D David Reinbacher - EHC Kloten, NL (2023, 5th, MTL)

[Hinterland]

No. You should rank him lower because there are 10-12 forwards who are simply better prospects with higher upside and have lived up to or exceeded expectations from two years ago.

Reinbacher has not done more than any of those forwards. If any of those forwards screwed up, had legitimate red flags, or showed visible concerns or had catatrophic injuries, sure, rank Reinbacher ahead of them. But that's not the case. Every forward ranked ahead of him has delivered on expectations. Insanely rare for a draft class.

I like the forward group but I don't think there's more than 10 forwards with clearly higher upside than Reinbacher. There's Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, Michkov and the rest I see in the same tier as Reinbacher.

Also, they may have met expectations but with the exception of Carlsson they all played in clearly lower tier leagues. Mason McTavish and Brennan Othmann said in interviews that SL (not a good pro league) is still much better than OHL and that the difference is huge particularly in terms of goaltending, physicality (both weaknesses of the SL compared to similar leagues) and skating. Of course that's the league Reinbacher dominated a year before being draft eligible. In his draft year he played the best season of a European draft eligible defenseman since Rasmus Dahlin. European prospects, let alone defensemen, are hardly ever relied upon impact players at the highest level in Europe.

I'm not gonna shit on the Canadian junior leagues. I watch them quite a bit and they're, together with Sweden, the best way to develop for most draft prospects. Having said that, you can dominate your fellow kids and still suck in the NHL. Even as a forward. Gilbert Brulé scored 30 friggen points in one playoff run and still wasn't even close from sticking in the NHL. Second year pro's drafted out of Europe, especially with a draft season like Reinbacher's, are probably safer picks.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

If your scouts come to you as a GM and they say they prefer Reinbacher to Dvorsky, all questions of need aside, [I think he'll play higher in the lineup than Dvorsky] do you go back at them with all this stuff about the historic forward crop?

You keep calling it a need pick and the folks that prefer Reinbacher keep telling you no it's not, and you call it a need pick again, and it's just annoying. Our evaluations of the player's upside are just different, let's leave it at that.

But it's not just Dvorsky. That's my point. If you draft Reinbacher 3-5, that means you're passing on a group that would likely include Carlsson, Michkov, Smith, Leonard, Dvorsky, and Benson, and then after that Sale, Wood, Perreault, and Danielson.

If that's the case, then the GM would be ignorant to not hear an explanation for each and every player their passing on, and why Reinbacher is the choice.

Listen, I can rank Yager at five and call him BPA just for shits and giggles. Doesn't mean it's right.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

I like the forward group but I don't think there's more than 10 forwards with clearly higher upside than Reinbacher. There's Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, Michkov and the rest I see in the same tier as Reinbacher.

Also, they may have met expectations but with the exception of Carlsson they all played in clearly lower tier leagues. Mason McTavish and Othmann said in interviews that SL (not a good pro league) is still much better than OHL and that the difference is huge particularly in terms of goaltending, physicality (both weaknesses of the SL compared to similar leagues) and skating. Of course that's the league Reinbacher dominated a year before being draft eligible. In his draft year he played the best season of a European draft eligible defenseman since Rasmus Dahlin. European prospects, let alone defensemen, are hardly ever relied upon impact players at the highest level in Europe.

I'm not gonna shit on the Canadian junior leagues. I watch them quite a bit and they're, together with Sweden, the best way to develop for most draft prospects. Having said that, you can dominate your fellow kids and still suck in the NHL. Even as a forward. Gilbert Brulé scored 30 friggen points in one playoff run and still wasn't even close from sticking in the NHL. Second year pro's drafted out of Europe, especially with a draft season like Reinbacher's, are probably safer picks.

You don't draft safe picks in the top five. You draft difference makers. Jersey sellers. Arena packers. All stars. Award winners. This draft offers more of that than any draft in almost 10 years and might be even better.

