D David Reinbacher - EHC Kloten, NL (2023, 5th, MTL)

[Steve Kournianos]

Yeah. That Kellenberger/Reinbacher pairing got the toughest assignments...yet still they were the lone plus players on the roster.

Splitting hairs. Even if he was on the nominal top pairing, he wasn’t their No. 1. If he was, he would have led in TOI and PP TOI.

The point stands — Reinbacher had a very impressive season but being the best rookie dman in Switzerland and no dominant tournaments isn’t enough to consider him a BPA over forwards who either destroyed tournaments, produced above-average numbers or greater in men’s leagues, or destroyed the junior circuit.

The closest he came when I was watching was a ''Cruyff turn'' to cause an overbackcheck. Still didn't get into the box. Maybe you have some video because I don't remember this. To be clear, what I'm talking about is getting into the box, beating the first guy clean for a scoring chance. Not an overbackcheck, or an oddman rush.

So staying to the outside on a one-on-one makes a kid a perimeter player?

Look at Seattle’s dmen back off the line when he entered the zone. Sorry but I think you are waaaaaay off base insinuating Benson is a perimeter player. Kid’s the epitome of fearless and calculated.

 

[NotProkofievian]

So staying to the outside on a one-on-one makes a kid a perimeter player?

Look at Seattle’s dmen back off the line when he entered the zone. Sorry but I think you are waaaaaay off base insinuating Benson is a perimeter player. Kid’s the epitome of fearless and calculated.

I never once said he was a perimeter player. I said he couldn't get inside when I was watching him, and that he was able to create from the outside. Those are different claims. What I mean by getting inside is beating the first line cleanly with the puck, getting into the ice that's being denied to the player. I value that ability highly, and just didn't see it in that series.

Your claim was that he was ''toying'' with Seattle? Sorry I didn't see it that way.

 

[Hinterland]

Splitting hairs. Even if he was on the nominal top pairing, he wasn’t their No. 1. If he was, he would have led in TOI and PP TOI.

The point stands — Reinbacher had a very impressive season but being the best rookie dman in Switzerland and no dominant tournaments isn’t enough to consider him a BPA over forwards who either destroyed tournaments, produced above-average numbers or greater in men’s leagues, or destroyed the junior circuit.

Nr.2 as I said...behind a very good import...imports tend to get the most ice time pretty much by default. Also...I'd need to look it up to tell for sure but I feel like most of the difference in TOI probably comes from special teams. Even strength TOI is probably very even Steven. Also, Kellenberger is 36. If you're thinking in pairings, and Kellenberger/Reinbacher love to play with each other (are also buddies off the ice despite the age gap) you probably couldn't force the old man to play more even if you want to. I think it was great like this though. Reinbacher played a lot. Probably far more than any defensemen in this league at his age...ever. The NL is everything but a development league. Unlike for example in the SHL, prospects, let alone foreign ones, are never given the benefit of the doubt. When in doubt, teams just go out and pay a shitload of money to sign some kind of a vet.

 

[ginomini]

Let's be real here. There is no clear consensus after the top 4 and Reinbacher belongs in that discussion as much as anyone else. Having a preference for another player is fine, but saying that he is being propped up just because he's a D is ridiculous. The guy is a great talent, and there is no statistical evidence that points to him being clearly inferior to the forwards after the top 4.

Lowering him because he did not have good international tournaments is just as ridiculous as boosting up a guy who had an amazing 7 game span (like Sandin Pelikka).

Jeez, the guy is Austrian! It's absolutely faulting him for that is absolutely ridiculous!

 

[SlafySZN]

Dont bet money on that. There is a good chance Michkov drops out of the top 5 and Im fairly condident Habs pick Reinbacher or Dvorsky over Smith.

Lol, no they wouldn’t.

 

[FriarChill]

No austrian player will ever destroy D1 tournaments especially no defenseman. Rofl
Looking good as an 18 year old playing for a team like austria against men at the WC is awesome.
Reinbacher will be a good one and is definitely in the conversation in the range from 5-10.

