CXLVII - Is this the 'Final Countdown' in Arizona?

[KevFu]

Hypothetically, if a deal was done and they were picking the time to announce based on limiting damage in PHX and giving SLC as much time as possible before the start of next season...

It's April 6th. The last two Coyotes home games are the 5th and 17th.

The game on the 5th is against Vegas, who has virtually no out-of-market fan base because they're so new, and there's no need to be a snowbird to PHX from Las Vegas. That's the game where you need the most Coyotes fans to buy tickets.

That leaves one game (against Edmonton) for fans to boycott, or say goodbye to the team, or see McDavid in person for the last time.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

So the Atlanta to Winnipeg relocation was announced May 31.

But of course negotiations had been going on behind the scene for much longer than that. I mean heck TSN had a "Jets-Meter" graphic assessing the odds of the Jets coming back for at least a couple of months, if not longer.

So there are three possibilities of what is going on right now.

1. Coyotes and the league are 100% dedicated to this state land purchase, again with no plan B.

2. Coyotes are moving to SLC and they're just playing out the string in Phoenix.

3. They're pursuing both options.

The premier "Return of the Jets" forum at the time moved their own "jets meter" (which had been sitting at 99 per cent for a couple years at that point) to 100 per cent on New Year's Day.

It was quite an interesting time because the owner of the site wouldn't reveal why he made that choice - People were pretty focused on a potential Phoenix relocation, but we began to put the puzzle pieces together more seriously on Atlanta after that date.

That's all to say, It was not a secret for those in the know thought there was a good chance Winnipeg would be getting the Thrashers in 2011, at the very start of 2011.

It's a big reason why beginning of the year was my internal deadline for thinking if a relocation was coming or not was hearing a concrete rumour by early January - If there is to be a relocation, those rumblings came a couple weeks after I thought they would.

If I were the NHL, I'd prefer to announce one way or another as soon as the regular season ends. I think the league didn't like how relocation news out-weighed the SCF in 2011 (which had a Canadian team in it)

 

[Yukon Joe]

The premier "Return of the Jets" forum at the time moved their own "jets meter" (which had been sitting at 99 per cent for a couple years at that point) to 100 per cent on New Year's Day.

It was quite an interesting time because the owner of the site wouldn't reveal why he made that choice - People were pretty focused on a potential Phoenix relocation, but we began to put the puzzle pieces together more seriously on Atlanta after that date.

That's all to say, It was not a secret for those in the know thought there was a good chance Winnipeg would be getting the Thrashers in 2011, at the very start of 2011.

It's a big reason why beginning of the year was my internal deadline for thinking if a relocation was coming or not was hearing a concrete rumour by early January - If there is to be a relocation, those rumblings came a couple weeks after I thought they would.

If I were the NHL, I'd prefer to announce one way or another as soon as the regular season ends. I think the league didn't like how relocation news out-weighed the SCF in 2011 (which had a Canadian team in it)

Of course - jetsowner.com and Darren Ford.

I think Ford was very explicit about it being Phoenix or Atlanta at the time - at a time when not a lot of other people were focused on Atlanta.

And yes I agree - the ideal time owuld be the end of the regular season. The later it goes into the playoffs the more you risk overshadowing the SCF.

 

[MeHateHe]

Since we're gaming out relocation, does anyone want to game out the ideal timing for announcing a new arena deal? I'd argue that some of the considerations I outlined around timing for relocation - not overshadowing (or getting lost in) the trade deadline or the playoffs would come into play, but certainly you'd want that announcement to happen early enough so that the club could use the hype around the announcement to sell season tickets well before the regular season ends (especially given the growing likelihood that there is no playoff run for the club this year. So I'd say as early as possible after the trade deadline date for that announcement.

Edited to add that obviously this is all contingent on external timelines - the deal will come together when it comes together.

 

[Yukon Joe]

Since we're gaming out relocation, does anyone want to game out the ideal timing for announcing a new arena deal? I'd argue that some of the considerations I outlined around timing for relocation - not overshadowing (or getting lost in) the trade deadline or the playoffs would come into play, but certainly you'd want that announcement to happen early enough so that the club could use the hype around the announcement to sell season tickets well before the regular season ends (especially given the growing likelihood that there is no playoff run for the club this year. So I'd say as early as possible after the trade deadline date for that announcement.

I think for announcing an arena deal - the ideal timeline is ASAP. I can't imagine why you'd wait (once a deal is in place, that is).

The auction process complicates things though. If the team is looking at state-owned land that has to go to auction, you do not want to bring attention to it and risk other bidders driving up the price.

 

[Boris Zubov]

Hypothetically, if a deal was done and they were picking the time to announce based on limiting damage in PHX and giving SLC as much time as possible before the start of next season...

It's April 6th. The last two Coyotes home games are the 5th and 17th.