I think Reinbacher will be a very good NHL defenseman and have a long career. He'll put up points and potentially be on a top pairing. But if I want to generate excitement, increase ticket sales, and have my player on a video game cover, I'm drafting an electrifying forward in 2023, and let my scouts handle the defenseman issue in 2024. Simple as that.

 

[majormajor]

But it's not just Dvorsky. That's my point. If you draft Reinbacher 3-5, that means you're passing on a group that would likely include Carlsson, Michkov, Smith, Leonard, Dvorsky, and Benson, and then after that Sale, Wood, Perreault, and Danielson.

If that's the case, then the GM would be ignorant to not hear an explanation for each and every player their passing on, and why Reinbacher is the choice.

That's true for every player, you have to make the case that they're better than everyone else on the board. It doesn't matter what position they play, or if the other 10 players are all forwards or some are forwards and some are D.

 

[Hinterland]

You don't draft safe picks in the top five. You draft difference makers. Jersey sellers. Arena packers. All stars. Award winners. This draft offers more of that than any draft in almost 10 years and might be even better.

I think Reinbacher will be a very good NHL defenseman and have a long career. He'll put up points and potentially be on a top pairing. But if I want to generate excitement, increase ticket sales, and have my player on a video game cover, I'm drafting an electrifying forward in 2023, and let my scouts handle the defenseman issue in 2024. Simple as that.

I don't disagree with this. Just want to remind you that just a couple of pages ago you called Reinbacher "risky"...that it would be a "risk" to draft him ahead of say Dvorsky.

 

[GermanSpitfire]

No. You should rank him lower because there are 10-12 forwards who are simply better prospects with higher upside and have lived up to or exceeded expectations from two years ago.

Reinbacher has not done more than any of those forwards. If any of those forwards screwed up, had legitimate red flags, or showed visible concerns or had catatrophic injuries, sure, rank Reinbacher ahead of them. But that's not the case. Every forward ranked ahead of him has delivered on expectations. Insanely rare for a draft class.

I appreciate your opinion and am always open to conflicting view points. That being said you‘ve been coming across as if what you’re stating is a fact, when in truth - it’s just your opinion on the subject.

What it comes down to, is what you expect Reinbacher to become once he reaches the NHL? If you think he really only has top-4 potential, then I think a 10-15 ranking in this class is fair, and I would agree with most of what you would say.

My opinion is that he has #1 D potential however, because of it I ranked him at number 4 in my final ranking. It’s absolutely reasonable to select a defender that high if you believe he has #1 potential, no matter how strong the forward class is perceived. A right shot #1 D inherentlly has more value than a #1 winger or a #2 centre.

 

[elchud]

There are at any given time, 25 to 30 #1 RHD. Are all of them in the top #150 ranked players in the league? Probably not...

I think Reinbacher is 11-15 but could and perhaps should be drafted in the 7-10 range, as in baseball you put a premium on catcher/shortstop/2nd base.

The top 6 forwards in this draft aren't just sure fire 1st line forwards, but should be stars in the league. Reinbacher as a 1RHD doesn't mean as much even at the prime position. Again there are 30 of those in the league.

 

[lanky]

It’s literally the lowest total of Top-20 defenseman on Central Scouting’s watch list and rankings in history. There’s not a single NA defenseman in the top 15 — unprecedented. The lowest in history was 9th — 1999 and 2017 (Makar).

The Euro class is nothing special after four or five prominent names and two are Russian. The Finns, Russians, and Swedes all have top-heavy defense groups. Very little to no depth. Barely any 2005s played a half or full season in adult leagues. That’s not the case in deep defense drafts.

It’s just life. It’s all cyclical. Next year’s draft is LOADED with defensemen. There’s no bias. Just facts.

These facts are nice.
Also, Reinbacher is really good.
A bumper crop of D next draft doesn't preclude Reinbacher from being really good.
A lack of high end D in this draft doesn't preclude Reinbacher from being really good.

