D Tom Willander - Boston University, NCAA (2023, 11th, VAN)

LemonSauceD

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Reminds me much more of Makar in his draft year as a comparable. Not in overall talent, but in skating style and habits.
I think stylistically I see the Makar comparison. But Willander is bigger and more physical.

I suggested Doughty as a comparable due to the size and similar play style. Willander is an absolute two way stud and I’ve been extremely high on him since the beginning of the this season. He’s someone who demands control of the puck. He’s gritty, physical, and athletic, but most importantly, his poise and IQ is what I like about him the most. His vision, shot, and skating is better than all of the defenseman in this draft. He’s got a lot of unrefined skills he needs to hone and develop into, but this is a guy who undoubtedly has the highest ceiling and my bet to being the best defender in this draft class.

I have no doubt he’ll make the NHL right after his first college season.
 

pgfan66

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Jun 26, 2019
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Willander is a wildcard. I only go off of his Rogle plays which was not as structured as it was for Sweden. He makes the game an adventure for his unit by chasing after every puck. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. I went back and watched the Djugardens games and he got burned a lot for snooping around for pucks down low. If a team can settle him down by a notch, it could be a big payoff. My issues with him aren’t skill related but def decision making.
I personally value hockey sense including decision-making super highly but I wouldn’t worry about what you’re describing. For the high-end players, raw skill often trumps perceived hockey sense issues. Meaning, they know how good they are and try things they shouldn’t, but adjust once they reach higher levels. That applies to forwards like Stützle as much as it applies to D like Willander. I especially don’t worry about Willander’s decision making because he’s good on retrievals and that’s usually a good summary for actual hockey sense and skill that can be applied to other game situations too.
 
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Steve Kournianos

@thedraftanalyst
I personally value hockey sense including decision-making super highly but I wouldn’t worry about what you’re describing. For the high-end players, raw skill often trumps perceived hockey sense issues. Meaning, they know how good they are and try things they shouldn’t, but adjust once they reach higher levels. That applies to forwards like Stützle as much as it applies to D like Willander. I especially don’t worry about Willander’s decision making because he’s good on retrievals and that’s usually a good summary for actual hockey sense and skill that can be applied to other game situations too.

Don’t mind his offense at all. But he causes odd-man rushes against, chases high when coverage is already there, and crowds the puck away from the slot. This happened throughout the J20 playoffs. Way too aggressive for my taste. His releases are late but he makes up for it with a quick first step. That’ll work in the J20 but not in the NHL. Tries to do too much on a loaded team with skilled forwards. Very fixable but nobody is talking about his league play only the U18’s. If his coach is telling him to be that unbridled, fine. But this top-10 stuff is recency bias.

No way he’s done enough to go top 10. The Heiskanen comps are premature since Heiskanen totally dominated his age group and was a strong three-zone defender for HIFK for a whole season. Willander is way riskier. I’m ok with a late first but he’s doing the same stuff that Lundkvist did his draft year. He got better defensively when he went to Lulea but even today he can’t crack an NHL lineup beyond a part-time No. 6
 
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pgfan66

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Don’t mind his offense at all. But he causes odd-man rushes against, chases high when coverage is already there, and crowds the puck away from the slot. This happened throughout the J20 playoffs. Way too aggressive for my taste. His releases are late but he makes up for it with a quick first step. That’ll work in the J20 but not in the NHL. Tries to do too much on a loaded team with skilled forwards. Very fixable but nobody is talking about his league play only the U18’s. If his coach is telling him to be that unbridled, fine. But this top-10 stuff is recency bias.

No way he’s done enough to go top 10. The Heiskanen comps are premature since Heiskanen totally dominated his age group and was a strong three-zone defender for HIFK for a whole season. Willander is way riskier. I’m ok with a late first but he’s doing the same stuff that Lundkvist did his draft year. He got better defensively when he went to Lulea but even today he can’t crack an NHL lineup beyond a part-time No. 6
I can only repeat myself: I’m not worried about that. It’s way harder to teach players to be more aggressive than less aggressive. His decision-making in other areas looks good enough to believe his hockey sense overall is strong.

Regarding the recency bias part, I don’t disagree. But he started out as a late first for me and continued to climb throughout the year. The U18s were the cherry on top, if you will. J20 is a difficult league to play in as a draft-eligible player, so I value what he did every time he played with and against his peers.

