D David Reinbacher - EHC Kloten, NL (2023, 5th, MTL)

[The Last Red]

They probably won’t be right if that’s the case. He could play in the top pairing in sense where he is the supporting defender for someone who is actually a true #1 D. Like Muzzin was for Doughty or Brain Rafalski was for Nick Lidstrom.

If they thought he’d be a true #1 all situations elite defenseman, I think their expectations were a bit high.

Teams are looking for players to fit into their lineups at 5. It truly depends on the draft itself. Sometimes you are fortunate enough to draft an Elias Pettersson or Jake Sanderson. At 5, teams seem to either go with the high floor guy or the highest boom-bust guy. However, fans will always expect that draft position to produce a superstar because it’s so high in the draft, despite the fact it rarely does.

In the last 20 years these have been the selections:
Ivan Demidov, David Reinbacher, Cutter Gauthier, Kent Johnson, Jake Sanderson, Alex Turcotte, Barrett Hayton, Elias Pettersson, Olli Juolevi, Noah Hanifin, Michael Dal Colle, Elias Lindholm, Morgan Reilly, Ryan Strome, Nino Niederreiter, Brayden Schenn, Luke Schenn, Karl Alzner, Phil Kessel, Carey Price, and Blake Wheeler

Your odds of getting a top line forward or top pairing D are extremely low at 5.

I never said a no. 1, I said first pairing. Not the same thing.

 

[MichaelFarrell]

Extremely low?

Ignoring the latest 4 drafts because they are too recent

You have
Sanderson
Petterson
Hanifin
Lindholm
B. Schenn
Reilly
Kessel
Price
Wheeler

Thats 9 of the past 16 drafts where you get a very good player at 5 overall. First line/first pairing/starting goalie.

Did you proof read that list before you posted it?

It’s a good list of players for sure but let’s be honest, not a huge group of #1 D and top line forwards. You can get a good player at 5, but it kind of goes into my point. I don’t see that type of upside in Reinbacher and I doubt privately Montreal’s management truly felt he was either.

 

[ForsbergForever]

If Montreal really didn't want to take Michkov, they might as well have gone with someone like Nate Danielson or Dalibor Dvorsky...

 

[Xirik]

Zach Bogosian, Griffin Reinhart, Ryan Murray, Erik Gudbranson, Adam Larsson, Noah Hanifin on the top of my head, were all top 5 defenceman picked. Reinbacher deserves to be picked where he was taken and has potential to be better than all of the above mentioned players. So, no stress.

Adam Larsson supposedly had the potential to be Hedman. How did that work out.


See where I'm going with this?

 

[Miller Time]

Adam Larsson supposedly had the potential to be Hedman. How did that work out.


See where I'm going with this?

You think because some prospects don't pan out, none will

Weird take to have while posting on a message board literally called "hockey futures", but whatever floats your boat I guess?

 

[Frank Drebin]

It’s a good list of players for sure but let’s be honest, not a huge group of #1 D and top line forwards. You can get a good player at 5, but it kind of goes into my point. I don’t see that type of upside in Reinbacher and I doubt privately Montreal’s management truly felt he was either.

Its an absurd suggestion that a team with the 5OA pick is drafting a player that they feel has second pairing or second line upside.

The 16 most recent drafts have had 9 players that ended up being first line/first pairing type players. No elite stars to be sure but lots of players that end up getting paid in the 7-10 m range. Stars.

 

[SlafySZN]

If Montreal really didn't want to take Michkov, they might as well have gone with someone like Nate Danielson or Dalibor Dvorsky...

2nd/3rd line forwards over a top pairing defenseman? no, not really.

 

[HabsAddict]

Given the Habs defenseman and their abilities, by year 5 Rein is likely to play with Hutson and Guhle with Mailman. This season end at the very best, Matheson-Guhle, X-Mailman and again Hutson-Rein.

Those are likely pair, but of course everything depends on the players. At the very worst and the floor is that Rein is a top 6 with limited offense, most likely a top 4 with moderate offense. Unless he has a well of hidden offense and a cannon, he hasn't shown it yet. On the other hand, he played for a miserable team so hard to show anything other then survival skill.

We will know this upcoming season who he really is. I'd be delighted if he is a bigger, meaner McDonagh. Potting his 35-45 points for the next 15 years for us. Or better...and if Hutson is the real deal, more like 50-60-70 points.

 

[HabsAddict]

He's certainly going to be an NHLer at some point soon as he has a number of tools that will get him plenty of chances. With his frame, solid speed/skating/mobility, he can move the puck, decent shot, decent physical game but still needs to learn to use his size more. His defensive game was not what I expected to see last season, but in the 2nd half he cut down on the mistakes and in Laval he was much better then I thought, as going from the big ice to the AHL wasn't much of an issue for him.

I don't know how good he will be, as I don't try to look past what they are showing right now. He's got the size and enough 2 way skills that I just don't see him not making the NHL even if it's a 5th/6th. When Josi was just drafted, if you had told me he would one day put up a 96 pt season I would have said that was impossible. People focus too much on thinking said prospect won't go through ups and downs during their development so that when they are struggling, fans get too down on them and when it's going well they get too high often. These things will play out over several years so we'll see what happens.

EXACTLY like Josi when drafted. He showed very little offense until he got into the AHL. Then by the second season in the NHL, he showed that he's going to be a defensive and offensive force.

