CXLVII - Is this the 'Final Countdown' in Arizona?

[KevFu]

I wonder how much money has been lost since 97?

between all the owners, the league, the AZ and Glendale tax payers.....

I'm betting it's well over a billion in fact? I bet its closer to 3 by the time Glendale finally sees the end of that white elephant arena.

lol that's not even close.

when Moyes went Bankrupt ,he filed documents that proved he'd lost 73 million over three years alone, and then next year he lost another 45million. thats already Almost Half of your prediction in just 4 years.
you go back to 1997.....
it's a billion easy.

WHO CARES? Why does everyone demonize revenue sharing? If the rich teams don't pay revenue sharing, they can't spend it on more players for their team because there's a salary cap. It literally goes in to a Scrooge McDuck Moneybin for Rogers/Bell, the Moulson's, the Dolans, Illitch Family, Comcast, etc, etc.

That money keeps some fan-favorite third-line guys in the NHL instead of the AHL or KHL, and makes hockey a more entertaining product. And spreads hockey around the continent. And protects smaller market cities or teams with hard-luck finances like Winnipeg, Edmonton, Calgary and Ottawa from possibly losing a team.

AND if the Coyotes aren't getting revenue sharing, SOMEONE ELSE IS because that is how the CBA is set up regardless of what teams are in what situation. So revenue sharing is totally irrelevant.

Throw in the fact that Moyes' claims of losing so much money on the Coyotes were because of his own shady or stupid business dealings...

A. He assumed control by taking on the debt from Larry Ellman. Ellman borrowed $80 million to complete the sale from Burke. So how much of the Coyotes "losses" was just interest payments on $80m worth of loans? That would have literally had nothing to do with the Coyotes team financials, but how the owners got the money or got control of the team in the first place.

(Case in point: Tom Hicks reorganized his debt via bankruptcy because he used the Dallas Stars as collateral to buy Liverpool FC. That had absolutely NOTHING to do with the Stars, but their financials suffered as Hicks used team revenues to pay off loans. The Stars profit margins on their own right bounced back instantly when Hicks sold the team).

B. The fact that the SCHEME to use the bankruptcy court to by-pass NHL rules on team sales and relocation required the team to be financially insolvent so he COULD file for bankruptcy. AKA, they ran up massive losses on purpose.

C. Moyes was siphoning money away from the team to his other companies: Leasing office space from his real estate company, and having a deal with his trucking company -- that they didn't actually need or use -- just to move tens of millions from the Coyotes to his other companies.

D. The attendance and revenue issues the Coyotes had were EXPONENTIALLY WORSE because of the decades of turmoil that Moyes CREATED by placing the team in bankruptcy. Attendance plummeted by 4000 fans PER GAME from the day he filed for bankruptcy for years.


The NHL has lost a ton of money on the Coyotes debacle. But the Coyotes aren't a financial debacle BECAUSE OF THE COYOTES as a business. They're a debacle because of the financial malpractice of Jerry Moyes and how much it has cost to clean up the mess.

 

[KevFu]

People need to except an expansion team, is needed to save the market.

If you believe Arizona is worth saving and its lack of success is circumstantial , you believe it's worth coming back with an expansion franchise.

Promise that the expansion fee back in the market will be the same as the sale price of the yotes.

In the past you'd call it putting a franchise in hiatus.

The league should just accpet they're going to 36 teams within the decade.

Atlanta-Houston-Arizona and KansasCity/SLC/Toronto2/San Diego/Portland

I am fully on board. Sell the team to Quebec City at the value of the Coyotes, no relocation fee (The Kroenkes return the Nordiques history to QC and build an NHL venue in San Diego).

Move Quebec to the Atlantic Division and have a funky schedule for a while (drastically reducing non-conference play.

Expand to San Diego (PAC), Houston (CENT), Atlanta (MET) and Phoenix (CENT) as arenas and ownership allow.

 

[Bucky_Hoyt]

I am fully on board. Sell the team to Quebec City at the value of the Coyotes, no relocation fee (The Kroenkes return the Nordiques history to QC and build an NHL venue in San Diego).

Move Quebec to the Atlantic Division and have a funky schedule for a while (drastically reducing non-conference play.

Expand to San Diego (PAC), Houston (CENT), Atlanta (MET) and Phoenix (CENT) as arenas and ownership allow.

