CXLVII - Is this the 'Final Countdown' in Arizona?

[Ernie]

I will say, my speculation from the summer that this entire year was nothing but a lame duck from the beginning, with a token effort to find a new location and an eventual relocation to SLC for the start of the 2024/2025 season is basically playing out exactly as I'd expect it to.

The relocation rumblings just came a few weeks after I thought they would start in that scenario.

Yeah, the writing was on the wall after the vote failed. It took years for the Tempe deal to come together, the idea they could have another option lined up in the next 8 months was a long shot. That would be a tall order for even a competent ownership group.

 

[DustyDangler]

Because I'm into finding hilarity in the oddest places, I think it would just be funny for Utah to have hockey team with a desert theme at the same time they have a basketball team named for a music style that is not exactly tied to the city's culture. Maybe the Florida Marlins will move to Salt Lake City next? Or the Dallas Cowboys?

I get your point and kind of funny but Coyotes are common in Utah & Utah is in the SouthWest and there are deserts in Utah that look pretty similar to AZ so not really a big diff. If it was to happen, maybe you change the color scheme to be more SLC mountainous like but, if they were wise, they keep the team name and the best logo in the NHL.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

The funniest outcome would have been a return to Atlanta by this franchise, but unfortunately that isn't able to happen yet.

 

[DustyDangler]

C'mon Craig...

C'mon Craig? You mean c'mon Frank, please stop lying?

 

[KevFu]

Just out of curiosity, how many times in the past 20 years has Friedman implied the Coyotes were gonna move somewhere?

 

[Reaser]

Yeah, the TV industry uses the Nielsen's because that's what they got.

But the Buffalo thing illustrates my point

What's the more likely scenario, that the Sabres have 10x the fans the Devils and Islanders do? Or the combo of Comcast dropping MSG in New Jersey and Connecticut, and the Neilsen's counting the target demo in Buffalo 3x as much as the Devils/Islanders?

Even (some, more if not all to come) streaming services that naturally want(ed) to keep their data to themselves have fallen in line with Nielsen, too.

Lot of conjecture in your Buffalo point, that's also more antiquated (old Nielsen) than the newer/additional ways of measurement in more recent times -- including with streaming, out-of-home, additional measurement tools, etc.. It's not the write down what you watch diary era. Though, that said, even with changes we don't see teams shoot up/down the list local or national viewership as a sign that they were screwed by the system/structure in place any given time, so I wouldn't be using that as an excuse, in this case, for the Yotes.

Rating, share, HHs, average viewership, 18-34 demo, 18-49 demo, m/f, etc.. It's not one thing. Collectively they do the job showing what teams are popular locally/regionally (PIT, BUF, etc.), what teams are popular nationally (BOS, NYR / DET is doing good #s in their national broadcasts this season) and so on.

We have decades of data, that data has the Yotes at/near the bottom YoY, especially on HHs and viewership. It's not some conspiracy against them or a flawed metric that no one uses that's screwing them and only them. It's THE standard and shows a frankly common-sense conclusion here.

 

[DustyDangler]

Okay. Follow that path here. How exactly are the OTHER NHL owners losing money?

The CBA is such that the top 10 in revenue give revenue to the teams that finished below the average revenue. So when the Coyotes finish 32nd in revenue, they get money to bump them up.

Using Forbes numbers, which are flawed as they probably already include the revenue sharing;

If the Coyotes move and become the richest team in the league with $300m in revenue, the league average goes up, and the bottom 20 teams are further behind league average.

Coyotes DMFL in revenue, the top are $520m over the average, and bottom 19 are $513m below
Coyotes first in revenue, the top are $540m over the average, but the bottom 20 are $600m below.

The only teams who are "losing money" by the Coyotes situation are the Coyotes and the team that's 10th now and paying RS, who'd be 11th and no paying RS if Coyotes were Top 10.

Of course, the Coyotes are never going to be Top 10. The Panthers have never been Top 10, and that's probably the best comparison for those two markets. If the Coyotes made $48m million more in revenue, right around the Panthers, then the league average only goes up $2m, and the bottom 20 teams all fall behind by another $1m.


The CBA is such that every franchise actually becomes healthier if you contracted the richest teams, not the poorest. We want the Coyotes to make more money because growing revenues is basically good. But the only one "Losing money" on the situation are the Coyotes.

I just want to recognize how well thought out this is. It puts perspective on the irrationality of broader NHL fans having so much angst over Mullett as though they have somehow been injured by where the Coyotes play.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

AM put the lying, lazy, glad hander XG in charge of the arena situation. This group is a bunch of asshats, the only thing they've done w/o screwing it up is the hockey side of things, which they stayed out of.

