CXLVII - Is this the 'Final Countdown' in Arizona?

[MeHateHe]

Because I'm into finding hilarity in the oddest places, I think it would just be funny for Utah to have hockey team with a desert theme at the same time they have a basketball team named for a music style that is not exactly tied to the city's culture. Maybe the Florida Marlins will move to Salt Lake City next? Or the Dallas Cowboys?

 

[KevFu]

Every minute this continues is less money in the pockets of owners.
Nothing matters other than the $$$.

Okay. Follow that path here. How exactly are the OTHER NHL owners losing money?

The CBA is such that the top 10 in revenue give revenue to the teams that finished below the average revenue. So when the Coyotes finish 32nd in revenue, they get money to bump them up.

Using Forbes numbers, which are flawed as they probably already include the revenue sharing;

If the Coyotes move and become the richest team in the league with $300m in revenue, the league average goes up, and the bottom 20 teams are further behind league average.

Coyotes DMFL in revenue, the top are $520m over the average, and bottom 19 are $513m below
Coyotes first in revenue, the top are $540m over the average, but the bottom 20 are $600m below.

The only teams who are "losing money" by the Coyotes situation are the Coyotes and the team that's 10th now and paying RS, who'd be 11th and no paying RS if Coyotes were Top 10.

Of course, the Coyotes are never going to be Top 10. The Panthers have never been Top 10, and that's probably the best comparison for those two markets. If the Coyotes made $48m million more in revenue, right around the Panthers, then the league average only goes up $2m, and the bottom 20 teams all fall behind by another $1m.


The CBA is such that every franchise actually becomes healthier if you contracted the richest teams, not the poorest. We want the Coyotes to make more money because growing revenues is basically good. But the only one "Losing money" on the situation are the Coyotes.

 

[aqib]

I dunno, it would give SLC time to ramp up their marketing and upgrade their arena. It's not as if there are a lot of ticket sales to lose out at Mullett anyhow, and I doubt Bettman is too worried about Meruelo taking a haircut at this point anyhow.

The quick move to Winnipeg only really worked because everything was already in place.

Winnipeg was able to leverage the existing business staff from the Moose. Why couldn't SLC do the same with the Jazz business staff? Now TNSE swapped out the Thrasher hockey staff with the Moose staff. If SLC are keeping the coach/GM they will be fine. If they do it now as opposed to end of May the extra couple of months.

f "not having an arena deal done right now" as failure, sure. But every deal is in that same state of not being done until it is.

And the comments in the article are coming from the NHLPA, not the NHL. The NHLPA has very little power or say in an ownership matter like that. They can refuse to sign a CBA that involves members playing in

You would think that if there was strong momentum towards getting an arena deal done, Bettman would have given Walsh an update and told him to cool it. Same with Smith. I doubt he would have gone public without Bettman letting him know it was ok. He had to know what happened to Balsillie.

 

[KevFu]

Everyone always talks about attendance for fanbases and argues over relatively minute differences of 1-3k more/less. While ignoring broadcast viewership. Which are larger numbers and matter much more (local/regional rights deals and what they contribute to national rights deals.)

So when people blather on about attendance while equating it to totally of fanbase also while 100% of the time leaving out local/regional/contribution to national broadcast avg viewership. That's first sign they don't know what they're talking about.

Amen to your overall point: That people focus on the specifics of INDICATORS and completely ignore the "WHY we use those things as indicators" part, and what we want them to indicate.

But of course there needs to be the caveat of how TV numbers are just another indicator, and how antiquated, and silly local TV ratings are.

The methodology of TV ratings reminds me of Nate Silver stuff: it sounds really smart and then you notice one key thing that's like so beyond ridiculous. Like how he judged NHL popularity using "Google searches for N.H.L." (Who's putting in the periods? If you're a hockey fan, would you ever GOOGLE the NHL? Also, does he not know Bookmarks exist? It's 2024, you can literally look up that NHL.com had 64.8 million hits in the US in the month of December 2023).


And tying the future financial health of pro sports leagues to CABLE TV doesn't seem like a smart business strategy for leagues at the moment, now does it?

 

[Coyotedroppings]

There was a massive subsidy and a ton of backroom dealings and only Coyotes fans are in denial of that. It's a good thing the Tempe voters saw through the nonsense. Once again, Coyotes fans live in their own reality and this imminent departure is as much on them as anyone else.

Oh Erndog, you really don't know what the hell you're talking about. The arena deal at the TED, as far as arena deals go, was favorable for the citizens of Tempe.

 

[Coyotedroppings]

Maybe Coyotes fans could buy tickets and merchandise, as well as sit and watch.

Perhaps the fans who already do that are great supporters and everything, but the absence of even greater fan support must have some role to play here?

They absolutely do. The valley is full of fair weather, bandwagon jumping, root for the teams from the cities they used to live in nutless puking excuses for fans and it takes a long, long time for that to change.

 

[Ernie]

Oh Erndog, you really don't know what the hell you're talking about. The arena deal at the TED, as far as arena deals go, was favorable for the citizens of Tempe.