The game on the 5th is against Vegas, who has virtually no out-of-market fan base because they're so new, and there's no need to be a snowbird to PHX from Las Vegas. That's the game where you need the most Coyotes fans to buy tickets.

That leaves one game (against Edmonton) for fans to boycott, or say goodbye to the team, or see McDavid in person for the last time.

Not that it matters much here, but you're couldn't be more wrong about Vegas fans not traveling. It's about a 4 hour ride to Phoenix & the VGK fans always show up in large numbers to Phoenix & LA for that matter. When they were still in Glendale, it was like a Knights home game during the one game I drove down for.

 

[KevFu]

If I were the NHL, I'd prefer to announce one way or another as soon as the regular season ends. I think the league didn't like how relocation news out-weighed the SCF in 2011 (which had a Canadian team in it)

I think the relocation of Atlanta to Winnipeg simply is more huge news in Canada than the relocation news of Arizona to Salt Lake City would be.

There's no Canada/US, North/South, or realignment dynamic to the Utah Coyotes.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

Since we're gaming out relocation, does anyone want to game out the ideal timing for announcing a new arena deal? I'd argue that some of the considerations I outlined around timing for relocation - not overshadowing (or getting lost in) the trade deadline or the playoffs would come into play, but certainly you'd want that announcement to happen early enough so that the club could use the hype around the announcement to sell season tickets well before the regular season ends (especially given the growing likelihood that there is no playoff run for the club this year. So I'd say as early as possible after the trade deadline date for that announcement.

Edited to add that obviously this is all contingent on external timelines - the deal will come together when it comes together.

Remember, the land purchase is not the arena deal.

It's step one to an arena deal, but there are plenty of other steps that need to be taken after it is made.

 

[MeHateHe]

Remember, the land purchase is not the arena deal.

It's step one to an arena deal, but there are plenty of other steps that need to be taken after it is made.

Sure, but the club would be crazy not to grab onto any success they can have to claim/argue/demonstrate the team has a future in Arizona.

 

[Yukon Joe]

Remember, the land purchase is not the arena deal.

It's step one to an arena deal, but there are plenty of other steps that need to be taken after it is made.

But what are the steps then?

1. is purchasing the land. Obviously this is key. Beyond that though...

2. rezoning? COuld be contentious, but if it's virgin land hopefully not so much.

3. financing. So here's the rub - supposedly the team is going to self-finance the arena. That would obviously be ideal - but I have no f***ing clue how they do it.

 

[KevFu]

Not that it matters much here, but you're couldn't be more wrong about Vegas fans not traveling. It's about a 4 hour ride to Phoenix & the VGK fans always show up in large numbers to Phoenix & LA for that matter. When they were still in Glendale, it was like a Knights home game during the one game I drove down for.

I was basing it off of going to ticketmaster and seeing available tickets. Which it could be time based, but it was like 13 loosey tickets for Minnesota, and plenty for that Vegas game.

Just out of curiosity, when were those VGK games you were at? Could it have been traveling to see them because in the first couple years, the ticket demand was so high compared to Glendale or LA?

It's really cool that they have either out-of-marke or traveling fans like that this fast! (BTW, one thing that bugs me is that I watch games and announcers are like "All these fans made the trip!" as if none of us actually live in another team's market!)

 

[Yukon Joe]

It's really cool that they have either out-of-marke or traveling fans like that this fast! (BTW, one thing that bugs me is that I watch games and announcers are like "All these fans made the trip!" as if none of us actually live in another team's market!)

It sort of depends on the market, doesn't it?

When, as a Jets fan, I go to a game here in Edmonton there are tons of other Jets fans, because people move around within Canada. Same thing happens for a Toronto or Montreal game (more because of the power of the O6, but still).

But the Oilers had a recent game in Vegas. Tons of Oilers fans showed up. That's because Vegas is a tourist city and people legit travelled to watch the game (plus it was potentially a record-tieing game).

 

[TheLegend]

The premier "Return of the Jets" forum at the time moved their own "jets meter" (which had been sitting at 99 per cent for a couple years at that point) to 100 per cent on New Year's Day.

It was quite an interesting time because the owner of the site wouldn't reveal why he made that choice - People were pretty focused on a potential Phoenix relocation, but we began to put the puzzle pieces together more seriously on Atlanta after that date.

That's all to say, It was not a secret for those in the know thought there was a good chance Winnipeg would be getting the Thrashers in 2011, at the very start of 2011.

It's a big reason why beginning of the year was my internal deadline for thinking if a relocation was coming or not was hearing a concrete rumour by early January - If there is to be a relocation, those rumblings came a couple weeks after I thought they would.

