

1. You originally d-men have to be a sure thing top 10-15 picks and swedish d-men get overrated. You used a 3 round sample size listing then to prove that lol.

2. Broberg/Soderstrom/Boqvist/Liljegren/Bjornfoot/Lundqvist/Brannstrom as busts. Fun fact all of those guys at their current age have around the same or more games than Roslovic/Frederic.

3. I said USHL players since we are looking at leagues/nations. You narrowed it down to the best team in the USHL that would increase % if you compare them to the same standards as you are holding swedish d-men. Obviously when the best of the best for an age group generally all join 1 team in a league, it's hit rate is higher. Using just the NTDP is like me using only the Swedish U18 for Swedish D-men.

2019: Pinto, Brink, Firstov, Afanasyev, Mastrosimone
2018: Drury
2017: Mittelstadt, Bowers, Tolvanen, Mismash
2016: Tufte, Morrison, Allison
2015: Connor, Boeser, Forsbacka Karlsson
2014: Tuch, Schmaltz Letunov

You left out 19 USHL players. I can see why you'd only want to do NTDP given majority of these USHL players would fall under bust.

Maybe if you're open to having an honest conversation, where you arent deleting a bunch of busts for whichever league/position we look at as a comparison or shifting goal posts, we can pick this back up

 

[Castle8130]

This annoying debate is derailing the thread a bit.

In other news, I put this kid at 9th oa on my final rankings. He has an insane toolbox and is incredibly smart. The interviews that went public only confirmed this for me. He took it upon himself to go from playing in the SWEHL to Boston because he felt his Swedish team wouldn't dedicate enough time to develop their younger players. The ability to recognize this and follow through with it is telling. It shows he is dedicated to being the best player he can be and will do whatever he needs to do.

The whole Swedish narrative is overblown. I'm only high on Willander for Swedish defenders and can see him being a top pairing guy

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Its hard to have an honest conversation when you keep shifting goal posts to suit your narrative.

1. You originally d-men have to be a sure thing top 10-15 picks and swedish d-men get overrated. You used a 3 round sample size listing then to prove that lol.

2. Broberg/Soderstrom/Boqvist/Liljegren/Bjornfoot/Lundqvist/Brannstrom as busts. Fun fact all of those guys at their current age have around the same or more games than Roslovic/Frederic.

3. I said USHL players since we are looking at leagues/nations. You narrowed it down to the best team in the USHL that would increase % if you compare them to the same standards as you are holding swedish d-men. Obviously when the best of the best for an age group generally all join 1 team in a league, it's hit rate is higher. Using just the NTDP is like me using only the Swedish U18 for Swedish D-men.

2019: Pinto, Brink, Firstov, Afanasyev, Mastrosimone
2018: Drury
2017: Mittelstadt, Bowers, Tolvanen, Mismash
2016: Tufte, Morrison, Allison
2015: Connor, Boeser, Forsbacka Karlsson
2014: Tuch, Schmaltz Letunov

You left out 19 USHL players. I can see why you'd only want to do NTDP given majority of these USHL players would fall under bust.

Maybe if you're open to having an honest conversation, where you arent deleting a bunch of busts for whichever league/position we look at as a comparison or shifting goal posts, we can pick this back up

This USHL forward business is a strawman and doesn’t change the facts — top-20 rated Swedish defensemen between 2014-2020 aren’t hitting and are outperformed by forwards taken after.

Willander was rated No. 12 on the Euro list. That’s why the cohort group is Top-20 ranked Swedish dmen from 2014-2020. I didn’t say 2008-2013 because those were great years for Swedish draft prospects. Hence, the downward trend. No bias. Just a factual observation.

What USHL forwards do has nothing to do with the higher bust rate for recent Swedish defensemen compared to 2008-2013. The data is clear. If anyone is moving goalposts, it’s you — games played isn’t enough. They need to be players drafted high in a re-draft. The only Swedish dmen who go higher or stay the same in a 2014-2020 redraft is Pettersson, Dahlin, Kylington, and Liljegren.

75 percent bust rate. Not good. The 2008-2013 group’s bust rate was far lower and produced future HHOF’ers, all stars, and Norris candidates. All 2014-2020 has is Dahlin.


All that said, I just watched two Willander games against Vaxjo and Orebro and he was sloppy. One game he got beat for a break-in off the opening draw Lol. Lots of blown coverages and indecision.

You guys are getting Button’ed again. Watch the J20 film.

