CXLVII - Is this the 'Final Countdown' in Arizona?

[Shwan]

I wonder if this could be in response to Walsh's comments about the Coyotes not selling out?

Arizona Coyotes offering 'Build Your Own Flex Plan' with discounts to team store, more

Man I wasn't going to bring it up but I saw this today and c'mon ABC15 OEL hasn't been on the team for awhile now.

 

[mouser]

Sure...but if the NHL (or the PA) is acting in bad faith, than any no strike (or no lockout) agreement can be nullified. Just because it's agreed to, there has to be good faith on both sides to hold up their end of the agreement or else it can negate said agreement.

And as to the "side agreements" portion. There are some things that are worth not taking side deals for, if it continues to push off necessary changes to the overall structure. The NHL rarely ever takes on expansion until it is in a place of labor certainty. So if the PA makes things tenuous on that front, then they do exert a level of influence over whether the NHL goes ahead with any expansion or not.

That Walsh is saying these things publicly is not without merit. Nor is it falling on deaf ears, I would imagine. With the CBA set to expire in just over two years, I wouldn't be shocked if this is Walsh trying to signal the most pressing "needs" in any preliminary discussions leading up to that. I'm sure the NHL would love to ratify either a new CBA or extend the current one (with modifications) at the earliest possible time.

There’s a very high legal hurdle to say either party is acting in “bad faith”. The NHL preferring to keep franchises in existing locations is not bad faith—there are fundamental business reasons for the league to do so. Not simply for the Arizona franchise, but also to promote stability and franchise valuations for all of the 32 teams.

Walsh is saying things because he and the PA are justifiably upset. Still at the end of the day the PA is powerless to intervene. When the next CBA negotiations start Arizona or any other individual franchise issue will be well down the PA’s priority list. The PA will have more important objectives they hope to gain when negotiating the next CBA.

 

[aqib]

Oh, so there's a mid season deadline?! What are we bickering about then?

https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/arizona-coyotes/news/coyotes-looking-to-make-arena-announcement-within-next-60-days

We are 14 games in. Give me a break.

XG's quote:
“We know that within the next call it 60 days, there's going to be some public announcement. We've committed to the NHL that we will resolve this issue by the end of the first quarter, probably by mid season.”
There are basically 3 dates in 2 sentances. He said 60 days (which from the October 20th date of the article) would put it at December 19. Then he said mid-season, which would be January 14th or 15th (since it would be after the 41st game). But by the end of the 1st quarter (March 31).

So he plans to announce something by December 19 and have it done by March 31. K

 

[PainForShane]

Everything you described about the situation is true, it's just that the lease is really a non-factor in the whole thing. It's been that way since they paid for it up front.

It won't happen, but if the Suns said "we're going to renovate for hockey and it'll be ready next year, want in?" They'd break the lease.

Well yeah, of course. Clearly if the Yotes had anywhere else better to go, they would've been there this whole time instead of the Mullett. But they don't. So here we are.

And yes, we also prepaid the lease, and like I think both of us are saying, this prepayment is largely irrelevant. You're saying the entire lease is non-factor, I don't completely agree -- with a lease in place there's no chance of us being kicked out the arena and it limits the pressure to sign an even worse lease, which depending on who you believe seems to have heavily contributed to even more bad blood between the team and Gila River / Desert Diamond. Probably the team's late payments also contributed, but with the prepayment, all of those issues / potential issues go away.

Regardless of the lease (and the pre-payment of the lease), we still don't have anywhere better where we'd choose to play instead. So we'll be in Mullett at least the next year or two while we figure out the long term plan.

Also to your point, would love it if Ishbia renovated Footprint and we moved there. And if this happened we'd still be in the Valley, which is by far the most important part of this to any of us actual fans (and also the main part of my claim in the first place). So like... let's see what this ownership proposes and whether they can make it work, those are the next steps in all of this

 

[Llama19]

Longtime Tempe official won't seek reelection, running for Maricopa County office instead

To quote:

"Tempe City Councilmember Joel Navarro is “stepping aside” from his role on the council after serving 16 years in that position, deciding instead to pursue a spot on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors next year.

It’s the first shake-up in what could be a transformative March election for the city. Four council positions are on the ballot at a time when Tempe is beset with controversies, which include being the subject of a state investigation and recent revelations that years of mismanagement within the Police Department could jeopardize hundreds of major cases.

