CXLVII - Is this the 'Final Countdown' in Arizona?

[BMN]

In 1950 there were only 221,000 people in Phoenix. Transplants are the turkey, the mashed potatoes, and the gravy of an Arizona sports frfranchise.

To re-quote myself, "At some point, the plan has to be to make Arizona Coyotes fans out of honest-to-goodness born-and-raised-in-Arizona residents and other residents who just never had a favourite hockey team to begin with. Otherwise you're sunk." So admittedly my use of the term of "transplant" in this case was somewhat flawed. A transplant from Canada for e.g. doesn't equate with a transplant from....I dunno rural White Plains or something.

The whole canard of "growing the game" rests on the idea that these markets are vastly populated areas of people who haven't been converted to hockey yet (or not converted beyond casual anyway). Thinking that the majority of Canadian transplants are dying to be Arizona Coyotes fans and dedicate their time to watching the local team is a recipe for failure. And again, I can't stress this enough, definitely still reach out to/market to those fans! A butt in the seat for even one game is a little bit more revenue that you didn't have and maybe a chance they'll bring the local as their plus-one to possibly be a Yotes fan in the future.

But otherwise, sorry to say it: but any plan to strengthen the Coyotes fanbase has to ultimately lead to converting some of the offspring of those 220K from the 1950s into a loyal base. It might shock you to learn most of those Canadian transplants are already aware of this game known as "hockey," have already developed a viewership pattern for it, and aren't likely to "GROW THE GAME" any time soon.

 

[jkrdevil]

I think it's really, really hard to argue that there's just something in the water in the Phoenix area that makes people not like hockey. If hockey can seemingly thrive in Las Vegas, or Nashville, then why not Phoenix?

So yes, I think it is almost entirely organizational incompetence on the part of the Yotes.

That being said however - to what extent has 25+ years of incompetence just poisoned the water for the Coyotes? Although the team has been in Arizona for a generation, I think it would take ANOTHER generation for the perception of the Yotes of being a bunch of hapless losers to go away.

They need to be stable off the ice and not have the appearance of having one foot out the door. Then become competitive on the ice.

If the local market thinks the team could leave at any point then people aren’t going treat the team as anything more than something to do on a random night out and not go to anymore than a few games a year. The organization has had relocation hanging over it since 2008. And of course with the arena situation it is as real as ever. You can’t build anything in that environment.

 

[aqib]

But I mean you could make the same argument about Columbus - that it was the first pro sport in the city that would "validate" it. But while CBJ has been okay, I don't think they're exactly "hugely successful" - which probably also comes down to the franchise being a disappointment for pretty much its entire history. Now they're not as much of a disaster as Phoenix has been, so they do better than the Yotes

Well Columbus while warmer than Cleveland isn't exactly sunbelt. Also, youth hockey was a thing in Ohio before the arrival of the Blue Jackets. Plus it's also the only major league pro-sport in the city. Although people in Cbus generally root for the other Ohio pro-teams, the Blue Jackets are the only one in Columbus and the business community has made supporting the team a priority.

They need to be stable off the ice and not have the appearance of having one foot out the door. Then become competitive on the ice.

If the local market thinks the team could leave at any point then people aren’t going treat the team as anything more than something to do on a random night out and not go to anymore than a few games a year. The organization has had relocation hanging over it since 2008. And of course with the arena situation it is as real as ever. You can’t build anything in that environment.

Chicken and egg. The team isn't stable because it doesn't have local support. It doesn't have local support because its not stable.

 

[aqib]

The surest way to build a fan base is not to quickly turn large numbers of adult people who weren’t Coyotes fans into Coyotes fans. It’s to do that with small to modest numbers of people consistently. The first small to modest group will have kids who are Coyotes fans, while the team continues pressing at those smaller groups of adults. The second groups kids will add to that, and so on. This is why I say it takes a generation to really be on solid footing.

The role transplants play is to complement the new fans you create, but you *need* those transplant fans early on to buoy the burgeoning locals to help stay solvent. Some of those transplants will also end up with kids who root for the Coyotes too.

In other words, they’re a stopgap. Of course, if you continually mismanage things whether due to incompetence, or the worst arena arrangement possible, or both (reality), then you never gain any traction to shift that balance. Which is where we are today. Luckily, for the Coyotes, that stopgap hasn't really gone anywhere and it will help them if they can find better footing and gain that traction.