Like I said, risky player. Not top-15 caliber. Great tournaments, so-so league play. All of his assists are handoffs outside two or three exceptions. Grans was the same in his draft year. Nothing creative and not a “shutdown” defender. Willander is two-way with upside at best.

 

[theslatcher]

This USHL forward business is a strawman and doesn’t change the facts — top-20 rated Swedish defensemen between 2014-2020 aren’t hitting and are outperformed by forwards taken after.

Willander was rated No. 12 on the Euro list. That’s why the cohort group is Top-20 ranked Swedish dmen from 2014-2020. I didn’t say 2008-2013 because those were great years for Swedish draft prospects. Hence, the downward trend. No bias. Just a factual observation.

What USHL forwards do has nothing to do with the higher bust rate for recent Swedish defensemen compared to 2008-2013. The data is clear. If anyone is moving goalposts, it’s you — games played isn’t enough. They need to be players drafted high in a re-draft. The only Swedish dmen who go higher or stay the same in a 2014-2020 redraft is Pettersson, Dahlin, Kylington, and Liljegren.

75 percent bust rate. Not good. The 2008-2013 group’s bust rate was far lower and produced future HHOF’ers, all stars, and Norris candidates. All 2014-2020 has is Dahlin.


All that said, I just watched two Willander games against Vaxjo and Orebro and he was sloppy. One game he got beat for a break-in off the opening draw Lol. Lots of blown coverages and indecision.

You guys are getting Button’ed again. Watch the J20 film.

Like I said, risky player. Not top-15 caliber. Great tournaments, so-so league play. All of his assists are handoffs outside two or three exceptions. Grans was the same in his draft year. Nothing creative and not a “shutdown” defender. Willander is two-way with upside at best.

If you presented your opinion in a decent manner maybe people could overlook your bias.

Between 2014, & 2016 + 2020 the highest Swedish dman selected was #27. So, you can scratch those years when it comes to discussing players busting.

Which leaves 2017-2019. the 2019's are still under their ELC, and too early to discuss if a player is busting for those years.

In 2017 Brännström would drop (Getting concussed by two dirty Eagles players both headshotting him at the same time didn't help) and Liljegren would stay around the same spot (one could argue like +/- 2 spots)

2018 Dahlin obviously stay at #1, and Boqvist drops 2 spots at most, and at best stays put.

So idk where you pulled that 75% number from. Even if we include 2019 and consider Broberg+Söderström busts, your bust number can at best (for you, that is) go up to 50%.

 

[DFAC]

According to CSB and THN, from 2014-2020, Lundkvist, Brannstrom, G. Carlsson, F. Johansson, Norlinder, Grans, and Lagesson were either massive late-season risers or took a big enough jump to be considered one. All 1sts or 2nd at the draft.

Falling were Kylington, Wallinder, L. Carlsson, Bernhardt, Liljegren.

Not sure what to make of this... both lists are underwhelming

 

[Steve Kournianos]

If you presented your opinion in a decent manner maybe people could overlook your bias.

Between 2014, & 2016 + 2020 the highest Swedish dman selected was #27. So, you can scratch those years when it comes to discussing players busting.

Which leaves 2017-2019. the 2019's are still under their ELC, and too early to discuss if a player is busting for those years.

In 2017 Brännström would drop (Getting concussed by two dirty Eagles players both headshotting him at the same time didn't help) and Liljegren would stay around the same spot (one could argue like +/- 2 spots)

2018 Dahlin obviously stay at #1, and Boqvist drops 2 spots at most, and at best stays put.

So idk where you pulled that 75% number from. Even if we include 2019 and consider Broberg+Söderström busts, your bust number can at best (for you, that is) go up to 50%.

Youre moving the goal posts and making excuses. There’s no bias. It’s a question and an answer, and the answer is validated by facts. Not my problem that you don’t like the results.

A bust is a player not meeting expectations. Brannstrom was expected to be a top-4 defenseman at worst by this point. Ottawa traded Stone to get him. Lundkvist, Carlsson, Johansson, and Larsson were expected to be an NHL defenseman by this point. Boqvist was expected to be a top-pairing defenseman at this point.

Broberg was literally drafted ahead of Zegras. Soderstrom was taken ahead of Boldy and Caufield.

Future stars. Zegras was on the cover of a video game.

Swedish defensemen are not hitting like they used to, and if they do hit, it’s taking longer.