Edit: Top 10 might be a bit rich for me too, but I wouldn’t be shocked. Definitely a reasonable option for VAN at 11.
 

Garl

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Oct 7, 2006
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I get it, but Landeskog was a consensus top-2 pick for most of his draft year. Not doubting Willander's maturity and upside but it would be bananas that one late-season tournament and interviews get him drafted ahead of Benson, Dvorsky, Danielson, etc.
Landeskog was not a consensus TOP2 pick, there was a big 4 of RNH, Larsson, Huberdeau and Couturiere and Landeskog was ranked in the late or middle 1st

Don’t mind his offense at all. But he causes odd-man rushes against, chases high when coverage is already there, and crowds the puck away from the slot. This happened throughout the J20 playoffs. Way too aggressive for my taste. His releases are late but he makes up for it with a quick first step. That’ll work in the J20 but not in the NHL. Tries to do too much on a loaded team with skilled forwards. Very fixable but nobody is talking about his league play only the U18’s. If his coach is telling him to be that unbridled, fine. But this top-10 stuff is recency bias.

No way he’s done enough to go top 10. The Heiskanen comps are premature since Heiskanen totally dominated his age group and was a strong three-zone defender for HIFK for a whole season. Willander is way riskier. I’m ok with a late first but he’s doing the same stuff that Lundkvist did his draft year. He got better defensively when he went to Lulea but even today he can’t crack an NHL lineup beyond a part-time No. 6
Lundqvist is 5'10 that's his main problem

I can only repeat myself: I’m not worried about that. It’s way harder to teach players to be more aggressive than less aggressive. His decision-making in other areas looks good enough to believe his hockey sense overall is strong.

Regarding the recency bias part, I don’t disagree. But he started out as a late first for me and continued to climb throughout the year. The U18s were the cherry on top, if you will. J20 is a difficult league to play in as a draft-eligible player, so I value what he did every time he played with and against his peers.
I mean, U18s and other international tournaments have shown he can play a very effective game defensively
 

Steve Kournianos

@thedraftanalyst
Landeskog was not a consensus TOP2 pick, there was a big 4 of RNH, Larsson, Huberdeau and Couturiere and Landeskog was ranked in the late or middle 1st


Lundqvist is 5'10 that's his main problem


I mean, U18s and other international tournaments have shown he can play a very effective game defensively

Landeskog was No. 1 on CSB midterm and No. 2 on the final.
 

Steve Kournianos

@thedraftanalyst
I can only repeat myself: I’m not worried about that. It’s way harder to teach players to be more aggressive than less aggressive. His decision-making in other areas looks good enough to believe his hockey sense overall is strong.

Regarding the recency bias part, I don’t disagree. But he started out as a late first for me and continued to climb throughout the year. The U18s were the cherry on top, if you will. J20 is a difficult league to play in as a draft-eligible player, so I value what he did every time he played with and against his peers.

Edit: Top 10 might be a bit rich for me too, but I wouldn’t be shocked. Definitely a reasonable option for VAN at 11.

There’s still more risk when it comes to defensemen because there are fewer jobs and it’s harder to crack a lineup until the issues get fixed, and when they do get fixed, they usually have to outplay established veterans. Longer development timeline. That’s why a defenseman in the top-10/15 has to be as close to a sure thing.

Rogle in the SHL was not that good this year. They played a lot of kids. If Willander beat out older prospects and stuck, maybe I’d be more comfortable. His J20 season was very good and promising, and he was a No. 1 on a winner, but there are holes.

Swedish defensemen get overrated anyway because of these tournaments and Button and CSB are the biggest culprits. Look at the recent list of high-round picks. Outside of Dahlin, Sandin (who was with SSM) and maybe Wallinder it’s ugly. We get duped every year.

2015-G. Carlsson, J. Larsson
2016-Cederholm, Nassen
2017-Liljegren, Brannstrom
2018-Dahlin, Boqvist, Sandin, Lundkvist, F. Johansson, Ginning
2019-Broberg, Soderstrom, Bjornfot
2020-Wallinder, Andrae, Grans
 
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pgfan66

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Jun 26, 2019
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There’s still more risk when it comes to defensemen because there are fewer jobs and it’s harder to crack a lineup until the issues get fixed, and when they do get fixed, they usually have to outplay established veterans. Longer development timeline. That’s why a defenseman in the top-10/15 has to be as close to a sure thing.

