D David Reinbacher - EHC Kloten, NL (2023, 5th, MTL)

JT3

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We teach it in rugby and I feel like it can probably apply in hockey as well - don't jump into contact. I know he was trying to split the D there but he put himself in a tough situation.

Hope the rumour is true and there is no serious damage. Would love to see him return to the tournament, he's one of my favorite prospects this year and can definitely see him going in the 5-8 range.
 

wetcoast

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Seider went higher than anyone anticipated but that doesn’t mean he was a worse player than Reinbacher in his draft year. Seider was a full-time pro with a high-end team, played at the men’s worlds and world juniors – the same as Reinbacher. Seider was a near-unanimous top-20 pick and a high-end prospect.

The thing is, while they have some big differences, there are also similarities. So now prospect watchers see Reinbacher, a big German-speaking right-shot D playing pro in Europe, and go “hey look, he’s the next Seider”. While there were multiple strong D options in Seider’s draft – even though none of them developed like he did – Reinbacher is the consensus top D, which means he’ll be ranked much higher. Despite all that, he’s still ranked anywhere from 8 to 25 or something.
Fair enough but most "prospect watchers" knew that one was way more dynamic and the other was a more steady eddy type of prospect.
 

Mrb1p

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Fair enough but most "prospect watchers" knew that one was way more dynamic and the other was a more steady eddy type of prospect.
Theres a video of him trying to split the D in the world championship as a 18 years old just a page ago and you label him a steady-eddy ? Thats funny.
 

wetcoast

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Theres a video of him trying to split the D in the world championship as a 18 years old just a page ago and you label him a steady-eddy ? Thats funny.
He simply isn't as dynamic as Seider at the same age as they are different type of defenders.
 

Hale The Villain

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They're different in style but Reinbacher is clearly a much better player now than Seider was in his draft year. As I said before, drafted out of Europe, the lone comparable player in terms of where he was at the draft is Rasmus Dahlin. Seider was not that good. He was worse by any metrics and that's playing on a title winning team in a worse league. Reinbacher played on a bad team (that just got promoted) in one of Europe's top leagues.

That says nothing about potential of course. Development is never linear and there's no guarantee Reinbacher is gonna develop the way Seider did. However, you can't claim that Seider was even close from Reinbacher ahead of the draft. He wasn't. As I mentioned I did look into this and among active NHL defenders the only comparable drafted out of Europe is Rasmus Dahlin. Everybody else did not have that kind of an impact at the highest European level in their draft year. Doesn't mean that Dahlin and Reinbacher are gonna have better careers than all other Europeans out there but they sure had pretty special draft years.

That's only because Reinbacher is a late birthday and is playing out his 18YR old season before being drafted, while Seider got drafted after his 17YR old season.

In the same development year as Reinbacher is in now Seider had 22 points in 49 games in the AHL. The proper year to compare Seider's draft year is Reinbacher's previous season, where he had 11 points in 27 games in the Swiss B league.

You'd have to be ignorant of this and uncritically compare the two at different years of development to think Reinbacher is far better at the same age.
 
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JT3

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That's only because Reinbacher is a late birthday and is playing out his 18YR old season before being drafted, while Seider got drafted after his 17YR old season.

In the same development year as Reinbacher is in now Seider had 22 points in 49 games in the AHL. The proper year to compare Seider's draft year is Reinbacher's previous season, where he had 11 points in 27 games in the Swiss B league.

You'd have to be ignorant of this and uncritically compare the two at different years of development to think Reinbacher is far better at the same age.
I can understand some small adjustments in context based on age, but Reinbacher is an Oct 25 birthday to Seiders Apr 5. I don't think it's that significant. Unless we should be comparing Fantilli's previous season to Will Smith's current one? They have a similar age gap. Does that make Smith better than Fantilli?

Using that argument to say that they're closer than stats would suggest is fair, but it's entirely true that Reinbacher had a better draft season than Seider did.
 

Hale The Villain

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I can understand some small adjustments in context based on age, but Reinbacher is an Oct 25 birthday to Seiders Apr 5. I don't think it's that significant. Unless we should be comparing Fantilli's previous season to Will Smith's current one? They have a similar age gap. Does that make Smith better than Fantilli?

