D Tom Willander - Boston University, NCAA (2023, 11th, VAN)

[NTDP]

Irrelevant. Landeskog stopped being a riser by midseason. He was a lock for the top of the draft for 6-7 months. Willander was a late-1st at best for 4/5 of the season and is now considered top 10 because of an April tournament and the combine. Apples and oranges.

I know the April U-18's get the recent hype. But I've said before I've thought Willander was one of the top D available after I saw him live at the U-18 5 Nations in Plymouth. I thought he was better than ASP there. Loved how he moved with the puck and I wrote in my notes no one really beat him 1v1.

Also I understand I didn't see him in the J20 as you did, but through 3 tournaments that's about 15 viewings. I know Button seems to fixate on a prospect and talk about him most of the tournament, but with Willander I think he's legit.

 

[95snipes]

I know the April U-18's get the recent hype. But I've said before I've thought Willander was one of the top D available after I saw him live at the U-18 5 Nations in Plymouth. I thought he was better than ASP there. Loved how he moved with the puck and I wrote in my notes no one really beat him 1v1.

Also I understand I didn't see him in the J20 as you did, but through 3 tournaments that's about 15 viewings. I know Button seems to fixate on a prospect and talk about him most of the tournament, but with Willander I think he's legit.

Same thing at 4 nations in February too. I have the exact same scouting report - moves the puck well and doesn't get beat.

J20 he showed less offense and was more risk adverse than with the national team from my viewings. Not sure if that's a system thing. Either way, you're not drafting him to run your power play, you're drafting him to eat 25 minutes a night and tilt the ice which I absolutely believe he can do.

 

[CutOnDime97]

Really stood out to me at the U18s.

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

There are four U18 tournaments every year. In 2020 there were three.

Point stands. Swedish defensemen have not lived up to expectations except Dahlin and Sandin. Maybe Liljegren but he went from a potential top-5 pick to a middle pairing in the NHL.

Even still, that’s a high rate of underperformers from guys taken in R1. Facts, not opinion.

You missed Rasmus Andersson, but what does nationality have to do with it anyways?

Would u not take Michkov b/c previous high Russian forwards haven't worked out?

Sweden is a hockey power, there may be better periods than others but they are always going to produce good players. USA went through a period of not many amazing C's (now they have a ton), Canada is going through a period of not many amazing goalies. It's not like Sweden has never produced good defenseman. Look at 08-12 drafts & the great run they had.

This is about analyzing individuals anyways not passports. If he has an NHL game he has an NHL game.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

I was saying the draft prospects such as Willander
haven’t played in a month but keep rising or falling. Not NHL players.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

I know the April U-18's get the recent hype. But I've said before I've thought Willander was one of the top D available after I saw him live at the U-18 5 Nations in Plymouth. I thought he was better than ASP there. Loved how he moved with the puck and I wrote in my notes no one really beat him 1v1.

Also I understand I didn't see him in the J20 as you did, but through 3 tournaments that's about 15 viewings. I know Button seems to fixate on a prospect and talk about him most of the tournament, but with Willander I think he's legit.

I like Willander and both his league play and tournaments have been good. Just not a top-10 pick in a draft loaded with five-star forwards who produced dominant seasons in league play. Neither is ASP or Gulyayev or Simashev. Reinbacher the only one justifiable and even that’s pushing it.

The Willander top-10 hype is manufactured and not a byproduct of anything but a short late-season tournament and the combine. At least the Broberg hype ran wire to wire.

Always so weird when this happens so close to the draft. It’s like people get bored or are too scared to have the same list for more than two months.

 

[Castle8130]

I like Willander and both his league play and tournaments have been good. Just not a top-10 pick in a draft loaded with five-star forwards who produced dominant seasons in league play. Neither is ASP or Gulyayev or Simashev. Reinbacher the only one justifiable and even that’s pushing it.

The Willander top-10 hype is manufactured and not a byproduct of anything but a short late-season tournament and the combine. At least the Broberg hype ran wire to wire.

Always so weird when this happens so close to the draft. It’s like people get bored or are too scared to have the same list for more than two months.

I think there are many different opinions on Willander as a player.

Some would take Willander over a player like Benson in a heartbeat. Some will take Simashev 10 spots higher than Willander.

I don't think there has ever been a consensus on the defense in this draft class. Especially when there are many flaws in the forwards expected to be drafted in the 6-20 range.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

You missed Rasmus Andersson, but what does nationality have to do with it anyways?

Would u not take Michkov b/c previous high Russian forwards haven't worked out?