I still think the NHL sticks with 32 teams and relies on relocation and franchise ownership turnovers to drive prices up. But I'm no psychic and I definitely see logic in this idea.

Sadly, I think if I am right about maxing at 32 and the NHL leaves metro Phoenix, it wouldn't come back for a very long time. Maybe the void gets filled by an MLS team as they're probably next to go to 32.

 

[Skidooboy]

WHO CARES? Why does everyone demonize revenue sharing? If the rich teams don't pay revenue sharing, they can't spend it on more players for their team because there's a salary cap. It literally goes in to a Scrooge McDuck Moneybin for Rogers/Bell, the Moulson's, the Dolans, Illitch Family, Comcast, etc, etc.

That money keeps some fan-favorite third-line guys in the NHL instead of the AHL or KHL, and makes hockey a more entertaining product. And spreads hockey around the continent. And protects smaller market cities or teams with hard-luck finances like Winnipeg, Edmonton, Calgary and Ottawa from possibly losing a team.

AND if the Coyotes aren't getting revenue sharing, SOMEONE ELSE IS because that is how the CBA is set up regardless of what teams are in what situation. So revenue sharing is totally irrelevant.

Throw in the fact that Moyes' claims of losing so much money on the Coyotes were because of his own shady or stupid business dealings...

A. He assumed control by taking on the debt from Larry Ellman. Ellman borrowed $80 million to complete the sale from Burke. So how much of the Coyotes "losses" was just interest payments on $80m worth of loans? That would have literally had nothing to do with the Coyotes team financials, but how the owners got the money or got control of the team in the first place.

(Case in point: Tom Hicks reorganized his debt via bankruptcy because he used the Dallas Stars as collateral to buy Liverpool FC. That had absolutely NOTHING to do with the Stars, but their financials suffered as Hicks used team revenues to pay off loans. The Stars profit margins on their own right bounced back instantly when Hicks sold the team).

B. The fact that the SCHEME to use the bankruptcy court to by-pass NHL rules on team sales and relocation required the team to be financially insolvent so he COULD file for bankruptcy. AKA, they ran up massive losses on purpose.

C. Moyes was siphoning money away from the team to his other companies: Leasing office space from his real estate company, and having a deal with his trucking company -- that they didn't actually need or use -- just to move tens of millions from the Coyotes to his other companies.

D. The attendance and revenue issues the Coyotes had were EXPONENTIALLY WORSE because of the decades of turmoil that Moyes CREATED by placing the team in bankruptcy. Attendance plummeted by 4000 fans PER GAME from the day he filed for bankruptcy for years.


The NHL has lost a ton of money on the Coyotes debacle. But the Coyotes aren't a financial debacle BECAUSE OF THE COYOTES as a business. They're a debacle because of the financial malpractice of Jerry Moyes and how much it has cost to clean up the mess.

lol they are a debacle because there are not enough fans to pay the bills. end of story.

it's funny watching you blame everyone but the market.

 

[KevFu]

lol they are a debacle because there are not enough fans to pay the bills. end of story.

it's funny watching you blame everyone but the market.

You're wrong, and we've proven it dozens and dozens of times over the last 20+ years on this site.

The Winnipeg Jets moved. That wasn't "The Market" it was the circumstances, because when the Jets 2.0 came back, they were middle of the pack financially.

The Quebec Nordiques moved. That wasn't "The Market" it was the circumstances because everyone wants them to come back.

The Minnesota North Stars moved. That wasn't "The Market" it was the circumstances, because when the Wild showed up, they've been middle of the pack financially for like 20 years.

Hell, the Oakland Seals moved, but the Sharks have been middle of the pack financially for 20 years.

The NY Rangers, New Jersey Devils and NY Islanders share a market and WERE ranked 1st, 15th and 29th in revenues. So it's NOT the MARKET causing that, it's the circumstance, because when UBS Arena opened, the Islanders moved to like 10-14 in revenue.

But hey, keep blaming the market and not circumstance.

 

[Salsero1]

You're wrong, and we've proven it dozens and dozens of times over the last 20+ years on this site.

The Winnipeg Jets moved. That wasn't "The Market" it was the circumstances, because when the Jets 2.0 came back, they were middle of the pack financially.

The Quebec Nordiques moved. That wasn't "The Market" it was the circumstances because everyone wants them to come back.

