D David Reinbacher - EHC Kloten, NL (2023, 5th, MTL)

[Boxscore]

From actual drafts from 2017 to 2022 people should learn that drafting talented defenseman is a better way to build your team than winger or center with more questionable potential. I still think that 1st line center is more valuable, but 1st pair defensemen are better and more important prospects to build around.

I can`t say that Reinbacher is top-5. But after that? sorry, but even second or third defenseman is more valuable piece to build around. And Reinbacher is very good to be drafted after top prospects.

Seider wasn`t overdrafted. Because he is physical two way defenseman with good defensive and offensive upside. Edvinsson wasn`t overdrafted, Sanderson wasn`t. It is just a real way to build good team. And gm`s understand it and act this way. Of course you always can find Olli Juolevi, but you can prefer Puljujarvi or Nylander or PLD over Sergachyov. And it is stupid desicion. Or Zacha over Werenski and Provorov. It works in other way greatly.


So even if this defensive generations svcks, it does change nothing about Reinbacher as specific player. If we want to draft player, we should compare him, his pros and cons with Benson or Leonard or Sale or Moore. And think about their floor and their ceiling. And Reinbacher has great floor and "top5\top-10 defensman" ceiling. It`s way more valuable and important than what some of top-6-11\12 forwards can offer on this draft.
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What he did in Swiss league is much more impressive than what Dvorsky did in Allsvenskan. Dvorsky on the other hand was very productive on international level. But he is playing for much better team at least. I`m not ready to say who is better because no one has real answer. But scouts and gms should think - between Dvorsky and Reinbacher, who is closer to 1st line center\1st pair defenseman, and who is closer to second line\pair player.

And it`s only Dvorsky. May be dafting Reinbacher by 6th pick is too early(I don`t think it is, but I dont think Coyots should draft him necessarily), but drafting Reinbacher by 6-10 pick is the very good move by gm(of course if Smith or Michkov aren`t available). And some of the forwards, who wil be drafted after, will light this league out, of course. But it`s ok if team will have their 1st-2nd best defenseman.

Personally, Reinbacher reminds me Nikishin a lot. He isn`t worser prospect than Jiricek. And I think that Jackets are ok with having Jiricek over Savoie.

True, but teams need to be careful. Look at the Flyers -- the three years they "drafted for need" and took defensemen...

Drafted Sanheim and passed on Pastrnak.

Drafted Provorov and passed on Rantanen.

Drafted York and passed on Caufield.

If the Flyers even hit on TWO of those drafts, their team is completely different.

 

[Guadana]

True, but teams need to be careful. Look at the Flyers -- the three years they "drafted for need" and took defensemen...

Drafted Sanheim and passed on Pastrnak.

Drafted Provorov and passed on Rantanen.

Drafted York and passed on Caufield.

If the Flyers even hit on TWO of those drafts, their team is completely different.

You don`t need to draft for needs, you need to draft BPA and I talked about Reinbacher as potential BPA(i`m not saying he actually is BPA for 6th pick). Phlyers drafting was not for needs, it was bad. You can draft for "needs" and still got good player. Or drafting "BPA" and having WPA. There were a lot of players between Sanheim and Pasta. There were another defenseman between Provorov and Rantanen if they would want to draft better defenseman. And I still think Provorov needs to change scenary. I wouldn`t surprised if Colorado wouldn`t draft Rantanen, he could sleep more.
But now drating is another thing. Reason why Raymond and Slafkovsky were drafted higher than it could be before because of theirs production. Or Sanderson and Edvinsson - my lovely picks, were drafted in top-6 both. And I think if people watch tapes of Reinbacher and other actual young succesfull defensemen, they could want to draft him earlier. Because of his floor and ceiling. May be after Benson, may be after Leonard and Dvorsky. Or may be earlier than one or two of them. We can compare them, their potential. And today NHL love to pay a lot for good defensemen, and if you want them for cheap, or for reasonable money, you should draft them.
(of course you need to draft BPA and having good scouting team for that. Because if you don`t, there is only luck that will help to find good player. -> NJ in 2000`s with Conte)

 

[JRichard]

True, but teams need to be careful. Look at the Flyers -- the three years they "drafted for need" and took defensemen...

Drafted Sanheim and passed on Pastrnak.

Drafted Provorov and passed on Rantanen.

Drafted York and passed on Caufield.