Navarro largely has “no regrets” about his time on the City Council, but acknowledged that one of the low points was the outcome of the Arizona Coyotes project. He and other city officials championed the multibillion-dollar proposal before voters resoundingly rejected it in May.

“I think that was a learning lesson. Getting the correct information out, not only during the (proposal) process but after the process, was strategically important,” he said. “I think those are the biggest things and making sure that people are well educated and aware.”"

Source: www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/tempe/2023/11/16/tempe-city-councilmember-joel-navarro-aims-maricopa-county-board-supervisors/71596433007/

 

[Major4Boarding]

XG's quote:
“We know that within the next call it 60 days, there's going to be some public announcement. We've committed to the NHL that we will resolve this issue by the end of the first quarter, probably by mid season.”
There are basically 3 dates in 2 sentances. He said 60 days (which from the October 20th date of the article) would put it at December 19. Then he said mid-season, which would be January 14th or 15th (since it would be after the 41st game). But by the end of the 1st quarter (March 31).

So he plans to announce something by December 19 and have it done by March 31. K

Adding for consideration. Some fiscal calendars start in October. Not exactly sure if this is the case here, but Q1 would end close or around the same time as the “60 days“ mentioned and just shy of the midpoint of the season.

Hell, anyone paying attention over the years would know that the May mid-Playoff League announcements are what everybody should be circling on their NHL “Business” calendar

 

[Llama19]

Coyotes president says Phoenix metro should be the center of the sports business world

To quote:

"Xavier Gutierrez, the president and CEO of the Coyotes, recently called for Valley business leaders not to takes the region's place in the sports world for granted.

“Arizona needs to be seen as the center of the sports business world in all aspects,” Gutierrez said. “If you think of what goes on here from Nov. 1 through April, there is literally not a sport, a sporting event, a sports business that doesn't come and touch this community.”

One of the top ways Gutierrez thinks this can happen is if the Valley can entice institutional capital management firms to open offices here, which could lead to more investments in Phoenix businesses, especially in the sports realm.

He has one specific target in mind – Canadian pension funds.

“This is the second largest Canadian snowbird market in America, next to South Florida, and what I have lamented is how do we not leverage the fact that there are Canadian pension fund investment professionals that come and stay here for months on end to then convince those pension funds to open up offices here,” Gutierrez said."

Source (Paywall): www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2023/11/17/phoenix-center-sports-business-world.html

 

[aqib]

Adding for consideration. Some fiscal calendars start in October. Not exactly sure if this is the case here, but Q1 would end close or around the same time as the “60 days“ mentioned and just shy of the midpoint of the season.
Hell, anyone paying attention over the years would know that the May mid-Playoff League announcements are what everybody should be circling on their NHL “Business” calendar

I think it was pretty obvious by first quarter he was referring to the calendar year which is consistent with what the league said before.

While moves have occurred later in the year the Winnipeg experience indicates more time is better.

 

[Ernie]

Coyotes president says Phoenix metro should be the center of the sports business world

To quote:

"Xavier Gutierrez, the president and CEO of the Coyotes, recently called for Valley business leaders not to takes the region's place in the sports world for granted.

“Arizona needs to be seen as the center of the sports business world in all aspects,” Gutierrez said. “If you think of what goes on here from Nov. 1 through April, there is literally not a sport, a sporting event, a sports business that doesn't come and touch this community.”

One of the top ways Gutierrez thinks this can happen is if the Valley can entice institutional capital management firms to open offices here, which could lead to more investments in Phoenix businesses, especially in the sports realm.

He has one specific target in mind – Canadian pension funds.

“This is the second largest Canadian snowbird market in America, next to South Florida, and what I have lamented is how do we not leverage the fact that there are Canadian pension fund investment professionals that come and stay here for months on end to then convince those pension funds to open up offices here,” Gutierrez said."

Source (Paywall): www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2023/11/17/phoenix-center-sports-business-world.html

Gutierrez wants Canadians to invest in the Coyotes? That's a good one. Snowbirds are generally middle class retirees, not pension fund managers.

 

[BMN]

Gutierrez wants Canadians to invest in the Coyotes? That's a good one. Snowbirds are generally middle class retirees, not pension fund managers.

I don't know how many times it needs to be repeated to sports owners but transplants should be the "gravy" of your attendance and not its base.

 

[Fatass]

Gutierrez wants Canadians to invest in the Coyotes? That's a good one. Snowbirds are generally middle class retirees, not pension fund managers.