 

[samsagat]

I see him as the best defenseman in this draft.

He'll possibly go top 10.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

I never once said he was a perimeter player. I said he couldn't get inside when I was watching him, and that he was able to create from the outside. Those are different claims. What I mean by getting inside is beating the first line cleanly with the puck, getting into the ice that's being denied to the player. I value that ability highly, and just didn't see it in that series.

Your claim was that he was ''toying'' with Seattle? Sorry I didn't see it that way.

Well he got to the inside all series and created chances more than any other player. He entered the zone cleanly. He beat defenders 1-on-1. He turned even-man rush attempts into odd-man chances closer to the goal. He was Winnipeg's most dangerous threat every game by a wide margin. For all the shots he didn't take, he was setting up Savoie and McClennon, and both flubbed multiple chances per game.

It's just a weird claim. He was their best forward in the series, with Ostapchuk a close second for different reasons. Savoie, McClennon, Geekie, Pederson all struggled finishing, especially from prime setups from Benson at ES or on the power play. You're entitled to your opinion, but trying to marginalize what Benson did against the best defense in the CHL seems like you have it out for the kid. He had an excellent series.

 

[samsagat]

Benson has Gallagheresque attitude, but with more talent.

It's a good combination.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Nr.2 as I said...behind a very good import...imports tend to get the most ice time pretty much by default. Also...I'd need to look it up to tell for sure but I feel like most of the difference in TOI probably comes from special teams. Even strength TOI is probably very even Steven. Also, Kellenberger is 36. If you're thinking in pairings, and Kellenberger/Reinbacher love to play with each other (are also buddies off the ice despite the age gap) you probably couldn't force the old man to play more even if you want to. I think it was great like this though. Reinbacher played a lot. Probably far more than any defensemen in this league at his age...ever. The NL is everything but a development league. Unlike for example in the SHL, prospects, let alone foreign ones, are never given the benefit of the doubt. When in doubt, teams just go out and pay a shitload of money to sign some kind of a vet.

Not disagreeing with the context. He deserves credit for doing what he did as a rookie dman in a men's league. Any other draft class, I'd say top-5 lock for sure. And there's not shame being a top-10 pick in this draft. But saying top-5 is really pushing it.

But you can't look at Reinbacher's season in a vaccuum when calling him a top-five pick. At least four forwards had better seasons and it's undisputable. All Reinbacher has a single promising season in the NLA. He's never dominated a tournament. Even in the D1B U18's in 2022, he was good, not great or noteworthy.

Then you have three NTDP forwards with near or record-setting seasons. Then add Dvorsky's domination of the J20 and multiple tournaments where he delivered MVP performances. Then add Sale who had been outstanding at multiple tournaments and produced at Martic Necas levels for the same program in the Extraliga. Then add Benson's domination of the WHL, and Wood dominating tournaments, dominating the BCHL, and putting up a point a game in Hockey East as a freshman.

That's 11 forwards who are not only deserving on going in the top five, but are all ranked ahead of Reinbacher on either Central Scouting's list or consolidated rankings.

It's also one of the weakest defense classes ever. Like in NHL draft history. Doesn't mean there won't be a No. 1 or Norris type to come out of it, but the odds are stacked against this group.

 

[Boxscore]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Flyers snag him at 7th overall. Keith Jones was emphatic about the Flyers building from the defense out. Reinbacher is a big, RHD who is climbing the draft board. assuming all of Smith, Michkov, and Benson are gone by 7, I think the Flyers reach for him over kids like Leonard, Dvorsky, and Moore.

 

[majormajor]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Flyers snag him at 7th overall. Keith Jones was emphatic about the Flyers building from the defense out. Reinbacher is a big, RHD who is climbing the draft board. assuming all of Smith, Michkov, and Benson are gone by 7, I think the Flyers reach for him over kids like Leonard, Dvorsky, and Moore.