If the Flyers even hit on TWO of those drafts, their team is completely different.

7 teams passed on Pasternak after Philly took Sanheim. Next 3 forwards claimed after Pasternak are not in the league anymore. Dman drafted before Sanheim was Julius Honka.

14 teams passed on Caufield. Boldy drafted at 12 has better numbers than him but its always the Caufield comparison. 2 dmen drafted before York were Broberg and Soderstrom both underwhelming.

 

[Michoulicious]

7 teams passed on Pasternak after Philly took Sanheim. Next 3 forwards claimed after Pasternak are not in the league anymore. Dman drafted before Sanheim was Julius Honka.

14 teams passed on Caufield. Boldy drafted at 12 has better numbers than him but its always the Caufield comparison. 2 dmen drafted before York were Broberg and Soderstrom both underwhelming.

Boldy was drafted before York, the point was York was drafted before Caufield...

... and not sure I'd say Boldy has better numbers than Caufield. Caufield scores goal at a pace that Boldy just won't ever be able to match. Someone can like Boldy better because of his physical tools, etc., but Caufield has been, is and always will be a way superior goal scorer.

Anyways, there are valid concerns that Reinbacher will end up being the D being drafted too high because he's a D in a draft where the talent is predominantly forward heavy at the top.

 

[SlafySZN]

if the first 4 picks go

CHI- Bedard
ANA - Fantilli
CLB - Carlsson
SJS - Michkov

i think Montreal takes Reinbacher at 5 if we dont Arizona will at 6

No chance.

In fact, Kent Hughes is actually probably praying as we speak for this exact scenario to happen so Smith could fall on their lap, not Reinbacher.

 

[Reddwit]

Detroit desperately needs offense, but if Reinbacher is there at 9, I don’t know how you pass on him. He’d complete Detroit’s future defense.

Edvinsson - Seider
Wallinder - Reinbacher

 

[WeThreeKings]

No chance.

In fact, Kent Hughes is actually probably praying as we speak for this exact scenario to happen so Smith could fall on their lap, not Reinbacher.

Reinbacher, Leonard, Benson, Dvorsky etc. are only in consideration at 5 if Michkov is still on the board.

 

[Frozenice]

No chance.

In fact, Kent Hughes is actually probably praying as we speak for this exact scenario to happen so Smith could fall on their lap, not Reinbacher.

If we get PLD, I think it’s more likely the Habs go for Reinbacher or Leonard and if we trade down a few spots, even better.

 

[Jacob]

Missed it if discussed, is he back at the WCs?

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Missed it if discussed, is he back at the WCs?

Yes, he returned after missing couple games.

 

[MNRube]

I think you always go BPA. If two prospects are neck and neck then you can use team need as tie-break.

Where people often get mislead is assuming a 30 pt 2nd pair RHD isn’t as valuable as a 50-60 point one-dimensional scoring wing. i agree with the Yzerman school where you build from blueline out and target guys who won’t get pushed around in playoffs

 

[majormajor]

Why do people keep bringing up need in this thread? Reinbacher is going to be BPA inside the top 10 (maybe inside the top 5).

 

[goforit]

if the first 4 picks go

CHI- Bedard
ANA - Fantilli
CLB - Carlsson
SJS - Michkov

i think Montreal takes Reinbacher at 5 if we dont Arizona will at 6

If top4 goes this way I think they take Smith. I think they'll want to fastforward the rebuild by trading for a young RHD (LA have way too many..). They'll have the assets to make a trade ala Chychrun.

On the other hand, if Michkov isn't taken in the top4 and they don't want to deal with everything surrounding him, they might go for Reinbacher.

 

[goforit]

Why do people keep bringing up need in this thread? Reinbacher is going to be BPA inside the top 10 (maybe inside the top 5).

Because history has shown that many teams pick for needs, even in the top10, every years... sadly.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Detroit desperately needs offense, but if Reinbacher is there at 9, I don’t know how you pass on him. He’d complete Detroit’s future defense.

Edvinsson - Seider
Wallinder - Reinbacher

This would be an elite defense but I honestly don’t know how it’s sustainable. We’d probably have to pay all 4 of them 7M+

 

[Hinterland]

This would be an elite defense but I honestly don’t know how it’s sustainable. We’d probably have to pay all 4 of them 7M+

Maybe but you can worry about this later. And if you draft a forward, he's unlikely to ask for less if he meets expectations.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Maybe but you can worry about this later. And if you draft a forward, he's unlikely to ask for less if he meets expectations.

