CXLVII - Is this the 'Final Countdown' in Arizona?

[JimAnchower]

Maybe. Thought after the Tempe plan failed and when it did, it was realistically too late to move the franchise.

The Tempe vote failed May 16 last year. The three months timetable for the land bid will be done around mid-May this year. So if May 16 was too late last year, not sure mid-May will give them enough time for a relocation this year, if the land bid fails.

 

[Mightygoose]

The Tempe vote failed May 16 last year. The three months timetable for the land bid will be done around mid-May this year. So if May 16 was too late last year, not sure mid-May will give them enough time for a relocation this year, if the land bid fails.

That's true...but that assumes the league is OK with the 3 month timeline here.

But there's another assumption to consider too.

 

[Boris Zubov]

The Tempe vote failed May 16 last year. The three months timetable for the land bid will be done around mid-May this year. So if May 16 was too late last year, not sure mid-May will give them enough time for a relocation this year, if the land bid fails.

It would be reasonable to assume that the league is already planning for the contingency & drafting 2 schedules based on the team in SLC or another location next season. They would never admit that publicly, but they would be idiotic at this point not to have options in place. Winnipeg was announced on May 31st. I'm sure the league is being proactive this time even if the Yotes wind up staying put.

 

[Yukon Joe]

The Tempe vote failed May 16 last year. The three months timetable for the land bid will be done around mid-May this year. So if May 16 was too late last year, not sure mid-May will give them enough time for a relocation this year, if the land bid fails.

So the Atlanta to Winnipeg relocation was announced May 31.

But of course negotiations had been going on behind the scene for much longer than that. I mean heck TSN had a "Jets-Meter" graphic assessing the odds of the Jets coming back for at least a couple of months, if not longer.

So there are three possibilities of what is going on right now.

1. Coyotes and the league are 100% dedicated to this state land purchase, again with no plan B.

2. Coyotes are moving to SLC and they're just playing out the string in Phoenix.

3. They're pursuing both options.

 

[dj4aces]

3. They're pursuing both options.

At this point, the league kinda has to plan for both the relocation and the remain options. I'm sure the league has a Plan B, C, D, etc in an effort to eliminate as many possible wrenches being thrown into the works as possible. As a fan of seeing hockey grow, it's frustrating that the Coyotes have never in their history had a Plan B.

 

[GKJ]

I think this is true. I had to double check - the vote way May 16, 2023. I think it was clear the Coyotes and the League assumed the vote would succeed and didn't have a Plan B.

And I've said this before - if a relocation is coming, it will only be announced at the end of the season because otherwise you'd just kill ticket sales on a lame duck franchise.

I don’t think ticket sales matter here. The building is small and the people going to games, or go often, you’re not fooling. If there is a plan in motion, it will be figured out.

 

[Yukon Joe]

At this point, the league kinda has to plan for both the relocation and the remain options. I'm sure the league has a Plan B, C, D, etc in an effort to eliminate as many possible wrenches being thrown into the works as possible. As a fan of seeing hockey grow, it's frustrating that the Coyotes have never in their history had a Plan B.

The problem with the Coyotes is they've barely even had a Plan A most of the time - just running from crises to crises.

The Tempe TED plan was the most concrete plan the Coyotes had had in years - and then it crashed and burned.

 

[Llama19]

That's true...but that assumes the league is OK with the 3 month timeline here.

But there's another assumption to consider too.

What assumption is that...

 

[Yukon Joe]

I don’t think ticket sales matter here. The building is small and the people going to games, or go often, you’re not fooling. If there is a plan in motion, it will be figured out.

I'm just going by past history.

1. Winnipeg Jets 1995-1996 season. It was announced in the summer of 1995 that the team would be relocating, so the entire season was a lame duck. Attendance was TERRIBLE.

2. Atlanta Thrashers 2010-2011. Yes, if you knew where to look the writing was on the wall, but the team didn't announce the relocation until after the season was over - and yes it still caught many fans by surprise.

 

[KevFu]

And I've said this before - if a relocation is coming, it will only be announced at the end of the season because otherwise you'd just kill ticket sales on a lame duck franchise.

Meh, there's 4,600 seats, minus season tickets and opposing team fan single-game tickets already sold. Announce after the last home game of the year against Vegas and you're fine.

 

[dj4aces]

The problem with the Coyotes is they've barely even had a Plan A most of the time - just running from crises to crises.

The Tempe TED plan was the most concrete plan the Coyotes had had in years - and then it crashed and burned.

...and when that vote failed, the Coyotes reverted back to stumbling around with no solid Plan A, which I think is why you can almost hear the impatience in Bettman's voice when speaking about the Coyotes, regardless of what he's actually saying. Like, holy hell, that very lengthy pause when speaking about having confidence in Meruelo during the All-Star Game press conference speaks volumes.

I do really, truly, genuinely hope that land auction gambit pays off. The Coyotes need a series of solid wins.

 

[ponder719]

I think this is true. I had to double check - the vote way May 16, 2023. I think it was clear the Coyotes and the League assumed the vote would succeed and didn't have a Plan B.

