CXLVII - Is this the 'Final Countdown' in Arizona?

[1CasualFan]

Oh shit! Two weeks... FOR REAL!

Its almost as if the entire rest of the Earth keeps spinning - but the MegaThread just stays right here, in a never ending loop... And I like that - its not a complaint. There are few things in life as reliable as this saga

What a joy it has been to be associated with this community since ~2009; when the Moyes BK thrust a bunch of insider NHL records into the docket for all to see. Regardless of wherever the Yotes May Roam, its one of the best sports business sagas in history.

I have just returned from our annual visit to Phoenix - we saw the LV @ AZ game at Mullett - its such a unique atmosphere. Absolutely loved it ... (Hey, not that the scheduling folks care what I think, but it is a crime to put the Yotes on the road during Phoenix Open / Super Bowl week. "@ Nashville" doesnt help anyone)

Anyway, I watched the Brodie Brazil video about the "new Arena plan" - it seemed to include all the pixie dust and magical fairy energy that all new Coyotes arena plans have at first... but ultimately, it was as dry as the desert sand the project is planned on.

But so is the grim reaper... death is always knocking at the Coyotes door - but the sickle never seems to quite connect, now does it? The hourglass turns but the sand never runs out; its awesome - and for as long as the zombie franchise is out there skating - I say we're all blessed to watch it.

Happy 2024, MegaThread - Best to you all.

 

[Boris Zubov]

Situation was toxic on both sides.

After the city terminated the lease in 2015 there was really no return from that, short of someone buying the Coyotes and Westgate together.

Of course....but his point is the team should've found a permanent situation by now.

 

[sh724]

Arizona Coyotes Revisit Arena Woes With Scripps TV Deal in Hand

"As far as the arena is concerned, after the 2021-22 season, the Coyotes were ejected from playing in what is now called Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale, Ariz., over a lease dispute. Last season, the Coyotes lost in excess of $10 million playing in Mullett Arena on the campus of Arizona State, even though seats were priced high—on average, $160 a ticket. Bettman called playing in the college arena at best a short-term solution, and they have one more season beyond this one to go on their lease."

Source: www.sportico.com/leagues/hockey/2023/arizona-coyotes-scripps-tv-deal-arena-future-1234741486/

There is a significant difference between economic profit and accounting profit. A statements saying they lost $10MM+ is meaningless without knowing where that number is actually coming from. In the grand scheme of things $10MM isnt really that much money. They probably claim more than that in depreciation every year.

Also they paid however many millions to ASU for the annex and prepaid the lease, so the actual operations of the team could have been cash flow positive while the operation as a whole was a loss. The Yotes probably could get away with accounting for the annex $ as a charitable donation. .

Point being a one sentence sound bite is entirely meaningless. No one is ever going to truly know where the Yotes are financially as none of it will ever be made public. Everyone has an agenda, unless you are looking at the actual financial statements nothing is credible.

P.S. I analyze business financials for one of the largest financial institutions in the country. I have businesses in my portfolio that have individual notes that are 9 figures.

 

[Boris Zubov]

There is a significant difference between economic profit and accounting profit. A statements saying they lost $10MM+ is meaningless without knowing where that number is actually coming from. In the grand scheme of things $10MM isnt really that much money. They probably claim more than that in depreciation every year, which isnt an actual $ expense even though it is accounted for as one.

This is a short sighted view on things when they've been losing money every year since they moved to the Desert. One report had them losing $30M in 2014 or 2015.

The only way this has been sustainable is the league was subsidizing their losses for a few years & the debt has been transferred from ownership to ownership.

 

[sh724]

This is a short sighted view on things when they've been losing money every year since they moved to the Desert. One report had them losing $30M in 2014 or 2015.

The only way this has been sustainable is the league was subsidizing their losses for a few years & the debt has been transferred from ownership to ownership.

You missed the much larger point...There is no way of knowing what is true and not true unless you look at the actual financial statements which none of us are privy to. Hypothetically a business could lose $30MM+ on paper and still have positive cash flow.