Dvorsky or Moore ahead of Reinbacher would feel like more of a reach to me than the other way around. I think Reinbacher is more likely to be a top pair guy than Dvorsky and Moore are to be top line forwards.

But since it's the Flyers doing it it will be called a reach for position. There are still people saying that Gauthier was only picked because the Flyers obsess over size and folks don't realize that he's one of the top prospects in the game.

 

[Hinterland]

Not disagreeing with the context. He deserves credit for doing what he did as a rookie dman in a men's league. Any other draft class, I'd say top-5 lock for sure. And there's not shame being a top-10 pick in this draft. But saying top-5 is really pushing it.

But you can't look at Reinbacher's season in a vaccuum when calling him a top-five pick. At least four forwards had better seasons and it's undisputable. All Reinbacher has a single promising season in the NLA. He's never dominated a tournament. Even in the D1B U18's in 2022, he was good, not great or noteworthy.

Then you have three NTDP forwards with near or record-setting seasons. Then add Dvorsky's domination of the J20 and multiple tournaments where he delivered MVP performances. Then add Sale who had been outstanding at multiple tournaments and produced at Martic Necas levels for the same program in the Extraliga. Then add Benson's domination of the WHL, and Wood dominating tournaments, dominating the BCHL, and putting up a point a game in Hockey East as a freshman.

That's 11 forwards who are not only deserving on going in the top five, but are all ranked ahead of Reinbacher on either Central Scouting's list or consolidated rankings.

It's also one of the weakest defense classes ever. Like in NHL draft history. Doesn't mean there won't be a No. 1 or Norris type to come out of it, but the odds are stacked against this group.

Yeah, that's a very cool story but Reinbacher was an impact player in a very strong league and with the exception of Carlsson, all of those kids played in much weaker leagues. Those tournaments you talk about are almost exclusively kids tournaments with little depth and the top draft prospects you mentioned played on strong teams. It's not completely irrelevant but it takes a lot more to play well vs men for an entire season. Also, do not forget that Reinbacher is actually a 2nd year pro and was an important part of the Kloten team that got promoted. Without that achievement, he's never gonna get such a role on the NL team. He earned it with his strong play in a pro league more than a year before being draft eligible. The SL isn't a very good pro league but it's still better than some of the leagues the fellow top prospects played in their draft season (the WHL for example).

Also...if you think that it's one of the weakest defense groups ever (I don't necessarily agree with this but assuming you're right) then doesn't that mean that Reinbacher could go even earlier than he usually would? I don't really see your point here.

So yeah, as I said many times...we agree it's a deep forward group and Reinbacher most likely won't go top5 but the rest of your post unfortunately doesn't make sense at all.

 

[Boxscore]

Dvorsky or Moore ahead of Reinbacher would feel like more of a reach to me than the other way around. I think Reinbacher is more likely to be a top pair guy than Dvorsky and Moore are to be top line forwards.

But since it's the Flyers doing it it will be called a reach for position. There are still people saying that Gauthier was only picked because the Flyers obsess over size and folks don't realize that he's one of the top prospects in the game.

Many people laughed at Yzerman when he drafted Seider as high as he did. I think a kid like Reinbacher could be nice value at 7, although most mocks have him going 10-12 or so.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Yeah, that's a very cool story but Reinbacher was an impact player in a very strong league and with the exception of Carlsson, all of those kids played in much weaker leagues. Those tournaments you talk about are almost exclusively kids tournaments with little depth and the top draft prospects you mentioned played on strong teams. It's not completely irrelevant but it takes a lot more to play well vs men for an entire season. Also, do not forget that Reinbacher is actually a 2nd year pro and was an important part of the Kloten team who got promoted. Without that achievement, he's never gonna get such a role on the NL team. He earned it with his strong play in a pro league more than a year before being draft eligible. The SL isn't a very good pro league but it's still better than some of the leagues the fellow top prospects played in their draft season (the WHL for example).

