CXLVII - Is this the 'Final Countdown' in Arizona?

[TheLegend]

Ok, now relocation may seem to be the betting favorite. If there's a local group, they've been doing everything in the dark.

Irony of this is…..

Seravalli knows less about Arizona than people here do.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Unsure of local quirks in AZ but important to understand how hard it is to assemble and tie up the acreage needed for something of this size. Especially when everyone and their mother has you bent over a barrel because of a deadline.

The timeline legitimately might be faster via public land.

 

[TheLegend]

They were paid (on average) $6.6m per year - a similar amount to what Glendale paid to have ASM manage their arena. Those payments were heavily tilted upfront but secured by a letter of credit where the county would get all their money back plus some more if the team bailed. I believe that everything was funded through a hotel tax that the local tourism industry openly agreed with.

Here's a summary of the deal: View attachment 815926

If they could go back in time, neither Glendale nor Broward would build those arenas. Tempe narrowly avoided the same fate, despite all the shameless clamouring from Coyotes fans. What this deal represents is making the best of a bad situation and working collaboratively together out in the open - the absolute opposite of the way that things have gone down with the Coyotes.

Except Tempe wasn’t building the arena at TED (the documents are all still on their website). Meruelo was.

So your attempt here to draw comparisons is pointless.

 

[GKJ]

 

[Ciao]

I don't have any expert knowledge and precious little information to work with, but my largely uninformed view is that the Commissioner is nowhere near ready to throw in the towel on Phoenix, Arizona.

Really, objectively, it should be a very desirable market for the NHL despite the sad history of its franchise there.

The long-term goal could very well be to find ways to make it work in place. Not at their present venue, but within the greater Phoenix area.

 

[Ernie]

Except Tempe wasn’t building the arena at TED (the documents are all still on their website). Meruelo was.

So your attempt here to draw comparisons is pointless.

There was a massive subsidy and a ton of backroom dealings and only Coyotes fans are in denial of that. It's a good thing the Tempe voters saw through the nonsense. Once again, Coyotes fans live in their own reality and this imminent departure is as much on them as anyone else.

I don't have any expert knowledge and precious little information to work with, but my largely uninformed view is that the Commissioner is nowhere near ready to throw in the towel on Phoenix, Arizona.

Really, objectively, it should be a very desirable market for the NHL despite the sad history of its franchise there.

The long-term goal could very well be to find ways to make it work in place. Not at their present venue, but within the greater Phoenix area.

They need to find serious people as owners for that to work out, something they haven't been able to do.

 

[GKJ]

I don't have any expert knowledge and precious little information to work with, but my largely uninformed view is that the Commissioner is nowhere near ready to throw in the towel on Phoenix, Arizona.

Really, objectively, it should be a very desirable market for the NHL despite the sad history of its franchise there.

The long-term goal could very well be to find ways to make it work in place. Not at their present venue, but within the greater Phoenix area.

I don't think anyone would argue that Bettman can and will exhaust any avenue and resource to do that.

 

[TheLegend]

There was a massive subsidy and a ton of backroom dealings and only Coyotes fans are in denial of that. It's a good thing the Tempe voters saw through the nonsense. Once again, Coyotes fans live in their own reality and this imminent departure is as much on them as anyone else.

Again… the documents for TED are all still there available for you to read.

Go read them and actually learn something instead of blustering about what Coyotes fans are in denial about

 

[Ernie]

Again… the documents for TED are all still there available for you to read.

Go read them and actually learn something instead of blustering about what Coyotes fans are in denial about

Every time you deny this, you reaffirm my point. Meruelo cannot build an arena without subsidies, which is why no other projects have materialized.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

I don't have any expert knowledge and precious little information to work with, but my largely uninformed view is that the Commissioner is nowhere near ready to throw in the towel on Phoenix, Arizona.

Really, objectively, it should be a very desirable market for the NHL despite the sad history of its franchise there.

The long-term goal could very well be to find ways to make it work in place. Not at their present venue, but within the greater Phoenix area.

I agree with this.

I am very confident the NHL can work in Arizona if done properly. Look at Vegas, it can work in the desert. It can work in Phoenix too, I'm sure of it.

Can the Coyotes specifically work? I genuinely have no idea. To some degree I would argue it's a poisoned brand, but that guarantees nothing one way or the other.

 

[Yukon Joe]

How did I miss that the Suns had been bought a little over a year ago?

The Coyotes have been for sale so many times over the last 15 years I always completely dismissed the Suns as buying them. But I suppose it's not impossible that new ownership, Mat Ishbia, might want to bring both teams together under one roof and pursue a new arena.

Looking through Ishbia's bio - he's 100% a basketball guy (won a national championship with Michigan State), with no apparent affinity for hockey, so that's one thing.

 

[Headshot77]

There was a massive subsidy and a ton of backroom dealings and only Coyotes fans are in denial of that. It's a good thing the Tempe voters saw through the nonsense. Once again, Coyotes fans live in their own reality and this imminent departure is as much on them as anyone else.