I don’t agree “apathy of the market” part of this equation is any higher than zero. It’s not that the apathy isn’t there, it’s that I see it as as part of a different equation altogether. As I’ve said in other places, there isn’t a place of appropriate population that hockey can’t work in the United States. What apathy is there is a result of all the things they’ve done wrong. It’s not inherent and it won't be hard to overcome once they're in a stable position.

Usually when a league puts a team in a market that it hasn't already been in, its because people in that market already like the sport. Like when the NFL put expansion teams in Carolina and Jacksonville or relocated teams to Nashville and Las Vegas. They knew people in those markets liked football. When the NBA added teams in Charlotte, Miami, Orlando, Minnesota, Toronto, etc. They knew people there liked basketball.
You notice no one talks about the Diamondbacks leaving Arizona over the market/fan support. They are doing the stadium dance but no one is saying "the Diamondbacks need to get out of Arizona"
In almost 30 years the team has never proven there is a fan base.

 

[Tawnos]

Usually when a league puts a team in a market that it hasn't already been in, its because people in that market already like the sport. Like when the NFL put expansion teams in Carolina and Jacksonville or relocated teams to Nashville and Las Vegas. They knew people in those markets liked football. When the NBA added teams in Charlotte, Miami, Orlando, Minnesota, Toronto, etc. They knew people there liked basketball.
You notice no one talks about the Diamondbacks leaving Arizona over the market/fan support. They are doing the stadium dance but no one is saying "the Diamondbacks need to get out of Arizona"
In almost 30 years the team has never proven there is a fan base.

That hasn’t been true in hockey in 50 years.

 

[MeHateHe]

Has this megathread ever gone full week without a post before?

 

[Yukon Joe]

Has this megathread ever gone full week without a post before?

I mean, probably.

There's just no news on the Coyotes front - hard to keep talking.

At this point the Coyotes have a lease at Mullett until 2025. The team says they're doing just as well at Mullett as they were in Glendale, and I choose to believe them, but they're still losing money.

Since the Tempe deal fell through you think they have to announce something by, let's say, next off-season. If they go into the 2024-2025 season with no arena deal announced I suspect the writing is on the wall and the team is likely to relocate.

 

[Tawnos]

Has this megathread ever gone full week without a post before?

You ruined it. I was laying low hoping to have the final word in the megathread.

 

[Shwan]

Has this megathread ever gone full week without a post before?

I mean is this really noteworthy at this point? It's bordering on straight up George RR Martin level

 

[Devils 3silverones]

Well, there is that. Phew...

 

[mouser]

I mean is this really noteworthy at this point? It's bordering on straight up George RR Martin level

Coyotes have a long long way to go if they want to catch up to George RR Martin.

Dozen years since Martin released his most recent Song of Ice and Fire novel in 2011.


Tangent: I briefly met George at a Con in the late 80’s while he was writing episodes for the second edition of the Twilight Zone tv show—before he hit it big with GoT. Very personable and down to earth guy, great storyteller in person as well as on paper.

 

[TheLegend]

Usually when a league puts a team in a market that it hasn't already been in, its because people in that market already like the sport. Like when the NFL put expansion teams in Carolina and Jacksonville or relocated teams to Nashville and Las Vegas. They knew people in those markets liked football. When the NBA added teams in Charlotte, Miami, Orlando, Minnesota, Toronto, etc. They knew people there liked basketball.
You notice no one talks about the Diamondbacks leaving Arizona over the market/fan support. They are doing the stadium dance but no one is saying "the Diamondbacks need to get out of Arizona"
In almost 30 years the team has never proven there is a fan base.

Um.... not true.

They did quite well the first ten years when Jerry Colangelo wa the managing owner.

Arizona Diamondbacks Attendance, Stadiums, and Park Factors | Baseball-Reference.com

Arizona Diamondbacks Attendance, Stadiums, and Park Factors

www.baseball-reference.com

The last three have been devasted by a multitude of factors.

CoVID
Ownership fighting with the county over the stadium.
The stadium itself beginning to fall apart
Threats of moving from Arizona because of above said fighting.
Bad decisions on the roster (dumping popular players for cheaper ones that don't perform.)

You'll note most if not all of those items are ownership based.

DBacks fans do want a new ownership.


EDIT: Realized your last sentence may have referred to the Coyotes.