Karlsson, OEL, Hedman, Lindholm, Brodin, Klefbom, etc — all very good top-4 NHL defensemen by the time they were 21-23 and nearly all received Norris votes at one point.

There’s just no way to ignore it or explain it. It’s a trend with the highest-ranked Swedish defensemen. It would be silly for NHL teams to dismiss it.

 

[Castle8130]

Here we go again.... Steven got bored one night and brought back the war on Willander.

Remember, this is the guy who thought Rasmus Dahlin was overrated and stuck his neck out to say that Svechnikov should go no.1 oa. He was also a huge advocate for Zadina and had Veleno over Tkachuk in the same year. He misses a whole lot more than he hits on prospects.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Here we go again.... Steven got bored one night and brought back the war on Willander.

Remember, this is the guy who thought Rasmus Dahlin was overrated and stuck his neck out to say that Svechnikov should go no.1 oa. He was also a huge advocate for Zadina and had Veleno over Tkachuk in the same year. He misses a whole lot more than he hits on prospects.

Ilya Kvochko is gonna make you eat your words, just you wait!

 

[theslatcher]

Youre moving the goal posts and making excuses. There’s no bias. It’s a question and an answer, and the answer is validated by facts. Not my problem that you don’t like the results.

A bust is a player not meeting expectations. Brannstrom was expected to be a top-4 defenseman at worst by this point. Ottawa traded Stone to get him. Lundkvist, Carlsson, Johansson, and Larsson were expected to be an NHL defenseman by this point. Boqvist was expected to be a top-pairing defenseman at this point.

Broberg was literally drafted ahead of Zegras. Soderstrom was taken ahead of Boldy and Caufield.

Future stars. Zegras was on the cover of a video game.

Swedish defensemen are not hitting like they used to, and if they do hit, it’s taking longer.

Karlsson, OEL, Hedman, Lindholm, Brodin, Klefbom, etc — all very good top-4 NHL defensemen by the time they were 21-23 and nearly all received Norris votes at one point.

There’s just no way to ignore it or explain it. It’s a trend with the highest-ranked Swedish defensemen. It would be silly for NHL teams to dismiss it.

Ignoring everything else because I just can't bother:

Is your expectation really from a late 1st for them to be a regular NHL player? And doesn't matter to me when in the timeline of their career that is.

Why do you think that way? I mean idealistically everybody would be picked based on how good they will become, but realistically you have at best a 50/50 chance when it comes to hitting on a late 1st becoming a regular NHLer.

 

[sting101]

Youre moving the goal posts and making excuses. There’s no bias. It’s a question and an answer, and the answer is validated by facts. Not my problem that you don’t like the results.

A bust is a player not meeting expectations. Brannstrom was expected to be a top-4 defenseman at worst by this point. Ottawa traded Stone to get him. Lundkvist, Carlsson, Johansson, and Larsson were expected to be an NHL defenseman by this point. Boqvist was expected to be a top-pairing defenseman at this point.

Broberg was literally drafted ahead of Zegras. Soderstrom was taken ahead of Boldy and Caufield.

Future stars. Zegras was on the cover of a video game.

Swedish defensemen are not hitting like they used to, and if they do hit, it’s taking longer.

Karlsson, OEL, Hedman, Lindholm, Brodin, Klefbom, etc — all very good top-4 NHL defensemen by the time they were 21-23 and nearly all received Norris votes at one point.

There’s just no way to ignore it or explain it. It’s a trend with the highest-ranked Swedish defensemen. It would be silly for NHL teams to dismiss it.

What the F does being Swedish have to do with Willander and how he is perceived? And what exactly or how are you implying teams quantify your assertion that this is a "trend that should not be ignored"

Maybe i missed the discussion but is your take that he is being over valued due to being from Sweden? Like is this really a thing in scouting agencies that they would take all the playing data and viewings and add some kind of intangible factor because of the country of birth?

 

[sting101]

Carlsson Larsson vs Juulsen Roy
Brannstrom Liljegren vs Valimaki Vaakanainen
Boqvist vs Bouchard/Dobson
Johansson Lundqvist Sandin vs Bernard-Docker Beaudin Samuelsson

like how the hell is the results of the above suppose to mean anything regarding Willander unless you perceive that mid level defense prospects are not returning much on the investment at this point in the first 5 yrs.

Mid to late 1st round picks are 50% busts. It's also fair to say that defense unlike forwards who derive most their value from scoring (which is more innate when they become NHLers) will need more time to acquire the savvy timing and consistency that puts them near their peak values as defenseman in high leverage minute situations.