The Minnesota North Stars moved. That wasn't "The Market" it was the circumstances, because when the Wild showed up, they've been middle of the pack financially for like 20 years.

Hell, the Oakland Seals moved, but the Sharks have been middle of the pack financially for 20 years.

The NY Rangers, New Jersey Devils and NY Islanders share a market and WERE ranked 1st, 15th and 29th in revenues. So it's NOT the MARKET causing that, it's the circumstance, because when UBS Arena opened, the Islanders moved to like 10-14 in revenue.

But hey, keep blaming the market and not circumstance.

Atlanta moved because the people of the market "weren't good enough to keep it"
IF the Yotes move it'll be because they didn't "appreciate" the Ferrari that was being handed to them
If the Canes (my team) had moved, it would be because our tiny NC brains can't understand or enjoy the game

But it's never the fans' fault when a northern market struggles or leaves.

It's not even thinly veiled xenophobia, and it's so depressing that people who think the way @KevFu does don't seem to be very common around these parts.

 

[KevFu]

It's just logically stupid to see a dumpster fire and blame the alley it's in and not the guy who lit the freaking match.

 

[Shwan]

It's just logically stupid to see a dumpster fire and blame the alley it's in and not the guy who lit the freaking match.

After you've gone through the ~7th owner who either is unable or unwilling to put that fire out, you start looking for common denominators, like the alley.

 

[Stumbledore]

You're wrong, and we've proven it dozens and dozens of times over the last 20+ years on this site.

The Winnipeg Jets moved. That wasn't "The Market" it was the circumstances, because when the Jets 2.0 came back, they were middle of the pack financially.

The Quebec Nordiques moved. That wasn't "The Market" it was the circumstances because everyone wants them to come back.

The Minnesota North Stars moved. That wasn't "The Market" it was the circumstances, because when the Wild showed up, they've been middle of the pack financially for like 20 years.

Hell, the Oakland Seals moved, but the Sharks have been middle of the pack financially for 20 years.

The NY Rangers, New Jersey Devils and NY Islanders share a market and WERE ranked 1st, 15th and 29th in revenues. So it's NOT the MARKET causing that, it's the circumstance, because when UBS Arena opened, the Islanders moved to like 10-14 in revenue.

But hey, keep blaming the market and not circumstance.

If there is a market for the Coyotes, wouldn't it show in the TV ratings?

This past year, reruns of "I Love Lucy" drew a larger audience than Coyotes games.

 

[KevFu]

After you've gone through the ~7th owner who either is unable or unwilling to put that fire out, you start looking for common denominators, like the alley.

The common denominator was Glendale's role in the arena lease. After Moyes screwed them, they weren't going to play ball.

If the market sucked, the market would suck regardless of the circumstance. But you can take every year of Coyotes attendance figures, divide it into the nine eras of what was going on with ownership and every single season is going to fall into three categories far better than any correlation with team performance would:

You have:
15,148 - "No Headlines" Eras. The Arena situation isn't great (non hockey NBA Arena, Bad location in Glendale), but for TEN SEASONS this is what they averaged.

13,511- "Question Marks." Stable ownership, but a big question. This is the Lame Duck Downtown years (after the Glendale arena is announced), the Ice Arizona/Barroway/Muerelo eras in Glendale when rumors persist. (9 seasons, 2001-03, 2013-20).

11,121 - TOTAL CHAOS. Moyes Bankruptcy, Evicted and ASU headlines. Everyone's talking relocation. (7 seasons; 2009-13, 2021-present).

So you see 13,500 average attendance in the PHX metro area and think "Bad Market" but their attendance corresponds to their OFF ICE HEADLINES more than it does to their POINT TOTALS.

 

[KevFu]

Let's take the Year-by-Year Coyotes Attendance, color code it by my three headline statuses...

And also take the Coyotes season point totals (per 82 games to account for lockout/COVID seasons) and see how attendance translates:

HEY! LOOK AT THAT. NO ONE CARES IF THE TEAM HAS 107 POINTS, FANS WON'T GO NEAR A DUMPSTER FIRE!

And before the bankuptcy, 15,200 fans were going to see a terrible team!

The Dumpster fire of ownership and bankruptcy and relocation talk KEEPS THE FANS AWAY.

The FANS aren't causing the relocation/bankruptcy/dumpster fire!