Hard to prove anything when you've been owned by a covey of groups who weren't serious about building the platform. And that includes the league.

 

[TheLegend]

Has this megathread ever gone full week without a post before?

Happens when people run out of old things to blather about.

Only reason why I bothered popping in here today was the tweet from Craig Morgan on Gutierrez clarifying the arena search timeline a bit.

As for THAT.... I think they're running a bit behind to their original timeline of site selection (originally was this past week),

 

[TheLegend]

Well, there is that. Phew...

Against the notion that the general expectation was they were going to anounce multiple sites and now say it will be THE site..... yeah......

 

[Devils 3silverones]

Against the notion that the general expectation was they were going to anounce multiple sites and now say it will be THE site..... yeah......

All good. I was just referring to that a comment was made on the board... I haven't been around here for a bit. Wasn't a drive by at all.

 

[TheLegend]

All good. I was just referring to that a comment was made on the board... I haven't been around here for a bit. Wasn't a drive by at all.

Didn't take it as a drive-by.

You could have skipped the last two to three pages of posts here and lost nothing.

 

[Devils 3silverones]

Didn't take it as a drive-by.

You could have skipped the last two to three pages of posts here and lost nothing.

I have. People gotta type. Oh... I am one. Damn Wednesday. Be well

 

[aqib]

Um.... not true.

They did quite well the first ten years when Jerry Colangelo wa the managing owner.

Arizona Diamondbacks Attendance, Stadiums, and Park Factors | Baseball-Reference.com

Arizona Diamondbacks Attendance, Stadiums, and Park Factors

www.baseball-reference.com

The last three have been devasted by a multitude of factors.

CoVID
Ownership fighting with the county over the stadium.
The stadium itself beginning to fall apart
Threats of moving from Arizona because of above said fighting.
Bad decisions on the roster (dumping popular players for cheaper ones that don't perform.)

You'll note most if not all of those items are ownership based.

DBacks fans do want a new ownership.


EDIT: Realized your last sentence may have referred to the Coyotes.

Hard to prove anything when you've been owned by a covey of groups who weren't serious about building the platform. And that includes the league.

Yes my last sentence was about the Coyotes. My point is despite all the wrangling about the Diamondbacks stadium, and all the ups and downs you never see people saying the Diamondbacks should move because no one doubts that there are enough baseball fans in Arizona to support an MLB team.

 

[TheLegend]

Yes my last sentence was about the Coyotes. My point is despite all the wrangling about the Diamondbacks stadium, and all the ups and downs you never see people saying the Diamondbacks should move because no one doubts that there are enough baseball fans in Arizona to support an MLB team.

Part of that is the DBacks were home grown and it's original ties to Jerry Colangelo.

Also.... there's the distinct advantage that baseball is to the US as hockey is to Canada.

But there's also been a growing hatred for the majority owner of the franchise and his behavior. Getting to the World Series this year helped curb some of that.

 

[LPHabsFan]

Attractive businesses attract attractive owners. Regardless of what year we're talking about, there has never been stable ownership, because there have never been stable market viability, whether we're talking about the individual team, or when we include expanded projects (Westgate).

 

[Stumbledore]

I mean is this really noteworthy at this point? It's bordering on straight up George RR Martin level

If this was George RR Martin level it would have more nudity and a lot more beheadings.

 

[aqib]

Part of that is the DBacks were home grown and it's original ties to Jerry Colangelo.

Also.... there's the distinct advantage that baseball is to the US as hockey is to Canada.

But there's also been a growing hatred for the majority owner of the franchise and his behavior. Getting to the World Series this year helped curb some of that.

My point exactly.

 

[OG6ix]

That hasn’t been true in hockey in 50 years.

Basketball as a spectator sport was not big in Toronto when they expanded. As a collegiate / participation sport it was big. Now the game as a spectator sport has grown so much more with a NBA team in the area both as a spectator sport and in the grass roots.

 

[TheLegend]

Appears NE Phoenix next to Scottsdale is looking to be the landing spot.

(Believe it’s not paywalled)

New Coyotes arena site offers Meruelo Group 1 last chance

Coyotes president and CEO Xavier Gutierrez told PHNX Sports on Tuesday that the team expects to announce its chosen arena site by the end of the calendar

gophnx.com

 

[Shwan]

Here's a helpful map for people on where Coyotes fans are now at with the latest arena rumors now that "County Island" is apparently out.