And those snowbirds have their own clubs they cheer for. They will go to those games, but not the others on the schedule.
The fan base needs to be the local people.
Is the club struggling to fill 5000 seats?

 

[BMN]

And those snowbirds have their own clubs they cheer for. They will go to those games, but not the others on the schedule.

But I'll go one step further than that:

They won't go to the other games on the schedule and they won't watch the Coyotes on television, which is the biggest argument for putting teams in "non traditional" major metros in the first place. Because they are huge TV markets.

Absolutely have a plan to get as much money of the transplant fan as possible. 100%. But don't make that the primary plan. That's a recipe for failure.

 

[Fatass]

But I'll go one step further than that:

They won't go to the other games on the schedule and they won't watch the Coyotes on television, which is the biggest argument for putting teams in "non traditional" major metros in the first place. Because they are huge TV markets.

Absolutely have a plan to get as much money of the transplant fan as possible. 100%. But don't make that the primary plan. That's a recipe for failure.

I remember reading (can’t find it now) that during Covid, when rinks had restricted attendance, the Coyotes TV numbers were still very low. There was no bump in viewers

 

[Llama19]

I remember reading (can’t find it now) that during Covid, when rinks had restricted attendance, the Coyotes TV numbers were still very low. There was no bump in viewers

During COVID...the Coyotes was one of the few teams that allowed fans...

During the first half of the shortened season...the maximum capacity was 3,450...and their average was 2,630 or 76.2%...when it was double later to 7,900...their percentage average actually FELL to 61.4%...

TV rating were tanking, too...as they had a 58% drop in viewership on Bally Sports Arizona...

Source: www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Journal/Issues/2022/05/09/Insiders/Sports-media.aspx

 

[Tawnos]

I don't know how many times it needs to be repeated to sports owners but transplants should be the "gravy" of your attendance and not its base.

It takes a generation to establish a large enough local fan base to be self-sustaining, and you have to do things right in that first generation to establish it successfully. Transplants can help with the early years. They can also help with a market reset, which is what a new arena in the area will be if it ever happens.

In the Coyotes case, it’s the “doing things right” that’s been the problem. People like to use attendance and TV ratings to try to make a point about the market, but at this stage most of those things are knock-on effects of how much the Coyotes haven’t done things right. The situation in Arizona is an object lesson in organizational failure, not market failure.

 

[Boris Zubov]

It takes a generation to establish a large enough local fan base to be self-sustaining, and you have to do things right in that first generation to establish it successfully. Transplants can help with the early years. They can also help with a market reset, which is what a new arena in the area will be if it ever happens.

In the Coyotes case, it’s the “doing things right” that’s been the problem. People like to use attendance and TV ratings to try to make a point about the market, but at this stage most of those things are knock-on effects of how much the Coyotes haven’t done things right. The situation in Arizona is an object lesson in organizational failure, not market failure.

I'd counter that it's been a bit on both sides. I'd give it an 70/30 split in favor of the Yotes incompetence, but the market has shown a ton of apathy, if not outright disinterest in the team.

 

[aqib]

It takes a generation to establish a large enough local fan base to be self-sustaining, and you have to do things right in that first generation to establish it successfully. Transplants can help with the early years. They can also help with a market reset, which is what a new arena in the area will be if it ever happens.

In the Coyotes case, it’s the “doing things right” that’s been the problem. People like to use attendance and TV ratings to try to make a point about the market, but at this stage most of those things are knock-on effects of how much the Coyotes haven’t done things right. The situation in Arizona is an object lesson in organizational failure, not market failure.

But again isn't the market a reason that they can't attract an ownership group that can do things correctly.

Since the NHL bought the Coyotes out of bankruptcy Tampa, Atlanta/Winnipeg, Buffalo, St Louis, New Jersey, Florida, Islanders, Carolina, Pittsburgh, and Ottawa have all changed hands. Then you have Vegas and Seattle who were added to the league. Now obviously the owners in Winnipeg, Buffalo, and St Louis were never going to buy teams in any other market. But those other ownership groups could have bought the Coyotes. Instead you've gotten a parade of charlatans.

 

[Tawnos]

I'd counter that it's been a bit on both sides. I'd give it an 70/30 split in favor of the Yotes incompetence, but the market has shown a ton of apathy, if not outright disinterest in the team.

I think it’s really difficult case to make, because you can’t really tell what’s percolating under the surface in a market until it gets a match thrown into it (yes, mixed metaphor). That’s what happened in Nashville and Carolina, which seemed like weak markets, until they weren’t.