Rogle in the SHL was not that good this year. They played a lot of kids. If Willander beat out older prospects and stuck, maybe I’d be more comfortable. His J20 season was very good and promising, and he was a No. 1 on a winner, but there are holes.

Swedish defensemen get overrated anyway because of these tournaments and Button and CSB are the biggest culprits. Look at the recent list of high-round picks. Outside of Dahlin, Sandin (who was with SSM) and maybe Wallinder it’s ugly. We get duped every year.

2015-G. Carlsson, J. Larsson
2016-Cederholm, Nassen
2017-Liljegren, Brannstrom
2018-Dahlin, Boqvist, Sandin, Lundkvist, F. Johansson, Ginning
2019-Broberg, Soderstrom, Bjornfot
2020-Wallinder, Andrae, Grans
Well, I guess I just rate Willander higher than you do.
 

VictorLustig

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Feb 8, 2012
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There’s still more risk when it comes to defensemen because there are fewer jobs and it’s harder to crack a lineup until the issues get fixed, and when they do get fixed, they usually have to outplay established veterans. Longer development timeline. That’s why a defenseman in the top-10/15 has to be as close to a sure thing.

Rogle in the SHL was not that good this year. They played a lot of kids. If Willander beat out older prospects and stuck, maybe I’d be more comfortable. His J20 season was very good and promising, and he was a No. 1 on a winner, but there are holes.

Swedish defensemen get overrated anyway because of these tournaments and Button and CSB are the biggest culprits. Look at the recent list of high-round picks. Outside of Dahlin, Sandin (who was with SSM) and maybe Wallinder it’s ugly. We get duped every year.

2015-G. Carlsson, J. Larsson
2016-Cederholm, Nassen
2017-Liljegren, Brannstrom
2018-Dahlin, Boqvist, Sandin, Lundkvist, F. Johansson, Ginning
2019-Broberg, Soderstrom, Bjornfot
2020-Wallinder, Andrae, Grans
Really, Cederholm, Nässén, Ginning?

I bet a lot of the d-men you mention here are going to turn out just fine. Like you say, harder to get a job as a d-man, alot of those already have that job at a young age?
 
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Steve Kournianos

@thedraftanalyst
Really, Cederholm, Nässén, Ginning?

I bet a lot of the d-men you mention here are going to turn out just fine. Like you say, harder to get a job as a d-man, alot of those already have that job at a young age?

I listed the top Swedish defensemen from every recent draft class. Having a job vs being Norris-caliber or just really damn good is a big difference. If I’m picking a defenseman over an all-star forward in the top-10, he better be more than “just fine”.

But the point is more the recency bias. Nearly all these kids stopped playing hockey over a month ago.
 

Garl

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Landeskog was No. 1 on CSB midterm and No. 2 on the final.
Yes, he rose as the season went on. But in early rankings he was not that high

 

theslatcher

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Jan 5, 2016
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I listed the top Swedish defensemen from every recent draft class. Having a job vs being Norris-caliber or just really damn good is a big difference. If I’m picking a defenseman over an all-star forward in the top-10, he better be more than “just fine”.

But the point is more the recency bias. Nearly all these kids stopped playing hockey over a month ago.
It's a good thing that the vast majority of the players you listed weren't taken in the top-10, then? You list 3rd rounders which is... C'mon man, you can do better than that. And one of the two that were picked in the top-10 is in that Norris-calibre range?

Your agenda is just very weird. What does not playing in the 2nd round of the NHL playoffs and beyond have to do with player quality?

USA dmen drafted in the same timeframe, I've limited them to the first two rounds to be more ingenuous:

2015: Hanifin, Werenski, Carlo
2016: McAvoy, Peeke, Krys, Lindgren
2017: Samberg, Martin, Gildon, Mirageas, Walsh, Farrance, Phillips
2018: Hughes, Miller, Samuelsson, Wilde, Perunovich
2019: York, Johnson, LaCombe, A.Vlasic, Struble, Helleson
2020: Sanderson, Kleven, Faber, Lohrei

Damn, teams get duped HARD by US dmen, especially after 2016!