Using that argument to say that they're closer than stats would suggest is fair, but it's entirely true that Reinbacher had a better draft season than Seider did.

Yes.

Fantilli is an '04, Smith is an '05. This is why Fantilli played two seasons in the USHL and then this year in the NCAA, while Smith is only in his second USHL season.

Smith's USHL season at the same age is better than Fantilli's was, but it's not that simple. NHL scouts know Fantilli is a year ahead in development, but the question is how they project as NHLers. Part of that projection is trying to determine whether next year Smith will be as good as Fantilli is this year, and that's very doubtful. Fantilli took a massive step forward in his 18YR old development season and deserves to go higher than Smith because of it, even if his USHL numbers at the same age weren't as impressive.

Reinbacher took a big step forward in his 18YR old development year and deserves to go high in the draft. It's also true he is better in his draft year than Seider was in his, but that's because he has an extra year of development pre-draft due to the stupid Sep 15 cut-off, which is only in place to prevent minors from playing in the NHL and leads to late-birthdays getting an extra year to impress scouts, in this case late '04s not being drafted with their '04 peers but rather '05s, even though they've played mainly with '04s their entire careers.
 
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GermanSpitfire

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What does dynamic even mean when it comes to prospects? Like, Reinbacher is static or something?
I don't even know anymore, it's just a buzzword that gets thrown around these days. Seider is a beast but I don't know if 'dynamic' is how I would have ever described him? Was Shea Weber dynamic?
Dynamic as in he is able to push the pace of the offence better, he activates/pinches more often from the blueline to open scoring lanes, or give his teammates another passing option - he isn‘t afraid to join the rush and all and all
looks like the more dangerous offensive player in their respective draft seasons.

This is just my opinion of how he is more dynamic of course
 
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JT3

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Yes.

Fantilli is an '04, Smith is an '05. This is why Fantilli played two seasons in the USHL and then this year in the NCAA, while Smith is only in his second USHL season.

Smith's USHL season at the same age is better than Fantilli's was, but it's not that simple. NHL scouts know Fantilli is a year ahead in development, but the question is how they project as NHLers. Part of that projection is trying to determine whether next year Smith will be as good as Fantilli is this year, and that's very doubtful. Fantilli took a massive step forward in his 18YR old development season and deserves to go higher than Smith because of it, even if his USHL numbers at the same age weren't as impressive.

Reinbacher took a big step forward in his 18YR old development year and deserves to go high in the draft. It's also true he is better in his draft year than Seider was in his, but that's because he has an extra year of development pre-draft due to the stupid Sep 15 cut-off, which is only in place to prevent minors from playing in the NHL and leads to late-birthdays getting an extra year to impress scouts, in this case late '04s not being drafted with their '04 peers but rather '05s, even though they've played mainly with '04s their entire careers.
Fair enough, I can respect that opinion, although I don't necessarily think it's as big a factor as you believe it to be, and historically NHL teams don't really either. Certainly worth taking into context though when comparing players.
 
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NotProkofievian

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Dynamic as in he is able to push the pace of the offence better, he activates/pinches more often from the blueline to open scoring lanes, or give his teammates another passing option - he isn‘t afraid to join the rush and all and all
looks like the more dangerous offensive player in their respective draft seasons.

This is just my opinion of how he is more dynamic of course

Reinbacher does that stuff a lot. The thing you don't really see from him is using dangles to beat the first forechecker. He can be a really valuable player without doing that stuff, keeping things simple, relying on his passing to mix things up, but if he can develop an ability to move shinpads and sticks out of the way, he could be really good.
 

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Reinbacher does that stuff a lot. The thing you don't really see from him is using dangles to beat the first forechecker. He can be a really valuable player without doing that stuff, keeping things simple, relying on his passing to mix things up, but if he can develop an ability to move shinpads and sticks out of the way, he could be really good.
Exactly. Reinbacher takes more risks without the puck than he does with it. Probably feels like he doesn't have to as he's, thanks to outstanding vision and mobility, usually very quick to find a great passing option even with little time and space. He's also not quite as strong on the puck as Seider so they're quite different in style.
 