 

[BMN]

It takes a generation to establish a large enough local fan base to be self-sustaining, and you have to do things right in that first generation to establish it successfully. Transplants can help with the early years. They can also help with a market reset, which is what a new arena in the area will be if it ever happens.

In the Coyotes case, it’s the “doing things right” that’s been the problem. People like to use attendance and TV ratings to try to make a point about the market, but at this stage most of those things are knock-on effects of how much the Coyotes haven’t done things right. The situation in Arizona is an object lesson in organizational failure, not market failure.

Not that I think you were making this inference but in case anyone else was, I wasn't stating this as any attack on the market. I agree completely that part of the problem in Arizona has absolutely been horrific mismanagement. What the % of that being the root cause vs. the % being the apathy of the market going in is something we've readily debated for a decade-plus on this forum but I'd like to think everyone could agree that neither number is a complete zero.

And yes, transplants can help. But they can't be the plan. 5,000 Chicagoans that live in metro Phoenix aren't going to become Coyotes fans even after 25 years in the market unless you have bandwagon success that is so off the charts as to be completely unrealistic. And it's actually a 50/50 prospect at best that their kids will become Coyotes fans. At some point, the plan has to be to make Arizona Coyotes fans out of honest-to-goodness born-and-raised-in-Arizona residents and other residents who just never had a favourite hockey team to begin with. Otherwise you're sunk.

 

[Yukon Joe]

I'd counter that it's been a bit on both sides. I'd give it an 70/30 split in favor of the Yotes incompetence, but the market has shown a ton of apathy, if not outright disinterest in the team.

I think it's really, really hard to argue that there's just something in the water in the Phoenix area that makes people not like hockey. If hockey can seemingly thrive in Las Vegas, or Nashville, then why not Phoenix?

So yes, I think it is almost entirely organizational incompetence on the part of the Yotes.

That being said however - to what extent has 25+ years of incompetence just poisoned the water for the Coyotes? Although the team has been in Arizona for a generation, I think it would take ANOTHER generation for the perception of the Yotes of being a bunch of hapless losers to go away.

 

[aqib]

I think it's really, really hard to argue that there's just something in the water in the Phoenix area that makes people not like hockey. If hockey can seemingly thrive in Las Vegas, or Nashville, then why not Phoenix?

So yes, I think it is almost entirely organizational incompetence on the part of the Yotes.

That being said however - to what extent has 25+ years of incompetence just poisoned the water for the Coyotes? Although the team has been in Arizona for a generation, I think it would take ANOTHER generation for the perception of the Yotes of being a bunch of hapless losers to go away.

The NHL was the first major league in Vegas by a full 3 years. The team was Vegas born (thats a big part of their marketing). Also, while UNLV basketball was a thing 30 years ago college sports don't really have a presence in Vegas.

Nashville, the Predators got there the same time as the Oilers/Titans. While UT is big in the state its still still 3 hours away from Nashville.

In both cases getting the NHL team was part of validating the cities as being more than just tourist destinations.

When the Coyotes arrived Phoenix already had the Suns for 28 years, the Cardinals for 8 years, and the Diamondbacks were already announced and the stadium was under construction.

Phoenix also has ASU

Add to that the economic differences. Per capita income is as follows:

Nashville: 74K
Phoenix: $39K
Vegas: $59K

So more competition and less per capita income make it harder.

 

[Yukon Joe]

The NHL was the first major league in Vegas by a full 3 years. The team was Vegas born (thats a big part of their marketing). Also, while UNLV basketball was a thing 30 years ago college sports don't really have a presence in Vegas.

Nashville, the Predators got there the same time as the Oilers/Titans. While UT is big in the state its still still 3 hours away from Nashville.

In both cases getting the NHL team was part of validating the cities as being more than just tourist destinations.

When the Coyotes arrived Phoenix already had the Suns for 28 years, the Cardinals for 8 years, and the Diamondbacks were already announced and the stadium was under construction.

Phoenix also has ASU

Add to that the economic differences. Per capita income is as follows:

Nashville: 74K
Phoenix: $39K
Vegas: $59K

So more competition and less per capita income make it harder.

But I mean you could make the same argument about Columbus - that it was the first pro sport in the city that would "validate" it. But while CBJ has been okay, I don't think they're exactly "hugely successful" - which probably also comes down to the franchise being a disappointment for pretty much its entire history. Now they're not as much of a disaster as Phoenix has been, so they do better than the Yotes

 

[Tawnos]

But again isn't the market a reason that they can't attract an ownership group that can do things correctly.

