It seems like speculation abounds with the release date, but I think the simplest explanation is some combination of financial pressure and them just f***ing it up due to poor management. I have read but not seen cited that they had a Polish government grant tied up in releasing in 2020. I don't think there's a world where delaying the game yet again would have actually costed them much except perhaps in investor confidence. The game was going to sell massive amounts of copies whenever it was released, and so the conclusion I would draw from that is some combination of willing the release date to not be pushed again and a poor handle on the base console performance (both due to mismanagement and indifference/lying about what they knew).
The most sympathetic angle I can take is that the pandemic really hindered them in more ways than one for a long period of time. It's easy to just endlessly speculate with counterfactuals at this point, but you have to wonder if they wouldn't have just been better off indefinitely delaying the game earlier this year. It seems like delaying from a concrete date to another concrete date is another contributing factor to this blowback, because the issues that have come to light make you wonder how they could have ever thought the game would have been ready last April, let alone the dates they ended up pushing it to,
And from what I understand, given the budget, releasing on PC only and then console next fall/winter wouldn't have really been viable. Here I think there is still a question of how these large corporation finances work – and I have no clue or interest in finding out too many specifics – but even with big revenues elsewhere, the pressure they are facing is making back the expenses that they put into Cyberpunk 2077 as well.
For all the hubbub, they did make that back with the launch, so I guess we'll find out how bad the refund hits their numbers. It does seem a little bit like this latest refund push is a sort of hail mary: the window is very short for asking, won't cover any copies people bought for gifts unless gift givers are returning them, so the narrative seems like it might become, "we made up for the bad console release, now you must bear with us as we fix the game." I guess digital refunds (except Sony, though it remains to be seen when they'll even re-list the game) are still possible, but that's the read of the whole situation I have.
Going forward, I am wondering how much optimizing the game for base consoles is going to affect getting the next-gen console version ready. Maybe patches are less time-intensive, but it seems like they've really boxed themselves in for the next several months in terms of getting a version that is viable for base consoles while also fixing bugs and crashes on next-gen consoles, and this doesn't get into the AI/systems stuff, let alone DLC or multiplayer. The more you spin it out, the more you have to wonder how the situation they created of their own doing could be worse than whatever the consequences of yet another delay. But to return to the counterfactual above, the concrete delay game would backfire here too – pushing the 2-3 months it seems like are the minimum necessary for adequate performance would seem like a pretty big shift after the more recent, shorter push of release dates.
In any case, on my end, all that said and I decided to at least send an email to them about a refund. I am expecting them to give me some PR BS about contacting Amazon, but I'll report back.