If I were the NHL, I'd prefer to announce one way or another as soon as the regular season ends. I think the league didn't like how relocation news out-weighed the SCF in 2011 (which had a Canadian team in it)

Interesting bit from Craig Morgan a couple of days ago where he said Mark Chipman walked out of the NHL offices the day of Glendale’s council meeting believing 100% he had the Coyotes and by the time he got back to Winnipeg he found out Glendale voted to keep the Coyotes there.

A lot of us locally knew Glendale was going to vote the way they did earlier in the week based on what some key council members were saying but you can never tell.

Because in 2013 I wasn’t sure Ice Arizona lease was going to go through until near the end of the meeting when it became obvious a couple of council members agreed to change votes on the arena lease and one other item to be discussed at a different meeting.

 

[Boris Zubov]

I was basing it off of going to ticketmaster and seeing available tickets. Which it could be time based, but it was like 13 loosey tickets for Minnesota, and plenty for that Vegas game.

Just out of curiosity, when were those VGK games you were at? Could it have been traveling to see them because in the first couple years, the ticket demand was so high compared to Glendale or LA?

It's really cool that they have either out-of-marke or traveling fans like that this fast! (BTW, one thing that bugs me is that I watch games and announcers are like "All these fans made the trip!" as if none of us actually live in another team's market!)

I'm pretty sure it was the fall of 2018 when we drove down. When I still lived in Vegas, I was a STH for the first 3 seasons....there were many fans arranging party buses driving down to both Phoenix & LA.

Now that we live back east, my GF went to a VGK/Bruins game in late 2021 in Boston & I've been to the recent VGK/NYR game at MSG. Both places had plenty of VGK jerseys mixed in the crowd, although the MSG game recently you can also attribute to the obligatory front runners who became instant fans when they won the Cup.

 

[dj4aces]

Of course - jetsowner.com and Darren Ford.

I think Ford was very explicit about it being Phoenix or Atlanta at the time - at a time when not a lot of other people were focused on Atlanta.

And yes I agree - the ideal time owuld be the end of the regular season. The later it goes into the playoffs the more you risk overshadowing the SCF.

For good reason.

No one focused on Atlanta because, up until the *checks* 11 May 2011 Glendale city council vote, the Coyotes were the most likely team to relocate to Winnipeg. No one really paid any attention to Atlanta until that vote passed. From what I was hearing around here, the expectation was the vote would fail, and Atlanta Spirit would actually need to make a good faith effort to sell the team locally, rather than go through the motions while offering excessively high lease agreements to prospective buyers.

When that vote passed -- and I watched every second of that city council meeting -- I knew in my heart the team was gone, even though I wanted to believe it could still be saved.

 

[Yukon Joe]

I'm pretty sure it was the fall of 2018 when we drove down. When I still lived in Vegas, I was a STH for the first 3 seasons....there were many fans arranging party buses driving down to both Phoenix & LA.

Now that we live back east, my GF went to a VGK/Bruins game in late 2021 in Boston & I've been to the recent VGK/NYR game at MSG. Both places had plenty of VGK jerseys mixed in the crowd, although the MSG game recently you can also attribute to the obligatory front runners who became instant fans when they won the Cup.

I think Vegas has had a fair bit of "new" fans. They were the first expansion team in over 15 years. Their jerseys looked pretty cool. And of course they won right off the bat.

I know plenty of kids locally who will say that Vegas is their favourite team if you ask them. Actually my youngest son was one of them - until he decided he didn't like hockey at all.

 

[Boris Zubov]

It sort of depends on the market, doesn't it?

When, as a Jets fan, I go to a game here in Edmonton there are tons of other Jets fans, because people move around within Canada. Same thing happens for a Toronto or Montreal game (more because of the power of the O6, but still).

But the Oilers had a recent game in Vegas. Tons of Oilers fans showed up. That's because Vegas is a tourist city and people legit travelled to watch the game (plus it was potentially a record-tieing game).

Since the first season, both Edm & Calgary fans have flocked to Vegas in large numbers...especially for weekend games. Not sure if Flames fans are as rabid recently since the team isn't playing that well, but I'd imagine the Vancouver fans are picking up the slack. The Nucks fans were a notch below the other two when I still had season tix, but they still had a good following.

 

[aqib]

The 30-for-30 was exactly what I was thinking off! The visual was powerful.


I'd point out that the county vs city thing is also affected by all the power dynamic being different. Generally speaking, the county is above the cities/towns, and serves to unite the combined will of the people, who are spread out over a lot of small towns. It balances the power of the city vs town. But in Arizona, they haven't had the power dynamic of "the rest of us need Maricopa County to keep Phoenix in check!" because everyone else was a strong city as well. The county stuff is merely "what's convenient to cross our city borders."