There might be a bit of a reaching trend by teams to try and acquire top4 D through the draft because they are so hard to acquire via trade especially before they become UFA aged and extremely expensive but what a strange stance to look at a nation and what has happened and come to a conclusion that Swedish defenseman are overrated.

 

[ZDH]

Benson, Leonard and Reinbacher will all be available at 9 and Yzerman will end up taking Willander lol

Rogle? Check.

Get him boys.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Ignoring everything else because I just can't bother:

Is your expectation really from a late 1st for them to be a regular NHL player? And doesn't matter to me when in the timeline of their career that is.

Why do you think that way? I mean idealistically everybody would be picked based on how good they will become, but realistically you have at best a 50/50 chance when it comes to hitting on a late 1st becoming a regular NHLer.

They hit higher from 2008-2013.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Carlsson Larsson vs Juulsen Roy
Brannstrom Liljegren vs Valimaki Vaakanainen
Boqvist vs Bouchard/Dobson
Johansson Lundqvist Sandin vs Bernard-Docker Beaudin Samuelsson

like how the hell is the results of the above suppose to mean anything regarding Willander unless you perceive that mid level defense prospects are not returning much on the investment at this point in the first 5 yrs.

Mid to late 1st round picks are 50% busts. It's also fair to say that defense unlike forwards who derive most their value from scoring (which is more innate when they become NHLers) will need more time to acquire the savvy timing and consistency that puts them near their peak values as defenseman in high leverage minute situations.

There might be a bit of a reaching trend by teams to try and acquire top4 D through the draft because they are so hard to acquire via trade especially before they become UFA aged and extremely expensive but what a strange stance to look at a nation and what has happened and come to a conclusion that Swedish defenseman are overrated.

It was an observation someone made. I looked into it. He was correct. Swedish dmen aren’t hitting like they used to.

Sandin-Pelikka isn’t overrated. I’ll still be watching his development because of the trend, but he’s worthy of a top-10 pick. Not saying I’d rank him there, but he deserves it. Boils down to preference.

Willander is overrated. High upside, high risk. Based on this thread, sounds like very little was watched of his J20 season and all assessments are from tournaments because they were televised (with Button’s short-sample hyperbole for analysis) and anybody can watch them. That’s a slippery slope.

Vancouver fans have been buying what the media says. Other media piggy back and you get the echo chamber. I recommend watching the J20 games. Not that expensive.

Again, it’s a trend. Dismissing it won’t change it. Just have to see how it ends. This happened with Russian dmen from 1994 well into the 2000s. Nothing biased. Just cyclical.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Ilya Kvochko is gonna make you eat your words, just you wait!

Good player. Had him as a third rounder last year. Kantserov’s center.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Just want to reiterate that I think Willander is first-round caliber and deserves to be a top-32 pick. No denying that. His league play was very good all things considered. But top-15 this particular draft required more than that. He wasn’t a team MVP and the team itself was average and got lit up until they got hot and the Jonsson kid stopped everything. Willander was 12th in Sodra defense scoring, 8th in Top-10, which is good, but Sandin-Pelikka was 2nd in Norra (1st in goals) and 4th in p/g in Top 10, which is elite-level for a draft year.

My issue isn’t with Tom Willander the player as much as Button, TSN, the mainstream media peddling narratives when they didn’t put in the work. Those that do the work and actively scout sometimes get sucked in by the hype and change their rankings because they don’t wanna deal with the public backlash. Happened to me with Puljujarvi and I said never again.

Look at Bjarnason. The media is in love with that kid. Fluff piece after fluff piece, but not a single mention of his 15-game meltdown late in the season and all the blocker-side goals he whiffed on — .840 save percentage over his final 15 games and in the Dub it was facing 20 shots or less.

Meanwhile, Fowler destroyed the USHL this season. Won the WJAC. Clark Cup MVP. Allowed 1 goal or less in 7 of 9 playoff games. Led the USHL in the regular season in wins, GAA, sv%, and shutouts lol. Where are his stories?

Button had Bjarnason 23 and no Fowler in his top 100.

Some of us literally watch and monitor these draft classes all day for 12 months. Doesn’t mean we’re right. But beats the heck out not knowing at all.

 

[theslatcher]

They hit higher from 2008-2013.

They sure hit higher with their ZERO late 1st round dmen picks during that period.

Stop acting obtuse and answer the question I presented instead.