Also...if you think that it's one of the weakest defense groups ever (I don't necessarily agree with this but assuming you're right) then doesn't that mean that Reinbacher could go even earlier than he usually would? I don't really see your point here.

So yeah, as I said many times...we agree it's a deep forward group and Reinbacher most likely won't go top5 but the rest of your post unfortunately doesn't make sense at all.

It’s literally the lowest total of Top-20 defenseman on Central Scouting’s watch list and rankings in history. There’s not a single NA defenseman in the top 15 — unprecedented. The lowest in history was 9th — 1999 and 2017 (Makar).

The Euro class is nothing special after four or five prominent names and two are Russian. The Finns, Russians, and Swedes all have top-heavy defense groups. Very little to no depth. Barely any 2005s played a half or full season in adult leagues. That’s not the case in deep defense drafts.

It’s just life. It’s all cyclical. Next year’s draft is LOADED with defensemen. There’s no bias. Just facts. You are heavily biased towards Reinbacher (for whatever reasons) and I don’t think it has anything to do with scouting 100+ defensemen a draft season.

 

[majormajor]

It’s literally the lowest total of Top-20 defenseman on Central Scouting’s watch list and rankings in history. There’s not a single NA defenseman in the top 15 — unprecedented. The lowest in history was 9th — 1999 and 2017 (Makar).

The Euro class is nothing special after four or five prominent names and two are Russian. The Finns, Russians, and Swedes all have top-heavy defense groups. Very little to no depth. Barely any 2005s played a half or full season in adult leagues. That’s not the case in deep defense drafts.

It’s just life. It’s all cyclical. Next year’s draft is LOADED with defensemen. There’s no bias. Just facts. You are heavily biased towards Reinbacher (for whatever reasons) and I don’t think it has anything to do with scouting 100+ defensemen a draft season.

You don't need to waste time going on about the depth of the draft at a given position. It's irrelevant to the scouting process.

Let's look at this particular player's tools and his upside.

 

[NotProkofievian]

It’s literally the lowest total of Top-20 defenseman on Central Scouting’s watch list and rankings in history. There’s not a single NA defenseman in the top 15 — unprecedented. The lowest in history was 9th — 1999 and 2017 (Makar).

The Euro class is nothing special after four or five prominent names and two are Russian. The Finns, Russians, and Swedes all have top-heavy defense groups. Very little to no depth. Barely any 2005s played a half or full season in adult leagues. That’s not the case in deep defense drafts.

It’s just life. It’s all cyclical. Next year’s draft is LOADED with defensemen. There’s no bias. Just facts. You are heavily biased towards Reinbacher (for whatever reasons) and I don’t think it has anything to do with scouting 100+ defensemen a draft season.

So we should rank Reinbacher lower because other defenseman aren't as good as he is?

 

[rt]

I’m with @Steve Kournianos all the way.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

He has almost 100 pro league games already under his belt.
- which includes about 20 play-offs games

World juniors, u18 and u20 age groups
World mens + other mens international games

Sick numbers in the juniors, really impressive numbers last and this season in the pro's.

Most impressive thou, how, how well he plays, his poise, cool in all situations.
Sure one can compare and make all kinds of things, how he is supposedly
not that good but.. there are always two sides in everything.


Before the worlds, i had never seen him play, but these worlds was an eye opener for me
dude is just so good.

 

[Castle8130]

In regards to how Reinbacher stacks up against the top forwards in this draft class, he is probably in that 6-12 talent level. The forwards in this draft class are extremely deep and high-end.

About the 2023 defensemen class as a whole.. There are really only 2 defensemen in this draft class I'd be over the moon to draft. Those two would be Reinbacher and Willander. Even those guys don't quite matchup to the high end defensemen of the last 2 drafts. Then there are a couple other guys like sandin pelikka and Simashev that have some work to do.