Different places just have different dynamics. Going back to the state of Maryland saving the Orioles and getting the Ravens -- those stadiums are for EVERYONE. The entire state is only 9707 square miles. It's like "Sorry Cumberland and Salisbury, maybe you can drive the two hours for Saturday games?"

You don't have the same thing in like Texas or California, where funding a stadium for Sacramento or El Paso will make the rest of the state say "Uh, what? You're spending hundreds of millions on THEM? They're nine hours from us!"

I really think we're getting DEEP into the weeds on stuff like "why don't the people rally to force government action?!" When for thousands of pages it's been "if the team can't survive without a subsidy!" Like, NOW you're mad at the fans for not demanding a subsidy from one of 14 possible groups of politicians?

Michigan is a big state too but the state kicked in money for the Wings arena. Minnesota is a big state and the state kicks in for sports venues in Minneapolis. New York is a big state and they kicked in money for the Bills Stadium even though most of the people live at the other end of the state.

Stop acting like AZ is so special. You're not the only place with complicated government dynamics, sprawl, traffic, NIMBY-people, alternative entertainment options, etc.

You are the only market that's gotten this many chances.

 

[TheLegend]

Michigan is a big state too but the state kicked in money for the Wings arena. Minnesota is a big state and the state kicks in for sports venues in Minneapolis. New York is a big state and they kicked in money for the Bills Stadium even though most of the people live at the other end of the state.

Stop acting like AZ is so special. You're not the only place with complicated government dynamics, sprawl, traffic, NIMBY-people, alternative entertainment options, etc.

You are the only market that's gotten this many chances.

Nobody is acting like AZ is special. It’s a unique situation that has had all sorts of twists and turns to it.

So I’d say people should stop acting like it has to follow what they think it should.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

But what are the steps then?

1. is purchasing the land. Obviously this is key. Beyond that though...

2. rezoning? COuld be contentious, but if it's virgin land hopefully not so much.

3. financing. So here's the rub - supposedly the team is going to self-finance the arena. That would obviously be ideal - but I have no f***ing clue how they do it.

On 2 - I'm not sure exactly what the plans are - if there is going to be a substantial residential component, NIMBYs seem really strong in Arizona.

Also, the city will presumably need to commit resources/additional infrastructure to build up the area, which may present problems.

On 3 - This is the bigger question for me. Probably if they clear step one, they can clear the "step 2" hurdles as well (although much sillier things have happened to this franchise in its very dumb history)

Do they have the cash? Not assets, not personal value, but actual cash to build the arena after a big, 100,000,000 (at least) land purchase, for a franchise that is most likely up to its gills in debt already.

The Tempe plan showed there will be harsh opposition to any municipality looking to give any kind of public subsidies to this team.

I'm worried they'll spend so much time and energy to keep a project alive, they won't be able to afford the back-end.

 

[KevFu]

It sort of depends on the market, doesn't it?

When, as a Jets fan, I go to a game here in Edmonton there are tons of other Jets fans, because people move around within Canada. Same thing happens for a Toronto or Montreal game (more because of the power of the O6, but still).

But the Oilers had a recent game in Vegas. Tons of Oilers fans showed up. That's because Vegas is a tourist city and people legit travelled to watch the game (plus it was potentially a record-tieing game).

Yeah, but the phenomenon I was alluding to was one specific MLB announcer, who can't grasp the concept. He thinks anyone in road team gear flew out from that team's market.

People going to Vegas to see the road team makes sense because it's Vegas. (Any kind of warm-weather place in the middle of winter is gonna have some people visiting, sure).

If you see Edmonton fans at a road game in Buffalo, do you think they're on vacation going to see all the tourist attractions of Buffalo?

The number of people living in a market who go to see the road team is going to be much larger than the vacationing people. Hell, you can be a visiting person who goes to your favorite team's road game and live in neither market.

 

[aqib]

Nobody is acting like AZ is special. It’s a unique situation that has had all sorts of twists and turns to it.

So I’d say people should stop acting like it has to follow what they think it should.

It's been 8 and a half years since Glendale voted to void the lease. No one else takes this long to get a deal done.

 

[TheLegend]

It's been 8 and a half years since Glendale voted to void the lease. No one else takes this long to get a deal done.

They had a renegotiated year to year lease until three years ago.

There were reasons for that and you know it.

 

[Boris Zubov]

They had a renegotiated year to year lease until three years ago.

There were reasons for that and you know it.

You also must realize that his point is Bettman proclaimed far & wide that Glendale wasn't good enough for the team in 2015. If it was so bad, the arena situation should've been settled long ago.

 

[TheLegend]

You also must realize that his point is Bettman proclaimed far & wide that Glendale wasn't good enough for the team in 2015. If it was so bad, the arena situation should've been settled long ago.

Situation was toxic on both sides.

After the city terminated the lease in 2015 there was really no return from that, short of someone buying the Coyotes and Westgate together.