They managed to negotiate a (IMO) pretty good deal with Tempe, only to fail MISERABLY at trying to sell the public on the deal.

Whether or not it should have passed is an interesting question, which should be ignored, because the margin of loss was embarrassing, and points to a complete failure from Coyotes ownership.

 

[Reaser]

The NHL is never going to officially announce anything until the season is over to not undercut on going business in Az. But it sure seems like they are laying the groundwork behind the scenes.

That's normally how I'd see it but I think with the Yotes situation there's not a lot of business to undercut. Not like 17k attendance is going to plummet to 5k if/when they announced a relocation. Or massive local/national viewership numbers are going to plummet. They're already low, about as low as you can be. If anything, officially announcing it before the end of the season might get a boost in merch sales and some "watch them before they leave."

Unique situation, but I'd say officially announcing a move much earlier than after the season would be on the table.

 

[LOFIN]

That's normally how I'd see it but I think with the Yotes situation there's not a lot of business to undercut. Not like 17k attendance is going to plummet to 5k if/when they announced a relocation. Or massive local/national viewership numbers are going to plummet. They're already low, about as low as you can be. If anything, officially announcing it before the end of the season might get a boost in merch sales and some "watch them before they leave."

Unique situation, but I'd say officially announcing a move much earlier than after the season would be on the table.

1. Announce a move to Utah
2. Players get very excited
3. Team starts to overperform
4. Goes on a run
5. Wins the cup
6. ???
7. Profit

 

[TheGreenTBer]

They managed to negotiate a (IMO) pretty good deal with Tempe, only to fail MISERABLY at trying to sell the public on the deal.

Whether or not it should have passed is an interesting question, which should be ignored, because the margin of loss was embarrassing, and points to a complete failure from Coyotes ownership.

If they do relocate that's the tragedy of the whole thing: TED could actually have benefitted all parties involved to some degree AND kept the hockey team in the Phoenix area. It would have made AM a lot of money as well, so how on Earth could they possibly have failed? How could they not have pulled out all the stops, all the people, all the EVERYTHING they needed to win at the political game? Failure should never have been an option.

 

[TLEH]

They didn't get "kicked out" because they didn't pay their bills. They got kicked out because Glendale wanted a long term commitment. The Coyotes didn't want a long term commitment. (That was sort of dumb) because they didn't have an immediate solution in place. They put all their eggs into the Tempe basket and failed.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

They didn't get "kicked out" because they didn't pay their bills. They got kicked out because Glendale wanted a long term commitment. The Coyotes didn't want a long term commitment. (That was sort of dumb) because they didn't have an immediate solution in place. They put all their eggs into the Tempe basket and failed.

Did they? Didn't they get outspent in that vote?

Seems like they just assumed TED would go through and that they didn't have to work to sell anyone on it, unless I'm mistaken.

 

[TLEH]

Did they? Didn't they get outspent in that vote?

Seems like they just assumed TED would go through and that they didn't have to work to sell anyone on it, unless I'm mistaken.

I personally would categorize not having a concrete backup plan and assuming something would work as putting their eggs into that basket.

 

[KevFu]

The NHL is never going to officially announce anything until the season is over to not undercut on going business in Az. But it sure seems like they are laying the groundwork behind the scenes.

See, this is the kind of thing that gets me...

The implication of all of this tweet storm today is that the NHLPA, owners and league are all fed up with an unsustainable situation of playing in a 4,600-seat college arena that cannot bring in enough revenue that they can play there indefinitely while looking for a new arena, right?

So how can the business situation be so dire they need to move the team, but can't announce a move or it will tank on-going business in Arizona?

There's 17 Coyotes home games left, with most the tickets sold already via season tickets (And FYI, the limited availability led to a 50% increase in season-ticket revenue for the Coyotes. Mullet proves Glendale was the problem). Wouldn't selling deposits on season-tickets for 41 games at the Delta Center be A LOT MORE business for the franchise/league than unsold Mullet tickets in a lame-duck situation after an announcement?

 

[GKJ]

They managed to negotiate a (IMO) pretty good deal with Tempe, only to fail MISERABLY at trying to sell the public on the deal.

Whether or not it should have passed is an interesting question, which should be ignored, because the margin of loss was embarrassing, and points to a complete failure from Coyotes ownership.