So for high-end defensemen, this draft class is really poor. Although, I have found that there are 2nd and 3rd round graded defensemen that will be drafted in the 3-5 rounds, so the depth is there. Most of that depth comes from the CHL and there is tons of promise.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

You don't need to waste time going on about the depth of the draft at a given position. It's irrelevant to the scouting process.

Let's look at this particular player's tools and his upside.

This is false.

Foundations are built through the draft and every draft process now includes analytics on the players and also draft data. Brisbois admitted that Al Murray and his staff use these formulas, and they're the best in the business. There are plenty of copycats. Buffalo's another one. They've had 22 picks in the last three drafts -- only five dmen drafted, and Power the only one above Round 4. All three drafts were run by Adams and Forton.

Strategic planning for roster construction differs from organization to organization, but it can go out 10 years and backwards planned from there. All depends on how in-depth the staff is. Baseball teams started doing this first because of how many rounds their drafts are and all the contractual intricacies.

Analytics teams researching draft trends and hit percentages will say that the top five should be reserved for forwards unless there is a rare defense prospect or a major organizational need for a goalie or defenseman. The 2023 draft offers neither.

It's been well established that this is not the draft to get cute with the top five and address a need. Reinbacher is not BPA at 3, 4 or 5. Anything he can do for a franchise, these forwards will do more, and next year's defensemen can replicate. It's just that kind of year. Shit rebuilding teams didn't tank the season for Bedard and will magically be fine settling with Reinbacher. Their fans should riot.

Teams know full well when a draft is strong, average, or weak. They know where it's strong and where it's weak. In the case of 2023, they know it's historic, and they also know that in 2015 -- the last historic draft class -- that Provorov and Hanifin -- as good as they are -- were drafted ahead of Rantanen, Meier, Barzal, Connor, and several others who have simply had better careers. You can make the argument that Chabot is the best defenseman in that class, and he was 18th OA.

The best defensemen from 2003 were all drafted outside the top 5 and three of them -- Burns, Seabrook, and Weber, were outside the top 10.

Teams will have a chance to draft a Reinbacher in the teens or 20s next year. They will NOT be able to find a Smith or a Dvorsky or a Michkov or a Benson or a Carlsson or a Leonard in the 5-10 range in 2024, let alone the teens or 20s.

One last thing about Seider in 2019 -- that was a need pick through and through. Wings drafted forwards in Round 1 in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, and 2018 (x2). The lone exception was 2016 with the idiotic Cholowski trade/pick, and Yzerman and his staff (and every Wings fan) knew Cholowski after three seasons was not progressing as planned.

The Seider pick is the exception and not the rule. Great pick. Ballsy pick. Probably shouldn't try it again.

 

[PanniniClaus]

My initial viewing came as Austria were prepping for the World Juniors ... I didn't see a one timer, great deception and/or playmaking and nothing overly physical...So I was unimpressed but I think it was German Spitfire that told me he has a first round rating so I went with that. Impossible to glean anything from the games in Halifax as Austria were so overwhelmed.

I liked his first two games of the Worlds.. saw a bit more of the skating and puck moving and a willingness to jump in. I can't say he's a lock of any kind.for stardom.. are we thinking an Adam Larsson? I suppose that would be pretty good. He's not Seider.He's not. .

 

[Steve Kournianos]

So we should rank Reinbacher lower because other defenseman aren't as good as he is?

No. You should rank him lower because there are 10-12 forwards who are simply better prospects with higher upside and have lived up to or exceeded expectations from two years ago.

Reinbacher has not done more than any of those forwards. If any of those forwards screwed up, had legitimate red flags, or showed visible concerns or had catatrophic injuries, sure, rank Reinbacher ahead of them. But that's not the case. Every forward ranked ahead of him has delivered on expectations. Insanely rare for a draft class.

 

[majormajor]

This is false.