Not to mention all of them stopped playing hockey over a month ago!
 

Garl

Registered User
Oct 7, 2006
8,153
1,092
There’s still more risk when it comes to defensemen because there are fewer jobs and it’s harder to crack a lineup until the issues get fixed, and when they do get fixed, they usually have to outplay established veterans. Longer development timeline. That’s why a defenseman in the top-10/15 has to be as close to a sure thing.

Rogle in the SHL was not that good this year. They played a lot of kids. If Willander beat out older prospects and stuck, maybe I’d be more comfortable. His J20 season was very good and promising, and he was a No. 1 on a winner, but there are holes.

Swedish defensemen get overrated anyway because of these tournaments and Button and CSB are the biggest culprits. Look at the recent list of high-round picks. Outside of Dahlin, Sandin (who was with SSM) and maybe Wallinder it’s ugly. We get duped every year.

2015-G. Carlsson, J. Larsson
2016-Cederholm, Nassen
2017-Liljegren, Brannstrom
2018-Dahlin, Boqvist, Sandin, Lundkvist, F. Johansson, Ginning
2019-Broberg, Soderstrom, Bjornfot
2020-Wallinder, Andrae, Grans

Is it tournaments or just high picks?

Carlsson and Larsson were not good at U18 WJC, but were drafted in the late first because of size/skating combo, Carlsson is 6'5, Larsson is 6'3 and both are good skaters

Cederholm wasn't very good at U18's either and he was drafted in like 3rd round.
Nassen didn't even play for National Team and was drafted very late 2nd round

Liljegren was touted as a top prospect for very long time. He fell closer to the draft, it happens every year with players of different nations. Still is a good player now, would probably go higher in the redraft.

Brannstrom was a boom or bust type, since he is so small

Boqvist is a good offensive defenseman and injuries you can't predict

Lundqvist is in the same category as Brannstrom

Johansson is a mystery, nobody really knows why he was taken so high. He didn't had any exceptional U18 WJC's

Ginning? He was taken in the second round, had a decent first year in AHL btw

Broberg, Soderstrom, Bjornfot way too early to tell anything. Aside from Seider and maybe Byram no defenseman even had any impact in the NHL yet, this three at least are playing.

Wallinder, Andrae, Grans- This guys didn't even had an U18 WJC at all, because of Covid! Come on
 
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Garl

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Russian forwards taken in TOP 100(First rounders bolded)

2015-Guryanov, Y.Svechnikov, Trenin, Dergachyov
2016-Rubtsov, Korshkov, Kayumov, Abramov
2017-Kostin, Volkov, Altybarmakian, Lipanov
2018-A.Svechnikov, Kravtsov, Denisenko, Iskhakov, Marchenko, Morozov, Der-Arguchntsev, Shafigullin, Khovanov
2019-Podkolzin, Firstov, Afanasyev, Dorofeyev, Nikolayev
2020-Amirov, Chinakhov, Khusnutdinov, Ponomaryov, Sokolov, Guschin, Groshev

Now that's an ugly track record, aside from a can't miss prospect in Svechnikov-jr. And even he is not exactly living up to his hype.

Duped every year!
 

Steve Kournianos

@thedraftanalyst
Yes, he rose as the season went on. But in early rankings he was not that high


Irrelevant. Landeskog stopped being a riser by midseason. He was a lock for the top of the draft for 6-7 months. Willander was a late-1st at best for 4/5 of the season and is now considered top 10 because of an April tournament and the combine. Apples and oranges.
 

Steve Kournianos

@thedraftanalyst
It's a good thing that the vast majority of the players you listed weren't taken in the top-10, then? You list 3rd rounders which is... C'mon man, you can do better than that. And one of the two that were picked in the top-10 is in that Norris-calibre range?

Your agenda is just very weird. What does not playing in the 2nd round of the NHL playoffs and beyond have to do with player quality?

USA dmen drafted in the same timeframe, I've limited them to the first two rounds to be more ingenuous:

2015: Hanifin, Werenski, Carlo
2016: McAvoy, Peeke, Krys, Lindgren
2017: Samberg, Martin, Gildon, Mirageas, Walsh, Farrance, Phillips
2018: Hughes, Miller, Samuelsson, Wilde, Perunovich
2019: York, Johnson, LaCombe, A.Vlasic, Struble, Helleson
2020: Sanderson, Kleven, Faber, Lohrei

Damn, teams get duped HARD by US dmen, especially after 2016!