Sweden is a hockey power, there may be better periods than others but they are always going to produce good players. USA went through a period of not many amazing C's (now they have a ton), Canada is going through a period of not many amazing goalies. It's not like Sweden has never produced good defenseman. Look at 08-12 drafts & the great run they had.

This is about analyzing individuals anyways not passports. If he has an NHL game he has an NHL game.

Just pointed out a fact. There’s no denying that recent classes of Swedish defenseman were overhyped because of tournaments and haven’t really met expectations. Doesn’t mean they’ll all become future busts, but many in recent years have. Just means that they get more attention because of tournaments and less from league play. Their top defensemen dating back to 2013 or 2014 haven’t been hitting outside of a few exceptions. Different story with Swedish forwards in that same timeframe like Lindholm, Raymond, Nylander, EP, JEEK.

Maybe they turn it around with Wallinder, Edvinsson, ASP, Willander, but the risk remains higher.

And Michkov is a generational talent. Similar to Dahlin. Hype was warranted and justified years before draft.

 

[GermanSpitfire]

I like Willander and both his league play and tournaments have been good. Just not a top-10 pick in a draft loaded with five-star forwards who produced dominant seasons in league play. Neither is ASP or Gulyayev or Simashev. Reinbacher the only one justifiable and even that’s pushing it.

The Willander top-10 hype is manufactured and not a byproduct of anything but a short late-season tournament and the combine. At least the Broberg hype ran wire to wire.

Always so weird when this happens so close to the draft. It’s like people get bored or are too scared to have the same list for more than two months.

I find the “dissapointing” Swedish defenders as of late have been smaller, more skilled offensive defenders - teams around the league were chasing an Erik Karlsson for a few years there.

Adam Boqvist, Victor Soderstrom, Erik Brannstrom, Nils Lundqvist are all examples of this prototype.

Swedish defenders like Willander haven’t really gone particularly high in the draft - only ones I can think of that went in lottery positions are Jonas Brodie, Ekman-Larsson and Edvinsson. and they’re all closer to what I think Willander brings that an Adam Boqvist.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Underperformers in the first round are Carlsson, Larsson, both taken late, Brannstrom and maybe Lundqvist. And well Johansson, but as I have said, was a weird pick.
As i have said, 2019 draftees are just very early to judge for D.

For russian forwards in the same timefrime underperformers would be Y.Svechnikov, Guryanov, Rubtsov, Kostin, Kravtsov, Denisenko, Podklolzin

For canadian defensemen: Juulsen, Bean, Fabbro, Stanley, Cholowski, Johansen, Foote, Merlkey, Smith, Bernard-Docker, Beaudin

US forwards: White, Brown, Kunin, Bellows, Jones, Tufte, Frederic, Yamamoto, Poehling, O'Brien

It’s the players passed over for Swedish defensemen in Round 1 or 2 that makes them riskier, but it could be a cycle. Boqvist is well below Bouchard and Dobson. Broberg will never impact like Zegras. Lundkvist already surpassed by Berggren. Soderstrom is not worth more than Boldy. Grans was massively overhyped. Again, it’s a trend you can’t ignore and just dismiss as coincidence.

I fully admit I used to fall for the hype (except Broberg and Lundkvist). But you’re looking at only a 25% hit rate with these top Swedish defenders in recent years. And by hit, I mean just becoming full-time, full-season NHL defensemen, let alone all-stars. And by top, I mean 1st rounders or the first ones picked.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

I find the “dissapointing” Swedish defenders as of late have been smaller, more skilled offensive defenders - teams around the league were chasing an Erik Karlsson for a few years there.

Adam Boqvist, Victor Soderstrom, Erik Brannstrom, Nils Lundqvist are all examples of this prototype.

Swedish defenders like Willander haven’t really gone particularly high in the draft - only ones I can think of that went in lottery positions are Jonas Brodie, Ekman-Larsson and Edvinsson. and they’re all closer to what I think Willander brings that an Adam Boqvist.

I agree but there still is a layer of risk that is added from this unexpected phenomenon. Even Broberg was a GM’s dream — big, fast, physical, offensive minded and a shooter.

My only concern with Willander centers of over-aggressiveness. You rarely see that from Swedish defensemen in tournaments, which is part of why Broberg was so hyped. But in league play it was costly at times.

Again, there’s no shame in taking him in the 20’s. Very intriguing prospect and a high ceiling.

But top-10 talk, best defenseman in the draft after one tournament???

The definition of nonsense, and all from recency bias.

 

[Baaaaaaaaaaaaah]

Wonder how much of his Canadian years/coaching are coming through in his play. If I recall he left Alberta pretty young.

 

[theslatcher]

Wonder how much of his Canadian years/coaching are coming through in his play. If I recall he left Alberta pretty young.