 

[German Hockey]

completely disagree with some of Steve Kournianos statements:

1. Reinbacher has done significantly more than most of the forwards ranked in the top 10, BECAUSE he has been playing in a men's league, whereas the NA forwards played against kids.
2. Reinbacher was named third best D-Man in the Swiss Top League. Just to put this into perspective:
Sami Vatanen the ex-NHLer with more than 470 NHL games under his belt was only ranked at 8.
3. What exactly has Dvorsky done so far. Just look at his mediocre numbers in the SECOND - Tier league in Sweden the Allsvenskan. His production hasn't been great. Production was average at best.
4. @ Steve: curious how you compare a defensive prospect with a forward?
5. your statement that Seider was the exception is completely wrong. Just look at the draft results of the last 3 years. Nemec at #2, Jiricek # 6 in 2022 then you have Luke Hughes # 4, you have Korcinski #6 Clarke at # 8 to LA. This is indicating a MAJOR SHIFT towards D-Man taken in the top 10. Teams recognize how important it is in today's game to have talent on the Blueline. Just look at the Hurricanes, they made to the Eastern conference finals only because of the excellent blue line.
6. statement that Reinbacher is "risky" is not true. He's a safe pick, because he has been playing against men for two years. NA forwards are more risky because you don't know how their game translates to the pro-game.
It's pretty simple: Reinbacher will go top 10, either the Habs select him at #5 or the Caps or the Red Wings will take him. Yzerman is smart enough to take him once he get's past Washington.
End of story.

 

[Seb]

Calling Reinbacher a reach at 5 is hilarious considering he's bound to be picked 5-9 and most players in the 5-9 range are interchangeable.

 

[57special]

Any good Dman will be more valued in a D poor draft.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

This is crappy draft for North American defensemen. that has created a narrative that it is bad overall for d. The quality of European defenders is still strong. Reinbacher, the Swedes, the Russians, all of these look to be of strong quality, at least at the top. if there are 12-14 forwards taken at top half of first round, the chances that all of them are better than the D drafted in same range is super small. Once you get outside top 4-5 picks this year, it’s not unlikely that a d will be best choice.

 

[ginomini]

This is false.

Foundations are built through the draft and every draft process now includes analytics on the players and also draft data. Brisbois admitted that Al Murray and his staff use these formulas, and they're the best in the business. There are plenty of copycats. Buffalo's another one. They've had 22 picks in the last three drafts -- only five dmen drafted, and Power the only one above Round 4. All three drafts were run by Adams and Forton.

Strategic planning for roster construction differs from organization to organization, but it can go out 10 years and backwards planned from there. All depends on how in-depth the staff is. Baseball teams started doing this first because of how many rounds their drafts are and all the contractual intricacies.

Analytics teams researching draft trends and hit percentages will say that the top five should be reserved for forwards unless there is a rare defense prospect or a major organizational need for a goalie or defenseman. The 2023 draft offers neither.

It's been well established that this is not the draft to get cute with the top five and address a need. Reinbacher is not BPA at 3, 4 or 5. Anything he can do for a franchise, these forwards will do more, and next year's defensemen can replicate. It's just that kind of year. Shit rebuilding teams didn't tank the season for Bedard and will magically be fine settling with Reinbacher. Their fans should riot.

Teams know full well when a draft is strong, average, or weak. They know where it's strong and where it's weak. In the case of 2023, they know it's historic, and they also know that in 2015 -- the last historic draft class -- that Provorov and Hanifin -- as good as they are -- were drafted ahead of Rantanen, Meier, Barzal, Connor, and several others who have simply had better careers. You can make the argument that Chabot is the best defenseman in that class, and he was 18th OA.

The best defensemen from 2003 were all drafted outside the top 5 and three of them -- Burns, Seabrook, and Weber, were outside the top 10.

Teams will have a chance to draft a Reinbacher in the teens or 20s next year. They will NOT be able to find a Smith or a Dvorsky or a Michkov or a Benson or a Carlsson or a Leonard in the 5-10 range in 2024, let alone the teens or 20s.

One last thing about Seider in 2019 -- that was a need pick through and through. Wings drafted forwards in Round 1 in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, and 2018 (x2). The lone exception was 2016 with the idiotic Cholowski trade/pick, and Yzerman and his staff (and every Wings fan) knew Cholowski after three seasons was not progressing as planned.