Not to mention all of them stopped playing hockey over a month ago!

Wow. That’s a damn good list of NHL defensemen right there.
 

Steve Kournianos

@thedraftanalyst
Is it tournaments or just high picks?

Carlsson and Larsson were not good at U18 WJC, but were drafted in the late first because of size/skating combo, Carlsson is 6'5, Larsson is 6'3 and both are good skaters

Cederholm wasn't very good at U18's either and he was drafted in like 3rd round.
Nassen didn't even play for National Team and was drafted very late 2nd round

Liljegren was touted as a top prospect for very long time. He fell closer to the draft, it happens every year with players of different nations. Still is a good player now, would probably go higher in the redraft.

Brannstrom was a boom or bust type, since he is so small

Boqvist is a good offensive defenseman and injuries you can't predict

Lundqvist is in the same category as Brannstrom

Johansson is a mystery, nobody really knows why he was taken so high. He didn't had any exceptional U18 WJC's

Ginning? He was taken in the second round, had a decent first year in AHL btw

Broberg, Soderstrom, Bjornfot way too early to tell anything. Aside from Seider and maybe Byram no defenseman even had any impact in the NHL yet, this three at least are playing.

Wallinder, Andrae, Grans- This guys didn't even had an U18 WJC at all, because of Covid! Come on

There are four U18 tournaments every year. In 2020 there were three.

Point stands. Swedish defensemen have not lived up to expectations except Dahlin and Sandin. Maybe Liljegren but he went from a potential top-5 pick to a middle pairing in the NHL.

Even still, that’s a high rate of underperformers from guys taken in R1. Facts, not opinion.
 

MardyBum

Registered User
Jul 4, 2012
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It's a good thing that the vast majority of the players you listed weren't taken in the top-10, then? You list 3rd rounders which is... C'mon man, you can do better than that. And one of the two that were picked in the top-10 is in that Norris-calibre range?

Your agenda is just very weird. What does not playing in the 2nd round of the NHL playoffs and beyond have to do with player quality?

USA dmen drafted in the same timeframe, I've limited them to the first two rounds to be more ingenuous:

2015: Hanifin, Werenski, Carlo
2016: McAvoy, Peeke, Krys, Lindgren
2017: Samberg, Martin, Gildon, Mirageas, Walsh, Farrance, Phillips
2018: Hughes, Miller, Samuelsson, Wilde, Perunovich
2019: York, Johnson, LaCombe, A.Vlasic, Struble, Helleson
2020: Sanderson, Kleven, Faber, Lohrei

Damn, teams get duped HARD by US dmen, especially after 2016!

Not to mention all of them stopped playing hockey over a month ago!

I'll have you know Samberg was playing hockey a month ago.
 

Garl

Registered User
Oct 7, 2006
8,153
1,092
There are four U18 tournaments every year. In 2020 there were three.

Point stands. Swedish defensemen have not lived up to expectations except Dahlin and Sandin. Maybe Liljegren but he went from a potential top-5 pick to a middle pairing in the NHL.

Even still, that’s a high rate of underperformers from guys taken in R1. Facts, not opinion.
Underperformers in the first round are Carlsson, Larsson, both taken late, Brannstrom and maybe Lundqvist. And well Johansson, but as I have said, was a weird pick.
As i have said, 2019 draftees are just very early to judge for D.

For russian forwards in the same timefrime underperformers would be Y.Svechnikov, Guryanov, Rubtsov, Kostin, Kravtsov, Denisenko, Podklolzin

For canadian defensemen: Juulsen, Bean, Fabbro, Stanley, Cholowski, Johansen, Foote, Merlkey, Smith, Bernard-Docker, Beaudin

US forwards: White, Brown, Kunin, Bellows, Jones, Tufte, Frederic, Yamamoto, Poehling, O'Brien
 

UrbanImpact

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Apr 12, 2021
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He is starting to creep into the conversation as possibly the Best Dman in this draft.

I would not be surprised at all if Wallinder goes top 10 at this point.

I see alot of Adam Fox in his game.
 
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