And I've said this before - if a relocation is coming, it will only be announced at the end of the season because otherwise you'd just kill ticket sales on a lame duck franchise.

The only thing I can think of that might (probably wouldn't, but might) stand the tiniest chance of avoiding utterly cratering ticket sales while relocating the team is an abeyance plan. If the announcement isn't that the Coyotes are being relocated, but that SLC is receiving an expansion team, the Coyotes are entering a period of dormancy, the current roster is moving to SLC in lieu of an expansion draft, and upon the completion of a new arena in Arizona, the Coyotes will participate in a re-entry draft, that might be enough of a polite fiction to keep fans from utterly abandoning the team over the last couple months.

Do I believe this is going to happen? No. Do I believe it would actually prevent attendance from cratering if it does? Almost certainly not, no, but at least if they do try this, they can say that technically, the Coyotes are still an active, ongoing franchise, and please won't you come see them before they go on break for a while?

 

[Mightygoose]

What assumption is that...

That a certain aforementioned meeting lacked certain or all details as reported

 

[TheLegend]

What assumption is that...

The NHL didn't have a contingency plan at the time.

 

[TheLegend]

...and when that vote failed, the Coyotes reverted back to stumbling around with no solid Plan A, which I think is why you can almost hear the impatience in Bettman's voice when speaking about the Coyotes, regardless of what he's actually saying. Like, holy hell, that very lengthy pause when speaking about having confidence in Meruelo during the All-Star Game press conference speaks volumes.

I do really, truly, genuinely hope that land auction gambit pays off. The Coyotes need a series of solid wins.

That depends on your POV.

The vote failed in May. They applied for the parcel of state trust land the following month. They were also were in previous discussions with the Salt River Pima Community (Craig Morgan had reported the night of the vote a rep from them had reached out to him asking if he thought they would want to re-engage).

So it can be safe to presume they alternatives already in mind but didn't push on them because they were too focussed on TED.

 

[KevFu]

I'm just going by past history.

1. Winnipeg Jets 1995-1996 season. It was announced in the summer of 1995 that the team would be relocating, so the entire season was a lame duck. Attendance was TERRIBLE.

Was it 4,600 fans terrible? I mean, c'mon... isn't the whole reason the Coyotes would move is because their arena situation is "unacceptable" because there's only 4600 tickets to sell and that's not enough to "viable" ?

I agree with you on the principle of "maximize both the revenue in PHX and the time for the new city to be ready for the fall."

I just think people are putting way too much stock into the lame duck attendance thing, in a totally illogical manner, when the lack of capacity in Mullet is the #1 reason everyone's hell-bent on moving the team; and personal opinion that there's no hockey fans in the desert is #2.

If the NHL has made up their minds and is sitting on the information that this team is bound for Salt Lake City, you're not waiting until May. You're announcing it April 6th.

 

[aqib]

County has been fighting with the DBacks for years over maintenance issues, until they finally just gave them the keys and told then they could do what they wanted with it. And there's still no guarantee they'll stay. (they looked to go to Las Vegas before the A's did)

Sure but they still built the stadium in the first place. That's my point. The state and county are absent on this.

 

[dj4aces]

That depends on your POV.

The vote failed in May. They applied for the parcel of state trust land the following month. They were also were in previous discussions with the Salt River Pima Community (Craig Morgan had reported the night of the vote a rep from them had reached out to him asking if he thought they would want to re-engage).

So it can be safe to presume they alternatives already in mind but didn't push on them because they were too focussed on TED.

For sure. But, as you said, they waited a month to file that application. It gives the outward impression, at the very least, that there was no Plan B. They put all their chips on Tempe, convinced it would succeed, and only turned to the Arizona Land Trust out of desperation.

Would it have been possible to inquire about both the full parcel, as well as the 100 acre option? If so, all this nonsense we're seeing right now could've been avoided, but I know nothing about the land trust or the procedures... but it would've made sense to inquire, if it's allowed.

 

[KevFu]

That depends on your POV.

The vote failed in May. They applied for the parcel of state trust land the following month. They were also were in previous discussions with the Salt River Pima Community (Craig Morgan had reported the night of the vote a rep from them had reached out to him asking if he thought they would want to re-engage).

So it can be safe to presume they alternatives already in mind but didn't push on them because they were too focussed on TED.

Also, if you're working on other projects leading up to the TED vote, you're sending a message that you don't have confidence in the Tempe plan/vote, and undercutting your own chances.

The premise of the vote is that all the fans need to rally and vote/campaign to keep the team or lose them. You don't want your own fans thinking "Well, if it's not here, it's Pima, and that's okay."

 

[TheLegend]

For sure. But, as you said, they waited a month to file that application. It gives the outward impression, at the very least, that there was no Plan B. They put all their chips on Tempe, convinced it would succeed, and only turned to the Arizona Land Trust out of desperation.