"As arena deals go" huh? You're right in that the majority of subsidized arena deals are not beneficial to local citizens. Just ask the citizens of Glendale!

 

[StreetHawk]

How did I miss that the Suns had been bought a little over a year ago?

The Coyotes have been for sale so many times over the last 15 years I always completely dismissed the Suns as buying them. But I suppose it's not impossible that new ownership, Mat Ishbia, might want to bring both teams together under one roof and pursue a new arena.

Looking through Ishbia's bio - he's 100% a basketball guy (won a national championship with Michigan State), with no apparent affinity for hockey, so that's one thing.

One roof unlikely. The Footprint arena underwent $260 mill in renovations around Covid. And because Sarver was the owner of the suns at the time, he wanted nothing to do with the Coyotes, thus the reno did not change any of the obstructed views. The city offered to knock down and rebuild a new arena on the same land if both clubs were to play there. Sarver was not on board with that plan. He'd rather the Coyotes move out of State and have 1 less competitor for the Suns.

Long term the Coyotes would not work at Footprint. And I doubt Ishbia would want to spend the time spearheading a new arena.

 

[Coyotedroppings]

I don't see anything necessarily wrong with the ownership group. Indeed Meruelo seems to be a far more stable owner then some of the other groups they had in the past.

The problem is the scenario Meruelo inherited. Meruelo took control in 2019. They were then hit by Covid. The Coyotes, which had been playing year-to-year in Glendale, then were kicked out in 2022. He negotiated for the team to play short-term in Mullett, and developed the Tempe plan. That was then rejected by voters, and here we are.

AM put the lying, lazy, glad hander XG in charge of the arena situation. This group is a bunch of asshats, the only thing they've done w/o screwing it up is the hockey side of things, which they stayed out of.

 

[NYI365]

In summary, it doesn't look like there's a land auction in the works, even if there was it would be months before it occurred. Friedman thinks that time is up but Bettman is being careful with his words because the league is going to take control and move the team, and it will all end up in court.

That's what I get from this too. Hopefully an end to a decades long turmoil is near one way or another



I'm assuming this is SLC, and a quick Google search confirms yes it is.

 

[KevFu]

You would think that if there was strong momentum towards getting an arena deal done, Bettman would have given Walsh an update and told him to cool it. Same with Smith. I doubt he would have gone public without Bettman letting him know it was ok. He had to know what happened to Balsillie.

I'm an Islanders fan: "Strong momentum on an arena deal" is Lucy placing a football for Charlie Brown.

I think too often there's a tendency when trying to "read the tea leaves" to assume organizations are hyper-competent coordinated powers, when they're really just a collective noun for individual flawed humans with different brains/logic, etc.

There's also a massive thing with sports fans, that when the media says "This guys says...." We assume he's asking everyone for their attention so he can speak. But really, the media ASKED, but cut out their question. Walsh was asked... at the ASG.

Why doesn't Gary Bettman rein him in? Why does he need to? Why get into it with the NHLPA's spokesman in the press when the status quo is the status quo, until it's not (Which that phrase sums up like 90% of what Bettman ever says). What's there to even update on? The Coyotes are looking for a new arena. Not really an update.


As for Smith, what motivation does he have to bring up Salt Lake publicly? Well, Utah is going hog wild on a media blitz about their commitment to sports, as part of their Olympic bid, which a new arena for the Jazz/NHL is a key part of that. I mean, he IS trying to get a $1.5 or $2 billion arena from taxpayers...

Both Smith and the Miller family are going back and forth shilling for their own billion dollar projects: Miller put up "Utah wants the A's" billboards, saying SLC can be a temporary home for them prior to SLC's expansion team (that he's bidding on) starting play the same year the Vegas park opens.

It doesn't all have to be a coordinate attack by a cabal of hyper-competent people. It can just be individuals acting in their own self-interest.

 

[Reaser]

But of course there needs to be the caveat of how TV numbers are just another indicator, and how antiquated, and silly local TV ratings are.

And tying the future financial health of pro sports leagues to CABLE TV doesn't seem like a smart business strategy for leagues at the moment, now does it?

Correct, just one 'indicator' but a larger slice of the importance pie and more important one than what people in these threads typical use on "fanbase" arguements.

TV numbers might be "silly" to you, and plenty of others, but there's a reason Nielsen is still the standard despite competing attempts at measurement and despite any complaints from networks. They remain, they're what advertisers use, they're what networks use, etc.. Antiquated doesn't fit when it's still the standard, currently and for the foreseeable future. Massive businesses use those "silly" TV ratings, both local and national, whether or not anyone likes how the sausage is made is irrelevant to how they're used in business of sports and what that means for revenue. Big businesses use them, they are big business.