 

[Boris Zubov]

You missed the much larger point...There is no way of knowing what is true and not true unless you look at the actual financial statements which none of us are privy to. Hypothetically a business could lose $30MM+ on paper and still have positive cash flow.

Not disagreeing, but in your professional opinion, do you think this is true in the case of the Coyotes? LOL

 

[sh724]

Not disagreeing, but in your professional opinion, do you think this is true in the case of the Coyotes? LOL

My opinion is its pointless to draw any conclusions based on soundbites from reporters or interested parties who have an agenda one way or the other. I have seen financial statements for millionaires who were claiming earned income credit on their tax return.

 

[aqib]

They had a renegotiated year to year lease until three years ago.

There were reasons for that and you know it

Yeah I've been here the whole time. After Glendale voided the lease they had 2 year term and went year-to-year after that. They said at that point they wouldn't remain in Glendale long-term. So they have had all this time to get a deal done. No one does this

 

[TheLegend]

Yeah I've been here the whole time. After Glendale voided the lease they had 2 year term and went year-to-year after that. They said at that point they wouldn't remain in Glendale long-term. So they have had all this time to get a deal done. No one does this

You also tend to be selective with things.

Like I said above…. This has been a unique situation that you can’t compare to anything else.

 

[TheLegend]

BTW……while I’m here, if someone wants to confirm this.

The Coyotes app for trust land will be on the March 14th agenda for the State Land Trust board.

Edit: The auction would take place in June.

 

[Headshot77]

The Tempe vote failed May 16 last year. The three months timetable for the land bid will be done around mid-May this year. So if May 16 was too late last year, not sure mid-May will give them enough time for a relocation this year, if the land bid fails.

But this season the NHL has had a whole calender to get the relocation in motion.

This is 100% educated conjecture on my part, but IMO once the Tempe vote failed the NHL started working behind the scenes to drum up interest. That's why you've seen potential cities and owners really come out of the woodwork recently. Tempe was the Hail Mary and everything were looking at now is basically window dressing. I think the NHL is not happy with the prospect of one of their franchises playing in Mulett for another 3-4 seasons. But if Tempe passed you'd probably have shovels in the ground as we speak, so the temporary arena situation would be a lot more palatable.

It's very eye opening how the NHL, and Bettman specifically, has talked about the Coyotes lately. Way less friendly than they ever have been. Way less confident in them.

 

[dj4aces]

But this season the NHL has had a whole calender to get the relocation in motion.

This is 100% educated conjecture on my part, but IMO once the Tempe vote failed the NHL started working ng behind the scenes to drum up interest. That's why you've seen potential cities and owners really come out of the woodwork recently. Tempe was the Hail Mary and everything were looking at now is basically window dressing. I think the NHL is not happy with the prospect of one of their franchises playing in Mulett for another 3-4 seasons. But if Tempe passed you'd probably have shovels in the ground as we speak, so the temporary arena situation would be a lot more palatable.

It's very eye opening how the NHL, and Bettman specifically, has talked about the Coyotes lately. Way less friendly than they ever have been. Way less confident in them.

On the first bolded part, I'm gonna pull on this string a little, and say that some of the recent additions to that list (namely Omaha and Cincinnati) are likely props by the league to see if they can drum up more seriously interested parties. It might be conjecture, and I might only be adding to it, but "where there's smoke," and all that.

On the second, the Coyotes currently have one year left on their deal, plus one optional year after. If the stars align and everything is handled both expeditiously and with a favorable outcome for both the league and the Coyotes, they could conceivably begin play in their shiny new barn in time for the 2026-2027 season. If this is a process that'll take another year to sort, I don't know that the league's remaining patience will still be there by the end of the season, especially when you consider how the players feel about it.

On the third, I 100% agree. The hope I had that the Coyotes would stay in Arizona is fading, and that's a real disappointment. Like I said earlier, that clip from the press conference at the All-Star Game tells a much different story than if one had only read the words.