Since the NHL bought the Coyotes out of bankruptcy Tampa, Atlanta/Winnipeg, Buffalo, St Louis, New Jersey, Florida, Islanders, Carolina, Pittsburgh, and Ottawa have all changed hands. Then you have Vegas and Seattle who were added to the league. Now obviously the owners in Winnipeg, Buffalo, and St Louis were never going to buy teams in any other market. But those other ownership groups could have bought the Coyotes. Instead you've gotten a parade of charlatans.

I separate the market from the circumstances within the market, and it's the circumstances that caused what you're talking about.

Not that I think you were making this inference but in case anyone else was, I wasn't stating this as any attack on the market. I agree completely that part of the problem in Arizona has absolutely been horrific mismanagement. What the % of that being the root cause vs. the % being the apathy of the market going in is something we've readily debated for a decade-plus on this forum but I'd like to think everyone could agree that neither number is a complete zero.

And yes, transplants can help. But they can't be the plan. 5,000 Chicagoans that live in metro Phoenix aren't going to become Coyotes fans even after 25 years in the market unless you have bandwagon success that is so off the charts as to be completely unrealistic. And it's actually a 50/50 prospect at best that their kids will become Coyotes fans. At some point, the plan has to be to make Arizona Coyotes fans out of honest-to-goodness born-and-raised-in-Arizona residents and other residents who just never had a favourite hockey team to begin with. Otherwise you're sunk.

The surest way to build a fan base is not to quickly turn large numbers of adult people who weren’t Coyotes fans into Coyotes fans. It’s to do that with small to modest numbers of people consistently. The first small to modest group will have kids who are Coyotes fans, while the team continues pressing at those smaller groups of adults. The second groups kids will add to that, and so on. This is why I say it takes a generation to really be on solid footing.

The role transplants play is to complement the new fans you create, but you *need* those transplant fans early on to buoy the burgeoning locals to help stay solvent. Some of those transplants will also end up with kids who root for the Coyotes too.

In other words, they’re a stopgap. Of course, if you continually mismanage things whether due to incompetence, or the worst arena arrangement possible, or both (reality), then you never gain any traction to shift that balance. Which is where we are today. Luckily, for the Coyotes, that stopgap hasn't really gone anywhere and it will help them if they can find better footing and gain that traction.

I don’t agree “apathy of the market” part of this equation is any higher than zero. It’s not that the apathy isn’t there, it’s that I see it as as part of a different equation altogether. As I’ve said in other places, there isn’t a place of appropriate population that hockey can’t work in the United States. What apathy is there is a result of all the things they’ve done wrong. It’s not inherent and it won't be hard to overcome once they're in a stable position.

 

[Boris Zubov]

I think it's really, really hard to argue that there's just something in the water in the Phoenix area that makes people not like hockey. If hockey can seemingly thrive in Las Vegas, or Nashville, then why not Phoenix?

So yes, I think it is almost entirely organizational incompetence on the part of the Yotes.

That being said however - to what extent has 25+ years of incompetence just poisoned the water for the Coyotes? Although the team has been in Arizona for a generation, I think it would take ANOTHER generation for the perception of the Yotes of being a bunch of hapless losers to go away.

People love to compare Vegas & Phoenix because they are similar climates, but having lived in Vegas for 10 years I can tell you first hand these markets are light years apart. Even though Phoenix gets a ton of snow birds & tourism, the city is extremely spread out. All the tourism in Vegas in centered on the strip & the arena is fairly accessible to 500,000 people at any given time.

Sure Vegas locals have adopted the Knights & winning has been a a HUGE part of that, but the casinos hold massive blocks of season tickets which quietly flies under the radar. Maybe if the team wound up in Scottsdale instead of Glendale, the attendance figures aren't an issue, but nobody can convince me the TV ratings aren't indicative of the local apathy.

 

[Headshot77]

I don't know how many times it needs to be repeated to sports owners but transplants should be the "gravy" of your attendance and not its base.

In places like Miami and Phoenix, transplants are the majority of people that live there. These are relatively new developments that people are flocking to. There aren't many generational families that have lived in Phoenix for a century. In 1950 there were only 221,000 people in Phoenix.

Transplants are the turkey, the mashed potatoes, and the gravy of an Arizona sports franchise.