 

[GKJ]

Still have to think the original sin here was not keeping the Coyotes and Suns bundled from the start... I actually think this is a cautionary tale about split ownership in various markets, especially as there is a proliferation of arenas (eg. the Sixers going it alone)

It’s why the league wants their owners to own buildings.

 

[Shwan]

The FANS aren't causing the relocation/bankruptcy/dumpster fire!

I believe the argument is that it's the *lack* of fans that's causing the relocation/bankruptcy/dumpsterfire.

Which that data certainly suggests. I would personally amend the previous sentence to "And before the bankuptcy recession, 15,200 fans were going to see a terrible team!"

Something to consider when we most likely enter another one by the end of this year.

 

[KevFu]

I believe the argument is that it's the *lack* of fans that's causing the relocation/bankruptcy/dumpsterfire.

Which that data certainly suggests. I would personally amend the previous sentence to "And before the bankuptcy recession, 15,200 fans were going to see a terrible team!"

Something to consider when we most likely enter another one by the end of this year.

NOW who's making excuses and moving the goalposts?

The recession began in 2007, and 2007, 2008 and 2009 are the worst attendance years of the "No Headlines" data. So you wanna say that cost the Coyotes 700 fans per game, cool.

But the Bankruptcy on May 5, 2009 caused the three worst attendance years for the Coyotes (before eviction/ASU) by 3500 to 4000 fans per night.

If you want me to sort this by the Dow Jones and see THAT correlation visually, I can do it.

 

[Shwan]

If you want me to sort this by the Dow Jones and see THAT correlation visually, I can do it.

I'm never one to avoid admitting I'm wrong if you have the time to do it and I'd be interested to see it.

I wouldn't say I'm moving goalposts though, my argument remains unchanged:

The window to capture the Phoenix market is shut for the Coyotes, be it from mismanagement from the organization and/or from an admittedly very long string of bad luck events.

 

[KevFu]

I know very little about how the economy is measured. So this is sorted by the year-to-year change. AKA Red Down, Black Up. Sorted by growth/loss.

 

[Shwan]

I know very little about how the economy is measured. So this is sorted by the year-to-year change. AKA Red Down, Black Up. Sorted by growth/loss.


View attachment 719312

Thank you for this! I'll definitely say the data does not support my viewpoint and you are correct that the bankruptcy most likely did more to drive away people than a loss of disposable income from the recession.

 

[KevFu]

I was curious, so I looked for a team that has no circus atmosphere and has been just quietly in their market, near the middle/bottom of revenues for generations:

Team Good: 18,463 (ARZ is 13,504)
Team Okay: 16,965. (ARZ is 14,467)
Team BAD: 15,912 (ARZ is 13,589)
> Absolute correlation for NORMAL TEAM; no correlation for Arizona.

Economy Great: 18,144 (ARZ is 14,320)
Economy Okay: 17,459 (ARZ is 13,977)
Economy BAD: 18,472 (ARZ is 13,847)
> There's really NO correlation for the NORMAL team, and a very, very slight correlation for Arizona (like 450 fans).


Again, here's my Headline rating for Arizona:
Normal: 15,251
Questionable: 13,805
Chaos: 11,512

What's the closest thing that my NORMAL TEAM has to chaos? WORK STOPPAGES and COVID. Here's the first two years after lockouts, and after COVID vs the 21 normal seasons:

ALL OTHERS: 18,457
CBA/COVID: 15,970
> I feel safe in saying that "Chaos is bad for business"

(For my normal team, I picked St. Louis)

 

[Lady Stanley]

I still think the NHL sticks with 32 teams and relies on relocation and franchise ownership turnovers to drive prices up. But I'm no psychic and I definitely see logic in this idea.

Sadly, I think if I am right about maxing at 32 and the NHL leaves metro Phoenix, it wouldn't come back for a very long time. Maybe the void gets filled by an MLS team as they're probably next to go to 32.

It's perfectly reasonable to assume each owner could collected 200 million each for 4 teams. If they are $1.6 billion bids. Sounds like a high price until you factor in inflation. The players don't get any of that, so that's more like $400 million in conventional revenue for each owner, with almost no cost to them sans an expansion draft.

I'd suspect we'd get two teams in 2028 and two more in 2032, something along those lines.

 

[BKIslandersFan]

It's perfectly reasonable to assume each owner could collected 200 million each for 4 teams. If they are $1.6 billion bids. Sounds like a high price until you factor in inflation. The players don't get any of that, so that's more like $400 million in conventional revenue for each owner, with almost no cost to them sans an expansion draft.