Cable TV: only if you don't understand what's happening. Local/regional NHL viewership is up on cable (even when excluding streaming on things like MSG/NESN+, etc..) despite cable subs going down. How can that be?! A mystery to the uninitiated, but for those who understand "sports fans watch sports" tis not a surprise. Tons of sports viewership keeps going up (OOH viewing plays a big role) on cable. Sort of like how RSNs still exist, but all those headlines said "RSN business imploded" / "RSNs are dead" ... meanwhile, All but two of the U.S. based NHL teams are locally/regionally broadcast on? RSNs.

Regardless, wasn't tying FUTURE health, was showing that the Yotes don't have the local/regional fanbase. Like when you mention Buffalo and St. Louis as a pseudo-comparison while trying to group them in with Arizona as "bottom 1/3rd." BUF/STL DO have the fanbase, they aren't "bottom 1/3rd" on the "stats" as you put it, because you left out a massively important stat, broadcast ratings/viewership. How a majority of people watch the NHL. More people watch on TV than goto games, the 3.3M that watched the ASG across U.S. and Canada is more than the near 19k in attendance.

Buffalo is always 1st or 2nd in local ratings, and they carry the playoffs as far as neutral viewership (watching games their team isn't involved in.)

St. Louis, when good are top-5 in local ratings, fluctuate more than Buffalo but when they're bad they're still upper/mid-pack in local ratings, and they can do good national viewership. Hence the most-viewed NHL game since 1994 (Boston gets more credit for that but St. Louis played it's part in the 'record' too.) Also why the Blues have been picked as the visiting team in the Winter Classic in 2 of the last 4. Not for attendance reasons, but because STL helps viewership.

Their "fanbase" and what they contribute to the league is in no way comparable to the Coyotes [lack of] fanbase -- which again, isn't the fault of the fans the Coyotes do have, it's the fans they don't have that was the discussion.

 

[NYI365]

 

[Major4Boarding]

C'mon Craig...

 

[eojsmada]

Based on Friedman/Marek's conversation this morning, this feels like resolution is coming sooner than most expected.

 

[Headshot77]

Yes, but the announcement happened at the end of May, not February.

I'm not willing to make many predictins when it comes to the Coyotes, but I will predict this:

*IF* a move is announced, it will only be announced after the season is over.

I think they should announce it sooner. Give the fans a chance to say goodbye.

 

[JimAnchower]

Are we within the 24 hour window for the 2/8 state land department meeting agenda? If nothing is there by now, it may not be bid on, which itself could be an answer. Next meeting is March 14.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

Wait, is the Super Bowl two weeks away?

Deep cut

 

[KevFu]

Correct, just one 'indicator' but a larger slice of the importance pie and more important one than what people in these threads typical use on "fanbase" arguements.

Buffalo is always 1st or 2nd in local ratings, and they carry the playoffs as far as neutral viewership (watching games their team isn't involved in.)

I think you and I are largely on the same page. Yeah, the TV industry uses the Nielsen's because that's what they got.

But the Buffalo thing illustrates my point: Buffalo has among the highest percentage of "single male, head of household" residences of all the major markets with sports teams.

The stereotype is Single people living in NYC move to New Jersey and Long Island when they get married, have kids, and need the white picket fence in the suburbs. aka, lower "Single-male head of household" statistics.

Now of course, women are sports fans, too. (somewhere between a 60-40 split, and it's the inverse for reality TV).

But the big stat is: 76% of people who watch "sports more than anything else on TV" are male. THAT'S the demo of people tuning in to local teams on RSNs, which we're trying to use the Nielsen's to measure.

When Nielson hands out meter boxes to a cross-section of each market and 11% of Buffalo is single-male head-of-household, they're far more likely to get boxes into the homes of dudes who watch sports more than anything else than New Jersey or Long Island.

What's the more likely scenario, that the Sabres have 10x the fans the Devils and Islanders do? Or the combo of Comcast dropping MSG in New Jersey and Connecticut, and the Neilsen's counting the target demo in Buffalo 3x as much as the Devils/Islanders?

 

[Ernie]

Are we within the 24 hour window for the 2/8 state land department meeting agenda? If nothing is there by now, it may not be bid on, which itself could be an answer. Next meeting is March 14.

Friedman called and confirmed that was the final agenda. He said it's possible this could happen in camera but seemed to think that was highly unlikely.

 

[MNNumbers]

Wait, is the Super Bowl two weeks away?

Deep cut

Because it's Super Bowl weekend, wouldn't Friday afternoon this week be the perfect time to announce 'bad' news. I mean if you are Bettman.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

What is this, 2008?

 

[GKJ]

Probably all the confirmation needed that Merulo is going to be out. That's as far as they're going to want to go on it though.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

I will say, my speculation from the summer that this entire year was nothing but a lame duck from the beginning, with a token effort to find a new location and an eventual relocation to SLC for the start of the 2024/2025 season is basically playing out exactly as I'd expect it to.

The relocation rumblings just came a few weeks after I thought they would start in that scenario.

 

[jkrdevil]

The NHL is never going to officially announce anything until the season is over to not undercut on going business in Az. But it sure seems like they are laying the groundwork behind the scenes.