If they do relocate that's the tragedy of the whole thing: TED could actually have benefitted all parties involved to some degree AND kept the hockey team in the Phoenix area. It would have made AM a lot of money as well, so how on Earth could they possibly have failed? How could they not have pulled out all the stops, all the people, all the EVERYTHING they needed to win at the political game? Failure should never have been an option.

In the aftermath of that vote, it didn't seem that the Coyotes and whoever was supporting TED tried that hard. Weren't they outspent significantly on the campaign?

 

[Ernie]

They didn't get "kicked out" because they didn't pay their bills. They got kicked out because Glendale wanted a long term commitment. The Coyotes didn't want a long term commitment. (That was sort of dumb) because they didn't have an immediate solution in place. They put all their eggs into the Tempe basket and failed.

The comments surrounding that certainly made it appear that no love was lost from the city's side of things. There was no imminent need for the city to give them the boot.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

The funniest outcome would have been a return to Atlanta by this franchise, but unfortunately that isn't able to happen yet.

Why not?

 

[MNNumbers]

The comments surrounding that certainly made it appear that no love was lost from the city's side of things. There was no imminent need for the city to give them the boot.

I disagree Ernie. From the city's standpoint, the team was looking for another place to build another arena. A 3rd arena in the metro would further pinch the business at Desert Diamond, and so the city didn't want a 3rd arena happening.

For that cause, the city sought to obtain a long-term lease with the team. When that failed, there was no reason for the city to renew the lease. Renewing would only have made life easy for the team to continue seeking other options. It would be like a wife saying to her husband......"Hey, it's fine if you life here, even though you odn't love me any more and are looking for someone else."

To a large degree, a business decision to use whatever leverage they had for the sake of the future of their arena.

 

[TheLegend]

Every time you deny this, you reaffirm my point. Meruelo cannot build an arena without subsidies, which is why no other projects have materialized.

You're avoiding my point....

I'll save you the trouble and give you the link.....

Tempe Entertainment District | City of Tempe, AZ

A mixed-use project incorporating a professional sports franchise and entertainment district is planned for two parcels of city-owned land totaling 46 acres at the northeast corner of Priest Drive and Rio Salado Parkway.

www.tempe.gov

Now.... go in there and show us how anything in there follows the stuff you've been blathering on about the last few posts.

 

[MeHateHe]

I get your point and kind of funny but Coyotes are common in Utah & Utah is in the SouthWest and there are deserts in Utah that look pretty similar to AZ so not really a big diff. If it was to happen, maybe you change the color scheme to be more SLC mountainous like but, if they were wise, they keep the team name and the best logo in the NHL.

Stop bringing facts into this discussion. It hurts my feelings.

 

[Coyotedroppings]

If they do relocate that's the tragedy of the whole thing: TED could actually have benefitted all parties involved to some degree AND kept the hockey team in the Phoenix area. It would have made AM a lot of money as well, so how on Earth could they possibly have failed? How could they not have pulled out all the stops, all the people, all the EVERYTHING they needed to win at the political game? Failure should never have been an option.

They asked fans to go door to door campaigning..... smh.

 

[TheLegend]

"As arena deals go" huh? You're right in that the majority of subsidized arena deals are not beneficial to local citizens. Just ask the citizens of Glendale!

I've given you the link now..... you have no excuses anymore.

Go show us how it says what you say it does.

 

[DustyDangler]

Maybe Coyotes fans could buy tickets and merchandise, as well as sit and watch.

Perhaps the fans who already do that are great supporters and everything, but the absence of even greater fan support must have some role to play here?

Other than Toronto and Montreal, there are no NHL franchises that would not take a dip in support if they had the worst point percentage of all active franchises (like the Coyotes do). When the Coyotes were good, the support was there and growing. Then inept ownership and the kick in the sack Gretzky years stifled any momentum they were building.

Decades of ineptitude outside of the 2012 glitch led to no bandwagon fans, just the hard cores and the snowbirds. Additionally, the draft lottery + forfeiture has ensured no shortcuts to general support or hope. In all of the losing, the Coyotes did not receive a McDavid, Eichel, Dahlin, Bedard, etc and only through a 3rd OA do they finally have a legit, potential, franchise, changing, prospect in Cooley.

However, the 14.606 of their last real year in Glendale still exceeds the current 12,921 of the 7th best team in the NHL. However, that market does not get the same level of scrutiny or criticism for not supporting their team because, you know, it's a traditional market and they are sooo passionate.

 

[TheLegend]

Probably all the confirmation needed that Merulo is going to be out. That's as far as they're going to want to go on it though.

More to the like..... Meruelo has to convince the league he has a solid plan in place ASAP or they'll start the ball rolling.