I'd suspect we'd get two teams in 2028 and two more in 2032, something along those lines.

I don't think NHL expands until another league expands beyond 32.

 

[Lady Stanley]

I am fully on board. Sell the team to Quebec City at the value of the Coyotes, no relocation fee (The Kroenkes return the Nordiques history to QC and build an NHL venue in San Diego).

Move Quebec to the Atlantic Division and have a funky schedule for a while (drastically reducing non-conference play.

Expand to San Diego (PAC), Houston (CENT), Atlanta (MET) and Phoenix (CENT) as arenas and ownership allow.

If my idea of a Canadian division( that would ensure canadian playoff hockey//bigger canadian national deal is a thing) gets ignored.

Just get rid of conferences and have the Nordiques playing in the central.

6 games against nashivlle-st louis-Chicago(18 games) and 4 games against Avs-Jets-Stars-Wild(16 games). 48 games would than be twice over/against the rest of the league.

Players would love it as it's significantly reduce travel.

Better for television scheduling(for the rest of the league).

You break up the habs-nords(maybe molson would like it that way), but you'd have an automatic overnight rivalry with the Avs.

In some ways it's be a tradegy if they weren't in the same division.

Not to mention having Bedard in QC 3 times a year would be great for ticket sales.

 

[Lady Stanley]

I don't think NHL expands until another league expands beyond 32.

The NHL in this scenario would be in 21 separate US metropolitans areas, it's only in 22 now.

If you put a 9th team in toronto, you'd have 24 US metros.

 

[bleedblue94]

No different than what you've been doing the entire time.



Do you NOT believe anything stated publicly?? So far I haven't seen evidence of the contrary.



Don't bring it up then.

I have not manipulated anything you've said, and your attempt to somehow spin that onto me is borderline childish. It is the stuff I expect on the mainboards, not in this forum and not from someone that generally posts w class and knowledge.

 

[Shwan]

Like Clockwork.

On the PHNX Podcast today, Craig Morgan said he expects the Coyotes to report a revenue increase of ~$2 mil from their first season at Mullett Arena vs their old home in Glendale, plus an estimated 80% of season tickets have been renewed. Offical #'s should come out soon.

"Everything's Fine!"

Except Xavier Gutierrez already went on record back in January saying the team is on track to be in the red $10M+

But even though seats are priced high—on average, $160 a ticket—the team is still losing vast amounts of money, in excess of $10 million this season. This is the first of at least three seasons that will be played in Mullett Arena as the team tries to fund a nearby $2.1 billion arena and entertainment complex dubbed the TED.

Team’s financial losses “are in line with what they had been in the past for the team,” Gutierrez said as the Coyotes lost, 4-1, to the Pittsburgh Penguins Sunday night. He did not define an exact figure.

In the multimillion-dollar range?

“Yes,” he responded. “And I tip my hat to [owner] Alex Meruelo for sustaining that.”

More than $10 million?

“Yes, it’s substantial,” Gutierrez said. “We’re meeting our ticketing projections. We knew we’d be making more than our previous location [Glendale’s Gila River Arena]. We’re limited on premium seating. The challenge has been some of the ancillary rights, the merchandising. We’re learning how to pivot as far as finding that additional revenue.”

Now I'm sure Xavier was okay putting this information out there back in January when he thought the Coyotes were going to be the proud owners of a landfill by now, but given the circumstances this shows how dire the team is in and why they need an arena plan yesterday. A lame duck season would be catastrophic.

 

[Headshot77]

Go look up him talking about the arena vote and how he was critical of the Coyotes starting late and not taking a proactive stance. Did it on social media AND the PHNX podcast.

But who cares?? It's certainly not going to matter to you.




Wait..... this is just an article pointing out possible locations.

Where's the "everything is okay" shtick you promised would be included????

I don't see Craig farting rainbows and unicorns in this piece. Just pointing out what the current options they are looking at and the pros and cons of each.

BTW.... this was the paragraph below the one you quoted...



Seems timelines would a big deal here. And sportsbooks don't have to be built on the actual site. That particular site sits right on the reservation border and there's nothing precluding building one on a lot across the street.

That would be brilliant and so wonderfully sketchy. I'm here for it.