GermanSpitfire

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Reinbacher does that stuff a lot. The thing you don't really see from him is using dangles to beat the first forechecker. He can be a really valuable player without doing that stuff, keeping things simple, relying on his passing to mix things up, but if he can develop an ability to move shinpads and sticks out of the way, he could be really good.
Correct, puck skills are an issue and it’s something I would like to see improved with his game.

Another thing i‘d like to see improvement on is he’s able to get a zone entry‘s by himself and is good at doing so - but as soon as he does he is looking to move the puck to someone else and rarely Carry’s the puck deep into the offensive zone, it‘s like he’s scared to leave the point. I would like to see him take initiative and bring the puck into the zone past the hash marks and maybe find a better passing lane, or scoring opportunity doing this, showing more confidence in his vision and dangerous offensive abilities.
What’s funny is that this is only a problem when he is entering the zone in transition, once his team gets any sustained zone time Reinbacher is able to activate from the blueline with no problems and is something I really appreciate about his game.
 

MS

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I'm not sure why Seider comes up so often in Reinbacher discussions or what the two players really have to do with one another.

It would be like having a Will Smith thread where like half the posts were about whether he was better or worse than Clayton Keller at the same age.
 

WarriorofTime

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Fair enough, I can respect that opinion, although I don't necessarily think it's as big a factor as you believe it to be, and historically NHL teams don't really either. Certainly worth taking into context though when comparing players.
That guy you replied to is obsessed with negging every late birthday for being a "year older", but it's not really how things work. NHL GMs look at "how good is the player, how quickly can he make an NHL team, how good can he become?" All players in a draft year are born within a calendar year of each other (assuming first time eligible) and are looked at on the same sphere. They aren't scouting for future world junior teams, so the "late birthdays" aren't getting dinged. Your original inclination is correct, if a player is 6 months older, then it's a small consideration but a minor one.

This is especially the case when comparing players that have had completely different development paths. If two guys are from the same development path, maybe it's a bit more relevant. To give an example, in the '07 draft, the top two picks as you had it were Patrick Kane and James Van Riemsdyk. Both went to the USNDTP, Kane was a November birthday so he played with the '88 team and was too young to enter the '06 Draft following his team's graduation from the program, so he did a year in London in the OHL for his draft year. JVR was a May birthday so he played with the '89 team and entered the draft following his team's graduation from the program. So you can look at Kane being ahead in that respect, but in terms of which player you take, you're still just looking at those three factors and maybe noting that since they're still pretty young has about 5-6 more months of physical maturity to catch up to.

But when comparing players that are like WHL, USNDTP, NCAA, Swedish Professional, Russian Professional, Swiss Professional, etc. etc., it's not part of the equation at all as there's not a 1 for 1 comparison in any of those.
 

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Correct, puck skills are an issue and it’s something I would like to see improved with his game.

Another thing i‘d like to see improvement on is he’s able to get a zone entry‘s by himself and is good at doing so - but as soon as he does he is looking to move the puck to someone else and rarely Carry’s the puck deep into the offensive zone, it‘s like he’s scared to leave the point. I would like to see him take initiative and bring the puck into the zone past the hash marks and maybe find a better passing lane, or scoring opportunity doing this, showing more confidence in his vision and dangerous offensive abilities.
What’s funny is that this is only a problem when he is entering the zone in transition, once his team gets any sustained zone time Reinbacher is able to activate from the blueline with no problems and is something I really appreciate about his game.
I like his puck skills. Making the quality quick plays he does takes lots of puck skills as well.

I think it's a combination of his preference for moving pucks quickly and being the open man and a certain lack of strength on the puck that leads to him not wanting to skate with the puck a lot. I don't think it's a skill issue. Maybe confidence issue since he's well aware he needs to work on his body. He said that himself. As he fills out I'm sure he'll be more confident with the puck but he probably won't ever skate across the ice with the puck on his stick the way Seider does. Just not his thing stylewise.
 
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NotProkofievian

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Correct, puck skills are an issue and it’s something I would like to see improved with his game.