Foundations are built through the draft and every draft process now includes analytics on the players and also draft data. Brisbois admitted that Al Murray and his staff use these formulas, and they're the best in the business. There are plenty of copycats. Buffalo's another one. They've had 22 picks in the last three drafts -- only five dmen drafted, and Power the only one above Round 4. All three drafts were run by Adams and Forton.

Strategic planning for roster construction differs from organization to organization, but it can go out 10 years and backwards planned from there. All depends on how in-depth the staff is. Baseball teams started doing this first because of how many rounds their drafts are and all the contractual intricacies.

Analytics teams researching draft trends and hit percentages will say that the top five should be reserved for forwards unless there is a rare defense prospect or a major organizational need for a goalie or defenseman. The 2023 draft offers neither.

It's been well established that this is not the draft to get cute with the top five and address a need. Reinbacher is not BPA at 3, 4 or 5. Anything he can do for a franchise, these forwards will do more, and next year's defensemen can replicate. It's just that kind of year. Shit rebuilding teams didn't tank the season for Bedard and will magically be fine settling with Reinbacher. Their fans should riot.

Teams know full well when a draft is strong, average, or weak. They know where it's strong and where it's weak. In the case of 2023, they know it's historic, and they also know that in 2015 -- the last historic draft class -- that Provorov and Hanifin -- as good as they are -- were drafted ahead of Rantanen, Meier, Barzal, Connor, and several others who have simply had better careers. You can make the argument that Chabot is the best defenseman in that class, and he was 18th OA.

The best defensemen from 2003 were all drafted outside the top 5 and three of them -- Burns, Seabrook, and Weber, were outside the top 10.

Teams will have a chance to draft a Reinbacher in the teens or 20s next year. They will NOT be able to find a Smith or a Dvorsky or a Michkov or a Benson or a Carlsson or a Leonard in the 5-10 range in 2024, let alone the teens or 20s.

One last thing about Seider in 2019 -- that was a need pick through and through. Wings drafted forwards in Round 1 in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, and 2018 (x2). The lone exception was 2016 with the idiotic Cholowski trade/pick, and Yzerman and his staff (and every Wings fan) knew Cholowski after three seasons was not progressing as planned.

The Seider pick is the exception and not the rule. Great pick. Ballsy pick. Probably shouldn't try it again.

If your scouts come to you as a GM and they say they prefer Reinbacher to Dvorsky, all questions of need aside, [I think he'll play higher in the lineup than Dvorsky] do you go back at them with all this stuff about the historic forward crop?

You keep calling it a need pick and the folks that prefer Reinbacher keep telling you no it's not, and you call it a need pick again, and it's just annoying. Our evaluations of the player's upside are just different, let's leave it at that.

 

[Hinterland]

It’s literally the lowest total of Top-20 defenseman on Central Scouting’s watch list and rankings in history. There’s not a single NA defenseman in the top 15 — unprecedented. The lowest in history was 9th — 1999 and 2017 (Makar).

The Euro class is nothing special after four or five prominent names and two are Russian. The Finns, Russians, and Swedes all have top-heavy defense groups. Very little to no depth. Barely any 2005s played a half or full season in adult leagues. That’s not the case in deep defense drafts.

It’s just life. It’s all cyclical. Next year’s draft is LOADED with defensemen. There’s no bias. Just facts. You are heavily biased towards Reinbacher (for whatever reasons) and I don’t think it has anything to do with scouting 100+ defensemen a draft season.

Not sure why I would be.

Also, I watch a lot of hockey...besides NHL mostly the draft eligible kids but I wouldn't call myself a scout.

Having said that, I don't think me or anybody else in this thread really disagreed about the scouting reports on Reinbacher or his fellow 2023 top prospects. I, and probably most others even agree with you Reinbacher probably won't go top5 because there are lots of good forwards and just a very unclear picture overall across large parts of the 1st round with many seemingly similarly skilled/talented kids available.

It's just that me, and from what I read a few others as well, think that most of your other conclusions regarding this draft class you shared in this thread don't make much sense.