Would it have been possible to inquire about both the full parcel, as well as the 100 acre option? If so, all this nonsense we're seeing right now could've been avoided, but I know nothing about the land trust or the procedures... but it would've made sense to inquire, if it's allowed.

I’m not sure what the full process is for applying to the state land trust, but I can presume you can’t just walk into their offices and fill out a form. There has to be some preliminary work done prior to that.

The consensus here locally seemed to be they had nothing at all going, but strictly from my POV it seems they had some idea of what they wanted to do.

 

[dj4aces]

I’m not sure what the full process is for applying to the state land trust, but I can presume you can’t just walk into their offices and fill out a form. There has to be some preliminary work done prior to that.

The consensus here locally seemed to be they had nothing at all going, but strictly from my POV it seems they had some idea of what they wanted to do.

I get it... and yeah, applying for something like that is definitely going to be unlike walking into a store and asking for a job application. But the outward impression is that the possibility of the vote failing -- however remote they thought it might be -- should've led them to at least prepare for the possibility it could happen. But that also ventures into the 20/20 hindsight territory.

 

[MeHateHe]

Meh, there's 4,600 seats, minus season tickets and opposing team fan single-game tickets already sold. Announce after the last home game of the year against Vegas and you're fine.

I think the dampening effect on ticket sales at Mullet would have to be weighed against the need for a possible SLC group to sell season tickets and build up enthusiasm for the team there. The fact that the Mullet is so small makes that consideration even smaller, so I'd agree it isn't terrible for the Arizona team to be left as a lame duck franchise, if this thing were announced before the season ended.

The only possible reason why it would be delayed is it would be super embarrassing if the Coyotes suddenly went on a tear, made the playoffs and then went on a deep playoff run. If they were to do that, the only narrative during the playoffs would be that this team that won't exist in four months was doing damage during the playoffs. It might make for interesting headlines but there are 15 other playoff teams that would lose out on profile, including, likely, the one that wins the Stanley Cup.

Announcing unsettling news is tricky business. You want to avoid it disrupting the key stories of your organization. In the case of the NHL, the next big stories are the outdoor games and then the trade deadline. Then there's six weeks before playoffs start, when you want the narratives focused on the games themselves. Arizona's last home game is April 17, which would be too late.

I'd say if there was a relocation announcement coming, and I wanted the ideal time to make it, I'd target around the 1st of April. The club will be on the road for a few games so there will be time for the immediate anger to subside (less likelihood of fans showing up and throwing stuff on the ice, for example), and that gives the SLC group a full six months before opening day to get all their ducks in a row, while using the current playoff season to build up the hype and sell season tickets.

Ultimately there's no good timing for this, but you work with what you got. And to fully disclaim, I am not advocating the team move, but just gaming this out a little bit.

 

[Ernie]

What's very clear is that it's put up or shut up time for Meruelo. The statements from Smith and the league, the leaks to journalists, and Bettman's very tepid backing of Meruelo all point in the same direction.

This deal better come together fast.

 

[Stumbledore]

I think the dampening effect on ticket sales at Mullet would have to be weighed against the need for a possible SLC group to sell season tickets and build up enthusiasm for the team there. The fact that the Mullet is so small makes that consideration even smaller, so I'd agree it isn't terrible for the Arizona team to be left as a lame duck franchise

I'm in agreement that a 'lame duck' franchise would not be a financial disaster.

Many of the seats are already sold to season-ticket holders. If you announce you're leaving, you're not required to refund any money. Fans will still get exactly what they paid for.

If you announce you're leaving, fans of visiting NHL teams will realize that this is the last chance to see THEIR team here in Arizona. The announcement may spur a lot of ticket sales.

If you announce you're leaving, fans of NHL hockey will realize that this is their last chance to see the NHL in Phoenix. Again, the announcement may generate a spurt of ticket sales.

If you announce you're leaving and not a single ticket is sold after that date, would the financial loss in such a small arena -- minus the STH sales -- be all that great?

 

[Yukon Joe]

The only possible reason why it would be delayed is it would be super embarrassing if the Coyotes suddenly went on a tear, made the playoffs and then went on a deep playoff run. If they were to do that, the only narrative during the playoffs would be that this team that won't exist in four months was doing damage during the playoffs. It might make for interesting headlines but there are 15 other playoff teams that would lose out on profile, including, likely, the one that wins the Stanley Cup.

So it's possible I'm over-learning the lessons of 1996, but I don't think so.

Anyways, in the 95-96 season the Jets were a lame duck - they were leaving at the end of the year. Which meant attendance was horrendous - until the end of the season. The last few games became "hey let's see the team one last time while we still can".

Then the playoffs came. The Jets made the playoffs and had a first-round meeting with the Red Wings. This was the mid-90s when Detroit was a powerhouse. But now the Jets were on a mission - win and keep playing, lose and go home - forever. So that playoff series was epic.

Anyways - the Jets took it to game 6, ultimately losing at home to send off the team. But the send-off was epic.

So anyways - while I think the league would want to do anything to avoid a lame-duck regular season, the playoffs might be different.