Another thing i‘d like to see improvement on is he’s able to get a zone entry‘s by himself and is good at doing so - but as soon as he does he is looking to move the puck to someone else and rarely Carry’s the puck deep into the offensive zone, it‘s like he’s scared to leave the point. I would like to see him take initiative and bring the puck into the zone past the hash marks and maybe find a better passing lane, or scoring opportunity doing this, showing more confidence in his vision and dangerous offensive abilities.
What’s funny is that this is only a problem when he is entering the zone in transition, once his team gets any sustained zone time Reinbacher is able to activate from the blueline with no problems and is something I really appreciate about his game.

Definitely. I've watched Guhle develop these skills with the habs, he was doing stuff this year that I had never seen before. The thing that makes me think that Reinbacher will develop in this direction is that he's generally a thinking player, and an aggressive one at that. Enough time and he'll start figuring out more ways to have an impact offensively.

I did some digging and more than 2/3rds of his points were primary, and almost all of them were EV. Lots of room for growth.
 

Hinterland

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I'm not sure why Seider comes up so often in Reinbacher discussions or what the two players really have to do with one another.

It would be like having a Will Smith thread where like half the posts were about whether he was better or worse than Clayton Keller at the same age.
They're both big German speaking defenders and they're fast risers in their draft year. That's why.
 

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That guy you replied to is obsessed with negging every late birthday for being a "year older", but it's not really how things work. NHL GMs look at "how good is the player, how quickly can he make an NHL team, how good can he become?" All players in a draft year are born within a calendar year of each other (assuming first time eligible) and are looked at on the same sphere. They aren't scouting for future world junior teams, so the "late birthdays" aren't getting dinged. Your original inclination is correct, if a player is 6 months older, then it's a small consideration but a minor one.

This is especially the case when comparing players that have had completely different development paths. If two guys are from the same development path, maybe it's a bit more relevant. To give an example, in the '07 draft, the top two picks as you had it were Patrick Kane and James Van Riemsdyk. Both went to the USNDTP, Kane was a November birthday so he played with the '88 team and was too young to enter the '06 Draft following his team's graduation from the program, so he did a year in London in the OHL for his draft year. JVR was a May birthday so he played with the '89 team and entered the draft following his team's graduation from the program. So you can look at Kane being ahead in that respect, but in terms of which player you take, you're still just looking at those three factors and maybe noting that since they're still pretty young has about 5-6 more months of physical maturity to catch up to.

But when comparing players that are like WHL, USNDTP, NCAA, Swedish Professional, Russian Professional, Swiss Professional, etc. etc., it's not part of the equation at all as there's not a 1 for 1 comparison in any of those.

Just trying to educate people on what should be an obvious factor in projecting prospects. Your inability to understand it, or perhaps unwillingness to understand it, matters not.

As I said in my post, scouts care about how a player projects as an NHL player, not merely about production at lower levels. However, obviously production in a certain development year has a strong correlation to success at future levels, and if a scout were to make the mistake of failing to identify that a late-birthday is obviously a year ahead in development compared to a non-late-birthday, they'd likely overestimate the potential of that prospect relative to their peers.

That's exactly what the poster did comparing Reinbacher's draft year to Seider's draft year, as if it were a like-to-like comparison.
 

WarriorofTime

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Just trying to educate people on what should be an obvious factor in projecting prospects. Your inability to understand it, or perhaps unwillingness to understand it, matters not.

As I said in my post, scouts care about how a player projects as an NHL player, not merely about production at lower levels. However, obviously production in a certain development year has a strong correlation to success at future levels, and if a scout were to make the mistake of failing to identify that a late-birthday is obviously a year ahead in development compared to a non-late-birthday, they'd likely overestimate the potential of that prospect relative to their peers.

That's exactly what the poster did comparing Reinbacher's draft year to Seider's draft year, as if it were a like-to-like comparison.
But your assertion in projecting prospects simply is not correct. There is no historical basis for it. The idea that scouts look at two prospects in the same draft class, look at one kid's Draft Year season and look at the other's D -1 year season in order to get a like to like comparison is so comical that you'd be laughed out of a scouting room if you tried to bring it up.
 

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