I agree but it makes it so that we have very little money left for forwards. Even if the D is elite we cannot win without much better offense.

 

[JT3]

I agree but it makes it so that we have very little money left for forwards. Even if the D is elite we cannot win without much better offense.

If you end up with a problem like that (which is a great one to have) you just trade one. A young d-man that is good enough to command $7M+ is going to have a LOT of value on the trade market.

 

[Hinterland]

If you end up with a problem like that (which is a great one to have) you just trade one. A young d-man that is good enough to command $7M+ is going to have a LOT of value on the trade market.

Yeah. Also, Detroit does have decent young forwards as well. Larkin, Rasmussen and Raymond are well established and still young and I'm pretty high on Kasper, Berggren, Söderblom, Hanas, Mazur and Lombardi as well. If even just the majority of them eventually meet expectations then that's a very good forward group while defense seems a bit thinner.

 

[Reddwit]

This would be an elite defense but I honestly don’t know how it’s sustainable. We’d probably have to pay all 4 of them 7M+

I agree with your sentiment but it’s really just playing the hand you’re dealt if you see Reinbacher as BPA at 9. Then you cross that bridge when you get to it in terms of having to deal with their contracts. Plus, these guys will evolve at different rates. And it’s not like their impending big contracts will come out of the blue. (For example, we already know Seider will command $8+ if he isn’t bridged and that’s more than a year out.) If they’re developing well and Detroit has a glut of prime defenseman, there will be time for trades before Detroits hands are tied.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Yeah. Also, Detroit does have decent young forwards as well. Larkin, Rasmussen and Raymond are well established and still young and I'm pretty high on Kasper, Berggren, Söderblom, Hanas, Mazur and Lombardi as well. If even just the majority of them eventually meet expectations then that's a very good forward group while defense seems a bit thinner.

I dunno. I think it’s easy to say it’s a good problem to have, etc but when was the last time a young elite player was traded and the team that traded them won the trade? It’s almost always quality for quantity to some degree.

I would love Reinbacher but I hope somebody takes him before us because it would mean one of the top forwards drops to us.

 

[Goldenhands]

It’s not that fierce TBH. Vast majority of media reports say scouts aren’t behind him going higher than the top forwards. I really dont think its clickbait either. The general consensus from eye-testers is that Reinbacher is good but not better than that elite cluster of forwards.

If NHL/CSB scouts and fans were 50/50 it would spark major debate on an international scale. I love democracy and everybody gets a say but Reinbacher for Top 5 is only office cooler talk at this point, mostly because CSB/NHL scouts haven't supported it. FWIW, wouldn’t be shocked if he goes to CBJ or SJ.

As someone who had Seider ranked 4th and Jiricek 1st OV respectively in their draft year, I do believe that Reinbacher belongs in the same tier as those guys, he flashes alot of upside both offensively and defensively, his IQ is also very high and kid constantly wants to get better.

I do believe Habs pick him at 5 OV, if not, Arizona is going to run at the podium to call the pick.

 

[simonedvinsson]

I love democracy and everybody gets a say but Reinbacher for Top 5 is only office cooler talk at this point, mostly because CSB/NHL scouts haven't supported it. FWIW, wouldn’t be shocked if he goes to CBJ or SJ.

since you're being level-headed about all of this, do you think there's any credence to the rumor i'm starting that chicago is considering reinbacher at first overall?

 

[Hinterland]

I dunno. I think it’s easy to say it’s a good problem to have, etc but when was the last time a young elite player was traded and the team that traded them won the trade? It’s almost always quality for quantity to some degree.

I would love Reinbacher but I hope somebody takes him before us because it would mean one of the top forwards drops to us.

I'm not sure why you'd want to trade a defenseman. Even if the Redwings draft Reinbacher, I still like their forward prospects a lot. Minus Reinbacher and adding yet another forward I like them way better than the defense prospects.

 

[RedHawkDown]

I'm not sure why you'd want to trade a defenseman. Even if the Redwings draft Reinbacher, I still like their forward prospects a lot. Minus Reinbacher and adding yet another forward I like them way better than the defense prospects.

A team with 4 defensemen making above 7-8M will not be able to compete offensively.