 

[PCSPounder]

Question for comparative purposes: while I’m guessing someone guessed a number, is $100M close for those 100 acres?

Then timeline: the Portland Beavers were still holding out hope for a Beaverton ballpark as late as early spring 2010, but by June 10, a couple players (behind me on a flight back from Reno) told a lady that they were gone after the season. The sale and relocation wasn’t officially announced until October, but there were 20,000 people in the stadium on Labor Day 2010 knowing it was the last game in Portland without the actual announcement. For all we know…

 

[TheLegend]

Of course....but his point is the team should've found a permanent situation by now.

He also said he’s familiar with everything. So he should know there were two other attempts to find solution before TED and they didn’t got through for a multitude or reasons.

 

[bleedblue94]

BTW……while I’m here, if someone wants to confirm this.

The Coyotes app for trust land will be on the March 14th agenda for the State Land Trust board.

Edit: The auction would take place in June.

Unreal, so the NHL will be in a box here bc if the league pulls the plug and relocates prior to the auction then there will be a massive lawsuit based on not giving the ownership the opportunity to finalize THIS deal, if they wait until June and the coyotes don't win the auction then the league doesn't have time to move prior to next season. The timing of activities the last couple months probably isn't a mistake (when certain things were initiated) bc it plops this auction right into a time that puts the league in an almost impossible situation and probably ensures the coyotes are staying through next season regardless.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

Question for comparative purposes: while I’m guessing someone guessed a number, is $100M close for those 100 acres?

Then timeline: the Portland Beavers were still holding out hope for a Beaverton ballpark as late as early spring 2010, but by June 10, a couple players (behind me on a flight back from Reno) told a lady that they were gone after the season. The sale and relocation wasn’t officially announced until October, but there were 20,000 people in the stadium on Labor Day 2010 knowing it was the last game in Portland without the actual announcement. For all we know…

Someone looked at these kinds of land auctions and noted most of them are at least 1 million per acre.

 

[Mightygoose]

Unreal, so the NHL will be in a box here bc if the league pulls the plug and relocates prior to the auction then there will be a massive lawsuit based on not giving the ownership the opportunity to finalize THIS deal, if they wait until June and the coyotes don't win the auction then the league doesn't have time to move prior to next season. The timing of activities the last couple months probably isn't a mistake (when certain things were initiated) bc it plops this auction right into a time that puts the league in an almost impossible situation and probably ensures the coyotes are staying through next season regardless.

Yeah this is bad timing for the league.

Brings it back to the tweets Richard Rodier sent on the weekend suggesting Ryan Smith group asking the league to start an expansion process allowing them to start due diligence on them to show there's no interference.

 

[GrumpyKoala]

My opinion is its pointless to draw any conclusions based on soundbites from reporters or interested parties who have an agenda one way or the other. I have seen financial statements for millionaires who were claiming earned income credit on their tax return.

So either the are loosing millions or they are extremely good at tax evasion?

Educate me on a third possibility?

 

[decma]

So either the are loosing millions or they are extremely good at tax evasion?

Educate me on a third possibility?

Eligibility for the earned income tax credit is based on income (earned income and investment income), not assets. So someone could have $1 million+ in growth stocks, for example, but little to no income, and still be eligible for the EITC.

 

[awfulwaffle]

Unreal, so the NHL will be in a box here bc if the league pulls the plug and relocates prior to the auction then there will be a massive lawsuit based on not giving the ownership the opportunity to finalize THIS deal, if they wait until June and the coyotes don't win the auction then the league doesn't have time to move prior to next season. The timing of activities the last couple months probably isn't a mistake (when certain things were initiated) bc it plops this auction right into a time that puts the league in an almost impossible situation and probably ensures the coyotes are staying through next season regardless.

The NHL could have moved the team LONG ago. What's one more season on a lease that they have already signed?