They need to find serious people as owners for that to work out, something they haven't been able to do.

Blaming the Coyotes saga on the FANS is the most ridiculous thing I've ever read on this site. Blame for all of this can be pointed in a thousand different directions, but all a Coyotes fan can do it sit and watch really. They have no control over this situation.

 

[KevFu]

I have an intense disdain for when people make up a limited menu of choices, and then act like those are the only choices, completely ignoring practically limitless number of possibilities.

You see it a lot in TV/movies, where one character presents two choices and they have to pick one, when they DON'T have to pick one. Listing those two options is really just in the script to trick the audience into accepting the usually nonsensical route the character's take. Like someone in the writer's room said "Wait, why wouldn't they just do (something else)?". And the room yelled "Cause then we'd have no story!" (Obvious example: Why didn't Thanos just snap double the universe's resources into existence? Because then it's an economics symposium and not an action movie).


This reminds me a lot of that. Putting equal weight on Options 1, 2, 3 is really misleading to the audience. Option 1 is basically the obvious and status quo until such time that the current owner decides he doesn't want to try that anymore.

 

[Ciao]

Blaming the Coyotes saga on the FANS is the most ridiculous thing I've ever read on this site. Blame for all of this can be pointed in a thousand different directions, but all a Coyotes fan can do it sit and watch really. They have no control over this situation.

Maybe Coyotes fans could buy tickets and merchandise, as well as sit and watch.

Perhaps the fans who already do that are great supporters and everything, but the absence of even greater fan support must have some role to play here?

 

[Yukon Joe]

This reminds me a lot of that. Putting equal weight on Options 1, 2, 3 is really misleading to the audience. Option 1 is basically the obvious and status quo until such time that the current owner decides he doesn't want to try that anymore.

Well the question is (and has been for a long time) is at what point does the league try to force a sale of the franchise, whether the current owner wants to or not.

I don't think it's ever been tested in the NHL. We know it happened in the NBA (LA Clippers) but in different circumstances. I did hear Friedman on the 32 Thoughts Podcast (or was it Marek's radio show) saying it was an option, and that other owners didn't think it would be mush of a precedent to be used against them later.

 

[TLEH]

1) Feel really bad for hockey fans in Arizona
2) This has gone way too far.
3) Phoenix market isn't the problem. This ownership group will fail anywhere.

 

[Yukon Joe]

1) Feel really bad for hockey fans in Arizona
2) This has gone way too far.
3) Phoenix market isn't the problem. This ownership group will fail anywhere.

I don't see anything necessarily wrong with the ownership group. Indeed Meruelo seems to be a far more stable owner then some of the other groups they had in the past.

The problem is the scenario Meruelo inherited. Meruelo took control in 2019. They were then hit by Covid. The Coyotes, which had been playing year-to-year in Glendale, then were kicked out in 2022. He negotiated for the team to play short-term in Mullett, and developed the Tempe plan. That was then rejected by voters, and here we are.

 

[Ernie]

In summary, it doesn't look like there's a land auction in the works, even if there was it would be months before it occurred. Friedman thinks that time is up but Bettman is being careful with his words because the league is going to take control and move the team, and it will all end up in court.

 

[Ernie]

I don't see anything necessarily wrong with the ownership group. Indeed Meruelo seems to be a far more stable owner then some of the other groups they had in the past.

Even if it were true, that's not saying a lot.

The problem is the scenario Meruelo inherited. Meruelo took control in 2019. They were then hit by Covid.

So was every other team in the league.

The Coyotes, which had been playing year-to-year in Glendale, then were kicked out in 2022.

And how did that happen, again?

He negotiated for the team to play short-term in Mullett, and developed the Tempe plan. That was then rejected by voters, and here we are.

And who bears the responsibility for that screwup? They got beaten in that referendum campaign by a ragtag bunch of grassroot types. They're lucky they didn't actually face any kind of experienced opposition or they would have lost by a mile.

 

[TLEH]

I don't see anything necessarily wrong with the ownership group. Indeed Meruelo seems to be a far more stable owner then some of the other groups they had in the past.

The problem is the scenario Meruelo inherited. Meruelo took control in 2019. They were then hit by Covid. The Coyotes, which had been playing year-to-year in Glendale, then were kicked out in 2022. He negotiated for the team to play short-term in Mullett, and developed the Tempe plan. That was then rejected by voters, and here we are.

I mean in 2021 they owed the city over a million dollars in taxes, two years into his control.

An email dated 9 December 2021 from ASM Global to Patrick Murphy, the Coyotes president, clarified that the team had issued checks for a total of $999,000 but these were partial payments and the franchise still owed over $2.7m. The email then details a structured payment plan with funds due on 20 December 2021, 31 January 2022 and 1 March 2022.