AFAIK he spent a summer in Canada. Doubtful the Alberta BI coach made such a lasting impression on him, especially when he has his dad.

 

[The Puckhound]

I get it, but Landeskog was a consensus top-2 pick for most of his draft year. Not doubting Willander's maturity and upside but it would be bananas that one late-season tournament and interviews get him drafted ahead of Benson, Dvorsky, Danielson, etc.

Oh for sure, I'm not insinuating he's on Landy's level as a prospect at all. Just pointing out he has a profile NHL teams love and thought the interview news was interesting enough to share. I'd also rank him behind the guys you listed amongst others

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

Watching some of the U18's again. I'm really getting the hype, he's a great defender with excellent awareness, excellent skating ability, a strong physical game & great puck+passing skills.

He's aware off the puck who he's supposed to cover, along the walls he uses his strength to gain body position & take the puck away, then with his skating ability & awareness anytime he seperates someone from the puck he's either skating away quickly or identifying+making the pass quickly. Strong details.

He definitely has good skill & room to grow offensively, but his bread & butter will be eating minutes, and he's the kind of modern defender teams are looking for.

 

[LemonSauceD]

It’s the players passed over for Swedish defensemen in Round 1 or 2 that makes them riskier, but it could be a cycle. Boqvist is well below Bouchard and Dobson. Broberg will never impact like Zegras. Lundkvist already surpassed by Berggren. Soderstrom is not worth more than Boldy. Grans was massively overhyped. Again, it’s a trend you can’t ignore and just dismiss as coincidence.

I fully admit I used to fall for the hype (except Broberg and Lundkvist). But you’re looking at only a 25% hit rate with these top Swedish defenders in recent years. And by hit, I mean just becoming full-time, full-season NHL defensemen, let alone all-stars. And by top, I mean 1st rounders or the first ones picked.

Almost all those defenseman you have mentioned were not known for their two way game or defense. They were all offensive defenseman with known defensive flaws.

Willander is a better defender than they were at the same age tenfold. Offensively, he’s not there at the moment, however, he has the mechanics and ability to grow an offensive game. He’s a two way defenseman with a knack for defense and plays a punishing style of defense. He’s also got size over them.

Willander is very similar to Edvinsson. Bigger, physical, and more defensive defenseman will project better than an undersized, offensively gifted but defensively flawed player. This is especially true for Swedes.

Willander also playing college hockey next year and getting the chance to adjust to NA ice is going to be huge for his development, fundamentally.

 

[Fjordy]

Book it, he is BU bound.

Omg, At first I thought it was Risto

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

holy shit i want him on the flames. also side note, why does he look like this girl i went to hs with in one of his older pics haha.

 

[Ace]

Just pointed out a fact. There’s no denying that recent classes of Swedish defenseman were overhyped because of tournaments and haven’t really met expectations. Doesn’t mean they’ll all become future busts, but many in recent years have. Just means that they get more attention because of tournaments and less from league play. Their top defensemen dating back to 2013 or 2014 haven’t been hitting outside of a few exceptions. Different story with Swedish forwards in that same timeframe like Lindholm, Raymond, Nylander, EP, JEEK.

Maybe they turn it around with Wallinder, Edvinsson, ASP, Willander, but the risk remains higher.

And Michkov is a generational talent. Similar to Dahlin. Hype was warranted and justified years before draft.

You were the one draft analyst who argued Dahlin wasn’t #1 in his own class.

We haven’t forgotten. We mark biases like the passage of time.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Almost all those defenseman you have mentioned were not known for their two way game or defense. They were all offensive defenseman with known defensive flaws.

Willander is a better defender than they were at the same age tenfold. Offensively, he’s not there at the moment, however, he has the mechanics and ability to grow an offensive game. He’s a two way defenseman with a knack for defense and plays a punishing style of defense. He’s also got size over them.

Willander is very similar to Edvinsson. Bigger, physical, and more defensive defenseman will project better than an undersized, offensively gifted but defensively flawed player. This is especially true for Swedes.

Willander also playing college hockey next year and getting the chance to adjust to NA ice is going to be huge for his development, fundamentally.

Willander’s league vs tournament play is what makes him riskier for the top-15. Who will he be as a pro? I don’t doubt he’ll be very good at BU and develop into an NHL defenseman, but what about the players he’s jumping over to go top-10 or top-15? Too risky IMO.

Call it a pet peeve, but a late riser should not crack a top-15 of a deep draft based off the last tournament and combine interviews.