These guys are 16-17 year olds against man. Unless it's an exceptional player, they simply don't shine against 25 year olds.

 

[Xirik]

You think because some prospects don't pan out, none will

Weird take to have while posting on a message board literally called "hockey futures", but whatever floats your boat I guess?

No, that's not what I think. I'm saying that all those players that were quoted were all had "potential to be" and that talking about "potential" is meaningless since everyone has "potential".

Post about the players qualities or at least give a % on what you think the chances of the player hitting their potential are.

 

[Miller Time]

No, that's not what I think. I'm saying that all those players that were quoted were all had "potential to be" and that talking about "potential" is meaningless since everyone has "potential".

Again, hockey "futures".

Unless you're Nostradamus, all we are talking about when talking about prospects is their potential lol

Post about the players qualities or at least give a % on what you think the chances of the player hitting their potential are.

Adding a random % doesn't add any meaning, it's still talking about potential

Bad take

 

[Baksfamous112]

Adam Larsson supposedly had the potential to be Hedman. How did that work out.


See where I'm going with this?

So you think a guy like Nemec has #1 D written all over him since he was drafted by NJ but we should hold our horses on a guy like Reinbacher because Adam Larsson didn’t pan out as the next Hedman?

 

[jfhabs]

2nd/3rd line forwards over a top pairing defenseman? no, not really.

Those guys have higher potential than that. They have a strong chance of being top 6 forwards.
Ryan Leonard projects as a 1st/2nd line winger too. Doesn't mean anything about Reinbacher projections. They can all project well. Heck they are all recent top 10 picks....

 

[The Last Red]

It’s a good list of players for sure but let’s be honest, not a huge group of #1 D and top line forwards. You can get a good player at 5, but it kind of goes into my point. I don’t see that type of upside in Reinbacher and I doubt privately Montreal’s management truly felt he was either.

You seem to not comprehend that first-pairing D and no. 1 D are not synonymous. There are maybe 10 true no. 1 D-men in the NHL, if that many. But you still need to find first-pairing d-men. As I said, go watch the Habs 2023 draft video (it's on YouTube). Their scouts loved the guy (unless it was scripted). We'll see if that love was justified in the next few years.

 

[Xirik]

So you think a guy like Nemec has #1 D written all over him since he was drafted by NJ but we should hold our horses on a guy like Reinbacher because Adam Larsson didn’t pan out as the next Hedman?

It's nice that you think of that about Nemec.

I never stated that he had could be a 1D though. He had a great rookie season.

Adam Larsson was an example which there are many many many more of. I'm sure your were aware of that but you just enjoy being intentionally obtuse.

Again, hockey "futures".

Unless you're Nostradamus, all we are talking about when talking about prospects is their potential lol



Adding a random % doesn't add any meaning, it's still talking about potential

Bad take

it does. its not much but it's better then just straight "potential"

 

[Treb]

If Montreal really didn't want to take Michkov, they might as well have gone with someone like Nate Danielson or Dalibor Dvorsky...

Why?

 

[Miller Time]

It's nice that you think of that about Nemec.

I never stated that he had could be a 1D though. He had a great rookie season.

Adam Larsson was an example which there are many many many more of. I'm sure your were aware of that but you just enjoy being intentionally obtuse.




it does. its not much but it's better then just straight "potential"

Meh

Well grounded comparatives to former prospects that progressed to impact NHLers trumps throwing random % darts as far as the quality of the post/take, imo

 

[jfhabs]

Anyone that thinks Reinbacher can't be a top pair guy is out to lunch.

Will he be THE top pair guy? I don't know, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if he becomes a Noah Hanifin all-situations do it all type.

I think that's a good comparable.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

I think that's a good comparable.

Is that an exciting outcome ? Guy just had his best season by far at 27 . I get that d take longer but 9 seasons . He’s a good d . Been solid most of his career but can’t help wanting more if that’s the end result .

 

[Frank Drebin]

Is that an exciting outcome ? Guy just had his best season by far at 27 . I get that d take longer but 9 seasons . He’s a good d . Been solid most of his career but can’t help wanting more if that’s the end result .

Were you thinking more prime Drew Doughty?

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Were you thinking more prime Drew Doughty?

That would be a more exciting outcome but is it realistic one ?

 

[CanadienShark]

Anyone that thinks Reinbacher can't be a top pair guy is out to lunch.

Will he be THE top pair guy? I don't know, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if he becomes a Noah Hanifin all-situations do it all type.

The drum I've been beating is Ryan McDonagh 2.0

Will he get there? Maybe not, but it's a realistic top end for him.

 

[Frank Drebin]

That would be a more exciting outcome but is it realistic one ?

Franchise d?
Probably not.

Pietrangelo would be fantastic
McDonough as well

Hanifin would be ok as well

Luke schenn would be disappointing

Griffin Reinhart, very bad

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Franchise d?
Probably not.

Pietrangelo would be fantastic
McDonough as well

Hanifin would be ok as well

Luke schenn would be disappointing

Griffin Reinhart, very bad

Jeff Finger ? lol just kidding . Curious to see how much time he gets this year

 

[jiboy]

I figure Reinbacher is going to be in the mold of Hanifin-Ekholm-Larsson

Im not sure about his poise with the puck offensively but he seems to have a decent knack for jumping in and out the play.