The Seider pick is the exception and not the rule. Great pick. Ballsy pick. Probably shouldn't try it again.

You can make an entire argument based on historical data and draft trends as long as you want, hey you could even write a book about it.
But at the end of the day, it is all hinged on the fact that you prefer the forwards over him. That’s not a fact, that’s an opinion. All the data in the world will not make it a fact.

Why can’t you just accept that?

 

[rt]

Calling Reinbacher a reach at 5 is hilarious considering he's bound to be picked 5-9 and most players in the 5-9 range are interchangeable.

Here are four NHL scouts all saying that he’s a reach before 10th, or so…

NHL scouts poll: Who should the Canucks be hoping for with the 11th pick?

To get a sense of the industry view of the 2023 draft class, we reached out to veteran amateur talent evaluators from across the league.

theathletic.com

And here’s an average of ten NHL scouts, rating him at 10th overall…

Plenty of intrigue after Connor Bedard in Bob McKenzie's NHL Draft Lottery Edition ranking | TSN

There is no doubt whatsoever who will be taken No. 1 overall in the talent-laden 2023 NHL Draft. Beyond that, though, at Nos. 2 through 5? Check out TSN Hockey Insider Bob McKenzie's Top 12 Lottery Edition Draft Ranking.

www.tsn.ca

 

[rt]

A few short snippets from the very long and very good Drance article above. Everyone should subscribe and read all of his content.

 

[Hinterland]

A few short snippets from the very long and very good Drance article above. Everyone should subscribe and read all of his content.

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You still believe this shit isn't made up?

Despite two of those so called "scouts", nr.1+3, saying Reinbacher would be scoring lots of secondary assists? Which of course is as false as it gets because Reinbacher has a pretty unique assist split the other way around.

 

[rt]

O

You still believe this shit isn't made up?

Despite two of those so called "scouts", nr.1+3 saying Reinbacher would be scoring lots of secondary assists? Which of course is as false as it gets because Reinbacher has a pretty unique assist split the other way around.

Of course it’s not made up. If you believe this is made up, you need some help. To talk to somebody.

 

[Hinterland]

O

Of course it’s not made up. If you believe this is made up, you need some help. To talk to somebody.

So 2 of 4 "scouts" put out the same fake news and I'm the one in need of help? It's also not like the rest of these hot takes would make any sort of sense. The Athletic is a complete scam.

 

[rt]

So 2 of 4 "scouts" put out the same fake news and I'm the one in need of help? It's also not like the rest of these hot takes would make any sort of sense. The Athletic is a complete scam.

You need to reevaluate your perception of reality.

 

[FriarChill]

You still believe this shit isn't made up?

Despite two of those so called "scouts", nr.1+3, saying Reinbacher would be scoring lots of secondary assists? Which of course is as false as it gets because Reinbacher has a pretty unique assist split the other way around.

This. I read those opinions but hard to take them serious if 50% can't read a stat sheet and claim Reinbacher is all about secondary assists

 

[PanniniClaus]

Gonna be a fascinating draft... the amount of debate here has me excited for it.

 

[Hinterland]

You need to reevaluate your perception of reality.

You're a 1min (max, if you're slow) google search away from finding out about the reality. That would also mean you have done more research than the athletic clowns for their article.

 

[CoachWithNoTeam]

I feel like all of the defensemen mentioned in that article are being under-valued just because there was already a perception that it was a bad year for defensemen going into the season, which was mostly based around there not being a D that could ever challenge for a top 3 pick. Reinbacher a late 1st quality guy? I think there are 5-6 guys that teams would be happy with in a few years if they drafted in the top 20. Two of them being Russian is also tanking the public perception of the quality. It’s just not a great year for North American defensemen.

 

[rt]

It’s a circus in here. I’m out.

 

[Hinterland]

It’s a circus in here. I’m out.

If you don't like circus then you probably should cancel your athletic subscription. Who'd pay for fake news anyway.