In terms of Swedish defensemen, one example is Gabriel Carlsson. Big defensive defenseman. Was nowhere near Oliver Kylington in terms of hype and skill set but Kylington had a bad tournament or two and Carlsson didn’t, so he got jumped late and got passed over for Carlsson. There are other late-riser examples of this too (Lagesson, Carl Dahlstrom, Rasmus Bengtsson, Lundkvist also come to mind). But none if these guys went top-15, which is kinda my point.

 

[WingsToPick4th]

Benson, Leonard and Reinbacher will all be available at 9 and Yzerman will end up taking Willander lol

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

There are four U18 tournaments every year. In 2020 there were three.

Point stands. Swedish defensemen have not lived up to expectations except Dahlin and Sandin. Maybe Liljegren but he went from a potential top-5 pick to a middle pairing in the NHL.

Even still, that’s a high rate of underperformers from guys taken in R1. Facts, not opinion.

Weird that you are calling him a "potential top-5 pick" instead of saying he was picked 17th.

If Willander becomes Liljegren, I don't think many folks would complain -- I like the player a lot and think he'd be a lot more popular on another team who can use him more effectively.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Benson, Leonard and Reinbacher will all be available at 9 and Yzerman will end up taking Willander lol

This question fascinates me -- I've just looked through all of his Detroit drafts but it isn't helping for formulate a guess. Someone European is all we know.

 

[Canuck Luck]

Just pointed out a fact. There’s no denying that recent classes of Swedish defenseman were overhyped because of tournaments and haven’t really met expectations. Doesn’t mean they’ll all become future busts, but many in recent years have. Just means that they get more attention because of tournaments and less from league play. Their top defensemen dating back to 2013 or 2014 haven’t been hitting outside of a few exceptions. Different story with Swedish forwards in that same timeframe like Lindholm, Raymond, Nylander, EP, JEEK.

Maybe they turn it around with Wallinder, Edvinsson, ASP, Willander, but the risk remains higher.

And Michkov is a generational talent. Similar to Dahlin. Hype was warranted and justified years before draft.

I have no dog in this fight but as an outsider that loves reading posters views on prospects, yours do seem a bit unfailry jaded towards swedish d-men. You are only focusing on the d-men and pointing out the couple players that went after that hit. Problem is, You could do that for almost any country/position if you cherry pick enough of a sample size.

In the last 5 years there have only been 4 swedish d drafted top 10. Simon Edvinsson,Philip Broberg, Rasmus Dahlin, and Adam Boqvist.

Edvinsson today still goes around 6th in a re-draft. Its super early to be judging the 2021 draft to be fair.

Broberg would definitely fall out of the top 10, but you're making his selection out to be much worse than it is. Looking at the 2019 draft class, It is extemely weak for d-men and, overall for every position. There are only 3 guys drafted after him that definitively hold more value today; Zegras, Boldy, Caufield. Hard to say Broberg is a bad pick when you pick at 8th and you have a 20/23 chance of picking a player worse than Broberg if you look at the rest of the 23 picks after him. If you were looking to draft a d, Broberg was and still is the BPA d-man.

Dahlin as you've said was a hit.

Boqvist again like Broberg would definitely fall out of the top 10 but is also in a weak draft class in terms of depth. The only d-man taken after him that are head and shoulders better is Noah Dobson, and K'Andre Miller. There's no way anyone could have reasonably taken Miller top 10 given how raw and inexperienced he was. I was a huge fan of his, but even scouts extremely high on him wouldnt have taken him before 15. The bust factor was way too high to take a swing like that. Funny enough, if you look at picks 9-31, Dobson and Miller are the only 2 players in those 23 selections that are clearly ahead of Boqvist today. So there was a 21/23 chance if they selected any other player that went in the first round, they would have a similar level player to Boqvist.

So 2 of the d-men look to be hits. 2 of them had a couple players selected after them turn out to be better, but they still belong in their draft range given the rest of their draft class after them.

The issue looks to be that draft classes have had no depth once picks get towards 8th overall. Overwhelming odds are the pick from 8 onwards is a middling player. That is for every nation and every position, not just Swedish d-men.

Like i could say Finnish forwards are overhyped and arent top 10 worthy let alone top 5. Look at Slafkovsky, Kakko, Kotkaniemi, Laine, and Puljujarvi. 4/5 of them picked top 3 in their drafts and all 5 picked top 5. All would fall in a re-draft with only Laine and Kotkaniemi still being top 10 picks (Slafkovsky too early to tell but def wouldnt be #1, maybe not even top 3).

 

[strattonius]

Rate the player, not their nationality.

I mean the analysis is about as jaded as picking players with hazel colored eyes. It's pointless cherry picking and follows the same rationale we all made fun of Don Cherry for.