A 20 October 2021 letter to the Mayor of Glendale on Coyotes letterhead from Marina Carpenter, general counsel for the team, memorialized some key meetings but also put forth disputes. For example, she conceded that the Coyotes did not resolve their financial obligations for the 2020-21 season until after the city “graciously waived 100% of the base Arena Rent.”

Then was forced to sign a lease at a 5k arena because they put all their eggs into the Tempe basket. That was their decision. They've had since 2022 to come up with some sort of plan. Buy some land.. do... something? They haven't. They've TRIED plans, but trying sometimes isn't enough.

 

[Brent Burns]

Every minute this continues is less money in the pockets of owners. You can sense they’ve had enough. Relocation is imminent. Nothing matters other than the $$$. AZ has been a loss leader for the NHL (ie. owners) with the hope of recouping losses in the long term. That hasn’t occurred. As much other info is available, it all comes down to $$$.

 

[KevFu]

Maybe Coyotes fans could buy tickets and merchandise, as well as sit and watch.

Perhaps the fans who already do that are great supporters and everything, but the absence of even greater fan support must have some role to play here?

Nah. We can see from other markets that when there's headlines about ownership debacles, attendance craters, regardless of "the market."

For example, the Stars lost 4000 fans per game when Tom Hicks used bankruptcy to re-organize his debt after buying Liverpool. The health of the Stars was never in question, but fans don't really get that from the headlines.

When ownership debacles hit the papers, fans stay away like the franchise just announced it has leprosy.


And for about the 2000th time, we have data as evidence that the concept of "the market" doesn't really exist and is dumb: We had a Top 3 revenue team, Bottom 3 revenue team, and Middle 3 revenue team... in the same market for like 30 years. The Islanders were in a very similar situation as the Coyotes -- just not quite as bad -- with a series of owners who either didn't want the team or were nightmares, needing a new permanent home for 20 years and playing in multiple, undersized venues until a legitimate solution was found.


Look at the Coyotes year-by-year attendance compared to their place in the standings. There's basically zero correlation since the Moyes bankruptcy. In the first year with a new owner and a lease agreement, a completely terrible team drew better crowds than when the Coyotes were a good playoff team in a season that was clouded by ownership and arena questions.

The Coyotes have just never had a legitimate NHL arena that serves their entire market and stable ownership at the same time.

Just being in the bottom third of stats like attendance and revenue is totally fine, because someone has to be. No one ever talks about Buffalo and St. Louis, but they've been in the top half of revenue in the NHL like maybe never (?). They're almost always in the bottom third of revenue. But they've had the holy trinity of "owner, arena and lease" for the last 40 years or so, so no one's really talked about moving them since the early 80s.

 

[TLEH]

I mean I'm not one of those people that's trying to be irrational about it. We've got an NHL team playing in a 5k person arena they don't even own. They are 2 years into this "plan" and don't have any progress in any direction. What exactly do you want the NHL to do? They've been given an insane amount of leash in this market. I feel awful for Phoenix and the Coyotes fans and everything. I'm sympathetic, but even the most staunch supporter (Gary) is just getting fed up.

 

[Yukon Joe]

On the other hand if they move the message will be emphasized as the NHL is coming Utah and less so about Arizona losing the team. Perhaps a leak could happen on a Friday followed by a denial until the deal is done.

The announcement of the Thrashers to Winnipeg happened on Tuesday morning IIRC

Yes, but the announcement happened at the end of May, not February.

I'm not willing to make many predictins when it comes to the Coyotes, but I will predict this:

*IF* a move is announced, it will only be announced after the season is over.

 

[Reaser]

Perhaps the fans who already do that are great supporters and everything, but the absence of even greater fan support must have some role to play here?

Yup, but it's incorrect phrasing. You don't blame the fans they do have, it's not their fault. It's the fans they don't have.

Everyone always talks about attendance for fanbases and argues over relatively minute differences of 1-3k more/less. While ignoring broadcast viewership. Which are larger numbers and matter much more (local/regional rights deals and what they contribute to national rights deals.)

That's where we see the lack of fanbase for the Yotes, long history of year-after-year absolutely horrible local/regional viewership, even after playoff runs, even when the team was good, etc.. Essentially no one (other than the fans they DO have, which is extremely small # regardless of market size) has watched. Also why national partners avoid picking Coyotes games like the plaque -- two seasons ago their national appearances averaged 176k, last season averaged 150k. Brutal numbers, Yotes are ratings killers. Not popular (true minuscule fanbase) in-market, that market doesn't help nationally and obviously they have no national fanbase (which applies to many in the NHL, local carries national viewership in most cases -- other than like the Bruins who you can black-out in a national game and still get a good rating/viewership for the game because outside of New England you'll still find enough Bruins fans.)

So when people blather on about attendance while equating it to totally of fanbase also while 100% of the time leaving out local/regional/contribution to national broadcast avg viewership. That's first sign they don't know what they're talking about.