 

[Yukon Joe]

Unreal, so the NHL will be in a box here bc if the league pulls the plug and relocates prior to the auction then there will be a massive lawsuit based on not giving the ownership the opportunity to finalize THIS deal, if they wait until June and the coyotes don't win the auction then the league doesn't have time to move prior to next season. The timing of activities the last couple months probably isn't a mistake (when certain things were initiated) bc it plops this auction right into a time that puts the league in an almost impossible situation and probably ensures the coyotes are staying through next season regardless.

So, last relocation was announced May 31, which is close enough to June. So I suppose if the auction was really early in June - but then the relocation has to by then be fully negotiated and signed and ready to go.

So yeah - a June auction probably means no relocation this summer - unless the whole auction process is a sham.

 

[TheLegend]

Someone looked at these kinds of land auctions and noted most of them are at least 1 million per acre.

Some aren’t.

There’s one close to the parcel Meruelo applied for that went well under $1M per acre in 2022 (or 2021, I can’t recall exactly)

The one noted by the article Llama posted a while back was well above it, but that was due to a bidding war that broke out between two medical companies (Banner Health and Honor Health) that involved 80 individual bids.**

OTOH….. Ted was going to run over $1M per acre ($53 million for 46 acres IIRC)


Edit: Dug up the list of previous auctions. A 115 acre parcel at the NE corner of Tatum Blvd and Loop 101 went for $29.4 million, Sold to Vestar on 12/21/22. Six days later a 35 acre parcel just to the south (Tatum and Mayo Drive) went for just over the same amount.

This is approximately 2-3 miles west of the parcel Meruelo is seeking.


(Edit: **corrected some details.)

 

[KevFu]

Michigan is a big state too but the state kicked in money for the Wings arena. Minnesota is a big state and the state kicks in for sports venues in Minneapolis. New York is a big state and they kicked in money for the Bills Stadium even though most of the people live at the other end of the state.

Stop acting like AZ is so special. You're not the only place with complicated government dynamics, sprawl, traffic, NIMBY-people, alternative entertainment options, etc.

You are the only market that's gotten this many chances.

I'm a New Yorker.

Arizona isn't "so special." The point is that everywhere has circumstances.

For example, a large chunk of the Bills' Stadium money came from money seized from Western New York casinos. IIRC, they were supposed to turn over X percent as part of their license, but under reported or underpaid or something. The money seized was like a one-time windfall... so boom, new stadium with no new taxes. That's clearly not the same as other financing models for taxpayer funded stadiums.

 

[aqib]

You also tend to be selective with things.

Like I said above…. This has been a unique situation that you can’t compare to anything else.

Yeah AZ is so unique.
You can't go to games because traffic.
Your TV ratings sucks for reasons no one can explain but the interest is actually there.
You can't get an arena deal done because your government structure is complicated.
The team couldn't pay their property tax bills because they moved to a different office and the bill didn't get forwarded,
You can't get a decent owner because no one understands how awesome an opportunity it is to own a hockey team in Arizona.

 

[KevFu]

Yeah AZ is so unique.
You can't go to games because traffic.
Your TV ratings sucks for reasons no one can explain but the interest is actually there.
You can't get an arena deal done because your government structure is complicated.
The team couldn't pay their property tax bills because they moved to a different office and the bill didn't get forwarded,
You can't get a decent owner because no one understands how awesome an opportunity it is to own a hockey team in Arizona.

We could do this for half the league, we just don't because there aren't people making posts about why everyone else should move.

The Islanders needed a new arena for 30 years.
They couldn't get one built (because of complicated government, and TRAFFIC was a huge part of the NIMBY movement).
The Islanders and their arena/lease holder fought all the time. Even trying to have the building condemned to get out of their lease.
The Islanders also almost had MSG Network cite breach of contract to get out of a TV contract clause that could have been earth shattering in its ramifications, and that was only avoided because the fraud owner wanted cash to keep his web of lies going.
Oh, by the way, the team was owned by a complete fraud who got sent to jail, twice.
They played in an NBA arena not built for hockey for like 5 years.
Oh, got kicked out of that and went back to the Coliseum.

But we didn't have threads every day on moving the team, because everyone just accepted that the TV contract the fraud signed made sure no one would ever want to move the team.